Oso planning to go pro
I have to say that I honestly have no idea what the actual truth about our economy is presently. I have read various "leading" economists in several sources that have said one thing in the last 9 months, "changed their opinion", went back to their original prognostications, and now are taking about either a soft landing or a recession. I mean they honestly sound no different from Jim Cramer. All this said we seem to know that the dollar isn't going as far as it used to but at the same time the consumer spending and GDP have exceeded expectations. I have several questions: Do you trust these numbers as facts? Have economists become more political? Who do you actually believe? What exactly will determine Powell not raising interest rates anymore? Is your cost of living/overall expenses in your community more, less, or about the same as they were say a year ago?
GDP is still growing, inflation is still a bit high, wages are still growing, the labor market is still tight. What are you curious about?Anyone telling you they know the future of the economy is blowing smoke. If they knew, they'd be keeping it quiet and making big bucks. Economic forecasting is more akin to astrology than it is to meteorology. Like Warren Buffett said, “We think any company that has an economist has one employee too many.” Also, Buffett said, “I don’t pay any attention to what economists say, frankly. [...] You have all these economists with 160 IQs that spend their life studying it, can you name me one super-wealthy economist that’s ever made money out of securities? No.”This is the investing thread, not the economy thread. The economy thread got locked long ago on the Covid forum, maybe it's time to start one up again?
I trust the numbers, but not the analysis.
Why is Powell continuing to raise interest rates in your estimation? It seems to me there is a disconnect between wages increasing and overall expenses increasing. It sounds to me like you believe economists essentially Whistle Dixie and serve little purpose.
"inflation" is still up. Sure, but how much of that is profiteering?If we acknowledge profiteering is present, and, as demonstrated over and over, is the single greatest contributor to "inflation" then is the feds reaction likely to result in a recession?
Profiteering is always omnipresent in capitalism. Inflation is oftentimes caused by people agreeing that inflation is happening and prices raising to their expectations. If people were unwilling or unable to pay, then prices would not be rising.
Housing is up marginally.Car dealers are posting huge mark ups on cars they have.Eggs are back to $1.50 a dozen.Milk $2.79Gas just jumped from $3.30 to $3.70, but that is probably an oil exec with indigestion.Still some greedflation going on.Pretty much anyone who wants a job has one.Still a war in Ukraine.Still extreme weather in the wheat/corn belt.Still surprisingly high demand.So, Muggsy, yeah, I believe the numbers. And, as always, I believe there are and will be challenges and headwinds.
Warner Brothers Discovery ( WBD )has been a dog the last two years. Barbie has done well for them at The Box office yet the share price has not been impacted. No word yet of more Barbies in the pipeline. The company is heavily levered and has been going through a lot of operational cost cutting and restructuring . This is the kind of junk stock that can get legs if the bull market has legs . Stick has been bouncing around in the 12s . Although it did close above 13. I am long WBD as a pure speculation. There is no investment merit whatsoever.
We're not going to discuss the downgrade by Fitch?
From Seeking Alpha:The market reaction to Fitch's downgrade of U.S. debt reflects puzzlement over its timing, but indicates confidence that government securities and the dollar will remain safe havens. "We expect that after the initial negative reaction in markets, investors will largely disregard this move," said 22V Research's Kim Wallace, as there is no threat to the dollar reserve currency status and no roadblock to servicing debt.
https://twitter.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1686864960654106624?t=85M4FaUaBFhFnkqvmIW0uw&s=19
Market is down today, but one that started the day up after reporting surprisingly decent earnings: BUD. Strong growth overseas, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, helped offset declines in North America due to the Bud Light controversy. Looking ahead, BUD maintained its 2023 forecast that EBITDA would grow in line with its medium-term outlook of between 4% and 8%.Good turnaround plays often come from stocks that have been troubled by short-term "noise." As others have pointed out, though, BUD was a lousy performer long before its most recent woes, and I'm not interested in owning the stock. (FWIW, I already have STZ in that industry.)
Alt right onion. Classy.
Taking the politics out of it completely, I never really bought the "LOL look at the stock price" as a good argument for the Bud Light boycott. Any stock price movement was purely negative press and PR fueled. Which can drive marketing and perception changes.But as for the actual financials, Bud Light does in the range of $6-7B in retail sales annually. Now AB InBev sells through distributors, so their Bud Light actual revenue is obviously lower. AB InBev does close to $60B in revenue globally. Even if their Bud Light sales completely evaporated (which it never would), it wasn't going to drive a 10/15/25% share decline on a go forward basis. They are by far the most dominant beer brand global with a HUGE portfolio. It was never going to cripple them. The majority of people boycotting Bud Light, if actually beer drinkers, were still probably buying other ABInBev products without realizing it