MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: 1SE on December 21, 2022, 04:52:15 AM
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Lots of positive things about Shaka - great guy, building a good culture, putting in place (and recruiting to) a clear system that, when it works, brings about some incredible results (Baylor).
That said, there also appears to be a troubling trend developing of Shaka just not getting it done in close games. We're now 0-4 in games decided by 5pts or less (or OT) this year and haven't one a close one since @Nova on Jan 19th (although Shaka started his MU career 5-1 in close ones). Of course the upside of that is we haven't lost a game by more than 5 pts this year, but still...
Is the current streak an anomaly, or is Shaka just not that good (or getting worse) at winning these "chess match" games?
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I will make completely contradictory points.
1. Three freshmen, three sophomores, three juniors.
2. That zone was really good, except for the rebounding.
3. Shaka's winning percentage at Texas was nearly identical to Wojo's.
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i think he's been really, pretty good and was starting to believe he had the ability to be the "anti-wojo" when it came time to close out games when we had the lead.
you can't really count wisconsin as we never really had the lead as that one it was largely a back and forth affair. but after the georgia tech, baylor, NCCU, notre dame and creighton games, i was starting to get into a comfort zone. then the last 10 minutes of providence shattered that, however-
the refs completely took us out of play. typically one gets the idea of how the refs are going to call a game based on, well, their calls. what are they going to allow? seemed like we were the "ugly sister" to the refs. providence had one guy with 4 fouls, one with 3 and hopkins should be giving a clinic on how to get away with assault in while everyone is watching. free throws attempted 49-19?? we fouled out 3 guys with three more at 4 fouls each?? total fouls 30-17??
yes, we should still have won that game, but we were playing against 6 or 7. that forced us to play tentative and/or not as aggressive as we could have. downplay the foul calling discrepancy all you want, but it played a huge role in taking us out of our game. hopefully there will be some letters written to the big east so this doesn't happen again...to us
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I’ll let you know my final answer this March.
Very good in game coach, his substitution patterns are often elite and he usually has a very good pulse of the game at all times, gets the most out of his guys more often than not.
That said, end of the game and big game execution are different than overall game and season-to-season execution.
In his 13 season as an NCAA coach his teams have made the NCAA tournament 9 times.
He won the CBI his first season as coach at VCU and won the NIT at Texas one season.
He had the Final 4 that everyone knows about.
The bad news is that in each of his last 5 trips to the dance his team has been eliminated in the first game.
Bad loss against Abilene Christian and bad loss against UNC the most recent.
He has to get off the schneid personally as much as Marquette has to get off the schneid as a program.
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Is it coaching or not having clutch players, which resulted in our losses.
I think the Purdue loss is on Shaka. we were up 7 or 9, when Purdue called a timeout. Shaka subbed in Gold, Ross and Sean Jones and we quickly loss the momentum and lead.
I did not like trying a long pass against UW at the end of the game. However, as we saw last night dribbling the ball up the floor to take the last shot may not work either. I would have done what Shaka did last night. Give the ball to Sean Jones to rush it up court (especially, since he is the fastest player Shaka has ever had).
I sure Shaka did not tell Sean to do the behind the back dribble before he forced up a shot. Against UW Shaka made the wrong decision. Against providence Shaka made the right decision. However, Sean Jones did not make the clutch play. We lost to Providence, because we missed a lot of key three-point shots.
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Two weeks ago, Shaka was a "Maestro".
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Shaka is fine. MU lost their conference road opener in double OT.
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Two weeks ago, Shaka was a "Maestro".
Bring Brian Wardle home
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It appears the poll should be:
How would you rank Shaka’s end of the game, close score coaching.
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Shaka is fine. MU lost their conference road opener in double OT.
Exactly. That is why you wait until end of February to see what MU is ranked, how did the coach do, which player is leaving for NBA, etc.
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I didn't hate what Shaka did...every time Providence went to the hoop they drew a foul down the stretch. It looked like Shaka wanted to iso some guys who he knew would be able to score if the refs were going to call it that way. 19-49 in the FT category...when MU outscoed Providence 62-42 in the paint is tough.
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If the standard for a close game is 5 points (Purdue) or OT, then Shaka went 5-3 last season in close games.
Did he suddenly forget how to coach in close games? Or is that how the cookie crumbles some times?
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If the standard for a close game is 5 points (Purdue) or OT, then Shaka went 5-3 last season in close games.
Did he suddenly forget how to coach in close games? Or is that how the cookie crumbles some times?
Three freshmen, three sophomores, three juniors.
Morsell, Kuath, Greg.
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If the standard for a close game is 5 points (Purdue) or OT, then Shaka went 5-3 last season in close games.
Did he suddenly forget how to coach in close games? Or is that how the cookie crumbles some times?
Yes. Porter Moser wins that game last night. Facts
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He absolutely should have used a timeout at some point in that drought at the end of regulation. No question.
But when your other PG is a true freshman, this can happen when Tyler loses his head. Did the same thing against Miss. St.
He's gotta see it, call a timeout, and try to get these guys back grounded when adversity hits late.
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If you win too many close games you are lucky.
If you lose too many close games you are a bad in-game coach.
You need to win exactly 50% of them.
Pretty simple.
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If you win too many close games you are lucky.
If you lose too many close games you are a bad in-game coach.
You need to win exactly 50% of them.
Pretty simple.
And then you are a genius expert
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Lots of positive things about Shaka - great guy, building a good culture, putting in place (and recruiting to) a clear system that, when it works, brings about some incredible results (Baylor).
That said, there also appears to be a troubling trend developing of Shaka just not getting it done in close games. We're now 0-4 in games decided by 5pts or less (or OT) this year and haven't one a close one since @Nova on Jan 19th (although Shaka started his MU career 5-1 in close ones). Of course the upside of that is we haven't lost a game by more than 5 pts this year, but still...
Is the current streak an anomaly, or is Shaka just not that good (or getting worse) at winning these "chess match" games?
I voted that Shaka failed his first test.
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In games decided by 5 points or less:
- Ed Cooley is 71-29 or 71%
- Shaka Smart is 64-69 or 48%
Shaka and staff need to improve their situational game. He is a system coach, is great on substitution patterns, but the situational anchor has travelled with him. 29-28 at VCU, 30-35 at Texas and 5-6 at MU. Consistently meh average for a coach who has a lifetime .654 winning percentage.
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In-game is not just the last 5 minutes of regulation and OT. This had all the trademarks of a Wojo blowout loss when PC stretched the lead to double digits late in the first half. Shaka's In-game adjustments got us on a run to keep it close at half. Yes he was poor down the stretch, but we don't even get to that point if he wasn't good-to-great at earlier points in the game.
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In games decided by 5 points or less:
- Ed Cooley is 71-29 or 71%
- Shaka Smart is 64-69 or 48%
Shaka and staff need to improve their situational game. He is a system coach, is great on substitution patterns, but the situational anchor has travelled with him. 29-28 at VCU, 30-35 at Texas and 5-6 at MU. Consistently meh average for a coach who has a lifetime .654 winning percentage.
Nice data
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Shaka has the opportunity and the budget to bring in great assistant coaches to help with his weaknesses. Hopefully Shaka brings in his own version of coach Wainwright.
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Shaka has the opportunity and the budget to bring in great assistant coaches to help with his weaknesses. Hopefully Shaka brings in his own version of coach Wainwright.
What was Tom Creans games decided by 5 or less record?
They seem to have a solid relationship…
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I'm not overly worried about Shaka's in-game here. He's 45 and just getting things going. Everyone talks about Cooley in close games, but he was 10-10 in his first two years at Providence in games decided by 5 or fewer. I think Shaka's above average but not a finished product. And in terms of NET, better to lose close and win big than the opposite.
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He absolutely should have used a timeout at some point in that drought at the end of regulation. No question.
But when your other PG is a true freshman, this can happen when Tyler loses his head. Did the same thing against Miss. St.
He's gotta see it, call a timeout, and try to get these guys back grounded when adversity hits late.
This pretty much sums up the issue. Needed to stop Prov run in regulation. 9 point lead with 5 plus to go. You need to win those. No OT. The rest of the coaching and in game stuff was good. We are working an offense that gets us open shots. And we scored in the paint at will almost. All good. But yeah. A TO would have been welcomed those last 5-6 minutes in regulation.
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Team is prone to 6, 7 minute scoring droughts. Not seeing set plays…isolation in the paint for Omax or Oso, or running off screens for a shooter, to break that. Doesn’t seem Shaka’s personality to hammer on a ref when deserved. T’d-up last night might have been ok. But, I think a 3-1 start to the BE is in order.
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Shaka and staff need to improve their situational game. He is a system coach, is great on substitution patterns,
But I think that *is* his situational plan. He has a "system", likes to use multiple guys, but will reinforce the same fundamentals regardless of the situation. He's counting on the guys executing what he preaches every time down the floor (offense & defense). Not changing it just because it failed a few times. The polar opposite of Crean and his "playbook".
It's not a bad plan when it works (see, quickly running up the score), but as we've seen, all players are subject to droughts and breakdowns in executing the plan.
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In games decided by 5 points or less:
- Ed Cooley is 71-29 or 71%
- Shaka Smart is 64-69 or 48%
Shaka and staff need to improve their situational game. He is a system coach, is great on substitution patterns, but the situational anchor has travelled with him. 29-28 at VCU, 30-35 at Texas and 5-6 at MU. Consistently meh average for a coach who has a lifetime .654 winning percentage.
How many of those games were against "lesser" teams, where Cooley should have won by more than 5? How many times did they get blown out when they shouldn't have. There's a lot of nuance being missed by just using that stat.
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How many of those games were against "lesser" teams, where Cooley should have won by more than 5? How many times did they get blown out when they shouldn't have. There's a lot of nuance being missed by just using that stat.
Nuance has no place at scoop, come on
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But I think that *is* his situational plan. He has a "system", likes to use multiple guys, but will reinforce the same fundamentals regardless of the situation. He's counting on the guys executing what he preaches every time down the floor (offense & defense). Not changing it just because it failed a few times. The polar opposite of Crean and his "playbook".
It's not a bad plan when it works (see, quickly running up the score), but as we've seen, all players are subject to droughts and breakdowns in executing the plan.
Oh, I agree with that (his system is his situational gameplan as seen in the Wisconsin game when Shaka said they hadn't yet practiced an end of game play). But, I also agree he has historically been a below average coach over his career at three different schools in close games.
Some here have said it's my "agenda". Fine. But, this critique came with Shaka from Texas. The Big East is a round robin league. We are seeing the same pattern here. Keeping doing the same thing and expect better results? Or change? Time will tell.
#COLE
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How many of those games were against "lesser" teams, where Cooley should have won by more than 5? How many times did they get blown out when they shouldn't have. There's a lot of nuance being missed by just using that stat.
This stat was used to reflect one of two possession games where a coach can make a difference.
As to beating a spread, I am not a bettor but please investigate that. That may be interesting to many.
I do know overall, Shaka has a .622 winning record and Cooley has a .616. Identical unlike for "close games".
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Offense is 17th in the country in KenPom, with three games that had 5+ minute scoring droughts. They'll be fine.
Defense is the bigger limiting factor for this team. When they're not forcing turnovers it gets ugly on that end.
Shaka's trying to thread a needle with this group. They need to learn, need to do it themselves, but at what point do you intervene, particularly when you had a media timeout in there? He used his TOs at Mackey, didn't last night, same outcome.
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What was Tom Creans games decided by 5 or less record?
They seem to have a solid relationship…
Here it is (or as good as my quick glance allows me)
- Crean was 45-33 at MU, a 58% winning record in close games. 66% overall at MU
- Buzz was 30-27 by this standard (he had one year at 2-7]. 53% vs 67% overall at MU
- Wojo was 36-27 or 57%, the same as his overall
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"Cookie crumbles" is an outstanding use of words for describing Shaka ball at crunch time in close games...
If the standard for a close game is 5 points (Purdue) or OT, then Shaka went 5-3 last season in close games.
Did he suddenly forget how to coach in close games? Or is that how the cookie crumbles some times?
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How many of those games were against "lesser" teams, where Cooley should have won by more than 5? How many times did they get blown out when they shouldn't have. There's a lot of nuance being missed by just using that stat.
I was wondering this too so I looked (I also included OT games even if the final margin was over 5):
22-23: 2-1 against top 75 KP teams, 1-0 against sub-top-75
21-22: 8-2, 4-0
20-21: 4-3, 2-0
19-20: 5-2, 3-1
18-19: 2-3, 2-2
17-18: 4-3, 5-0
16-17: 5-2, 0-2
15-16: 8-0, 2-2 (2 losses were to Hank Ellenson!)
14-15: 5-2, 1-0
13-14: 3-4, 6-1
12-13: 2-3, 4-4
11-12: 1-2, 2-1
Total record vs. top 75 KP teams: 49-27 (64.4%)
Total record vs. sub 75 KP teams: 29-13 (69.0%)
His record is padded slightly by being in a lot more close games against teams he shouldn't be but a 64.4% winning percentage against good teams in close games is very good. Dude knows how to win close games.
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"Cookie crumbles" is an outstanding use of words for describing Shaka ball at crunch time in close games...
That was funny. It is also funny that after leading the fight against COLE last season, you have become the king of COLE. Be careful when fighting monsters lest you become one
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agree with you TAMU, until Shaka achieves something greater than a Wojo lead team, COLE will be hard to eliminate... I had high hopes for this team tnis year but the record in games that matter this year is not good...
That was funny. It is also funny that after leading the fight against COLE last season, you have become the king of COLE. Be careful when fighting monsters lest you become one
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In games decided by 5 points or less:
- Ed Cooley is 71-29 or 71%
- Shaka Smart is 64-69 or 48%
Shaka and staff need to improve their situational game. He is a system coach, is great on substitution patterns, but the situational anchor has travelled with him. 29-28 at VCU, 30-35 at Texas and 5-6 at MU. Consistently meh average for a coach who has a lifetime .654 winning percentage.
Pretty strong difference in means there.
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agree with you TAMU, until Shaka achieves something greater than a Wojo lead team, COLE will be hard to eliminate... I had high hopes for this team tnis year but the record in games that matter this year is not good...
Apparently Marquette hasn't won a game that mattered but still sits comfortably in the top 40 of every metric.
Do you believe the sh*t you post or is this some sort of performance?
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At a young age, Shaka has coached in 33 more close games than Cooley. Does Shaka coach his teams up or down to be in more close games?
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Point
What were your expectations for this season? Obviously they were quite lofty if you are disappointed with the progress of the team. I do not recall seeing any preseason prediction from you. As for me, they are right on pace on the 21 wins I predicted and believe they will win at least NCAA game this year. I had high expectations and they are better than I expected them to be.
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My expectations were along the lines of yours Goose. I just don't see happening after watching them stumble with late leads against Purdue and Providence and not being able to score against enough against Wisconsin (bad loss) and Miss State. Creighton has lost six in a row so tjats not much of a quality win. The Baylor game may be an aberration at this point. The "cookies crumbling" taste a lot like a Wojo team. I think now 19 wins is the ceiling on this team. We shall see...
Point
What were your expectations for this season? Obviously they were quite lofty if you are disappointed with the progress of the team. I do not recall seeing any preseason prediction from you. As for me, they are right on pace on the 21 wins I predicted and believe they will win at least NCAA game this year. I had high expectations and they are better than I expected them to be.
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My expectations were along the lines of yours Goose. I just don't see happening after watching them stumble with late leads against Purdue and Providence and not being able to score against enough against Wisconsin (bad loss) and Miss State. Creighton has lost six in a row so tjats not much of a quality win. The Baylor game may be an aberration at this point. The "cookies crumbling" taste a lot like a Wojo team. I think now 19 wins is the ceiling on this team. We shall see...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnXL-XSyZKo&t=11s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0tjt2oI_2M
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Point
If you felt 21 was the number, what did you have our record in the four games lost prior to the season? I thought we were going to be 1-3 in those games and felt we would win 21.
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Do you guys realize how close we are to being 13-0 and ranked in top 10 right now? At the end of the day, all a coach can do is give his team the best possible chance to get a win. I was not as over the moon about Shaka as most people when he was hired, but it's hard for me to say he hasn't met that standard. Our losses all could have gone either way, were against solid teams, and aside from Wisconsin were away from home. I'll take it and I like our chances in BE play.
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Do you guys realize how close we are to being 13-0 and ranked in top 10 right now? At the end of the day, all a coach can do is give his team the best possible chance to get a win. I was not as over the moon about Shaka as most people when he was hired, but it's hard for me to say he hasn't met that standard. Our losses all could have gone either way, were against solid teams, and aside from Wisconsin were away from home. I'll take it and I like our chances in BE play.
Meh.
If Marquette loses the last 18 games of the season like last night they'd be 9-22. Would we be saying, do you know how close we are to being 31-0!?!
They aren't close to being 13-0 because they are 9-4 and all 4 of their losses have come in the same fashion. Leads late and collapse with no ability to end with the W.
Gotta find a way to be better than we have been.
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Miss St - W
Purdue - L
W is - W
Providence - L
2-2.
The issue is not losing the games, but the inability to execute at crunch time. In the BE, they will lose more than I expected originally cause they can't close out teams.
Point
If you felt 21 was the number, what did you have our record in the four games lost prior to the season? I thought we were going to be 1-3 in those games and felt we would win 21.
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well crap Tower, Shaka's Providence cookie crumble taste way worse than Wojo's
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnXL-XSyZKo&t=11s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0tjt2oI_2M
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Miss St - W
Purdue - L
W is - W
Providence - L
2-2.
The issue is not losing the games, but the inability to execute at crunch time. In the BE, they will lose more than I expected originally cause they can't close out teams.
I thought 9-11 to start the season and I think 8 or 9 wins is realistic.
They arent going to blow many, if any league teams out. Gotta be able to close.
Seton Hall is bringing in a borderline Top 20 defense that is looking for it's 1st league win. That one makes me incredibly nervous.
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well crap Tower, Shaka's Providence cookie crumble taste way worse than Wojo's
I hoped you would appreciate the joke.
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But I think that *is* his situational plan. He has a "system", likes to use multiple guys, but will reinforce the same fundamentals regardless of the situation. He's counting on the guys executing what he preaches every time down the floor (offense & defense). Not changing it just because it failed a few times. The polar opposite of Crean and his "playbook".
It's not a bad plan when it works (see, quickly running up the score), but as we've seen, all players are subject to droughts and breakdowns in executing the plan.
i completely agree with this.
He has/wants players, not a lot of plays.
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My expectations were along the lines of yours Goose. I just don't see happening after watching them stumble with late leads against Purdue and Providence and not being able to score against enough against Wisconsin (bad loss) and Miss State. Creighton has lost six in a row so tjats not much of a quality win. The Baylor game may be an aberration at this point. The "cookies crumbling" taste a lot like a Wojo team. I think now 19 wins is the ceiling on this team. We shall see...
Teams often improve. I mean, after we started the 2021-22 Big East season 0-3 (ending a 1-5 overall run for the team) did you "see happening" us winning 8 of our next 9 games?
We're better than we were last season, and the Big East is not as good. Try to be at least a little patient. a little optimistic, and a little less knee-jerk after any result you don't like.
Do you guys realize how close we are to being 13-0 and ranked in top 10 right now? At the end of the day, all a coach can do is give his team the best possible chance to get a win.
And this is at the other extreme. We lost those 4 games because we didn't play well enough at key junctures. And part of that was quite arguably the coach not always giving his team the best possible chance -- and I say that as a fan who really likes Shaka.
We're having a good season, and I'm optimistic that it will be a real good one before it's over. One thing I'm sure not gonna do is declare on Dec. 21 that we're doomed for mediocrity. There's a ton of ball still to be played -- and I think we'll have had a very nice season, including an NCAA bid (and hopefully a couple of NCAAT wins), before it's over.
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I thought 9-11 to start the season and I think 8 or 9 wins is realistic.
They arent going to blow many, if any league teams out. Gotta be able to close.
Seton Hall is bringing in a borderline Top 20 defense that is looking for it's 1st league win. That one makes me incredibly nervous.
Well now I’ve got to think about that elite defense for the entire week, thanks for nothin.
One of the things I forgot to mention that hasn’t gotten as much talk as it should-
The Big East as a conference is in GREAT hands going forward.
Shaka for one. Sean Miller and Thad Matta should be excellent additions to those programs.
Hurley, McDermott and Cooley are already doing amazing work.
I’d imagine Shaheen Holloway will have SH very competitive, they are already great defensively in year 1 and I believe that’s his calling card.
That’s 7 out of 11 in really really good hands going forward.
I’d call Mike Anderson an unknown at this point but he’s been good in the past and I think he rights the ship at StJ, wouldn’t be surprised if they danced this year.
Neptune is an unknown at a great program, so tbd.
The other two won’t make it.
Overall though some really well coached teams that will be a nightmare to face as long as their head coaches are in place, even this season.
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Well now I’ve got to think about that elite defense for the entire week, thanks for nothin.
One of the things I forgot to mention that hasn’t gotten as much talk as it should-
The Big East as a conference is in GREAT hands going forward.
Shaka for one. Sean Miller and Thad Matta should be excellent additions to those programs.
Hurley, McDermott and Cooley are already doing amazing work.
I’d imagine Shaheen Holloway will have SH very competitive, they are already great defensively in year 1 and I believe that’s his calling card.
That’s 7 out of 11 in really really good hands going forward.
I’d call Mike Anderson an unknown at this point but he’s been good in the past and I think he rights the ship at StJ, wouldn’t be surprised if they danced this year.
Neptune is an unknown at a great program, so tbd.
The other two won’t make it.
Overall though some really well coached teams that will be a nightmare to face as long as their head coaches are in place, even this season.
I believe they are 22 in KenPom for defense.
They have a bunch of able bodies and a ton of size. Maybe not much scoring but they have guys who could get hot and their defense is plenty good enough to beat any Big East team.
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Just did a little looking at Shaka's overall resume. Shaka is 305-159 as a head coach.
He has never won a regular season conference title.
He has won 3 conference tournaments. He won the NIT. He won the CBI. He's made it to a Final Four.
His teams are structured to compete in every game throughout a season, but they are built to play well in tournament settings. Hopefully this team proves to be just that.
Love where he has this group.
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Very solid in-game coach…. One of our best. Bottom line is, the schematic to get open shots generally works. But players need to make the shots. But overall, Shaka is very very good
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Smart is MU's best coach in years.
Impressive game. No shame here. We played tough but lost in a close game as predicted. Differential in fouls was enough to make the difference. We will beat them in Milwaukee.
Five areas to improve.
1) Practice shooting foul shots.
2) Build strength over the summer.
3) Be set before shooting threes.
4) More practice shooting threes.
5) Work on rebounding/blockouts.