US Economy thread

[Hards Alumni]

The solution is a little of both.
Only one presidential administration over the past 50+ years created a budget surplus. They did it by raising taxes on high-income earners (and well off Social Security recipients) AND cutting both social and defense spending.
It's a pretty obvious formula, except to every occupant of the White House since.

yep

[TSmith34, Inc.]

The latter sum in total amounts to just over half of what the US will spend in 2025 alone, much less the next decade.

This isn't meant to be for or against these particular cuts, just against the continued idea by some that the government can tax its way to a more balanced budget...instead of slashing bloated spending.  Saving $400B a year from the cuts wouldn't even fix a quarter of the deficit.   And contrary to what many believe or want to finger point on, reckless and bloated spending is very much a bipartisan problem.

I'd argue that closing a quarter of the deficit is a fine start, particularly as the effort amounts to nothing more than allowing the tax cuts to mercifully expire.

[JWags85]

I'd argue that closing a quarter of the deficit is a fine start, particularly as the effort amounts to nothing more than allowing the tax cuts to mercifully expire.

If the allowing the cuts to close ended nonsense discussions of wealth taxes, unearned gains taxes, and jacking up capital gains rates, then I'd be all for it (I mean I don't have much of an issue with letting them expire anyways, even though it would be to my detriment in a few ways). As well as a meaningful effort to reduce spending.  Alas I have a hunch that the savings would be earmarked for new spend as soon as they start to flow in

[MU82]

There is very little appetite to reduce spending. Fun to talk about, but that's about it.

[jesmu84]

If the allowing the cuts to close ended nonsense discussions of wealth taxes, unearned gains taxes, and jacking up capital gains rates, then I'd be all for it (I mean I don't have much of an issue with letting them expire anyways, even though it would be to my detriment in a few ways). As well as a meaningful effort to reduce spending.  Alas I have a hunch that the savings would be earmarked for new spend as soon as they start to flow in

I *think* the bolded are not as much attempts at balancing a budget but more attempts at wealth redistribution.

[tower912]

Yes.  For every unneeded tax cut, there is an expensive boondoggle.

[NCMUFan]

There is very little appetite to reduce spending. Fun to talk about, but that's about it.

Painfully obvious.  No one wants to jeopardize votes.
While the dollar may be strong against other currencies of the world.  Bottom line it doesn't purchase much.

[Goose]

I think it is going to be very interesting to see how big of role the economy comes election day. A lot can happen in six months, but I think the economy will end up be the deciding factor in November.

[Hards Alumni]

I think it is going to be very interesting to see how big of role the economy comes election day. A lot can happen in six months, but I think the economy will end up be the deciding factor in November.

I'm hopeful that that 25th amendment, as well as a prison sentence are bigger deciding factors.

[Goose]

Hards

I think we are going to see exactly how strong the economy is or is not. My opinion on the economy has been shared on here and I have been in the small minority with my thoughts. That said, I think if the election was today, we would have a new president 100% because of the state of the economy.

Will add, at this moment I do not want either guy as the next president and do not believe either can fix what I believe to be a very fragile economy.

[Hards Alumni]

Hards

I think we are going to see exactly how strong the economy is or is not. My opinion on the economy has been shared on here and I have been in the small minority with my thoughts. That said, I think if the election was today, we would have a new president 100% because of the state of the economy.

Will add, at this moment I do not want either guy as the next president and do not believe either can fix what I believe to be a very fragile economy.

Well your second thought was what I was getting at.  I think the country just needs to move on from both of these guys and the toxic environment that has been created.  But short of my hopes, I don't think we have a chance at reconciliation in the near future.

[rocky_warrior]

I find it amusing people use and/or distort "the economy" to match their political beliefs.  I had some friends last week pose the (silly) question of "Are you actually doing better than 4 years ago?"

2024: Yes.
2020: Yes.  This pandemic is a sh*t show though.
2016: Yes.
2012: Yes.
2008: Yes.
...

I've never encountered a president that significantly altered my personal economy.  They sure do like to wave their hands about it though.

[Goose]

rocky

How do you define better off for yourself? I define it by have I done better than the average person. Having more money but being on par with the masses is not better off, imo.

Now, I am guessing you feel the same way, but I think many people have been lulled into believing they are better off simply because their net worth went up. I know a lot of under 40 people that have a bigger next egg than 4, 8 or 10 years ago and their ability to buy a bigger house is lower than it was 10 years ago.

[Hards Alumni]

rocky

How do you define better off for yourself? I define it by have I done better than the average person. Having more money but being on par with the masses is not better off, imo.

Now, I am guessing you feel the same way, but I think many people have been lulled into believing they are better off simply because their net worth went up. I know a lot of under 40 people that have a bigger next egg than 4, 8 or 10 years ago and their ability to buy a bigger house is lower than it was 10 years ago.

Housing affordability is sort of a bad way to measure the economy.  I think we've discussed the reasons housing has exploded in price in the last twenty years.

[Uncle Rico]

I'm hopeful that that 25th amendment, as well as a prison sentence are bigger deciding factors.

As an evangelical Christian, I appreciate my presidents banging pornstars while their wife is home pregnant, runs their business even though they say they’ve divested and lie to the American people and hates immigrants.  If you am evangelical Christian like myself, the choice would be easy.

Also, I believe in Law and Order and more tax cuts for the rich.  Being a Christian demands I make more money than the average shmuck.

I’d like to see more support for Vladimir Putin who also is a Christian.

[Goose]

Hards

I agree. I guess buying power in general is a better way to judge. How about the ability to take a family of four to Disney World on vacation? IMO, if you can take a family vacation with less stress than four years, that is an accomplishment and you are better off

[jesmu84]

Hards

I agree. I guess buying power in general is a better way to judge. How about the ability to take a family of four to Disney World on vacation? IMO, if you can take a family vacation with less stress than four years, that is an accomplishment and you are better off

The problem I see with that is the amount of regulation (or deregulation), legislation and lobbying that is done on behalf of corporation and ultra wealthy interests far outweighs what is done for the average family of four.

And that's got nearly nothing to do with the president or their administration.

[Hards Alumni]

Hards

I agree. I guess buying power in general is a better way to judge. How about the ability to take a family of four to Disney World on vacation? IMO, if you can take a family vacation with less stress than four years, that is an accomplishment and you are better off

I'm not sure.  I think that single measurements like this will always be a pretty inaccurate way of knowing how strong the economy is.  I honestly don't know what the best way to measure the economy as a whole is.  Probably some combination of CPI, unemployment, wage growth, housing prices/construction, and GDP.  And even that is a macro way to look at things.  The economy of one city to another is going to vary to some degree.

Sometimes I think people look at the economy as sort of "vibes based", and depending on the political climate they are biased to think things are going better or worse than they actually are.  I prefer hard data, as always... but what exactly the criteria to measure is certainly up for debate.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I thought this was a good summary from CNBC.

https://youtu.be/O4qOE1U9I8o?si=4RxzVqJQWciU5WzQ

[Goose]

Hards

I guess you kind of hit on my point. Judging a Disney trip affordability is not a big picture view on the economy, but millions of families answering that question is a better perspective. My original post today is that I truly am interested in seeing how big of a role the economy plays in November.

Will say again, I do not think either guy is going to do the hard things to improve the overall economy. To be honest, if the economy plays little into the election it will prove to me that I was wrong on my views. I'd have zero problem admitting my opinion was wrong on the topic.

[MU82]

Goose, for several years now you've been talking about the economy teetering on the precipice of disaster.

You'll probable be right eventually, because there's always a next recession, but I'm sure glad I didn't change my investing style because 2 or 3 or 5 or 10 years ago I was worried about "the next big one."

We have full employment, companies are setting earnings records, AI is fueling a whole different kind of growth, the market is at an all-time high, inflation is still there obviously but it's growing more slowly, consumers are consuming bigly ... and yes, mommies and daddies are still paying the freight to take the kiddos to Disney World.

This isn't a perfect economy, but what is? Every president ever would be crowing about the current economy if it were under his watch.

None of which means disaster won't start tomorrow. If so, you'll get to say, "I told you so."

[rocket surgeon]

As an evangelical Christian, I appreciate my presidents banging pornstars while their wife is home pregnant, runs their business even though they say they’ve divested and lie to the American people and hates immigrants.  If you am evangelical Christian like myself, the choice would be easy.

Also, I believe in Law and Order and more tax cuts for the rich.  Being a Christian demands I make more money than the average shmuck.

I’d like to see more support for Vladimir Putin who also is a Christian.

   what about your presidents showering with their daughter?  does your evangelical high priest/priestess allow for this?   

[Uncle Rico]

   what about your presidents showering with their daughter?  does your evangelical high priest/priestess allow for this?

Absolutely.  Heck, we encourage using the pickup line some use on pornstars that go like this:

“You remind me of my daughter”

[Goose]

82

I think we have communicated on this topic via PM on several occasions and we probably agree more than we disagree. I do believe the fundamental principles of a sound economy have been lost since 9/11 and that is my opinion. To be honest, I highly, highly doubt we will ever see an economic disaster in my lifetime. Three times in my life, 9/11, Great Recession and pandemic the Fed and the government pulled out all stops to avoid economic disaster. That is enough of an education for me to feel comfortable that doomsday is not coming.

I have stated multiple times that my idea of how the USA economy is outdated and because of that, there is little chance for disaster happening. I have told you several times, I believe, that #1 I would not never want to say "I told you so" on this topic and #2 I very well may be 100% incorrect in my views.

Not that it swayed my opinion, but I was watching the Biden interview on CNN last night and he was challenged about his growing on the economy. That actually was why I made my OP today. Erin Burnett made it sound, to me, that maybe there was more crowing than merited.

Again, I am 60y and want the greatest economy for the next 20y for selfish reasons and never have hoped for a bad economy. I have this discussion with many family and friends and my BIL in finance is always a great person to talk with. As a rule, after laughing at my comments, will say that my premise is not wrong and might actually be right. That is followed by just because does not look right, does that mean it is not right. Ironically, while he is a fiscal conservative, he says his biggest regret was not borrowing as much free money as possible over the last ten years. He states that he did not because the 'it doesn't look right" mindset kept from pulling the trigger.

For the record, I hope I am proven wrong, and I'll gladly say I was flat out wrong. I think you know enough about me to know that I would love to say that. Biggest reason why, it is too important issue to want to be right about.

[rocket surgeon]

Hey, look at what's gonna be built on the Foxconn Boondoggle site - a great American company actually building an important American operation that will bring real training and real good-paying jobs to real Americans.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2024/05/08/microsoft-biden-to-highlight-major-boost-in-ai-training-in-wisconsin/73588095007/?

Microsoft plans a major expansion of artificial intelligence education and job training programs in southeast Wisconsin, along with a huge increase in its plans for a data center complex now under construction in Mount Pleasant.

Microsoft Corp. President Brad Smith will be joined by President Joe Biden in Racine County on Wednesday to highlight Microsoft's moves, which build upon the company's previous investments in the state.

  I don't believe you understand the foxcon project at all and no surprise it's been revised quite beautifully by you guys. 

  Scott walker had it set up such that foxconn would get no money unless they met certain hiring prerequisites, etc etc  well , they never did under walker and did not get paid a dime.  Uncle Tony however renegotiated the deal to lower the bar for foxconn



"it’s first worth noting that Wisconsin has not yet given Foxconn any money."

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/apr/30/tony-evers/gov-tony-evers-doesnt-tell-whole-story-claim-new-f/

 Microsoft would have never considered the mount pleasant area if not for it having been developed to promote/attract companies like foxconn