Bubble Watch

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

You have been all over the place the last few days. Attacking players, Wojo, the schedule makers.  Now you're all good?  I'd rather have you here in this frame of mind than the previous, but make up your mind laddie.

Actually i havent.  Before we even played seton hall a number of people were saying have no fear we are a lock.  Ive firmly said , no there could be a ton of bid stealers.  Thankfully that has not happened.  Uconn, alabama, etc , etc all have fallen off. Now i fell safe.
 And our achedule makers still sucked

[brewcity77]

Actually i havent.  Before we even played seton hall a number of people were saying have no fear we are a lock.  Ive firmly said , no there could be a ton of bid stealers.  Thankfully that has not happened.  Uconn, alabama, etc , etc all have fallen off. Now i fell safe.
 And our achedule makers still sucked

We were a lock before we played Creighton.

And you don't have a damn clue about the schedule or you could've answered one of the basic questions I posed.

[warriorstrack]

Stating the obvious, but that Nova win will have a HUGE impact on making the tournament, without that we are possibly first 4 out/in

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

We shouldn't worry about the bubble we are in i think

You change your mind every 20 minutes. Stick with something. It's a good habit.

[wadesworld]

Doew anyone sense the slowly Wheels coming off the wagon? I think the Cavalry needs to come to our rescue soon. Just saw the latest Lunardi hate sheet.

Hashtag @ScoopTakes.

[brewcity77]

I wonder when RPI changes fail to matter. As we watch teams like Creighton (back to top-25), Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and others have micro-effects on our RPI, does the committee even care with how fast things can change this week? Do they stop and say "wait, Marquette has three top-25 wins now, bump them up a line?"

This is more of why I don't think conference championship week matters as much as some think. My guess is they go with the RPI or computer rankings they have to start the week and stick with it, because making changes as hundreds of teams are playing is just ludicrous.

[muguru]

I wonder when RPI changes fail to matter. As we watch teams like Creighton (back to top-25), Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and others have micro-effects on our RPI, does the committee even care with how fast things can change this week? Do they stop and say "wait, Marquette has three top-25 wins now, bump them up a line?"

This is more of why I don't think conference championship week matters as much as some think. My guess is they go with the RPI or computer rankings they have to start the week and stick with it, because making changes as hundreds of teams are playing is just ludicrous.

I've wondered the same thing Brew, and remember the NCAA has their own RPI. But you do wonder where the "cut off" is as far as "locking it in". That would be fascinating to know, and I bet if anyone ever asked a committee chair that question they'd answer it.

[RushmoreAcademy]

Brennan put up his final bubble watch... thinks we are in: http://m.espn.com/ncb/bubblewatch?src=desktop

[brewcity77]

Is this the lease exciting bubble ever? Lunardi really has only 6 teams on the cut-line: Wake Forest, Syracuse, Kansas State, Rhode Island, USC, and Illinois State. If I'm the committee, I'm taking Wake Forest, Kansas State, Rhode Island, and USC. Wake and URI play into the West, K-State and USC into the East. If URI wins the A-10 Tourney, drop Vandy into their place due to 15 losses.

I know the thought process is that the committee loves Syracuse, but they have 3 bad losses (and unlike us, Georgetown and St. John's were at home), an awful RPI/SOS, mediocre computer numbers, and no wins away from home that are really worth anything (Clemson, meh). Though USC's resume isn't much more impressive, more wins but mostly against the terrible part of the Pac-12.

Some have tried to defend this bubble in recent days, saying how it's actually strong (Seth Davis) but come on...Syracuse, USC, and Illinois State? Those resumes, along with a 15-loss team being a lock indicates how bad it is.

[GGGG]

Soft bubble plus no real bid stealers means that you going to have some teams get in that would have had no shot in previous years.

[fjm]

Latest lunardi:

11 seed vs St Mary's, in Sacramento.

Winner likely plays Oregon.

That would be a fun line to be on!

[brewcity77]

Soft bubble plus no real bid stealers means that you going to have some teams get in that would have had no shot in previous years.

Yup. Usually, the part of the show I always look forward to is the outrage over the "screw-ups" the committee makes. But if USC, Syracuse, or Illinois State are left out, will anyone really be that upset other than their own fans?

I kind of think you have to take Wake and K-State. Rhode Island I think did enough based on their 2-1 top-25 record, 10-6 record away from home, and #24 NCSOS. For me it comes down to 3 teams for 1 spot, and I'm not sure it makes any real difference. No one will get snubbed because an undeserving team will automatically get in.

[jsglow]

Soft bubble plus no real bid stealers means that you going to have some teams get in that would have had no shot in previous years.

Agreed.  And those 'no previous shot' teams ought to be shipped off to Dayton.  I'm looking at YOU Vandy.  Be thankful that you get even that with your 15 losses.

[muguru]

Is this the lease exciting bubble ever? Lunardi really has only 6 teams on the cut-line: Wake Forest, Syracuse, Kansas State, Rhode Island, USC, and Illinois State. If I'm the committee, I'm taking Wake Forest, Kansas State, Rhode Island, and USC. Wake and URI play into the West, K-State and USC into the East. If URI wins the A-10 Tourney, drop Vandy into their place due to 15 losses.

I know the thought process is that the committee loves Syracuse, but they have 3 bad losses (and unlike us, Georgetown and St. John's were at home), an awful RPI/SOS, mediocre computer numbers, and no wins away from home that are really worth anything (Clemson, meh). Though USC's resume isn't much more impressive, more wins but mostly against the terrible part of the Pac-12.

Some have tried to defend this bubble in recent days, saying how it's actually strong (Seth Davis) but come on...Syracuse, USC, and Illinois State? Those resumes, along with a 15-loss team being a lock indicates how bad it is.

Honestly Brew, you bring up a great case AGAINST Syracuse to be included. However, if you compare them to Providence, Syracuse's computer #'s are better in every metric(BPI, Sagarin, KenPom) by a susbstantial margin, except RPI. PC also has more bad losses-3(below 100 RPI), then any team projected to be in the field. Both have losses against BC and SJU and PC has the loss to DePaul as well. Both are 6-8 against the RPI top 50. If you leave Cuse out(which I think you have to), then I think a strong argument can be made as well to leave Providence out(unless you are going STRICTLY on RPI). At the very least, I think PC is a strong candidate for Dayton.

[brewcity77]

Honestly Brew, you bring up a great case AGAINST Syracuse to be included. However, if you compare them to Providence, Syracuse's computer #'s are better in every metric(BPI, Sagarin, KenPom) by a susbstantial margin, except RPI. PC also has more bad losses-3(below 100 RPI), then any team projected to be in the field. Both have losses against BC and SJU and PC has the loss to DePaul as well. Both are 6-8 against the RPI top 50. If you leave Cuse out(which I think you have to), then I think a strong argument can be made as well to leave Providence out(unless you are going STRICTLY on RPI). At the very least, I think PC is a strong candidate for Dayton.

I could see PC in Dayton, but what kills Syracuse for me is that 2-11 mark away from home and the refusal to play anywhere outside of New York. They only played one non-con game outside the state of New York, the Wisconsin game they were assigned. Compare that to Providence, who went 5-9 away from the Dunk with two of those wins (Creighton and Marquette) coming on the road against tourney teams. Also, there's the obvious 20-12 v 18-14 comparison, with Providence having a better record against a tougher schedule (both NCSOS and total SOS). And Providence doesn't have more bad losses, Syracuse has three sub-100 losses and two of them (Georgetown, St. John's) were at home.

If any Big East team goes to Dayton, I agree that it should be Providence. I just don't think any of us should be in Dayton.

[Jay Bee]

I've wondered the same thing Brew, and remember the NCAA has their own RPI.

Huh? There is only 1 RPI. (Well, some orgs like ESPN try to calculate it, but screw up.. so there are mistake-RPIs too)

[Tower913]

Latest lunardi:

11 seed vs St Mary's, in Sacramento.

Winner likely plays Oregon.

That would be a fun line to be on!

That would be a dream scenario.  St. Mary's not overly physical, nor is Oregon, and Oregon lost major contributor Boucher.

Please tourney gods make this happen!

[nyg]

Just root for VCU.  They win and Rhode Island probably gets a play in game.  Rhode Island wins, then VCU moves down to like a 9/10, Rhode Island gets a non-play in game, then its a committee call who drops.  MU, X, Providence??

[muguru]

Roy Schmidt‏ @prepbullseye

IL St HC Dan Muller sounds very confident that his Redbirds will be playing an NCAA play-in game in Dayton. And they SHOULD be IMO.

[brewcity77]

Roy Schmidt‏ @prepbullseye

IL St HC Dan Muller sounds very confident that his Redbirds will be playing an NCAA play-in game in Dayton. And they SHOULD be IMO.

Bullseye is totally in the bag for ISU. I just don't see it. 1 top-50 win, 2-4 against the top-100, 2 bad losses. I mean, sure, they are 26-6, but 24 of those wins are against sub-100 teams.

I wouldn't be upset if they were in, but it would take a major shift from the committee. In recent years, they have looked more to teams with top-50 and top-100 wins when allowing teams with bad losses in. Maybe they edge out Syracuse or USC, but I don't think they have any right to be "very confident" of anything other than a home NIT game.

[forgetful]

Just root for VCU.  They win and Rhode Island probably gets a play in game.  Rhode Island wins, then VCU moves down to like a 9/10, Rhode Island gets a non-play in game, then its a committee call who drops.  MU, X, Providence??

Not necessarily, I'm not certain that all the teams you list aren't in front of at least Vanderbilt and maybe Michigan St. on the seed list.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Just root for VCU.  They win and Rhode Island probably gets a play in game.  Rhode Island wins, then VCU moves down to like a 9/10, Rhode Island gets a non-play in game, then its a committee call who drops.  MU, X, Providence??

Maybe....but VCU is only two spots higher than us on bracket matrix. Is a loss enough to move them down? My guy say no, but the committee is often unfriendly to the best teams from bad conferences, just look at Wichita State in the play in game last season.

[forgetful]

Maybe....but VCU is only two spots higher than us on bracket matrix. Is a loss enough to move them down? My guy say no, but the committee is often unfriendly to the best teams from bad conferences, just look at Wichita State in the play in game last season.

So either you are on the committee or you have some guys on the committee.  Hmmm, no wonder you got so much info.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So either you are on the committee or you have some guys on the committee.  Hmmm, no wonder you got so much info.

Lol. The y is right next to the t. My bad.

[brewcity77]

I'll be rooting for VCU because Rhode Island would definitely be in the mix for Dayton. Not necessarily the case with VCU.