Bubble Watch

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deserve a tourney in their careers

[BM1090]

Not really.

Assuming Creighton can hold an 11 point lead with 1:36 left, than Marquette will likely finish with 7 or 8 teams between them and the bubble.

Of those 7-8, 3 are "sitting ducks" (Providence, Wake, Cuse) meaning they have already lost and will drop out before Marquette does. 1 (USC) will also become a sitting duck if UCLA takes care of business.

Of the remaining 4-5, 1 (MTSU) can't pass Marquette because they'll either be an auto-bid or in Dayton.

3 of the First Four Out (Illinois State, Iowa, and Illinois) are all sitting ducks. They can't pass Marquette.

Its still going to take 3-4 bid thieves for Marquette to be left out. And there's really only 6 conferences that could steal a bid from Marquette at this point.

And even if that all happened....we'd still have a good chance.

[cheebs09]

SI has us at 9 after our loss.

[Benny B]

Starting to look really dire for Marquette so sad all the blown leads this year, on the other hand this senior class does not deserve a tourney in their careers

You know... it's only funny when you don't actually believe what you type.

[jsglow]

CTD just locked us.

https://crashingthedance.com/selection

[BM1090]

Put this in the Seeding hread but frankly I'm not sure where to post these thoughts any more, so here goes...

SI's update has us as a 9 seed.

So after yesterday's "disaster". ESPN didn't move us at all. SI didn't move us at all. Palm moved us down one spot.

And just to illustrate how hard it is to move up the bubble. Kansas State's win over Baylor moved them up ONE spot in his bracket, from first team out to last team in. Even with a win today they won't be head of us, although they will also probably be safely in the field.
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[wadesworld]

Put this in the Seeding hread but frankly I'm not sure where to post these thoughts any more, so here goes...

SI's update has us as a 9 seed.

So after yesterday's "disaster". ESPN didn't move us at all. SI didn't move us at all. Palm moved us down one spot.

And just to illustrate how hard it is to move up the bubble. Kansas State's win over Baylor moved them up ONE spot in his bracket, from first team out to last team in. Even with a win today they won't be head of us, although they will also probably be safely in the field.
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Yup.  While I think there are some people who underestimate what the conference tournaments do, there are a whole lot of worriers who don't understand that conference tournaments aren't weighted 10x what we did in the regular season.  Each game, regular season or conference tourney, is worth one game.  Our win over Nova is worth more than a KState win over Baylor, no matter when it happened (unless one of the teams involved had an injury or departure and their results took a hit as a result...but that's not the case).

We're dancing.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Yea, I remember being very worried in 2012 and 2013 that our poor conference tournament showing would drop us down to the 4/5 line.

Hell, in 2013 I didnt even think we had any chance for a 3 seed before the BE tournament let alone after it. But top flight wins matter. (Syracuse that year) I dont know where we land, I still personally think in the 10-11 range but I do think scoop tends to underseed ourselves.

[cheebs09]

I think in 2010 we thought our Big East Tourney performance put us safely in, and we were the last or second last team in.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I think in 2010 we thought our Big East Tourney performance put us safely in, and we were the last or second last team in.

Which actually kind of strengthens the point that we may put too much emphasis on the BE tourney.

[cheebs09]

Which actually kind of strengthens the point that we may put too much emphasis on the BE tourney.

Absolutely. We tend to play up tournament results since it's our last chance to build a resume, or hurt it. If you look at some of these wins in the context of the full resume, then it really lowers the impact.

[brewcity77]

Absolutely. We tend to play up tournament results since it's our last chance to build a resume, or hurt it. If you look at some of these wins in the context of the full resume, then it really lowers the impact.

Being so close to the cut line was one of the biggest factors in me starting to look at how much conference tournament games matter and becoming convinced they really don't mean squat unless you cut down nets. I don't think we were on the outside looking in and beating Providence and WVU put us over the top. We were in regardless, and didn't move an inch despite those games.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

In the first game of the season, a player's season 3P% swings wildly. If he makes his first it goes from 0 to 100%. If he then misses his second it goes from 100% to 50%. If he makes his next, it raises 16% to 66%.....by the end of the season, making a 3P shots is going to raise his season 3P% by like .001%.

Same applies to resumes. Its the end of the season. There's only so much 1 win can help you or 1 loss can hurt you. There is a much greater distance between teams than people realize.

[Coleman]

Lunardi has us as a 10 today, vs. 7 Oklahoma St.

Providence, MU, and Xavier are all last 4 byes (along with Vandy). No one from BEast playing in Dayton, with the conference getting 7 bids.

Nova 1
Butler 4
Creighton 7
Seton Hall 10
Providence 10
MU 10
Xavier 11

Things could change, but that would be a hell of a Selection Sunday for a 10 team conference.

[KampusFoods]

Dayton lost which is not great. SMU held on against ECU which is good.

[PGsHeroes32]

Dayton is garbage

Should be a bubble team

[EaglesNest]

Either Rhode Island, Davidson, or St. Bonneventure will be in the A10 Championship

[KampusFoods]

Dayton is garbage

Should be a bubble team

Looking at them led me to looking at VCU and I really do not get the VCU love (lunardi has them as a 9). 24-7 record, with their best wins at home vs MTSU and Dayton, and they lost to Fordham and Davidson. Their RPI is good but I am thoroughly unimpressed by their resume.

[brewcity77]

Dayton lost which is not great. SMU held on against ECU which is good.

With SMU up 43-21 at the half, I didn't even check in on that game until the last minute. Was shocked when I turned it on to see it tied. Glad SMU pulled it out, need them or Cincy to win that league.

Elsewhere, Michigan takes out Purdue in overtime, good for our RPI.

[EaglesNest]

Michigan just beat Purdue

[PGsHeroes32]

Well the A10 is stealing a bid if VCU loses

Even tho that whole league sucks

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Well, we should be VCU fans. 

[dw3dw3dw3]

Whomever wins wouldn't change MU's seed, I suppose RI could move up past MU, but doubtful. They will be stealing the Cuse/Vanderbilt/USC bid.

[PGsHeroes32]

Whomever wins wouldn't change MU's seed, I suppose RI could move up past MU, but doubtful. They will be stealing the Cuse/Vanderbilt/USC bid.

It's not our bid I'm worried about.

It's knocking us to the play in game.

They better make Dayton or VCU play there

[RJax55]

MTSU wins. Next is the CUSA Championship. Would be big for them to win the tourney and keep CUSA a one-bid league.