Bubble Watch

[muguru]

I don't think I am so much worried about getting in, it's being in Dayton i want no part of.

[Jay Bee]

Lunardi was just on my TV screen giving excuses for why a 15-loss team may make the tourney... "teams now play 31, 32 games before we even get to the conference tourney"... of course, teams CAN'T play 32. SMH, bad news.

[cheebs09]

Does Xavier/Butler matter to us? Butler winning keeps X behind us, but an X win could help legitimize our wins against them.

[Herman Cain]

Does Xavier/Butler matter to us? Butler winning keeps X behind us, but an X win could help legitimize our wins against them.

We want Xavier to win for the reasons cited. they just did.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

X may have just taken our bid.  These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional

[nyg]

X wins. Don't need them to win another to jump us.

Announcers said Butler has never won a BE tournament game.  Can't believe that. 

[forgetful]

X may have just taken our bid.  These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional

We swept them by an average margin of 15.5 pts.  We have double the number of top 50 wins as they do.  We be fine.

[Windyplayer]

X may have just taken our bid.  These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional

Ha, you are perpetually worried about our bid.

[Herman Cain]

I am not a fan of the guy who makes our schedule. We really needed that 31st game. Would have had 20 wins and been in a little better position. I don't buy the excuses. A good opponent could have been found.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

X may have just taken our bid.  These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional

Get a grip. If X just stole a bid it very likely wasn't ours.

[nyg]

Get a grip. If X just stole a bid it very likely wasn't ours.

Lunardi just said X is in and will probably jump them to next four byes, same category as MU. 

[forgetful]

Get a grip. If X just stole a bid it very likely wasn't ours.

If I were syracuse though, I'd be worried about X winning.  X just likely leap-frogged them. 

X would need to win the BE tournament to leap-frog us.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Lunardi just said X is in and will probably jump them to next four byes, same category as MU.

Got it. Not the same as stealing our bid though.

[forgetful]

Rooting for Creighton in this next one.

[Herman Cain]

Lunardi just said X is in and will probably jump them to next four byes, same category as MU.

That is a good data point. Now we need Creighton to edge Providence. Looking for the teams we beat to do well.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

X may have just taken our bid.  These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional

Sigh.

X winning is not ideal true. But they are not the ones we need to worry about. Again, making the tournament is not about outrunning the bear. It is about outrunning your slowest friend. The slowest friend we need to beat out is the teams in the First Four Out. As of this morning, that was Illinois State, Kansas State, Iowa, and Illinois. What do three of those teams have in common? They already lost in their conference tournament meaning they can't play themselves in anymore. If Baylor completes the sweep and takes out Kansas State, the entire first four out will be stuck on the wrong side of the bubble. That means that the Next Four Out will be the ones that have to rise up and win enough games to pass Marquette. As of this morning, that group was Houston, California, Georgia, and Clemson. Clemson is already dead. Houston doesn't play in a good enough conference to win their way in without getting an auto-bid. Cal would have to beat Oregon and even then they would likely need to win one more to pass Marquette....which would make them an auto-bid. And Georgia lost to Marquette head to head. They could theoretically pass Marquette but it would be close and that's a huge advantage in our corner.

So again, barring a crap ton of bid thieves.....7 is max possible at this point (and 1 of those 7 assumes MTSU would even get an at large if they lose)....Marquette is still in the tournament.

[muguru]

So if X was one of the last four in, and have moved from that spot...someone has to take their spot..Ugh, this is why I wanted MU to get that #3 seed so badly..matchups were so much better in that half of the bracket. I would have loved their chances to get to saturday night. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I am not a fan of the guy who makes our schedule. We really needed that 31st game. Would have had 20 wins and been in a little better position. I don't buy the excuses. A good opponent could have been found.

It would have been against a low major that would have hurt our RPI. Total wins no matta.

Besides, you think Illinois is getting in over us and they only have 17 wins.

[Herman Cain]

Sigh.

X winning is not ideal true. But they are not the ones we need to worry about. Again, making the tournament is not about outrunning the bear. It is about outrunning your slowest friend. The slowest friend we need to beat out is the teams in the First Four Out. As of this morning, that was Illinois State, Kansas State, Iowa, and Illinois. What do three of those teams have in common? They already lost in their conference tournament meaning they can't play themselves in anymore. If Baylor completes the sweep and takes out Kansas State, the entire first four out will be stuck on the wrong side of the bubble. That means that the Next Four Out will be the ones that have to rise up and win enough games to pass Marquette. As of this morning, that group was Houston, California, Georgia, and Clemson. Clemson is already dead. Houston doesn't play in a good enough conference to win their way in without getting an auto-bid. Cal would have to beat Oregon and even then they would likely need to win one more to pass Marquette....which would make them an auto-bid. And Georgia lost to Marquette head to head. They could theoretically pass Marquette but it would be close and that's a huge advantage in our corner.

So again, barring a crap ton of bid thieves.....7 is max possible at this point (and 1 of those 7 assumes MTSU would even get an at large if they lose)....Marquette is still in the tournament.

In the meantime we want Creighton to beat Providence.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

In the meantime we want Creighton to beat Providence.

Correct.

[nyg]

Got it. Not the same as stealing our bid though.

X loses and they are probably out

Now X is in first byes.  They win again tomorrow, they seal first bye and no Dayton. 

With MU loss and X doing above, puts MU in danger of playing in Dayton, not losing bid. 

Root for Creighton next.  Providence still in first bye right now. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

X may have just taken our bid.  These people that feel we are safe with everyone else winning are delusional

No, you are delusional. Please list off the 68 teams that will make it instead. K thanks.

[jesmu84]

For those who think we still won't make it, care to make a bet?

[muguru]

No, you are delusional. Please list off the 68 teams that will make it instead. K thanks.

Jamil, serious question, if that win moved Xavier off the "last four in" and in Dayton...someone needs to slip down and replace them..What if that is MU?? How close is MU to falling into Dayton, ASSUMING they aren't already there??

[Herman Cain]

For those who think we still won't make it, care to make a bet?

After this Xavier win I am in the make it camp.