Bubble Watch

[Windyplayer]

Providence punched their ticket last night. 9 Big East wins will be enough. Losing to St John's isn't at all disastrous.

Perhaps, but if other bubble teams go on mini-runs and PC loses to SJU they could very well find themselves on the outside looking in. Let's not forget that it would be their second loss to SJU this year.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

It's all about that 3 seed for the BE tourney. I know the prevailing theme is conference standings mean nothing but in leagues that do the double round robin it does I believe past committees have said as much.

Well the 3 seed means we win the next 2, so I'm all for that! Assuming we go 9-9, I don't think the 4-6 seeds matter much. I would love another shot at PC in the first round at MSG, however.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Here is one thing that nobody has said. What happens in Hartford in the AAC Conference Tourney if SMU or Cincinnati doesn't win. There goes one spot at-large pool.. What happens if Dayton or VCU don't win the Atlantic 10 Conference Tourney. There goes another spot at-large spot.

Wichita State in the MVC and Middle Tennessee State in Conf. USA. Those could be at-large schools. If all that happens there goes FOUR bids at-large bids.

Things will be much better if MU goes 10-8 in the Big East.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Here is one thing that nobody has said. What happens in Hartford in the AAC Conference Tourney if SMU or Cincinnati doesn't win. There goes one spot at-large pool.. What happens if Dayton or VCU don't win the Atlantic 10 Conference Tourney. There goes another spot at-large spot.

Wichita State in the MVC and Middle Tennessee State in Conf. USA. Those could be at-large schools. If all that happens there goes FOUR bids at-large bids.

Things will be much better if MU goes 10-8 in the Big East.

Oh for sure.  1 or 2 of those will happen. 

Could add Illinois State in the MVC as well.  Houston in the AAC. Rhode Island in the A10. Middle Tennessee would have a shot at an at large, but probably needs to win their tournament to feel safe.  Not to mention teams that are eliminated from at larges in the P6 like Texas Tech, Texas or Oklahoma in the B12, Georgetown or SJU in the BE, Indiana, or Iowa in the B10, pretty much anyone not named Oregon, Arizona, or UCLA in P12.  MU fans and other teams around the bubble should definitely be rooting for the top dogs to win their tournaments.   

[MUMountin]

Here is one thing that nobody has said. What happens in Hartford in the AAC Conference Tourney if SMU or Cincinnati doesn't win. There goes one spot at-large pool.. What happens if Dayton or VCU don't win the Atlantic 10 Conference Tourney. There goes another spot at-large spot.

Wichita State in the MVC and Middle Tennessee State in Conf. USA. Those could be at-large schools. If all that happens there goes FOUR bids at-large bids.

Things will be much better if MU goes 10-8 in the Big East.

That is definitely the biggest risk--if there are any bid stealers from those conferences you mentioned or some team below us on the bubble has a major run and wins their major conference championship.  As each happens, that is one less spot for wiggle room.  Which is definitely why two would be much more comfortable, although I still believe that one gets it done, given the way every other bubble team has struggled the same as us.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tonight's bubble action:

Auburn @ Georgia

Michigan @ Northwestern (both teams likely safe, but we should root for Michigan here)

Rhode Island @ St. Joes

Michigan State @ Illinois

Louisville @ Wake Forest

K State @ TCU

Marquette @ Xavier

Washington State @ USC



Fringe Games (long shots at best for at-larges at this point):

Tennessee @ LSU

Ole Miss @ Alabama

Texas @ Texas Tech

Nevada @ San Jose State

[BM1090]

Tonight's bubble action:

Auburn @ Georgia

Michigan @ Northwestern (both teams likely safe, but we should root for Michigan here)

Rhode Island @ St. Joes

Michigan State @ Illinois

Louisville @ Wake Forest

K State @ TCU

Marquette @ Xavier

Washington State @ USC



Fringe Games (long shots at best for at-larges at this point):

Tennessee @ LSU

Ole Miss @ Alabama

Texas @ Texas Tech

Nevada @ San Jose State

I would say biggest ones for us tonight are Michigan State and Louisville. If Illinois and Wake Forest pick up home losses, they are probably done. In WF's case, chance to pick up a huge win and give their resume the one thing it's missing -- a signature win.

USC losing would put them in real trouble. Michigan win would be good for RPI, since they are safe anyways. I'm torn on whether I want Georgia to win or lose. A loss would eliminate them, but a win and they have a real chance at top 50 RPI

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I would say biggest ones for us tonight are Michigan State and Louisville. If Illinois and Wake Forest pick up home losses, they are probably done. In WF's case, chance to pick up a huge win and give their resume the one thing it's missing -- a signature win.

USC losing would put them in real trouble. Michigan win would be good for RPI, since they are safe anyways. I'm torn on whether I want Georgia to win or lose. A loss would eliminate them, but a win and they have a real chance at top 50 RPI

Yep.  Probably be fine with Georgia winning this game.  Even with Georgia win and Marquette loss tonight, I still think we're ahead of Georgia in the pecking order. 

[forgetful]

Compiled a general list of bubble teams, not all-inclusive.  I leave out Wake, because if they don't win against Louisville they are likely done and right now would be out.  By my count four of the teams on this list will not make it.  The rest get in.  The AVG is the average of RPI and KP. 

Team	Conf.	Season	RPI	KP	Avg
Illinois State	17-1	25-5	34	45	40
Houston	11-5	20-8	52	39	46
Rhode Island	11-5	19-9	44	53	49
Cal	10-6	19-9	51	47	49
Marquette	8-8	17-7	72	32	52
USC	8-8	21-8	39	67	53
Seton Hall	9-8	19-10	49	58	54
Nevada	12-4	23-6	43	65	54
Providence	9-8	19-11	55	56	56
Syracuse	9-8	17-13	79	51	65
Ole Miss	9-7	18-11	71	77	74
Georgia Tech	8-9	17-13	91	76	84

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Compiled a general list of bubble teams, not all-inclusive.  I leave out Wake, because if they don't win against Louisville they are likely done and right now would be out.  By my count four of the teams on this list will not make it.  The rest get in.  The AVG is the average of RPI and KP. 

Team	Conf.	Season	RPI	KP	Avg
Michigan	9-7	19-10	47	27	37
Illinois State	17-1	25-5	34	45	40
Houston	11-5	20-8	52	39	46
Rhode Island	11-5	19-9	44	53	49
Marquette	8-8	17-7	72	32	52
USC	8-8	21-8	39	67	53
Seton Hall	9-8	19-10	49	58	54
Nevada	12-4	23-6	43	65	54
Providence	9-8	19-11	55	56	56
Syracuse	9-8	17-13	79	51	65
Ole Miss	9-7	18-11	71	77	74
Georgia Tech	8-9	17-13	91	76	84

To me, seems pretty obvious you leave Houston, Nevada, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech out.  Rhode Island and Illinois State last two teams in at the moment.  USC, Cuse and Marquette in the next grouping. 

Cal should probably be somewhere in that grouping as well.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Marquette still safe as the 5th team in (first bye) on today's Bracketmatrix update.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[BM1090]

To me, seems pretty obvious you leave Houston, Nevada, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech out.  Rhode Island and Illinois State last two teams in at the moment.  USC, Cuse and Marquette in the next grouping. 

Cal should probably be somewhere in that grouping as well.

Kansas State, Wake Forest and TCU, Illinois should all be on there as well

[BM1090]

Marquette still safe as the 5th team in (first bye) on today's Bracketmatrix update.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

In the field in 112/124 (90.3%) brackets

[forgetful]

To me, seems pretty obvious you leave Houston, Nevada, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech out.  Rhode Island and Illinois State last two teams in at the moment.  USC, Cuse and Marquette in the next grouping. 

Cal should probably be somewhere in that grouping as well.

For the purposes here I included Cal as safely in.  I had 28 teams safely in these were the next 12. 

I exclude Kansas State and TCU since they have to win out to just make it to 2 games under .500.  Right now they would be in the next four and really don't think they can make it in...not impossible but difficult.  Similar for Wake and Illinois.  They would be well out at this point and need to do work to be considered.

That's why we really need to win 1-more.  If not we end up in the category with those 2-games under .500 group.

[Babybluejeans]

Sports Illustrated is updating their Bubble Watch every day from here on out. There's more about MU and the Big East in today's post but didn't want to pull a Heisy and post all of it. Still, here's the narrative for tonight's game:

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/27/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch

"These teams are on the bubble, but they’re in better shape than both Kansas State and TCU. Marquette owns wins over Villanova and Creighton, while Xavier has three top-50 wins and strong marks in both RPI (27) and on kenpom.com (39). It’s more likely than not that both of these teams hear their names called on Selection Sunday, regardless of what happens in Cincinnati on Wednesday. The winner, however, will brush right up against lock territory."

[GoldenDieners32]

Sports Illustrated is updating their Bubble Watch every day from here on out. There's more about MU and the Big East in today's post but didn't want to pull a Heisy and post all of it. Still, here's the narrative for tonight's game:

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/27/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch

"These teams are on the bubble, but they’re in better shape than both Kansas State and TCU. Marquette owns wins over Villanova and Creighton, while Xavier has three top-50 wins and strong marks in both RPI (27) and on kenpom.com (39). It’s more likely than not that both of these teams hear their names called on Selection Sunday, regardless of what happens in Cincinnati on Wednesday. The winner, however, will brush right up against lock territory."

This is a HUGE game

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

For the purposes here I included Cal as safely in.  I had 28 teams safely in these were the next 12. 

Why is Cal safely in? They are currently listed as Last Four In per bracketmatrix.

Can't just look at Ws and Ls. Gotta look at who those Ws and Ls are against. Cal's best win is against USC (RPI 38). Their second best win is Princeton!

[forgetful]

Why is Cal safely in? They are currently listed as Last Four In per bracketmatrix.

Can't just look at Ws and Ls. Gotta look at who those Ws and Ls are against. Cal's best win is against USC (RPI 38). Their second best win is Princeton!

I should have included them. I should have left Michigan off (a lock) and had Cal on the list (swapped the two now).  Like I said, not a perfect list.  The key things is we should be rooting for Houston and Rhode Island to lose and to not see any unexpected winners in the A10 or AAC tournaments.

My thought was that it would be unlikely for the committee to skip over both Cal and Utah to let USC in.  They also have two very winnable road games to finish off the season, and figured if they win at least 1 of 2.  I think if they do that, at least 4 PAC12 teams are in and they are likely a lock, barring an embarrassing defeat in the conference tournament. 

If they lose both, they are likely out. 

I'd also love to see USC lose one of their remaining games.  Either would be a bad loss and would make it easier for the committee to say, only 3 PAC12 teams deserve to be in.

[MU82]

Sports Illustrated is updating their Bubble Watch every day from here on out. There's more about MU and the Big East in today's post but didn't want to pull a Heisy and post all of it. Still, here's the narrative for tonight's game:

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/02/27/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch

"These teams are on the bubble, but they’re in better shape than both Kansas State and TCU. Marquette owns wins over Villanova and Creighton, while Xavier has three top-50 wins and strong marks in both RPI (27) and on kenpom.com (39). It’s more likely than not that both of these teams hear their names called on Selection Sunday, regardless of what happens in Cincinnati on Wednesday. The winner, however, will brush right up against lock territory."

I agree with SI here.

I have scouted out my spot on Kauai to watch tonight's game - 4 p.m. time here. Me, the missus, my daughter and her man will be turning some sleeping little bar into Marquette central!!!

[BM1090]

I agree with SI here.

I have scouted out my spot on Kauai to watch tonight's game - 4 p.m. time here. Me, the missus, my daughter and her man will be turning some sleeping little bar into Marquette central!!!

After the big win, I'll be living through you vicariously while you celebrate.

[Herman Cain]

I agree with SI here.

I have scouted out my spot on Kauai to watch tonight's game - 4 p.m. time here. Me, the missus, my daughter and her man will be turning some sleeping little bar into Marquette central!!!

Yes definitely make sure you all watch the game. We lost the last game because you did not watch it because you were traveling. We need to reverse that karma. Thank You.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Here is one thing that nobody has said. What happens in Hartford in the AAC Conference Tourney if SMU or Cincinnati doesn't win. There goes one spot at-large pool.. What happens if Dayton or VCU don't win the Atlantic 10 Conference Tourney. There goes another spot at-large spot.

Wichita State in the MVC and Middle Tennessee State in Conf. USA. Those could be at-large schools. If all that happens there goes FOUR bids at-large bids.

Things will be much better if MU goes 10-8 in the Big East.

Izzaklee

[MU82]

Yes definitely make sure you all watch the game. We lost the last game because you did not watch it because you were traveling. We need to reverse that karma. Thank You.

I take full blame. And tonight I'll take full credit!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Georgia sucks

[BM1090]

Georgia sucks

Perhaps I am missing context, but they won