Bubble Watch

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Last bye in today's Bracket Matrix update. 

http://bracketmatrix.com/

Still in 102 of 113 bracket projections. 

[BM1090]

Yah, but I guarantee you it won't end up that way.  They'd bump their favorite of the three BE teams up to an 11 and bye.  They won't do a conference matchup in the first four, tho I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 BE teams in Dayton, but in separate matchups.   

If any of SHU, PC and/or MU finish 10-8, they won't be playing in Dayton.

Agree. The only exception is if they truly believe the Big East has the last 3 teams in, they should just play the rematch instead of bumping a team up and penalizing a "more deserving" team.

Bracket Matrix update: 44/51 brackets updated today have us in the tournament. We are in 102/113 projected brackets total.

For comparison, Rhode Island is the first team out. They are in 39/113 projected brackets.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Agree. The only exception is if they truly believe the Big East has the last 3 teams in, they should just play the rematch instead of bumping a team up and penalizing a "more deserving" team.

Bracket Matrix update: 44/51 brackets updated today have us in the tournament. We are in 102/113 projected brackets total.

For comparison, Rhode Island is the first team out. They are in 39/113 projected brackets.

Of the one's we weren't in that were updated today, we were first team out in 5, 4th team one in 1, and the other didn't list the just missed teams. 

[muguru]

Okay, I think we are all in agreement that if MU wins both this week, there is a strong likelihood, they are IN the NCAA's..But...are we certain that 10-8 gets them out of Dayton?? My concern with Dayton is, if you lose, it's like you weren't even in because you are home before the tourney really kicks off on Thursday. That would be depressing.

[Herman Cain]

Okay, I think we are all in agreement that if MU wins both this week, there is a strong likelihood, they are IN the NCAA's..But...are we certain that 10-8 gets them out of Dayton?? My concern with Dayton is, if you lose, it's like you weren't even in because you are home before the tourney really kicks off on Thursday. That would be depressing.

We are not all in agreement that there is a strong likelihood  MU is in. I would say it is possible we are in.

[wadesworld]

Lock for in the field of 64.

[jsglow]

We are not all in agreement that there is a strong likelihood  MU is in. I would say it is possible we are in.

If we win BOTH?

Yeah, some people do think the sun revolves around the earth, I guess.

[Babybluejeans]

Okay, I think we are all in agreement that if MU wins both this week, there is a strong likelihood, they are IN the NCAA's..But...are we certain that 10-8 gets them out of Dayton?? My concern with Dayton is, if you lose, it's like you weren't even in because you are home before the tourney really kicks off on Thursday. That would be depressing.

No, all but a couple loonies agree that if MU wins both this week, they are a LOCK for the NCAAs WITH a bye.

[Herman Cain]

If we win BOTH?

Yeah, some people do think the sun revolves around the earth, I guess.

Assuming we win both.

I still think we need to win Two more in the BET to make it a strong likelihood. One BET a likelihood and no BET a possibility.

Part of my theory is that wheels coming off Wagon at Xavier and to a lesser extent Creighton are not helpful to our cause.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Assuming we win both.

I still think we need to win Two more in the BET to make it a strong likelihood. One BET a likelihood and no BET a possibility.

Part of my theory is that wheels coming off Wagon at Xavier and to a lesser extent Creighton are not helpful to our cause.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Okay, I think we are all in agreement that if MU wins both this week, there is a strong likelihood, they are IN the NCAA's..But...are we certain that 10-8 gets them out of Dayton?? My concern with Dayton is, if you lose, it's like you weren't even in because you are home before the tourney really kicks off on Thursday. That would be depressing.

If we win both, we are a stone cold lock for the round of 64 at 10-8.  Those that are unwilling to agree with that are just bullheaded (nice word), unwilling to examine the bubble, or some mixture of both. 

[Hards Alumni]

Assuming we win both.

I still think we need to win Two more in the BET to make it a strong likelihood. One BET a likelihood and no BET a possibility.

Part of my theory is that wheels coming off Wagon at Xavier and to a lesser extent Creighton are not helpful to our cause.

The problem is the team is all over the map.  Great blowout wins, and frustrating choke jobs.

Need to win the last two to get in, and that may not be enough depending on what happens this last week.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The problem is the team is all over the map.  Great blowout wins, and frustrating choke jobs.

Need to win the last two to get in, and that may not be enough depending on what happens this last week.

Any BE will get in, with a bye, at 10-8.  I'd bet a lot of money on it. 

And I'd be utterly shocked if any BE team was left out at 9-9.  SHOCKED.  I'd still bet a good deal on that.  A 9-9 team that gets bounced in the first round of the BET will probably be in Dayton, and needs to hope that a sub .500 team from a power 6 doesn't win their conference tourney, or some obscure team from the A10 or AAC, but outside of 3+ of those happening, I don't see a .500 or better team from the ACC, BE, B10, or B12 not making it. 

[bilsu]

Winning at Xavier and beating Creighton are two high quality wins. Probably somewhat overrated, because they are not as good as they were before they lost their point guards. However, I see no way they are not in, if they win both.

[bilsu]

Any BE will get in, with a bye, at 10-8.  I'd bet a lot of money on it. 

And I'd be utterly shocked if any BE team was left out at 9-9.  SHOCKED.  I'd still bet a good deal on that.

It would not shock me, if a 9-9 Big East team gets left out of NCAA tournament. It would not shock me if an 8-10 Big East team gets left out of NIT.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

It would not shock me, if a 9-9 Big East team gets left out of NCAA tournament.

Pay more attention. Only chance would be if PC lost to Depaul on Tuesday (ends at 9-9), gets the 7 seed in the BE tourney, and loses to Depaul again.  They still may get into Dayton at 9-9 there, but it'd be close with THREE losses to Depaul on the year. 

Chances of that happening are close to 0%, IMO.

[bradley center bat]

66/68 last year. 67/68 in 2015. 68/68 in 2014. Good, but not perfect. We're waaay too close for comfort.

What has been Jerry Palm's record at CBS been?

[dw3dw3dw3]

I agree, wouldn't be shocked. Do I think that would happen (9-9, lose 1st rd BET, left out), no not at all. You leave a little bit of a door open though. Illinois could get these last 2 and be sitting at 9-9 with a better RPI. There's a lot of things that could happen, and ways the committe decides to interpret things.  Bracket Matrix was 65/68 last year, fortunately we fit the profile more closely of the three teams that got added (Cuse, Tulsa, Vandy) vs those that go left out (St Marys, St Bon, San Diego) other than the whole religious thing. Quality wins have proven to be a lot more important that quantity of wins.

[bilsu]

Pay more attention. Only chance would be if PC lost to Depaul on Tuesday (ends at 9-9), gets the 7 seed in the BE tourney, and loses to Depaul again.  They still may get into Dayton at 9-9 there, but it'd be close with THREE losses to Depaul on the year. 

Chances of that happening are close to 0%, IMO.

I did not say they were going to get left out, just that it would not shock me. We do not know hat else is going to happen. Certainly BYU beating Gonzaga gives them a chance for a bid. Iowa got to .500 in Big 10 and now play the badgers who are in their own free fall. They could play themselves in. Other teams could win their conference tournament that would not normally get a bid. There is a good possibility that 9-9 is not good enough, if some things happen.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I did not say they were going to get left out, just that it would not shock me. We do not know hat else is going to happen. Certainly BYU beating Gonzaga gives them a chance for a bid. Iowa got to .500 in Big 10 and now play the badgers who are in their own free fall. They could play themselves in. Other teams could win their conference tournament that would not normally get a bid. There is a good possibility that 9-9 is not good enough, if some things happen.

Iowa and BYU are not getting at larges.

[Windyplayer]

Iowa and BYU are not getting at larges.

Correct.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/BYU/brigham-young-cougars

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/IOWA/iowa-hawkeyes

[BM1090]

In addition to the bubble being awful, it helps that two of the few surging bubble teams are Vandy and Georgia. Besides the fact that we have a neutral and road win over two fellow bubble teams, it's moving our RPI up. About 10 days ago an 18-12 record projected to give MU a 71 RPI.

Now, an 18-12 record projects to RPI of 65/66. That's a safe number for a team with our record vs the top 50/100 and other computer numbers

[BM1090]

I ran a few scenarios with RPIWizard. I know it's not exact, but with 2 games left plus conference tournaments, the projections should be pretty accurate.

Scenario 1: 1-1 finish, 6 seed, followed by BET loss to Creighton in the first round.

W-L   RPI*   SOS
18-13   68   40

Scenario 2: 1-1 finish, 7 seed, first round win vs. DePaul, loss to Butler in the 2nd round

W-L   RPI*   SOS
19-13   68   52

Scenario 3: 2-0 down the stretch, 5 seed first round loss to Providence

W-L   RPI*   SOS
19-12   60   51

Scenario 4: 0-2 to finish the year, 7 seed, beat DePaul, beat Butler, lose to Creighton

W-L   RPI*   SOS
19-14   69   41

Scenario 5: 0-2 to finish the year, 7 seed, beat DePaul, beat Butler, Beat Creighton, lose to Nova

W-L   RPI*   SOS
20-14   59   34

I think we may be safe in any of those scenarios, even the two where we finish 8-10 in the Big East. Scenario 4 obviously worries me, but I would maintain that winning 1 of the next 2 and avoiding a game with DePaul should be enough.

I didn't run any scenarios where we lost the next 3 or any where we won more than 2 because in those situations we should be out or safely in.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I ran a few scenarios with RPIWizard. I know it's not exact, but with 2 games left plus conference tournaments, the projections should be pretty accurate.

Scenario 1: 1-1 finish, 6 seed, followed by BET loss to Creighton in the first round.

W-L   RPI*   SOS
18-13   68   40

Scenario 2: 1-1 finish, 7 seed, first round win vs. DePaul, loss to Butler in the 2nd round

W-L   RPI*   SOS
19-13   68   52

Scenario 3: 2-0 down the stretch, 5 seed first round loss to Providence

W-L   RPI*   SOS
19-12   60   51

Scenario 4: 0-2 to finish the year, 7 seed, beat DePaul, beat Butler, lose to Creighton

W-L   RPI*   SOS
19-14   69   41

Scenario 5: 0-2 to finish the year, 7 seed, beat DePaul, beat Butler, Beat Creighton, lose to Nova

W-L   RPI*   SOS
20-14   59   34

I think we may be safe in any of those scenarios, even the two where we finish 8-10 in the Big East. Scenario 4 obviously worries me, but I would maintain that winning 1 of the next 2 and avoiding a game with DePaul should be enough.

I didn't run any scenarios where we lost the next 3 or any where we won more than 2 because in those situations we should be out or safely in.

I'd be pretty concerned with scenario 4, but we'd probably be really close. 

By the way, I think it is unlikely that we go 1-1 and get the 7 seed (scenario 2).  I think the only way that could happen is a loss @ X, and win vs. Creighton, and then all of Creighton, SHU and X finish at 10-8. Possible, but requires X and SHU to win out, and SHU has to play @ Butler.  We hold the tie breaker with SHU, X and Creighton - even with a loss against X and/or Creighton this week. PC owns the tie breaker over us if we're the only 2 that finish at 9-9.

[muguru]

Pay more attention. Only chance would be if PC lost to Depaul on Tuesday (ends at 9-9), gets the 7 seed in the BE tourney, and loses to Depaul again.  They still may get into Dayton at 9-9 there, but it'd be close with THREE losses to Depaul on the year. 

Chances of that happening are close to 0%, IMO.

I Was just going to say..i'm not sure Providence gets in at 9-9 if they lose to DePaul again this week. That'd be 3 sub 200 losses..that's ugly.