Bubble Watch

[PGsHeroes32]

Agreed, losing out including a loss @ Depaul just might push them out.  But their RPI is so strong.  Teams from power conferences with those type of power numbers don't get left out. When X most likely loses to Creighton on Saturday, we're going to be facing a determined bunch next Tuesday, with X having dropped 5 straight.

Butler not Creighton.

I will say the one thing working against X is the committee does like to 1. Take a look at how your playing lately(didn't hurt Cuse last year tho) and 2. How your current roster is playing.

So if X keeps losing without sumner, maybe things get dicey?

I just hope we can help add to that dicey.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Butler not Creighton.

I will say the one thing working against X is the committee does like to 1. Take a look at how your playing lately(didn't hurt Cuse last year tho) and 2. How your current roster is playing.

So if X keeps losing without sumner, maybe things get dicey?

I just hope we can help add to that dicey.

Yes, thank you. 

[Windyplayer]

Jerry coming around...

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-bracket-syracuse-last-team-in-duke-maintains-3-seed-unc-jumps-to-1-seed/

The Golden Eagles are back in the bracket after beating Xavier and St. John’s in the last week.  Marquette has a poor strength of schedule, which is dragging them down, but they have five top 50 wins, including one on the road and another on a neutral court.  The ability to beat good teams away from home is the primary reason why Marquette is ahead of Syracuse.

The upcoming schedule is pretty tough for the Golden Eagles though.  They have road games at Providence and Xavier, which should be playing with some level of desperation, then finish at home against Creighton.  Marquette’s tournament standing will likely still be in doubt entering the  Big East tournament.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Georgia up 3 at Alabama w 4 to go. On ESPN2.

A bulldog win would be doubly sweet.

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

Jerry coming around...

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-bracket-syracuse-last-team-in-duke-maintains-3-seed-unc-jumps-to-1-seed/

The Golden Eagles are back in the bracket after beating Xavier and St. John’s in the last week.  Marquette has a poor strength of schedule, which is dragging them down, but they have five top 50 wins, including one on the road and another on a neutral court.  The ability to beat good teams away from home is the primary reason why Marquette is ahead of Syracuse.

The upcoming schedule is pretty tough for the Golden Eagles though.  They have road games at Providence and Xavier, which should be playing with some level of desperation, then finish at home against Creighton.  Marquette’s tournament standing will likely still be in doubt entering the  Big East tournament.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Syracuse.  Last year they were one of the teams who's RPI was about 72 which was one of the worst ever in the tourney from a non conf. tournament winner.  Yet, they made the final four.  Perhaps that works in Syracuse's favor.  Regardless, the best thing MU can do is finish strong.  If they win out, then they're in despite a 1st round BE conf tourney loss.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Georgia gonna win. Nice road W

[bradley center bat]

Georgia up 3 at Alabama w 4 to go. On ESPN2.

A bulldog win would be doubly sweet.

Thank You, Georgia.

[Daniel]

Georgia up 3 at Alabama w 4 to go. On ESPN2.

A bulldog win would be doubly sweet.

Geaogia won!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Regardless, the best thing MU can do is finish strong.  If they win out, then they're in despite a 1st round BE conf tourney loss.

2-1 MU is stone cold lock regardless of what happens in BET. Book it.

[warriorstrack]

Georgia gonna win. Nice road W

I've never paid much attention to the Palm site, but the "What can MU do to boost its RPI today" is interesting.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

So far everything has happened.
Georgia, St. Francis, IUPUI winners so far

Houston Baptist right now down but not out, and UDub probably beats The Ohio St.

Stating the obvious like so many before me, all MU has to do is win.

[drewm88]

I was only half watching at the gym, but I'm pretty sure when ESPN ran a package on Alabama's Tournament Resume during the game against Georgia, one of the criteria they listed was Alabama's rebounds per game. Can anyone back me up on that? Struck me as one of the dumber things I've ever seen.

[MuMark]

Babtist came back to win.....UW losing by 9

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Overall good day on the bubble for MU.

USC loses to Arizona.
All former Marquette opponents besides Bucky won (Georgia, IUPUI, Houston Baptist)
Gardner-Webb won (lots of common opponents with MU)
Biggest win of the day was Georgia over Bama on the road. Boosts our RPI (Georgia now 51st in RPI) and likely bursts Bama's bubble.

All this resulted in a nice 4 spot bump in RPI for MU.


Nebraska failed to beat Michigan State but that was hardly a surprise. UNC-Wilmington also came back to beat Towson but I would be shocked if they actually managed an at large bid.

[Herman Cain]

Bubble watch is more fun than Kostas watch

[fjm]

Bubble watch is more fun than Kostas watch

Haha. That was solid.

[bradley center bat]

I've never paid much attention to the Palm site, but the "What can MU do to boost its RPI today" is interesting.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

CBS has a very good site!

[mu03eng]

Overall good day on the bubble for MU.

USC loses to Arizona.
All former Marquette opponents besides Bucky won (Georgia, IUPUI, Houston Baptist)
Gardner-Webb won (lots of common opponents with MU)
Biggest win of the day was Georgia over Bama on the road. Boosts our RPI (Georgia now 51st in RPI) and likely bursts Bama's bubble.

All this resulted in a nice 4 spot bump in RPI for MU.


Nebraska failed to beat Michigan State but that was hardly a surprise. UNC-Wilmington also came back to beat Towson but I would be shocked if they actually managed an at large bid.

Not knocking you at all, but this info is exactly why the RPI as key indicator of entry into the tournament is so stupid. MU moves up 4 spots in the RPI simply because teams we played and teams our opponents played have won or lost.

RPI is a stat from a by-gone era and the sooner it dies, the better off we'll all be.

[jsglow]

It is stupid.  To have a meaningful measurement be 'we put in the walk-ons with 8 minutes to go' against an RPI 300 team vs. 'we put in the walk-ons with 2 minutes' against a RPI 200 winning both games by 25 is simply crazy.  And it's bad for college basketball.  Just a couple of years ago Grambling couldn't even fill out their schedule because of the RPI hit folks would take.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

It is stupid.  To have a meaningful measurement be 'we put in the walk-ons with 8 minutes to go' against an RPI 300 team vs. 'we put in the walk-ons with 2 minutes' against a RPI 200 winning both games by 25 is simply crazy.  And it's bad for college basketball.  Just a couple of years ago Grambling couldn't even fill out their schedule because of the RPI hit folks would take.

??? Scoring margins have ZERO effect on RPI. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Not knocking you at all, but this info is exactly why the RPI as key indicator of entry into the tournament is so stupid. MU moves up 4 spots in the RPI simply because teams we played and teams our opponents played have won or lost.

RPI is a stat from a by-gone era and the sooner it dies, the better off we'll all be.

Oh, I absolutely agree. Everyone but the committee seems to realize this. But they are supposedly moving away from it so maybe there is hope.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

??? Scoring margins have ZERO effect on RPI.

His point was that its dumb that we are being punished because we played cupcakes that were so bad that we could play our walk ons with 8 minutes left vs. playing cupcakes where we couldn't play our walk ons until 2 minutes left.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tonight's bubble action:

Oregon State @ California

Siena @ Monmouth (fringe at best)

Akron @ Buffalo (fringe at best)



Saturday's (rather broad) bubble games:

FL State @ Clemson

UNC @ PITT (Pitt probably has to win out regular season, plus several wins in ACCT at this point)

Wichita State @ Missouri State

Tennessee @ South Carolina

West Virginia @ TCU

Texas Tech @ OK State (OK State likely safe)

Illinois State @ Northern Iowa

VCU @ Rhode Island (VCU likely safe)

Seton Hall @ Depaul

Northeastern @ UNC-Wilmington (UNC-W longshot at best for at large)

Missouri @ Ole Miss

Miss. St @ Vandy

Purdue @ Michigan

Duke @ Miami (Miami likely safe at this point)

Marquette @ Providence

LSU @ Georgia (Georgia is a long shot at best)

Kansas State @ Oklahoma

Nevada @ UNLV (Nevada long shot at best)

Alabama @ Tex. A&M

Northwestern @ Indiana (Indiana a long shot, NW creeping closer to bubble)

Arkansas @ Auburn (Auburn long shot at best)

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

His point was that its dumb that we are being punished because we played cupcakes that were so bad that we could play our walk ons with 8 minutes left vs. playing cupcakes where we couldn't play our walk ons until 2 minutes left.

Ahh misread it.  Yah, I mean, at the end of the day, replace our three worst buy games with three buy games around 150ish and our RPI isn't an issue, and we still would have smoked those teams.  I agree RPI is super lame and out of date.  But some of this is on MU for poor buy game scheduling, something they've made a habit of lately.   

[mu03eng]

Ahh misread it.  Yah, I mean, at the end of the day, replace our three worst buy games with three buy games around 150ish and our RPI isn't an issue, and we still would have smoked those teams.  I agree RPI is super lame and out of date.  But some of this is on MU for poor buy game scheduling, something they've made a habit of lately.   

Or have one or two of our actual buy games not have critical injuries or play in a conference where the competition is terrible.

Last year, I had all sorts of issues with how MU scheduled, they corrected that for the most part this season but still get burned potentially.

[mu03eng]

Something that got discussed on twitter a bit....which loss that MU suffered would be the most useful/impactful you think to reduce our bubble presence

Pitt in NYC
@Seton Hall
@Butler
Providence

I originally argued Butler because that would give us a big top 25 road win, but as I thought about it more, I would say @Seton Hall. Gives us a top 50 road win, plus with the way the season has turned out that would likely eliminate Hall as a competitor for a bid.

Thoughts?