Bubble Watch

[PGsHeroes32]

Palm moved us in.

[BM1090]

Palm moved us in.

No way.

So basically, he kept us out for no logical reason, and then the first time in weeks that the bubble has a good night and he could justify keeping us out, he moves us in. Nice.

[MUMountin]

TAMU--is it possible to direct me (us) the running list of legitimate bubble teams--or perhaps post it? You seem to have the best pulse on this topic. I've seen so called bubble teams in other threads that are not included in other bubble team lists.  I understand it is not an exact science, and it's fluid--but I would like to get a better handle on who truly are the bubble teams. Thank you.

For better or worse, I actually think the Eamonn Brennan's Bubble Watch on ESPN is a decent list of the bubble teams--some of the analysis itself gets annoying, but I think he usually does a good job of tracking the trends in Bubbleland and then describing what recent/upcoming games might have an impact on bubble chances writ large.  I believe it is updated twice weekly during most of the season, and then daily in the last few weeks.

[geps]

Let's hope they look at this 3 game stretch the same way we looked at Providence/St Johns and DePaul following the Nova win.

PC totally due to lose now and will take us too lightly. Just can't get into a huge hole like at the BC as we shot only 39%. We have our 'normal' shooting and win.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Our biggest asset is our top 50 wins. Currently 5-5 against the top 50. But we have several opponents currently flirting with the top 50 line: Vanderbilt (47th), Seton Hall (48th), Michigan (51st), Providence (54th), Georgia (57th).

Unlikely that all 5 would get into the top 50. But has the potential to move our top 50 W-L record as low as 3-4 or as high as 7-7 (assuming a win @Providence). Here's what these opponents have the rest of the way:

Vanderbilt: Mississippi State, @Kentucky, Florida (Likely 1-2)
Seton Hall: @Depaul, Georgetown, @Butler (Likely 2-1)
Michigan: Purdue. @Northwestern, @Nebraska (Likely 1-2)
Providence: Marquette, Depaul, @St. John's (Likely 3-0)
Georgia: @Alabama, LSU, Auburn, @Arkansas (Likely 3-1)

Using RPI wizard, here are the final RPIs if those games play out like expected:
Vanderbilt: 49
Seton Hall: 45
Michigan: 49
Providence: 50
Georgia: 50

Obviously...not a perfect system. Can't have two 49s and two 50s. What it tells me is that all of these teams would likely be in the 45-55 range. Michigan will be the team to watch. Two of the games I have them losing (Purdue and @NW) are considered tossups on RPI forecast. Win either one and they can solidify themselves as a top 50 team. Georgia @Alabama is another tossup that could go against us. We are actually currently favored to beat Providence at RPI Forecast so that would likely keep them out of the top 50...but I'd be more than happy with that.

In the end, lets just go 3-0 and remove all doubt eh? 

EDIT: Looked at Pittsburgh too. They are currently 65th in RPI. They are likely to go 0-3 the rest of the way (UNC, @GT, @UVA). But if they somehow went 2-1, they also would have an RPI of 50 per RPI Wizard. So....possible.

Great post.  Thanks for the analysis.  What's your take on importance of the top 50 for our wins versus our losses? I would think we'd prefer our wins (Vandy, Georgia, PC (but not at expense of beating us), Seton Hall) to finish in the top 50.  Obviously it'd be nice to have our losses to Michigan and Pitt be top 50 as well, but does that really matter in your opinion? I have hard time believing the committee is going to differentiate much if they finish above 50.  It would, in fact, improve our top 50 RPI winning percentage, but lower our 50-100 winning percentage. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

For better or worse, I actually think the Eamonn Brennan's Bubble Watch on ESPN is a decent list of the bubble teams--some of the analysis itself gets annoying, but I think he usually does a good job of tracking the trends in Bubbleland and then describing what recent/upcoming games might have an impact on bubble chances writ large.  I believe it is updated twice weekly during most of the season, and then daily in the last few weeks.

Yah, that's the best source IMO. Bracketmatrix works too, but can be a bit overwhelming to look at if you're not used to it, and tougher to differentiate auto bids and at large bids.

[PGsHeroes32]

No way.

So basically, he kept us out for no logical reason, and then the first time in weeks that the bubble has a good night and he could justify keeping us out, he moves us in. Nice.

Yeah he really has no logic

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Great post.  Thanks for the analysis.  What's your take on importance of the top 50 for our wins versus our losses? I would think we'd prefer our wins (Vandy, Georgia, PC (but not at expense of beating us), Seton Hall) to finish in the top 50.  Obviously it'd be nice to have our losses to Michigan and Pitt be top 50 as well, but does that really matter in your opinion? I have hard time believing the committee is going to differentiate much if they finish above 50.  It would, in fact, improve our top 50 RPI winning percentage, but lower our 50-100 winning percentage.

Top 50 wins matter more. But top 50 losses look better than 51-100 losses. I don't think winning% vs a specific group matters.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Top 50 wins matter more. But top 50 losses look better than 51-100 losses. I don't think winning% vs a specific group matters.

You don't think 6-4 versus top 50 looks better than 6-6 versus top 50?  I'm honestly not sure, since like I said, we'd have more 50+ losses.  At the end of the day, I think it is just one more thing the committee is going to look at along with Kempom, Sagrin, raw RPI, conference record, etc. But the more top 50 wins we can get the better, we can all agree there. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You don't think 6-4 versus top 50 looks better than 6-6 versus top 50?  I'm honestly not sure, since like I said, we'd have more 50+ losses.  At the end of the day, I think it is just one more thing the committee is going to look at along with Kempom, Sagrin, raw RPI, conference record, etc. But the more top 50 wins we can get the better, we can all agree there.

No. Because going 6-4 against top 50 vs. 6-6 against top 50 means we have 2 more losses against 51-100. Top 50 losses are always better than 51-100 losses.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Our biggest asset is our top 50 wins. Currently 5-5 against the top 50. But we have several opponents currently flirting with the top 50 line: Vanderbilt (47th), Seton Hall (48th), Michigan (51st), Providence (54th), Georgia (57th).

Unlikely that all 5 would get into the top 50. But has the potential to move our top 50 W-L record as low as 3-6 (assuming losses to Creighton/X) or as high as 9-7 (assuming wins @Providence, @X, vs. Creighton). Here's what these opponents have the rest of the way:

Vanderbilt: Mississippi State, @Kentucky, Florida (Likely 1-2)
Seton Hall: @Depaul, Georgetown, @Butler (Likely 2-1)
Michigan: Purdue. @Northwestern, @Nebraska (Likely 1-2)
Providence: Marquette, Depaul, @St. John's (Likely 3-0)
Georgia: @Alabama, LSU, Auburn, @Arkansas (Likely 3-1)

Using RPI wizard, here are the final RPIs if those games play out like expected:
Vanderbilt: 49
Seton Hall: 45
Michigan: 49
Providence: 50
Georgia: 50

Obviously...not a perfect system. Can't have two 49s and two 50s. What it tells me is that all of these teams would likely be in the 45-55 range. Michigan will be the team to watch. Two of the games I have them losing (Purdue and @NW) are considered tossups on RPI forecast. Win either one and they can solidify themselves as a top 50 team. Georgia @Alabama is another tossup that could go against us. We are actually currently favored to beat Providence at RPI Forecast so that would likely keep them out of the top 50...but I'd be more than happy with that.

In the end, lets just go 3-0 and remove all doubt eh? 

EDIT: Looked at Pittsburgh too. They are currently 65th in RPI. They are likely to go 0-3 the rest of the way (UNC, @GT, @UVA). But if they somehow went 2-1, they also would have an RPI of 50 per RPI Wizard. So....possible.

Edited my original post. Forgot to include the games @X and Creighton in our potential top 50 record.

Also, I forgot Maten is hurt for Georgia. That moves their chances of going 3-1 down significantly. Man, they could do us a huge favor though if they could find a way to upset Arkansas on the road. They are only a few spots ahead of us.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

http://bracketmatrix.com/


4th to last team in on this am's update.  Seton Hall jumped us for last bye. In 107/115 brackets.  In all but 1 bracket updated since SJU win (which is Realtime RPI (http://realtimerpi.com/bracketology/bracketology_Men.html), who for some reason hates us as I don't believe we've made their field all year, even after Nova win. 

That said, if more brackets had been updated, pretty sure K State, and perhaps Cal would have dropped below us.  They were dropped from several brackets this am.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tonight's action:

Georgia @ Alabama (Georgia fringe at best)

Nebraska @ Michigan State

USC @ Arizona


Fringe games:

Utah @ Colorado

Wisconsin @ Ohio State (OSU has virtually no chance of at large)

Towson @ UNC Wilmington (LONG shot at best for at large)

[bradley center bat]

Weird that some think USC is on the bubble.

[fjm]

Weird that some think USC is on the bubble.

They are only 6 spots ahead of us according to bracket matrix. If they lose from here out, that's a spot we could leap into.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Weird that some think USC is on the bubble.

If I owned a bubble watch service, I would make my bubble discussions as broad as possible.  Essentially anyone who if they win a bunch in a row can play themselves in all the way to the teams that are likely safe but if they poop the bed they would fall out.

This way I am both accurate and get the most amount of fans hitting my report.

[BM1090]

Weird that some think USC is on the bubble.

Lunardi has them 2 spots in front of us

They only have 2 top 50 wins (2-5) and are only 5-6 vs the top 100. Two of those wins (Texas AM and BYU) could fall out of the top 100.

If they lose a couple of games and those 2 fall out of the top 100, they could miss. Tough to get in with 3 top 100 wins...

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Weird that some think USC is on the bubble.

They're most likely safe (was going to add that note), but really their resume is not special.  2 top 50 wins, both at home versus SMU and UCLA (we have 5). 5 top 100 wins (we have 8, with at least 4 more tries.  USC has 0 top 100 games left, so only opportunities for bad losses).  Best road win at Tex A&M.  Played a god awful non con schedule.  Besides the UCLA win, they haven't beaten anyone of substance in an extremely top heavy Pac12. 

[jsglow]

Serious question.  With remaining games against Butler, MU and DePaul, does Xavier fail to make the tournament if they go 1-2?

[BM1090]

Serious question.  With remaining games against Butler, MU and DePaul, does Xavier fail to make the tournament if they go 1-2?

Nah. 0-3 and they are in trouble, but 1-2 they'd be fine. They have non-con wins over Clemson, Utah and Wake Forest, 3 other bubble teams. Only losses @ Baylor and @ Colorado.

[muguru]

I do think it would be funny as we sit here and talk about being on the bubble, if the committee actually would have MU safely in at this point, with no real chance of falling out unless they lost out. You just never know. They may see something with MU they like, that all the bracketologists aren't seeing.

[mu03eng]

Serious question.  With remaining games against Butler, MU and DePaul, does Xavier fail to make the tournament if they go 1-2?

They're probably fine(more fine than MU would be at 9-9 in conference). Committee would probably give them the benefit of the doubt in having to figure out how to play without Sumner

We want X to beat Butler tho, so we get more credit when we beat them

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Ok State would be a wild one. They don't play a lick of D either. First to 110 wins.

Want to see

[PGsHeroes32]

I do think it would be funny as we sit here and talk about being on the bubble, if the committee actually would have MU safely in at this point, with no real chance of falling out unless they lost out. You just never know. They may see something with MU they like, that all the bracketologists aren't seeing.

Great point.

They also may have us clearly out and needing 20 wins to have a shot as well.

That's why we're best off just speculating based off what the majority of brackets have us lol

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Nah. 0-3 and they are in trouble, but 1-2 they'd be fine. They have non-con wins over Clemson, Utah and Wake Forest, 3 other bubble teams. Only losses @ Baylor and @ Colorado.

Agreed, losing out including a loss @ Depaul just might push them out.  But their RPI is so strong.  Teams from power conferences with those type of power numbers don't get left out. When X most likely loses to Butler on Saturday, we're going to be facing a determined bunch next Tuesday, with X having dropped 5 straight.