Oso planning to go pro
Signet Jewelers buying Blue Nile for $360MM. I'm obviously close to this deal on both fronts but this is BAFFLING.Blue Nile was set to go public via SPAC with an enterprise value of just under $700MM. Now just 2 months later, they are selling for $300MM less. Even given that its an all cash deal, I'm still puzzled, especially since they were taken private 6 years ago for $500MM. The company is undoubtedly in better financial shape AND brand shape than 2016 and Ive seen first hand behind the curtains at some of the tactical spending and clean up they've done. Their current CEO is very impressive and pragmatic. So there has to be something SIGNIFICANT going on behind the scenes for this to happen like this. Especially with a shrewd operator like Bain Capital holding the purse strings.
In my previous job (2016-2020), Signet was my biggest customer, I was in Akron almost every other week for a while. That company was on life support back in 2018/2019, it’s amazing to me how the pandemic really helped them out. They were closing hundreds of stores a year (Jared and Zales mainly) and I really didn’t think they were going to make it (a lot of people there told me they thought the same thing).
It never fails...whenever a BDC or REIT issues more equity, the stock inevitably takes a hit. This frequently true for all stocks, of course, but what people seem to fail to understand is that BDCs and REITs immediately use the additional capital to make investments that increase their FFO and FAD.MAIN is down more than 4.5% today on an equity raise, currently at 42.80. If you are looking for a short-term trade, it will likely bounce back up in the next day or two.
Its just a function of temporary dilution effects. It would happen even if a company said "we're issuing equity, raising $XX and using $XX to invest in Y that will bring a return of 25% by Q2". Of course it will bounce back, its just the near term.
Disney is on pace to earn ~$4.00/share this year. While that is well below their pre-COVID peak, it's also well above their '20 and '21 numbers. Revenue will easily exceed their pre-COVID peak. The stock price is way, way down, but I would argue it is down from an irrational high, not that the company isn't preforming well. The stock price hasn't performed well, but I think it has merely dropped into fair value territory from way over bought.I recently took a very small position, and am comfortable adding to it at this level.That said, I think the prices at their parks are insane and you couldn't pay me enough to go, but for now it seems that they are charging what the people will bear and the public is happily paying it.
The distinction I'm drawing is between REITs and BDCs compared to a typical C corp. A C corp issuing equity does suffer from dilution, particularly when they state they are using the funds for general purposes or even to pay down debt; a REIT or BDC is doing more or less exactly what you said in your second sentence. Equity raises literally fuel their growth, and the knee jerk reaction by the market taking their share price down is a mispricing to be taken advantage of IMO.
Meme stock day.BBBY +75%
Wish you had told me yesterday that this was gonna happen today!BTW, Wall Street halted trading on BBBY midday. Up 54%.
I had no idea, I don't follow the WSB weirdos.
Think Ellenson Family Reunion gives some good advice above. This dip is a great thing for you being 30 years out. If you are a buy and hold guy, ideas I'd present would be: AMRN, ETSY, ULTA, RVLV, SQ, BA, SHOP, CTAS.Higher volatility biotechs I like (a sector invest 50% of my portfolio): AXSM, FLGT, GNPX, NVTA, SAVA, AQST, IGMS.Bloom Energy (BE) is also an interesting company with a bright future IMO.Invest at your own risk above. Just sharing some ideas.
I got burned on AMRN, but SAVA has been a big (and volatile) volatile winner for me. SAVA is the best risk/reward stock in the market. Their Alzheimer's drug has best in class results by a MILE. Currently in their Phase 3 study. Market cap of a pill-form, successful AD drug would likely be somewhere in the area of $75-100 Billion globally. Current market cap is $1.8 Billion.
I've been invested in SAVA since early 2021, I bought for a little over $8/share. While I've done well with the stock, I am kicking myself for not trimming some when it shot over $100. I do have a standing order to sell half my position at $60, the way it's been moving lately it might get there soon, I hope it does, and I will have no problem taking profits this time around.It is an extremely speculative position and history tells us that it is more likely to fail in phase 3 testing than to succeed. AD is extremely complex which why there haven't been any new treatments in about 30 years, not counting Biogen's recently approved drug, as that has been a bust.
I'm quite concerned by issues regarding their scientific integrity/diligence. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197458022000562?via%3DihubWhile, they found no intentional misrepresentation of data, the systematic issues with properly reporting/conducting experiments is concerning for a company once valued at $5B based on their data.I hope their drug works, but history shows that AD drugs fail to provide significant improvement/benefit.
My daughter and her fiance, as well as my nephew and his fiance, all closed on their first houses today. My daughter in the Baltimore/DC metroplex, my nephew in suburban Chicago. The dream continues.
Geo-political risk certainly took a small but painful bite of my ass today. Xi seems intent on ruining China's economy for the sake of power.