Juan v. Luke

[Milkshakes]

I think that Juan controlled possession on every jump ball to start the year. Luke has lost the two he has jumped. Not trying to make a big deal out of nothing. Just pleased with how big Juan can play.

[downtown85]

Do you know that the team who controls the opening jump ball wins 50% of the time?

[MUCam]

Do you know that the team who controls the opening jump ball wins 50% of the time?

Source? I find that a bit unbelievable as I thought it was widely known that the team that wins the jump balls wins half the time.

[mukaiser]

If we get the jump ball do we get to put a win in our win column?  If not I don't care.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If we get the jump ball do we get to put a win in our win column?  If not I don't care.

No but you could 1-2 more possessions than your opponent so it's significant

[GooooMarquette]

If it didn't matter, guys would just be standing there flat-footed taking a half-hearted swat at the ball.  Since they actually jump and try to win the tip, I suspect most coaches think it matters for the extra possible possession.

[Lennys Tap]

No but you could 1-2 more possessions than your opponent so it's significant

If you win the opening tip AND have the last possession of the game you will end the game with 1 more possession. If the other team has the final possession they will be equal.

[CTWarrior]

If you win the opening tip AND have the last possession of the game you will end the game with 1 more possession. If the other team has the final possession they will be equal.

Lenny, it is conceivable that you could win the opening tap and have the last possession of the first half, then have the first possession of the second half (if there was an odd number of alternate possessions during the first half) and the last possession of the game, giving you two more possessions. 

But I agree with you that setting your lineup to try to win the openning tap is basically pointless.  I have no idea what the stats actually are, but a reasonable assumption is that winning the opening tap will result in an average of very, very slightly more than one half of one possession in a game, which is worth about 1/2 a point.  When you couple that with a terrible jump ball guy would probably win 20% of the taps and a tremendous guys 80%, that means you'd only get a benefit of .3 points (60% of .5 points), or one point every three or four games in the very best possible circumstances.  It certainly would be lower than that in almost every case.  So really not something to worry about when setting your lineup.

[GooooMarquette]

CT Warrior:  I agree it isn't big enough to change your starting lineup over since the total points over the season would be minimal...but Juan and Luke both start anyway.  So why not go with the guy who seems to give you a better shot to get the first possession?

[CTWarrior]

CT Warrior:  I agree it isn't big enough to change your starting lineup over since the total points over the season would be minimal...but Juan and Luke both start anyway.  So why not go with the guy who seems to give you a better shot to get the first possession?

Absolutely no reason.  Agree with you there.  You should use the guy iin your starting lineup that gives you the best chance at winning the tip.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Lenny, it is conceivable that you could win the opening tap and have the last possession of the first half, then have the first possession of the second half (if there was an odd number of alternate possessions during the first half) and the last possession of the game, giving you two more possessions. 

But I agree with you that setting your lineup to try to win the openning tap is basically pointless.  I have no idea what the stats actually are, but a reasonable assumption is that winning the opening tap will result in an average of very, very slightly more than one half of one possession in a game, which is worth about 1/2 a point.  When you couple that with a terrible jump ball guy would probably win 20% of the taps and a tremendous guys 80%, that means you'd only get a benefit of .3 points (60% of .5 points), or one point every three or four games in the very best possible circumstances.  It certainly would be lower than that in almost every case.  So really not something to worry about when setting your lineup.

I would argue winning the tip is worth more than a half a point. If the average team scores .75 points per possession (guess not an actual average), and winning the tip gets you anywhere from 0-2 extra possesions, it also keeps you opponent from getting 0-2 extra possessions, than winning the tip is worth anywhere from 0-3 points. If you had the option to start the game up 3-0, wouldn't you?

I think fans get caught up with the idea that the 5 best players need to be on the floor to start the game. Why? It doesn't matter who starts the game, it matters who finishes it and who gets the most minutes. If a bench  quality player starts but only gets 10 minutes, how is that different from him coming off the bench and still getting 10 minutes?

I wouldn't advocate starting a non-rotation player to win the tip. That is too much of a liability to make winning the tip for it. But if you have a bench player take the tip, what difference does it make that he's getting his playing time at the start of the game instead of the middle and end of the game?

[Pakuni]

Edit: I mean this is the best way possible. I hope the discussion about the importance of the opening tip reaches "Silicon Valley" handjob scene levels.

[bilsu]

The question becomes whether Juan would of won the tips that Fischer did not? I think Fischer was actually doing the center jump against better centers than Juan was.

[CTWarrior]

I would argue winning the tip is worth more than a half a point. If the average team scores .75 points per possession (guess not an actual average), and winning the tip gets you anywhere from 0-2 extra possesions, it also keeps you opponent from getting 0-2 extra possessions, than winning the tip is worth anywhere from 0-3 points. If you had the option to start the game up 3-0, wouldn't you?

First of all, it's not 0-2 extra possessions, it is -1 to 2 extra possessions.  The same way you could get an extra possession in each half, you could have an even number of possessions in the first half and the team that lost the opening tip could have an extra possession in the second half (assume no other jump balls or an even number in the first half) by starting and ending the second half with the ball.  So the average extra possession will be exactly 0.5 over an infinite number of games.  At your estimate of .75 pts/possession, that is .375 pts/game.  And you're not going to win all the time with a good guy and lose all the time with a bad guy.  80% to 20%, which is a 60% swing, which brings the number down to 0.225, or 1 extra point every 4 or 5 games.  It is really even less than that, since 60% is too large a difference between your jumpers in practically every instance.  Having a better jumper take the tip is nothing like starting out ahead 3-0.  It is much more like starting the game at 0-0.

[brewcity77]

I would guess that more often than not, winning the tip would average out to 1 additional possession. The average for scoring is around 1 point per possession. Maybe up to 0.05 of a point higher or lower than that, but close enough to not make much difference. I'll happily take a 1-0 advantage in any game. It may be small, but that could be the difference between overtime and a win, or a loss and overtime.

Is it a huge difference? Maybe not. But you'd certainly rather win the tip than lose it. If nothing else, it guarantees you don't finish regulation with a -2 possession differential.

[CTWarrior]

I would guess that more often than not, winning the tip would average out to 1 additional possession. The average for scoring is around 1 point per possession. Maybe up to 0.05 of a point higher or lower than that, but close enough to not make much difference. I'll happily take a 1-0 advantage in any game. It may be small, but that could be the difference between overtime and a win, or a loss and overtime.

Is it a huge difference? Maybe not. But you'd certainly rather win the tip than lose it. If nothing else, it guarantees you don't finish regulation with a -2 possession differential.

It's got to be an average of half a possession.  Basically the second half is irrelevant to the discussion because there is a 50-50 chance of who will start with the ball (the winner or loser of the first half tip), and in the first half 50% of the time the team who won the tip will have the last possession and half the time they won't.  But it's not even half a point a game because the difference between a good jump ball guy and a bad jump ball guy isn't 100% of tips, it probably 30-40% of tips.  So that half a point becomes 1/4 or 1/3 of a point.  Noise level and just not a big deal at all. 

I seem to have a Pavlovian need to respond to this topic whenever it arises, but hopefully I can now bow out gracefully.

[bilsu]

I thought it was unusual when in the DePaul game there were two jump balls in the same possession. Then the same thing happen in the Providence game. Winning the jump ball is probably irrelevant, if there are no other jump balls in a game.