COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[rocky_warrior]

I'd be very curious to see the testing numbers over the same period. Or even the number of hospitalizations, which is the number that is really the most important in the flattening strategy. An increase in confirmed cases due to an increase in tests processed may not be indicative of a worsening of the spread.

Testing numbers are here - but a little lagged. 
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html

Yesterday they finally got to the 75k tests, with 33k positive.  Bigger % than I originally predicted, but that's largely due to who they've determined gets tested.

[rocky_warrior]

Looking at countries that seem to be on top of this (not many) Denmark's response seems to be working.

[Hards Alumni]

New Jersey numbersa are crazy:
New Jersey
New Jersey on Twitter
Positive
2,844
Negative
359
Pending
94
Hospitalized
N/A
Deaths
27
Total
3,297

Jesus tap dancing Christ.  94 pending?  What a failure.  This makes me want to puke.

I don't know how our health care workers are going into work with no PPE, and no testing being done.  They're fighting a god damned wildfire with squirt guns.

[Jockey]

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1242517011550416897?s=19

Anyone think we could see a standoff between the governors and the feds?

Yes. Trump wants things opened up by April 12th. That means he will have to override orders from govs.

Should be interesting.

[Galway Eagle]

Yes. Trump wants things opened up by April 12th. That means he will have to override orders from govs.

Should be interesting.

How does that work in the states rights vs fed? Also wouldn't it be ironic if we see a R president overruling the states... seems contradictory

[forgetful]

This is 2 weeks old, but early research from the University of Maryland suggests warmer temperatures will help to slow down the spread of the virus.

"Researchers at the Institute of Human Virology at the University of Maryland School of Medicine (UMSOM) and the Global Virus Network (GVN) predict that COVID-19 will follow a seasonal pattern similar to other respiratory viruses like seasonal flu."

“Based on what we have documented so far, it appears that the virus has a harder time spreading between people in warmer, tropical climates,” said study leader Mohammad Sajadi, MD"

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/news/2020/Researchers-Predict-Potential-Spread-and-Seasonality-for-COVID-19-Based-on-Climate-Where-Virus-Appears-to-Thrive.html

I don't disagree with their conclusion that the warmer weather will slow the spread, this is typically true for most viruses. The question is, how much? We see this spreading readily in warm climates (Equador has over 1000 cases and is likely not conducting robust testing).

Let's say right now the Ro is 3.0. Well in a warmer climate it may be 1.5. That would decrease the spread, but in a population that does not have any herd immunity, it will still spread quite rapidly if we do not have social distancing.

Now, let's say we relax social distancing because spread decreases in the warmer weather. What we'd have is a circulating population of maybe 10k active cases (these are random numbers for convenience sake). That's not good, because as soon as fall roles around and Ro goes back to 3.0, we see doubling every 2 days again, and we are at a million cases within a 2-week time period, barely long enough to realize it is happening and we are overwhelmed again.

We really need a vaccine.

[lawdog77]

Jesus tap dancing Christ.  94 pending?  What a failure.  This makes me want to puke.

I don't know how our health care workers are going into work with no PPE, and no testing being done.  They're fighting a god damned wildfire with squirt guns.

And a 90% positive rate??? Compare that to other states. Something isnt right.

[Hards Alumni]

And a 90% positive rate??? Compare that to other states. Something isnt right.

Well I'm sure the shortage is causing them to only test people they are quite sure are positive for Covid19.  The 94 pending tells me that there still isn't enough tests.  TWO WEEKS after we were promised millions by the end of last week.

[skianth16]

Well I'm sure the shortage is causing them to only test people they are quite sure are positive for Covid19.  The 94 pending tells me that there still isn't enough tests.  TWO WEEKS after we were promised millions by the end of last week.

Have there been any updates on the Jack Ma testing kit promise? Has he been able to help deliver any yet?

[Hards Alumni]

Have there been any updates on the Jack Ma testing kit promise? Has he been able to help deliver any yet?

No idea.  It will remain to be seen, but historically speaking... do you remember when the Notre Dame cathedral burned?  A lot of famous billionaires pledged a lot of money to repair it... guess how much money the cathedral has seen from them.

[rocky_warrior]

Well I'm sure the shortage is causing them to only test people they are quite sure are positive for Covid19.  The 94 pending tells me that there still isn't enough tests.  TWO WEEKS after we were promised millions by the end of last week.

Wait - I think pending just means "Sample taken to lab, no results yet".  Not waiting for a test to be available.
https://www.nj.gov/health/

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

No surprise, Liberty University is opening back up next week after spring break and having the students come back instead of online classrooms like the rest of the USA.

[muguru]

Johns Hopkins study says US was more prepared for a pandemic than any other country..

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-was-most-prepared-country-in-the-world-for-pandemics-johns-hopkins-study-found-in-2019

[Pakuni]

Johns Hopkins study says US was more prepared for a pandemic than any other country..

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-was-most-prepared-country-in-the-world-for-pandemics-johns-hopkins-study-found-in-2019

What the study found was that every country, including the US, was unprepared. And that's what has been proven these past few months.

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/02/27/trump-johns-hopkins-study-pandemic-coronaviruscovid-19-649-em0-art1-dtd-health/


Though the U.S. does sit atop the rankings, overall the report—produced by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the university's Bloomberg School of Public Health, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, and The Economist Intelligence Unit—paints a discouraging picture of global readiness.
"National health security is fundamentally weak around the world," the 324-page report concludes. "No country is fully prepared for epidemics or pandemics, and every country has important gaps to address."

[Hards Alumni]

Wait - I think pending just means "Sample taken to lab, no results yet".  Not waiting for a test to be available.
https://www.nj.gov/health/

Yes, of course.  But that IS the problem.  In all of New Jersey, there are only 93 outstanding tests to be checked.  If there were more tests, there would be more outstanding.  The bottle neck is in the number of tests available.

[Coleman]

Johns Hopkins study says US was more prepared for a pandemic than any other country..

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-was-most-prepared-country-in-the-world-for-pandemics-johns-hopkins-study-found-in-2019

That may well be true. Then the current results point to a lack of execution by leadership.

There is preparation, and then there is how you respond. 2 completely separate things.

[muguru]

That may well be true. Then the current results point to a lack of execution by leadership.

There is preparation, and then there is how you respond. 2 completely separate things.

But see...this is where everyone's hatred for the current President shows. Why doesn't anyone talk about the fact that had China not hid this from the world(and destroyed records of it along the way as well as silenced doctors etc), that we would have been more prepared and executed better had we known about it sooner. That's just facts.

I have my own theories on why China didn't alert the US to it sooner..but I will keep that to myself.

[GooooMarquette]

And even with the state to state patchwork, those states that have locked down aren't really locking down anything significant as it seems every single job is "essential"

Yep. Looking at the CT list, it seems as though everyone other than clowns and mimes are "essential." Makes it kind of a faux lockdown.

[Galway Eagle]

But see...this is where everyone's hatred for the current President shows. Why doesn't anyone talk about the fact that had China not hid this from the world(and destroyed records of it along the way as well as silenced doctors etc), that we would have been more prepared and executed better had we known about it sooner. That's just facts.

I have my own theories on why China didn't alert the US to it sooner..but I will keep that to myself.

Never mind not worth it with him.

[Coleman]

But see...this is where everyone's hatred for the current President shows. Why doesn't anyone talk about the fact that had China not hid this from the world(and destroyed records of it along the way as well as silenced doctors etc), that we would have been more prepared and executed better had we known about it sooner. That's just facts.

I have my own theories on why China didn't alert the US to it sooner..but I will keep that to myself.

I don't hate the president. I honestly hope he comes to his senses, listens to medical professionals, and kicks this things ass! If he is successful, he could earn a 2nd term. I am not rooting against him.

But when he is not acting in the best interests of our public welfare, I am going to say so.

[GooooMarquette]

But see...this is where everyone's hatred for the current President shows. Why doesn't anyone talk about the fact that had China not hid this from the world(and destroyed records of it along the way as well as silenced doctors etc), that we would have been more prepared and executed better had we known about it sooner. That's just facts.

I have my own theories on why China didn't alert the US to it sooner..but I will keep that to myself.

I am fine criticizing China - what they did was appalling. So yes, let's pile it on China.

But once we knew it was coming here, and given how "prepared" we were according to the JHU study, how do you explain the fact that we are skyrocketing through a poll that we don't want to be #1 in? Might it have anything to do with poor execution by a well-prepared country? And who is ultimately responsible for the execution of plans in this country? Might that responsibility fall to the head of the Executive Branch?

If that person actually listened to the advice of his experts and executed the plan that they advise, we would be in much better shape than we are today.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

No surprise, Liberty University is opening back up next week after spring break and having the students come back instead of online classrooms like the rest of the USA.

That's not accurate.  They are going online the rest of the semester, but allowing students to move back to the residence halls and requiring faculty and staff to work from campus.

[MUBurrow]

How does that work in the states rights vs fed? Also wouldn't it be ironic if we see a R president overruling the states... seems contradictory

It is, but it stopped being ironic a long time ago.

[skianth16]

Yep. Looking at the CT list, it seems as though everyone other than clowns and mimes are "essential." Makes it kind of a faux lockdown.

My wife's employer is closing several plants in multiple countries, as they are deemed non-essential. There are plenty of industries and jobs that are being excluded.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

But see...this is where everyone's hatred for the current President shows. Why doesn't anyone talk about the fact that had China not hid this from the world(and destroyed records of it along the way as well as silenced doctors etc), that we would have been more prepared and executed better had we known about it sooner. That's just facts.

I have my own theories on why China didn't alert the US to it sooner..but I will keep that to myself.

See no.  That's the exact wrong way to interpret this and leads me to believe you didn't read the article.

This report is from October.  Long before the current crisis.  And YES!!!  We were prepared!!!  But being prepared doesn't mean much if we don't execute well on that preparedness when the time comes.  And that's exactly what happened. 

Which is even more damning of the current administration considering that these people STILL were denying it was a problem as of about three weeks ago.  Even though we HAD a plan, and considered quite prepared, we F*CKED up the execution.

So no matter how many times you practice the onside kick, there's always a chance its gonna get screwed up when the time times.

In short....Donald Trump is the nation's Brian Bostick.