EV's

[GB Warrior]

Didn't Hertz just dispose of thousands of EVs because no demand from renters.. Friend of mine met me with the rental car and said he passed because he didn't know where or how to recharge and didn't want to search  on the way back to the airport .

I would also say that a renter may not want to figure out the ecosystem (which is not anywhere near saturation right now and is the single biggest problem imo) when already traveling in a new or less familiar place

[MU82]

More mess-ups with the Ford Lightning. What a shyteshow they've had pretty much right from the start. Blew their golden opportunity.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4071374-ford-halts-shipments-of-electric-f-150-truck-due-to-quality-issue

[jesmu84]

Ford EV sales up 80% over the same month 2023.

Customer interest is there

[MU82]

Here's the Seeking Alpha article, jes:

The electric vehicle sector started the week in reverse, led by large drops for Chinese electric vehicle makers Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) -12.47%, XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) -8.15%, and NIO (NIO) -7.05%. The sector may be reacting to poor EV production data out of China, although analysts have warned the comparisons to a year ago are impacted by the timing of the Chinese New Year. Another factor may be aggressive EV pricing from BYD Company (OTCPK:BYDDF) that fell below market expectations and could indicate the pricing war will continue.

The U.S. pure-play EV sector was also reeling, with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) down 6.44%, Lucid Group (LCID) 6.30% lower, Canoo (GOEV) down 5.16%, and Rivian Automotive (RIVN) showing a 5.09% drop. For comparison, the Nasdaq 100 was only down 0.15% at 12:29 p.m.

Other EV-related decliners included Hyliion Holdings (HYLN) -8.08%, Workhorse Group (WKHS) -8.05%, Fisker (FSR) -5.78%, and Blink Charging (BLNK) -3.96%.

While investor sentiment was poor on Monday for the pure EV sector, Detroit automakers Ford Motor (F) +4.33% and General Motors (GM) +1.01% were in positive territory for the session. Earlier in the day, Ford (F) reported unit sales rose 10.5% year-over-year in February to 174,192. Internal combustion unit sales were up 7.5%, while electric vehicle unit sales were 81% higher to 3,523 and hybrid vehicle unit sales rose 32% to 12,045. SUVs sales rose 24% during the quarter, while truck sales showed just a 1.4% gain. Ford Escape and Ford Edge sales both more than doubled during the month due to the timing of model introductions. Ford brand sales rose 9.4% during the quarter, while Lincoln brand sales jumped 38%.

Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have pulled back from their aggressive electric vehicle timeline targets.

So although EV sales gained more by percentage, Ford's gain in actual number of vehicles sold was much lower for EVs (1,577) than for ICE vehicles (12,025) or hybrids (2,920).

Doesn't mean there's no excitement or interest in Ford EVs, just that the numbers were so low in February 2023 that a huge percentage jump doesn't mean much in actual additional EV sales. Not yet, anyway.

I actually was shopping hard for a new car in February 2023 and was hoping to have some EVs to choose from. But there were just about none available, and the few I found - from Ford and others - had $5,000 or more tacked onto the sticker price. I ended up buying a hybrid. Maybe as inventory grows (especially non-Tesla inventory) and as prices level off, it will create significantly more sales.

[jesmu84]

Great.

The customer interest is there for Ford and every other manufacturer.

The pricing might not be.

Headlines that cite "lack of demand" for EVs is bs. It's not lack of demand. It's lack of demand for expensive EVs.

[dgies9156]

Infrastructure in the US - whether new development (electric grid capacity for EVs) or old maintenance (roads, bridges, sewer/water, in-place electric) - is so so so bad. Our nation should be ashamed

This as the biggest problems with EVs. I understand that EVs will become more efficient and charges last longer as time moves forward.

What I don't currently understand is from where will we produce the electricity to recharge 150 million or more electric vehicles that replace current gasoline or diesel fueled vehicles.

A new power plant, start to finish, may take between 10 and 20 years from concept to operation. The design, permits, construction and operating permits all take time. Short end may be for natural gas fired plants and the long end probably is nuclear. This time frame may be exacerbated by countless protests from folks who think we can power a nation with rooftop solar.

So if we eventually replace 150 million onboard hydrocarbon powered vehicles with EVs, we're going to need a whole heaping bunch of new power plants that can produce terawatts of incremental electricity. Or else we end up like California -- power brownouts and blackouts in peak use months.

The other interesting question: As most of us who convert to EVs establish in-house, Phase II vehicle chargers (potentially two per home), will your's and my local utility be up to the challenge. And, whether regulators will allow utilities to adjust rates to cover the incremental capital costs associated with the large scale new electric infrastructure that has to be coming?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

This as the biggest problems with EVs. I understand that EVs will become more efficient and charges last longer as time moves forward.

What I don't currently understand is from where will we produce the electricity to recharge 150 million or more electric vehicles that replace current gasoline or diesel fueled vehicles.

A new power plant, start to finish, may take between 10 and 20 years from concept to operation. The design, permits, construction and operating permits all take time. Short end may be for natural gas fired plants and the long end probably is nuclear. This time frame may be exacerbated by countless protests from folks who think we can power a nation with rooftop solar.

So if we eventually replace 150 million onboard hydrocarbon powered vehicles with EVs, we're going to need a whole heaping bunch of new power plants that can produce terawatts of incremental electricity. Or else we end up like California -- power brownouts and blackouts in peak use months.

The other interesting question: As most of us who convert to EVs establish in-house, Phase II vehicle chargers (potentially two per home), will your's and my local utility be up to the challenge. And, whether regulators will allow utilities to adjust rates to cover the incremental capital costs associated with the large scale new electric infrastructure that has to be coming?

This really isn't a problem. We are producing more electricity all of the time and will have no problem ramping up by the time EVs are more universal.

Getting that electricity to the consumer, and being able to quickly charge your car, are far more significant issues.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

This as the biggest problems with EVs. I understand that EVs will become more efficient and charges last longer as time moves forward.

What I don't currently understand is from where will we produce the electricity to recharge 150 million or more electric vehicles that replace current gasoline or diesel fueled vehicles.

A new power plant, start to finish, may take between 10 and 20 years from concept to operation. The design, permits, construction and operating permits all take time. Short end may be for natural gas fired plants and the long end probably is nuclear. This time frame may be exacerbated by countless protests from folks who think we can power a nation with rooftop solar.

So if we eventually replace 150 million onboard hydrocarbon powered vehicles with EVs, we're going to need a whole heaping bunch of new power plants that can produce terawatts of incremental electricity. Or else we end up like California -- power brownouts and blackouts in peak use months.

The other interesting question: As most of us who convert to EVs establish in-house, Phase II vehicle chargers (potentially two per home), will your's and my local utility be up to the challenge. And, whether regulators will allow utilities to adjust rates to cover the incremental capital costs associated with the large scale new electric infrastructure that has to be coming?

I posted this in this thread back on Feb 4.  Here's why what you said will never be a problem.


Efficiency.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/02/the-us-added-1-2-million-evs-to-the-grid-last-year-electricity-use-went-down/amp/


The US Added 1.2 Million EVs To The Grid Last Year, & Electricity Use Went Down


Article continues
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This all adds up. With the 1% that electricity production declined in 2023, we could have added something like another 10 million EVs to the grid last year and our overall electricity use would still have remained the same.
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Article continues

[dgies9156]

I posted this in this thread back on Feb 4.  Here's why what you said will never be a problem.


Efficiency.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/02/the-us-added-1-2-million-evs-to-the-grid-last-year-electricity-use-went-down/amp/


The US Added 1.2 Million EVs To The Grid Last Year, & Electricity Use Went Down


Article continues
....................
This all adds up. With the 1% that electricity production declined in 2023, we could have added something like another 10 million EVs to the grid last year and our overall electricity use would still have remained the same.
..................
Article continues

1.2 million is a whole lot less than the 200 million-plus private passenger cars that, at a minimum, will be tapping into the grid every night, growing to 300 million over time.

Lest you think I'm nuts, California has outlawed sale of new internal combustion engines by 2035. That's 11 years from now. At last count, there are about 32 million or so internal combustion engines on California's roadways today. (all of which converge on the 405 near Los Angeles at 4:30 p.m.) California already is having brown-outs and black-outs of electric power during peak usage periods.

OK, it won't all happen at once, but by 2040, most of California will be electric if the law remains. The state has phased out all but one of its nuclear power plants and getting a fossil fuel plant approved in California is about as easy as Satan getting into the Kingdom of Heaven. So I ask again, where's the power coming from?

In the United States in 2022, there were 278,870,463 registered personal and commercial vehicles. Are you willing to bet your personal freedom and the freedom of movement you now have that the electric grid as it stands today can handle the demand?

Are you willing to bet that the free movement of goods and services in the United States won't be affected by the ability of the electric grid to handle nearly 300 million vehicles? Will you get food delivery to your grocery store? Or pharmaceutical delivery to your drug store using the existing electrical grid?

Note: Even if you want to flip railroads from diesel to all-electric power, that's going to take a generation or more, and that's ambitious. Look it how long it took Amtrak to electrify the NEC from New Haven to Boston!

Sorry gang... until you address the question of massive increases in electric power generation, EVs are nothing more than a novelty.

[jesmu84]

Has this argument been made when large numbers of homes or appliances or office buildings, etc etc, were going to be hooked up to the grid?

Anti-EV propaganda argument

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

<sigh> No, the grid is not the problem. Perhaps do a little research on the topic instead of doing math on the back of a napkin.

https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/research/blog-can-the-grid-handle-evs-yes/

Summary

Electrifying the entire US light-duty vehicle fleet by 2050 will require less than 1% growth per year in overall electricity generation. Furthermore, complying with the EPA’s latest GHG standards for light duty vehicles will create only a 6% increase in electricity demand by the end of 2032. So, the answer is yes—the grid can absolutely handle all those EVs.

[rocky_warrior]

Anti-EV propaganda argument

I generally agree, my quick, back of the website (who writes on napkins anymore?) calculations say that US can currently produce twice+ as much electricity as it uses.  Of course, during peak times that's all being used, but in off-peak, there's plenty of capacity.

Also, new capacity coming on line every year ~ 1,300,000 MW now (2023), another 466,000 MW under development.  Plus lots of storage solutions in development for storing excess (esp solar).

Aso, as MUFIC posted, many households and businesses are continuing to upgrade things to use less.  Anecdotal examples, In my previous house I upgraded an electric water heater to a heat pump.  Electric use was cut almost in half.  In my current house, Last winter I heated primarily with baseboard heaters and fireplaces.  Last May I put in a couple cold climate heat pumps.  I'm now keeping my house warmer, and using about 17% less electric.

[dgies9156]

I generally agree, my quick, back of the website (who writes on napkins anymore?) calculations say that US can currently produce twice+ as much electricity as it uses.  Of course, during peak times that's all being used, but in off-peak, there's plenty of capacity.

Also, new capacity coming on line every year ~ 1,300,000 MW now (2023), another 466,000 MW under development.  Plus lots of storage solutions in development for storing excess (esp solar).

Aso, as MUFIC posted, many households and businesses are continuing to upgrade things to use less.  Anecdotal examples, In my previous house I upgraded an electric water heater to a heat pump.  Electric use was cut almost in half.  In my current house, Last winter I heated primarily with baseboard heaters and fireplaces.  Last May I put in a couple cold climate heat pumps.  I'm now keeping my house warmer, and using about 17% less electric.

Brother Rocky,

I get where you're coming from. I also see what's happened in California and brown-outs and black-outs. I want to think you're right but my "spidie senses" disagree. For one thing, our population keeps growing. Maybe I've been living in Florida too long, but new residential developments in my county alone are lending a new meaning to "drain the swamps!" That takes electricity and while our local utility, Florida Power, is staying on top of things, add 20 million electric vehicles and not even they can keep up!

In Chicago, the story went that a small trucking firm (about 100 tractors) near Joliet got the idea of switching to EV Tractors. They confidently called Commonwealth Edison, the local utility, and talked inspiringly of installing an electric recharging capability in their yard. Com-Ed called them back right away and screamed "NO" and politely told them the power necessary to recharge their fleet is about the same as is necessary to power Joliet on an average day.

Maybe in time we'll get there. But with every environmentalist screaming about any fossil fuel based electrical generators, problems with nuclear (almost no new nuclear plants started since 1979) and a belief that somehow rooftop solar will solve the country's electrical need, we're a long way from meeting the need. That said, I'm a believer in installing solar where it works. We have some of the biggest solar farms in the United States in St. Lucie County, FL, but even in the Sunshine State, the amount of water in the air severely reduces the sun's efficiency.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Brother Rocky,

I get where you're coming from. I also see what's happened in California and brown-outs and black-outs. I want to think you're right but my "spidie senses" disagree.

All about the feelings I guess.

[rocky_warrior]

Maybe in time we'll get there.

Honestly, I think that's the key.  I don't know if you drive an EV, but many don't.  Those that don't may switch over sometime in the next decade, but it certainly won't be all at once.  ICE's will still be around for a long time, regardless of what Cali says - have you not met the oil lobby? 

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

Brother Rocky,

In Chicago, the story went that a small trucking firm (about 100 tractors) near Joliet got the idea of switching to EV Tractors. They confidently called Commonwealth Edison, the local utility, and talked inspiringly of installing an electric recharging capability in their yard. Com-Ed called them back right away and screamed "NO" and politely told them the power necessary to recharge their fleet is about the same as is necessary to power Joliet on an average day.

And multiple fire marshals in rural Illinois/Indiana will not let our electric fleet vehicles park inside the O&M garages because of "Fire risk".

It's not always based on reality. Charging 100 EV tractors do not take up the same electricity as a city of 150k plus people. At risk of the back of the hand math we just shot down, even if you are cycling tractors for multiple a day recharges, it still doesn't come close. Com-Ed was either lying or miscalculating. If you charged your entire fleet 4 times in a day you would MAYBE come close to the MWs to be able to hit 10%. But I don't think that is even possible, timewise.

[tower912]

Facebook math.

EVs will become the dominant choice.  Eventually.

[rocky_warrior]

And multiple fire marshals in rural Illinois/Indiana will not let our electric fleet vehicles park inside the O&M garages because of "Fire risk".

This is an interesting one to me.  Batty charging always has some risk of starting a fire - the bigger the battery, the bigger the fire.  And I know the argument is EVs cause less fires than ICE's.  However, ICE's don't usually catch fire sitting in your garage - and the batteries in them aren't charging while sitting in your garage.

Perhaps it's irrational fear, but I'd hate to lose my house (or business) charging an EV.  Especially since most of them would smolder for hours with virtually no way to put them out.  Insurance companies are likely to charge extra for this too.  There may be a technical solution for this that isn't common yet.  Solid state batteries?  I'm not sure they're immune to fire completely either (but should be less).

[Spotcheck Billy]

I don't know how related this is but a recent story about a significant project by WE Energies.
We Energies expects to spend about $335 million to build electric distribution infrastructure to serve Microsoft's data center development in Mount Pleasant.
According to the Dept. of Energy data centers consume up to 50 times the energy of a similarly sized-office space and account for about 2 percent of all electricity use in the U.S.




damn scoop formatting

[dgies9156]

This is an interesting one to me.  Batty charging always has some risk of starting a fire - the bigger the battery, the bigger the fire.  And I know the argument is EVs cause less fires than ICE's.  However, ICE's don't usually catch fire sitting in your garage - and the batteries in them aren't charging while sitting in your garage.

Perhaps it's irrational fear, but I'd hate to lose my house (or business) charging an EV.  Especially since most of them would smolder for hours with virtually no way to put them out.  Insurance companies are likely to charge extra for this too.  There may be a technical solution for this that isn't common yet.  Solid state batteries?  I'm not sure they're immune to fire completely either (but should be less).

All right, I'll tell you why I'd buy an EV (I don't have one). If I can buy one that I can reserve the polarity and use it when the power goes off to run my house -- that Florida phenomenon called "Hurricanes" is real -- then OK, sold!

My house, by the way, is compliant with post-Homestead Florida building codes. Reinforced concrete walls, 150 mile-an-hour impact resistant windows. About the only burnable thing in here is the furnishings and the drywall!

[tower912]

No electical device and no internal combustion engine is completely 'immune' from catching fire.    Right now, extinguishing an EV fire is difficult.   

Ft. Myers had some poor experiences with EV fires after their hurricane. Submersion in salt water is bad for electronics.

[dgies9156]

Com-Ed was either lying or miscalculating.

Com-Ed lie? You mean, Nukie Nuke himself. The company that paid Mike Madigan enough to make Illinois its electric fiefdom?

Not Com-Ed? The guys and gals that had their CEO fired and convicted on public corruption charges?

The company that was charged with conspiring to cover up security breeches at its Cordova Nuclear Power Plant?

That Com-Ed, lie? Never!!!!!

... and Michael Madigan is a trustworthy public servant!

[rocky_warrior]

All right, I'll tell you why I'd buy an EV (I don't have one). If I can buy one that I can reserve the polarity and use it when the power goes off to run my house -- that Florida phenomenon called "Hurricanes" is real -- then OK, sold!

My house, by the way, is compliant with post-Homestead Florida building codes. Reinforced concrete walls, 150 mile-an-hour impact resistant windows. About the only burnable thing in here is the furnishings and the drywall!

Hah, I live in a mountainous area of high winds (a nearby road is name "hurricane hill").  But my house is made of sticks (still solid after 50 years) and surrounded by even more sticks (sometimes called pine trees).  So I get the backup power option!  Though if my house goes up in flames, likely it either came from the 100s of forest acres adjacent, or I've just been the one to ignite them! Yikes. 

[jesmu84]

All right, I'll tell you why I'd buy an EV (I don't have one). If I can buy one that I can reserve the polarity and use it when the power goes off to run my house -- that Florida phenomenon called "Hurricanes" is real -- then OK, sold!

My house, by the way, is compliant with post-Homestead Florida building codes. Reinforced concrete walls, 150 mile-an-hour impact resistant windows. About the only burnable thing in here is the furnishings and the drywall!

You can do that right now, today, with several different EVs

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

All right, I'll tell you why I'd buy an EV (I don't have one). If I can buy one that I can reserve the polarity and use it when the power goes off to run my house -- that Florida phenomenon called "Hurricanes" is real -- then OK, sold!

My house, by the way, is compliant with post-Homestead Florida building codes. Reinforced concrete walls, 150 mile-an-hour impact resistant windows. About the only burnable thing in here is the furnishings and the drywall!

I think it was Ford that was running commercials at Christmas time where the power went out on a family holiday dinner and they plugged their Ford in to continue the dinner party.