2023 Team Outlook

[brewcity77]

I think that was the plan right?  Carton left two weeks after Kolek committed.  Carton was a legit PG who could finish at the rim and IMO would have added a lot on the floor. (Not sure about in the locker room though.) 

I do believe that we could still have had Morsell since he was in his fifth year and the rosters temporarily expanded right?

Yes, the expectation was to have both Carton and Kolek in the backcourt and Morsell was planned all along. They knew Morsell was coming before DeAndre Haynes was hired (April 16) even though Morsell didn't officially commit until June 28. Perez (left on May 13) was the Morsell scholarship, though because Carton had also left we ended up with 12 instead of 13. We didn't have the option to add Morsell unless it kept us at 13 or fewer scholarships, the temporary expansion was only for players that exercised their COVID year at the same school.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yes, the expectation was to have both Carton and Kolek in the backcourt and Morsell was planned all along. They knew Morsell was coming before DeAndre Haynes was hired (April 16) even though Morsell didn't officially commit until June 28. Perez (left on May 13) was the Morsell scholarship, though because Carton had also left we ended up with 12 instead of 13. We didn't have the option to add Morsell unless it kept us at 13 or fewer scholarships, the temporary expansion was only for players that exercised their COVID year at the same school.

Ah...counting is such a lost art...

[Pakuni]

I asked Andrei at Paint Touches for the actual number breakdown in conference play. Here it is:

Catch and Shoot: 18/35 (51.4%)
Off the Dribble: 5/34 (14.7%)

It's not a small sample size, both figures are almost exactly half his conference three-point attempts. When he was set and the shot was created for him, Tyler was burn the building down hot. He was unquestionably elite. Damn near Markus in 2017 elite.

Well, except Markus shot 54.7% on all 150 of his three-point attempts in 2017, not 35 catch-and-shoot attempts in conference play only. It's light years from an apples-to-apples comparison. I suspect you know that already.

Unquestionably elite? How can we make that judgement if we don't compare it to catch-and-shoot stats from other players.
If you want to make the case that Kolek went from a dreadful three-point shooter early in the season to an OK one in conference play, that's fine. It certainly seems true. But the effort to rehabilitate his shooting performance to the point that he was "elite" at anything through cherry-picked stats doesn't hold up.

[MU82]

I asked Andrei at Paint Touches for the actual number breakdown in conference play. Here it is:

Catch and Shoot: 18/35 (51.4%)
Off the Dribble: 5/34 (14.7%)

It's not a small sample size, both figures are almost exactly half his conference three-point attempts. When he was set and the shot was created for him, Tyler was burn the building down hot. He was unquestionably elite. Damn near Markus in 2017 elite.

The problem was he was so bad off the dribble, and because those are ball-dominant possessions, they stand out more in the mind (player has the ball in his hand throughout the play rather than just from catch to release). They're also the possessions where you see the action as it builds, so you get that "no, no, no, dammit no!" mental buildup going on.

I think this is part of why people are so optimistic about Jones. Having another point guard that can share those duties and allow Kolek to do more catch and shoot and less pull up and wing it should make TK more efficient. Because the key to unlocking his game is about creating the right shots for him. He's already demonstrated ad nauseum that he can succeed when we do that.

Thanks for the info, brew. Very interesting.

But I do have to agree with Pakuni that taking 35 and making 18 over the course of 31 games hardly proves that a guy is "Damn near Markus in 2017 elite."

Shaka obviously has those numbers, too. (right?) We'll see what he does with them next season.

[GoldenEagles03]

Thanks for the info, brew. Very interesting.

But I do have to agree with Pakuni that taking 35 and making 18 over the course of 31 games hardly proves that a guy is "Damn near Markus in 2017 elite."

Shaka obviously has those numbers, too. (right?) We'll see what he does with them next season.

The problem was they didn't really have anyone else that could handle the ball last year.

[rocky_warrior]

option to add Morsell unless it kept us at 13 or fewer scholarships, the temporary expansion was only for players that exercised their COVID year at the same school.

I would have thought there would have been a way to classify Greg as a covid senior (extra scholarship) instead of the silly "redshirt junior" (which he also had in 20-21) classification.  But who knows, water under the bridge.

[brewcity77]

I would have thought there would have been a way to classify Greg as a covid senior (extra scholarship) instead of the silly "redshirt junior" classification.  But who knows, water under the bridge.

They never needed to find out thanks to Perez leaving when he did, but it would've been interesting. Based on my strict reading of the rules around it, I don't think it would've worked, but with the NCAA you never know.

[lawdog77]

Well, except Markus shot 54.7% on all 150 of his three-point attempts in 2017, not 35 catch-and-shoot attempts in conference play only. It's light years from an apples-to-apples comparison. I suspect you know that already.

Unquestionably elite? How can we make that judgement if we don't compare it to catch-and-shoot stats from other players.
If you want to make the case that Kolek went from a dreadful three-point shooter early in the season to an OK one in conference play, that's fine. It certainly seems true. But the effort to rehabilitate his shooting performance to the point that he was "elite" at anything through cherry-picked stats doesn't hold up.

The term elite is thrown around way too much.

[lawdog77]

Lunardi's updated bracket

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-projecting-2023-march-madness-men-field

[MU82]

Lunardi's updated bracket

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-projecting-2023-march-madness-men-field

First 4 out? And Lunardi calls himself an elite bracketologist!

[lawdog77]

First 4 out? And Lunardi calls himself an elite bracketologist!

He's no Jerry Palm. That's for sure.

[Pakuni]

First 4 out? And Lunardi calls himself an elite bracketologist!

Lunardi has joined the COLE.

[PointWarrior]

and if Marquette won't make it, at least Bucky wont either...

First 4 out? And Lunardi calls himself an elite bracketologist!

[Viper]

I asked Andrei at Paint Touches for the actual number breakdown in conference play. Here it is:

Catch and Shoot: 18/35 (51.4%)
Off the Dribble: 5/34 (14.7%)

It's not a small sample size, both figures are almost exactly half his conference three-point attempts. When he was set and the shot was created for him, Tyler was burn the building down hot. He was unquestionably elite. Damn near Markus in 2017 elite.

The problem was he was so bad off the dribble, and because those are ball-dominant possessions, they stand out more in the mind (player has the ball in his hand throughout the play rather than just from catch to release). They're also the possessions where you see the action as it builds, so you get that "no, no, no, dammit no!" mental buildup going on.

I think this is part of why people are so optimistic about Jones. Having another point guard that can share those duties and allow Kolek to do more catch and shoot and less pull up and wing it should make TK more efficient. Because the key to unlocking his game is about creating the right shots for him. He's already demonstrated ad nauseum that he can succeed when we do that.

I'm not Larry Bird on the shot, but don’t have to be …did anyone watch Kolek’s shot release? Ball rotation? Arc? All bad. Side release, side ball rotation w/a flat shot. All equals a poor shooter.  A shot that will rarely get the bounce.  Sure, he hit a shot from time to time, but nothing consistent. Catch & shoot means zip with what Kolek has going on. So…are we hoping this improves? Are we hoping the guy works to transform his shot this off season? IMO, Kolek is a back-up pg that’s starting. That’s too bad. MU needs an upgrade at this position. Maybe that upgrade is Kolek. But if the shot release remains as is, he is as he is.

[Small Orange Soda]

I'm not Larry Bird on the shot, but don’t have to be …did anyone watch Kolek’s shot release? Ball rotation? Arc? All bad. Side release, side ball rotation w/a flat shot. All equals a poor shooter.  A shot that will rarely get the bounce.  Sure, he hit a shot from time to time, but nothing consistent. Catch & shoot means zip with what Kolek has going on. So…are we hoping this improves? Are we hoping the guy works to transform his shot this off season? IMO, Kolek is a back-up pg that’s starting. That’s too bad. MU needs an upgrade at this position. Maybe that upgrade is Kolek. But if the shot release remains as is, he is as he is.

We could also just judge by the statistics laid out.

[panda]

If memory serves, the majority of his spot up 3’s came in the butler home game and home nova game.

The numbers are the numbers, but towards the end of the year, he passed up a lot of open looks and didn’t seem confident shooting the ball. I do question if that number is comprehensive enough to make such a strong claim.

I do agree with the original premise though. He (and the team) will be greatly served with him moving off the ball.

[GoldenEagles03]

Found this in my suggested lineup on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/3VD65FRowXE

I think we are underestimating what Kam Jones did this year and what he can be for this team.  Unanimous All Freshman off the bench isn't easy to do.

Also, not sure of the backup plan, but it looks like the last spot is being saved for Justin and appears that Ben Gold is the backup 5 beyond Oso.

With Gold at the 5, Marquette will have 5 players on the court capable of knocking down the 3. Has that ever happened at Marquette?

[tower912]

Buzz years.

[BrewCity83]

With Gold at the 5, Marquette will have 5 players on the court capable of knocking down the 3. Has that ever happened at Marquette?

I can't remember a time when we had 4...

[noblewarrior]

If Lewis does stay... I like Zack at the big guard position with Tyler as the primary ball handler, filling out the starting lineup w/O-Max and Ighodaro (he needs to toughen up under the basket though). 

I'd note, Morsell didn't arrive at MU as an outside threat but did contribute from distance... and his midrange appeared (no advanced fancy stuff here) great.  I'd like Zack to fill this void.  That's a rather big lineup w/ easy switches on D too.

 

[GoldenEagles03]

I can't remember a time when we had 4...

A roster with Jae Crowder had to be the closest. It will present a problem for defenses should Justin return.

Bench options capable of scoring from behind the arc would include:

Ellis, Mitchell, Jones, Ross, Joplin, Gold

6 guys off the bench that are capable of hitting an open jumpshot. Combine that with the 4 in the starting lineup (assuming Lewis returns) and we have 10 of 13 guys capable of hitting outside shots.

[wadesworld]

If Justin returns we return 4 players who shot over 32% from beyond the arc last season.  Of those 4, two of them attempted 0.6 three pointers per game.  I'm not sure I'm ready to say 10 of 13 of our players have the ability to shoot from distance.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

With Gold at the 5, Marquette will have 5 players on the court capable of knocking down the 3. Has that ever happened at Marquette?

I can't remember a time when we had 4...

Lineups? We had a 5 out lineup last year with Kolek, Jones, Morsell, O-Max, and Lewis. We've had a lineup like that almost every year. In terms of starters, the last time it was done was Lazar's senior year when we played the micro starting lineup. 11-12 may count too, we had 5 guys who could hit the three but three of them were not lights out that year. And who could forget Theo John shooting 75% from three in his senior year!

21-22: 4/5 starters who made 19+ threes (Kuath made 0)
20-21: 4/5 starters who made 26+ threes (and Theo shot the three at 75%!)
19-20: 4/5 starters who made 35+ threes (Theo made 0)
18-19: 4/5 starters who made 27+ threes (Theo made 0)
17-18: 3/5 starters who made 95+ threes (Sacar made 8 and Heldt made 0)
16-17: 3/5 starters who made 32+ threes (Haanif made 13 and Luke made 0)
15-16: 4/5 starters who made 22+ threes (Luke made 0)
14-15: 4/5 starters who made 16+ threes (Derrick made 9, Luke made 0)
13-14: 2/5 starters who made 32+ threes (Juan made 5, Derrick made 1, Otule made 0)
12-13: 1/5 starters who made 40 threes (Junior made 14, Lockett made 13, Juan made 12, Otule made 0)
11-12: 2/5 starters who made 61+ threes (Jamil made 10, Junior made 9, Vander made 8)
10-11: 4/5 starters who made 20+ threes (Otule made 0)
09-10: 5/5 starters who made 16+ threes

[GoldenEagles03]

Lineups? We had a 5 out lineup last year with Kolek, Jones, Morsell, O-Max, and Lewis. We've had a lineup like that almost every year. In terms of starters, the last time it was done was Lazar's senior year when we played the micro starting lineup. 11-12 may count too, we had 5 guys who could hit the three but three of them were not lights out that year. And who could forget Theo John shooting 75% from three in his senior year!

21-22: 4/5 starters who made 19+ threes (Kuath made 0)
20-21: 4/5 starters who made 26+ threes (and Theo shot the three at 75%!)
19-20: 4/5 starters who made 35+ threes (Theo made 0)
18-19: 4/5 starters who made 27+ threes (Theo made 0)
17-18: 3/5 starters who made 95+ threes (Sacar made 8 and Heldt made 0)
16-17: 3/5 starters who made 32+ threes (Haanif made 13 and Luke made 0)
15-16: 4/5 starters who made 22+ threes (Luke made 0)
14-15: 4/5 starters who made 16+ threes (Derrick made 9, Luke made 0)
13-14: 2/5 starters who made 32+ threes (Juan made 5, Derrick made 1, Otule made 0)
12-13: 1/5 starters who made 40 threes (Junior made 14, Lockett made 13, Juan made 12, Otule made 0)
11-12: 2/5 starters who made 61+ threes (Jamil made 10, Junior made 9, Vander made 8)
10-11: 4/5 starters who made 20+ threes (Otule made 0)
09-10: 5/5 starters who made 16+ threes

Gold probably won't be starting, so we won't see 5/5 starters this year, but interesting numbers.

I do like his skillset to compliment that of Oso.  A true modern day 6'11" stretch 5. With Itejere as a 3rd potential 4/5 it should give them the ability to be aggressive on the glass and defensively knowing they have the depth. Not sure what Itejere will bring offensively, if anything at all, but he will be able to block shots and rebound which is valuable.

[wadesworld]

Gold probably won't be starting, so we won't see 5/5 starters this year, but interesting numbers.

I do like his skillset to compliment that of Oso.  A true modern day 6'11" stretch 5. With Itejere as a 3rd potential 4/5 it should give them the ability to be aggressive on the glass and defensively knowing they have the depth. Not sure what Itejere will bring offensively, if anything at all, but he will be able to block shots and rebound which is valuable.

I would in no way describe Oso as a stretch anything.  In 2 seasons at Marquette he has attempted exactly 0 three pointers.  Defenses will ignore him on the perimeter, and they should.