Blue Ribbon Yearbook Top 25

[geps]

Here is Blue Ribbons preseason Top 25 from last season

https://blueribbonyearbook.com/blogs/news/arizona-tops-blue-ribbons-37th-annual-preseason-rankings

I count 6 non tournament teams that they thought were going to be really good before the season.

Ps Nova was 12......Xavier not in top 20.
 

Somehow they managed to be 1 seeds anyway.

Like those results. Blue Ribbon biased against Big East perhaps?

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Well the coaches poll not out yet. If you recall the thread started with the Blue Ribbon Yearbook's top 25 so used that.

Funny thing is you refute your own logic.
You say a power conference should have at least 3 teams in the top 25, yet in all the years you post the Big East only had 3 on two occasions.  Despite this pundits, commentators, computer rankings,  etc over the last number of years have had the BE near or as the strongest conference.  Hmm

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Well the coaches poll not out yet. If you recall the thread started with the Blue Ribbon Yearbook's top 25 so used that.

My question is why wouldn't you compare it to previous Blue Ribbon preseason top 25s? Blue Ribbon measures what it believes to be the top 25 basketball teams before a season starts. End of season coaches' polls are based on how the season actually played out. Meaning that if 8 of the best teams that season were in the ACC, likely only 4 of them are going to be in the top 25 because they beat up on each other. It's an apples to avocados comparison. Also, the AP poll is generally considered more accurate than the coaches poll.

[GGGG]

Cmon.  Are we still so insecure about the Big East?  It is by every meaningful metric, one of the top six leagues in the country.

[Silkk the Shaka]

All preseason rankings are flawed......including coaches polls and media polls. Which is why nobody should concern themselves with them

T-Rank is probably the 2nd best computer site after Pomeroy and in most cases their numbers are very similar(especially at the top)when the season is complete.

T-Rank had us 12 spots higher then Pomeroy at seasons end last year.  Fwiw

Didn't mean to disparage the site as a whole, I like it for what it is. I meant the pre-season prediction methodology is called into question with results like that.

Also LSU at #70 while Georgia's at #61? Bizarre.

[Marcus92]

Also the Big East has 10 teams. ACC with 16, B1G and SEC with 14 so you're not even comparing apples to apples.

Ding ding ding!!! I pay more attention to conference strength ratings than the number of teams in the Top 25. KenPom.com has ranked the Big East among the top 5 college basketball conferences every year since the realignment:

2013-14 5th
2014-15 2nd
2015-16 3rd
2016-17 3rd
2017-18 3rd

This might be somewhat of a down year. But I expect we'll still be solidly in the top 4 or 5. That's a far cry from the Atlantic 10 -- which was ranked 8th, 7th, 8th, 8th and 10th during the same 5-year period.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Didn't mean to disparage the site as a whole, I like it for what it is. I meant the pre-season prediction methodology is called into question with results like that.

Also LSU at #70 while Georgia's at #61? Bizarre.

Bart Torvik does a good job overall but like many other systems, it's metrics can spit out some very random isolated results some times. It's kind of like BPI saying Marquette is #4 or Wisconsin always finishing higher than expected in KenPom. Bart Torvik also often has accuracy issues with players. For example, on the LSU projection you mentioned, they are missing Top 100 freshman Darius Days and top 20 JUCO Dayna Kingsby.  Now that's not enough to justify having them at #70 but explains part of it.

[brewcity77]

Bart Torvik does a good job overall but like many other systems, it's metrics can spit out some very random isolated results some times. It's kind of like BPI saying Marquette is #4 or Wisconsin always finishing higher than expected in KenPom. Bart Torvik also often has accuracy issues with players. For example, on the LSU projection you mentioned, they are missing Top 100 freshman Darius Days and top 20 JUCO Dayna Kingsby.  Now that's not enough to justify having them at #70 but explains part of it.

Worth tweeting those misses at Bart. He's responsive and generally gets them fixed pretty quick.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Ding ding ding!!! I pay more attention to conference strength ratings than the number of teams in the Top 25. KenPom.com has ranked the Big East among the top 5 college basketball conferences every year since the realignment:

2013-14 5th
2014-15 2nd
2015-16 3rd
2016-17 3rd
2017-18 3rd

This might be somewhat of a down year. But I expect we'll still be solidly in the top 4 or 5. That's a far cry from the Atlantic 10 -- which was ranked 8th, 7th, 8th, 8th and 10th during the same 5-year period.

Agreed, here's how I'd rank them pre-season this year

1: SEC
2 (tie): ACC/B12
4: B10
(modest drop)
5: BE
(bigger drop)
6: P12
(much bigger drop)
7: MWC (only because of Nevada & San Diego St.)
8: American
9: WCC (only because of Gonzaga)
Vaguely 10-14: A10/MVC/MAC/Ivy/CUSA


So: in a down year, the Big East is likely to finish #5 with a wide gap between it and another power conference, a gaping chasm between it and any mid-major, and the grand canyon between it and the A10.

Put another way, the A10's best team (Dayton?), would be bottom half in this year's BEast, and their 2nd best team (SLU? VCU?) would be fighting DePaul to stay out of the basement.

We are nowhere near the A10. Kvetching over.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Bart Torvik does a good job overall but like many other systems, it's metrics can spit out some very random isolated results some times. It's kind of like BPI saying Marquette is #4 or Wisconsin always finishing higher than expected in KenPom. Bart Torvik also often has accuracy issues with players. For example, on the LSU projection you mentioned, they are missing Top 100 freshman Darius Days and top 20 JUCO Dayna Kingsby.  Now that's not enough to justify having them at #70 but explains part of it.

Good point, didn't think about likely personnel misses this early

[MU82]

Cmon.  Are we still so insecure about the Big East?  It is by every meaningful metric, one of the top six leagues in the country.

Given that I had never even heard of the Blue Ribbon Yearbook until I opened this thread, I certainly am not worried about what they think.

Otherwise, agree totally. Our conference earns its respect on the court year after year. And Marquette will be at the top of it this season, my friend!

[brewcity77]

Good point, didn't think about likely personnel misses this early

Torvik missed the starting PG for Presbyterian, which is part of why I'm bullish on them. He also missed a few for Bethune Cookman, which TAMU caught.

[WarriorDad]

OK
Some Research
Final Coaches Polls
Top 25 From Each Conference

       2014  2015   2016  2017   2018  2019(Blue Ribbon)

SEC    3        2         2        3       4        6     
ACC    5        7         6        5       5        7
BIG10 3        2         6        3       4        3
PAC10 3        3         3        3       0        2
BIG12 3        5         5        4       4        4
BE      2        3         2        3       2        1
AAC    2                             2       3

Are you really suggesting the Big East wasn't one of the top 3 conferences in at least 2 of the last 3 years when every ranking system to man kind said it was?

[muwarrior69]

Given that I had never even heard of the Blue Ribbon Yearbook until I opened this thread, I certainly am not worried about what they think.

Otherwise, agree totally. Our conference earns its respect on the court year after year. And Marquette will be at the top of it this season, my friend!

...and when the team can prove to me they can play defense I will agree with this assessment.

[geps]

Are you really suggesting the Big East wasn't one of the top 3 conferences in at least 2 of the last 3 years when every ranking system to man kind said it was?

No I am not, I am worried about trajectory. Hopefully the worry is unfounded but also not sure the BE getting the recruits it was getting even three years ago. When only 1 team is ranked in the preseason I think recruits take notice. Believe me I am not a BE hater, just worrier.

[GGGG]

No I am not, I am worried about trajectory. Hopefully the worry is unfounded but also not sure the BE getting the recruits it was getting even three years ago. When only 1 team is ranked in the preseason I think recruits take notice. Believe me I am not a BE hater, just worrier.

I don’t think they pay much attention to pre-season rankings.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

No I am not, I am worried about trajectory. Hopefully the worry is unfounded but also not sure the BE getting the recruits it was getting even three years ago. When only 1 team is ranked in the preseason I think recruits take notice. Believe me I am not a BE hater, just worrier.

If you are worried about trajectory, you don't have to be. While many teams took a step back this season because of abnormally high graduations, most of the Big East is taking a step forward next season because of abnormally low graduations.

[Galway Eagle]

No I am not, I am worried about trajectory. Hopefully the worry is unfounded but also not sure the BE getting the recruits it was getting even three years ago. When only 1 team is ranked in the preseason I think recruits take notice. Believe me I am not a BE hater, just worrier.

 

First Recruiting trends have stayed level:

Via 247 composite (keep in mind this list does not include grad and traditional transfers of which the conference has been cleaning up in)

2019: (in progress)
1 five stars
9 four stars

2018:
1 five star
12 four stars

2017:
0 five stars
12 four stars

2016:
1 five star
13 four stars

2015:
2 five stars
11 four stars

2014:
1 five star
19 four stars

2013:
0 five star
11 four stars

Second Conference rating via Real Time RPI:

2017-18
1     Big 12   
2     Big East   
3     Atlantic Coast   
4     Southeastern   
5     Pacific-12   
6     Big Ten   

2016-17
1 ACC
2 B12
3 BE
4 B10
5 SEC
6 P12

2015-16
1 B12
2 P12
3 ACC
4 BE
5 B10
6 SEC

2014-15
1 B12
2 BE
3 ACC
4 B10
5 P12
6 SEC

2013-14
1 B12
2 B10
3 P12
4 BE
5 ACC
6 A10

Third point is less of a comparison but general observation. As a conference we're coming off of a year where we had two no1 seeds and one of those won the championship so there's little to no reason for panic there.

I guess my point is if these were reports from a business what would inspire lack of confidence moving forward that you wouldn't invest? It seems to me like you're panicking based on a surface observation of what was lost through a very narrow lense and not focusing on what's been brought in. This is one Top 25 that others seem to have pointed out does not respect the BE often so deep breaths, look at the mainstream reports and stop comparing preseason reports to final polls from other companies as anybody in data analytics would tell you that's illogical for the point you were trying to prove

[milwaukee ex-pat]

Marquette ranked 25 per NBC
https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/09/24/2018-2019-college-basketball-preseason-top-25/

[brewcity77]

Marquette ranked 25 per NBC
https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/09/24/2018-2019-college-basketball-preseason-top-25/

Wow, that must mean 8 Big East teams in the top-25. 

[MU82]

Marquette ranked 25 per NBC
https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2018/09/24/2018-2019-college-basketball-preseason-top-25/

Seems fine, like all the others. Conversation pieces, nothing more. Nice to be in the conversation!

My favorite line appeared in the Duke preview:

There’s a non-zero chance that Barrett, Williamson and Reddish could end up going 1-2-3 in the 2019 NBA Draft.

I think he's saying they could be the top 3 NBA draft picks next season. There's a non-zero chance that he wasn't unsharp enough to not not say that.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wow, that must mean 8 Big East teams in the top-25. 

Amazing what happens when you don't have a Vadger grad write the article

[MUBigDance]

... Our conference earns its respect on the court year after year. ...

This is the key thought. Our conferences non-conference schedule needs to be significant. We need to schedule teams in the other top conferences and beat them.  And not the pansies (like the MAC football teams seem to always schedule the three weakest BIG teams every year).

I think the BE will show up every time and have a decent record...the worst thing we could do is avoid the better teams from the better conferences.

I really like that we play some significant teams this year....I know we have the sub-300 weaklings but our better games are the real deal. MU can make a statement for the BE.