Is College Football Going To Get Banned?

[GGGG]

Another Saturday, another NFL player killed.  Should we start taking bets on which NFL player is killed next Saturday and how?

Josh Brent arrested after fatal crash
http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/8726659/josh-brent-dallas-cowboys-arrested-intoxication-manslaughter-accident-kills-jerry-brown

This has nothing to do with concussions, it has everything to do with making NFL players unlikable.  It has everything to do with NFL players perceived to be a menace to society off the field.

This is another brick in the wall that leads to a peak in the NFL's popularity and a decline down the road.

You sound almost gleeful about this.  Are you going to troll the internet every weekend in hopes to find more news about NFL players behaving badly?

I mean, wait until one of their most marketable players gets caught in a dog fighting ring....  There is no way any team will ever sign that player again, give him a big contract, and make him marketable again.  Ratings for sure will start to dip then!!!!

[Pakuni]

You sound almost gleeful about this.  Are you going to troll the internet every weekend in hopes to find more news about NFL players behaving badly?

I mean, wait until one of their most marketable players gets caught in a dog fighting ring....  There is no way any team will ever sign that player again, give him a big contract, and make him marketable again.  Ratings for sure will start to dip then!!!!

Sure, sure. But that was dogs.
This is an NFL player charged with causing another's death. That's certain to destroy the league.
Like with these guys:





 

[GGGG]

Stop.  I think you are going to give Another a woody just looking at those NFL players who have behaved badly.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Another Saturday, another NFL player killed.  Should we start taking bets on which NFL player is killed next Saturday and how?

Josh Brent arrested after fatal crash
http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/8726659/josh-brent-dallas-cowboys-arrested-intoxication-manslaughter-accident-kills-jerry-brown

This has nothing to do with concussions, it has everything to do with making NFL players unlikable.  It has everything to do with NFL players perceived to be a menace to society off the field.

This is another brick in the wall that leads to a peak in the NFL's popularity and a decline down the road.

There are on average 29 people killed EVERY DAY of the year in this country as a result of drunk driving car crashes, the same accident that took the life of this Dallas Cowboy.

Maybe we should ban alcohol or driving, or both?


When you say things like it makes players unlikable....compared to whom?  Do you think a lot of people can't wait to get behind NBA players and their illegitimate kids, drug use, etc?  (just because some do it, doesn't mean they all do it) There are all kinds of the very issues you bring up about football that people are completely turned off with by hoops and their issues.  You can't isolate one and ignore the other.  At the end of the day was either player killed because of football?  Belcher had issues before he ever played one down of football in his life if you read the stories out this week.

I know you are latched on to this idea that NFL popularity is going to fall, but I'd like to know what is going to fill the void?  I see the numbers every day, it's part of my job.  We don't see NFL popularity waning at this point, at least not in terms of its relationship to other sports. Sure, ratings ebb and flow and popularity may come down but its not going to be at the expense of something else, certainly not basketball.  If anything ultimately kills sports, it will be the money.

[forgetful]

Chicos,

I'm not saying it should be banned.  But always citing this stuff happens everywhere is naive.  Yeah it happens everywhere, but look at statistics.

These type of violent events and grossly inappropriate behavior is rampant in the NFL (and MLB), they've created a culture that lacks accountability and encourages the use of substances that promote violent outbursts.  Couple that with brain injuries and you have a group of people incapable of functioning appropriately in society.

If these were isolated events every couple years not a big deal as statistically it is bound to happen, but year in and year out signifies a problem.

[Pakuni]

Chicos,

I'm not saying it should be banned.  But always citing this stuff happens everywhere is naive.  Yeah it happens everywhere, but look at statistics.

These type of violent events and grossly inappropriate behavior is rampant in the NFL (and MLB), they've created a culture that lacks accountability and encourages the use of substances that promote violent outbursts.  Couple that with brain injuries and you have a group of people incapable of functioning appropriately in society.

If these were isolated events every couple years not a big deal as statistically it is bound to happen, but year in and year out signifies a problem.

Define "rampant."
Also, in regards to the use of substances that promote violent outbursts do you:
1. Have any evidence that any of these violent outbursts are tied to such substances?
2. Any evidence that it's different today than 30-40 years ago when it was the Wild West when it comes to steroid use in the NFL?

[brewcity77]

NFL popularity will wane when the product does. It will take years or decades. However once insurance costs make Pop Warner cost-prohibitive, it will start to move up the chain. The NFL benefits greatly from having free minor leagues. If that goes away, it will put a massive dent in the NFL. Even if they begin handling their own farm system, a huge part of NFL popularity is the year-round nature of it. The popularity that occurs from February through April surrounding the draft. Take away the draft and you take away a lot of what has helped grow the NFL machine. I think a lot of people underestimate the importance of what goes on in that league from February through early August, and most of that is fueled by the existence of the college game. Take that away and you're cutting out the legs from under.

Again, most likely decades away, but the NFL will eventually fall. All sports do.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicos,

I'm not saying it should be banned.  But always citing this stuff happens everywhere is naive.  Yeah it happens everywhere, but look at statistics.

These type of violent events and grossly inappropriate behavior is rampant in the NFL (and MLB), they've created a culture that lacks accountability and encourages the use of substances that promote violent outbursts.  Couple that with brain injuries and you have a group of people incapable of functioning appropriately in society.

If these were isolated events every couple years not a big deal as statistically it is bound to happen, but year in and year out signifies a problem.

Do you know how many players actually suffer head injuries?  Most players never have a head injury.  Linemen and defensive linemen for examples. 

Look, the USA as a whole has created a culture where accountability isn't there.  We can use any number of examples daily in govt, corporate, personal behavior, parenting, etc.  the list is endless.

[Pakuni]

NFL popularity will wane when the product does. It will take years or decades. However once insurance costs make Pop Warner cost-prohibitive, it will start to move up the chain. The NFL benefits greatly from having free minor leagues. If that goes away, it will put a massive dent in the NFL. Even if they begin handling their own farm system, a huge part of NFL popularity is the year-round nature of it. The popularity that occurs from February through April surrounding the draft. Take away the draft and you take away a lot of what has helped grow the NFL machine. I think a lot of people underestimate the importance of what goes on in that league from February through early August, and most of that is fueled by the existence of the college game. Take that away and you're cutting out the legs from under.

The popularity of the draft is a relatively new phenomenon. It wasn't event televised until the early 1980s, and then (and for the next several years) it was a super low-budget production held in a hotel ballroom. Not suggesting that draft hoopla hasn't helped, but the league was well on its way to King of the Mountain status before anyone cared about the draft.
Also, baseball and hockey haven't been harmed by the lack of a significant college counterpart, and the NBA's popularity didn't suffer when many of its top draftees came straight from high school or, more recently, spent only one year in college. Take away college football, and there's still a draft. And people will still watch because most fans are interested to see who their NFL teams is selecting, not which college they're coming from.

Again, most likely decades away, but the NFL will eventually fall. All sports do.

They do?
Examples please (not counting those which ended in death of participants, of course).

[brewcity77]

The popularity of the draft is a relatively new phenomenon. It wasn't event televised until the early 1980s, and then (and for the next several years) it was a super low-budget production held in a hotel ballroom. Not suggesting that draft hoopla hasn't helped, but the league was well on its way to King of the Mountain status before anyone cared about the draft.

Not the 1980s I lived in. At that time, the NFL was big, but it wasn't close to what it is now. Not remotely. It was still competing with basketball and behind baseball. The draft and the development of the 365-day NFL cycle was what changed that, in my opinion. That, coupled with people following fantasy year-round propelled the NFL above the rest.

Also, baseball and hockey haven't been harmed by the lack of a significant college counterpart, and the NBA's popularity didn't suffer when many of its top draftees came straight from high school or, more recently, spent only one year in college. Take away college football, and there's still a draft. And people will still watch because most fans are interested to see who their NFL teams is selecting, not which college they're coming from.

I think you misunderstand my premise. There won't BE a draft for the NFL without the current youth system. If football goes away from Pop Warner, if it becomes too dangerous for high schools, and if insurance costs are too high for universities, NFL teams will have to have their own youth programs, similar to the European soccer leagues, and to a lesser extent, baseball. The draft is big because people have watched these guys play at a high level and because they can have an instant impact on the game. In Europe, they cultivate players from the time they are 8 years old. There is no draft to follow because of that. In baseball, guys often spend years in the farm system before having an impact.

The closest draft in terms of relevance is the NBA, but that isn't a weekend-long event, it's a couple hours on a Thursday. The draft is a massive spectacle for many reasons, and anyone who doesn't realize just how closely the NFL's rise in popularity from the late 1970s through today coupled with the advent and growth of the draft and fantasy creating a year-round NFL news cycle isn't paying attention.

They do? Examples please (not counting those which ended in death of participants, of course).

Sure. Boxing used to be the biggest sport in this country. So did baseball. In terms of football, the college game used to be more popular than the pro version. Or you could look at auto racing, which has waxed and waned. It was huge, it fell off (and Indy all but died), and then NASCAR grew again. In terms of growth, we see MMA starting to become more and more viable while other sports go away. It's cyclical. The NFL won't be immune to that.

[forgetful]

Do you know how many players actually suffer head injuries?  Most players never have a head injury.  Linemen and defensive linemen for examples. 

Look, the USA as a whole has created a culture where accountability isn't there.  We can use any number of examples daily in govt, corporate, personal behavior, parenting, etc.  the list is endless.

Given that damage to the brain cannot be determined until autopsy, your comment is at best incorrect and bordering on completely ignorant.

Leave politics out of this.

[Pakuni]

Not the 1980s I lived in. At that time, the NFL was big, but it wasn't close to what it is now. Not remotely. It was still competing with basketball and behind baseball. The draft and the development of the 365-day NFL cycle was what changed that, in my opinion. That, coupled with people following fantasy year-round propelled the NFL above the rest.

I think if you go back and track revenues, TV ratings, merchandise sales, etc. going back to the late 70s, you'd see that the growth of the NFL was far outpacing that of MLB  (except for a brief downturn after the '82 strike). Hence, my statement that the NFL was "well on its way" to being king.
For example, look no further than the Super Bowl. the five most watched Super Bowls, in terms of share, occurred between 1978 and 1986 - a time when you think it's dominance had yet to even begin. Of the 12 most watched Super Bowls, which are among the 25 most watched TV programs ever, only one occurred after 1994.
So, yeah, the NFL was well on its way to dominance before the draft was a big deal. Not suggesting the draft (and fantasy, which you tossed in and seems irrelevant to whether high school and college ball continues) don't help, but clearly they were not THE driving factors.

I think you misunderstand my premise. There won't BE a draft for the NFL without the current youth system.

You're conflating issues here.
The reason there are drafts here, and not drafts in Europe, isn't because of the respective youth systems. It's because that's how those professional systems have chosen to operate. There's nothing about the American youth system that necessitates a draft. That's simply the method by which league owners (with their respective PAs) have chosen to proceed with player entry.
I'm not sure how wiping out Pop Warner would eliminate the NFL Draft.

Sure. Boxing used to be the biggest sport in this country. So did baseball. In terms of football, the college game used to be more popular than the pro version. Or you could look at auto racing, which has waxed and waned. It was huge, it fell off (and Indy all but died), and then NASCAR grew again. In terms of growth, we see MMA starting to become more and more viable while other sports go away. It's cyclical. The NFL won't be immune to that.

The third Pacquiao vs Marquez fight generated 1.3 million pay-per-view buys, numbers that were expected to be replicated by last night's fight, at $60 (standard) to $70 (HD) per pop. The gate for last night's fight was over $10.5 million. ESPN broke into its programming for live updates of the fight. Fights at Cowboy Stadium have drawn 50,000 fans paying more than $100 per ticket.
Hardly seems to be a dead sport.
Yeah, it's popularity has fallen off, but that's not result of some magical sports cycle. It's the result of specific decisions by the people who run the sport to make it less accessible and interesting to the general public (i.e. PPV, competing organizations, crappy fights, etc.).

Auto racing is something I could go on for a while with as well, but suffice to say it - and especially Indy racing - also is not victim of magic cycle. It's a victim of greed and stupidity by Tony George.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Given that damage to the brain cannot be determined until autopsy, your comment is at best incorrect and bordering on completely ignorant.

Leave politics out of this.

Uhm, wrong.  Brain damage can be determined before an autopsy, it is done all the time in modern medicine with living patients.  They've been doing this for decades.  So my comment is not incorrect and certainly not ignorant.

As for the politics comment, I don't think I went there at all.  There are examples of people, institutions, etc, not taking accountability in all walks of life and more so in our society today then generations past.  That is not even questionable at any level. 

[ATL MU Warrior]

I think if you go back and track revenues, TV ratings, merchandise sales, etc. going back to the late 70s, you'd see that the growth of the NFL was far outpacing that of MLB  (except for a brief downturn after the '82 strike). Hence, my statement that the NFL was "well on its way" to being king.
For example, look no further than the Super Bowl. the five most watched Super Bowls, in terms of share, occurred between 1978 and 1986 - a time when you think it's dominance had yet to even begin. Of the 12 most watched Super Bowls, which are among the 25 most watched TV programs ever, only one occurred after 1994.
So, yeah, the NFL was well on its way to dominance before the draft was a big deal. Not suggesting the draft (and fantasy, which you tossed in and seems irrelevant to whether high school and college ball continues) don't help, but clearly they were not THE driving factors.

Bold is incorrect.  The last two or maybe three Super Bowls have each set a record for most watched television program in history per Nielsen. 

[Pakuni]

Bold is incorrect.  The last two or maybe three Super Bowls have each set a record for most watched television program in history per Nielsen. 

In terms of sheer numbers. Not in terms of  percent of households. I made note of the fact I was talking about share in the sentence above the one you put in bold.
More people watched the more recent games because there are millions more people watching TV in 2012 than were in 1982.

Of course, I may be a fool for relying on Wikipedia for anything.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_watched_television_broadcasts

[ATL MU Warrior]

In terms of sheer numbers. Not in terms of  percent of households. I made note of the fact I was talking about share in the sentence above the one you put in bold.
More people watched the more recent games because there are millions more people watching TV in 2012 than were in 1982.

Of course, I may be a fool for relying on Wikipedia for anything.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_watched_television_broadcasts

Yes, I reread after posting and figured you meant share.  My bad.

Different world back in the '80s and '90s in terms of fragmentation of audience/proliferation of viewing options. 

[brewcity77]

So the contention is that every sport has either maintained or gained in popularity? Really? That's simply ludicrous. Boxing is as big as ever becaus LW of Pacqiao Marquez? Really? I may not vividly remember the 1960s and 70s (and earlier) but contending boxing hasn't fallen miles off where it once was is simply daft. Sports wax and wane. That's just reality, I don't really think it's a debatable point.

[Pakuni]

So the contention is that every sport has either maintained or gained in popularity? Really? That's simply ludicrous. Boxing is as big as ever becaus LW of Pacqiao Marquez? Really? I may not vividly remember the 1960s and 70s (and earlier) but contending boxing hasn't fallen miles off where it once was is simply daft. Sports wax and wane. That's just reality, I don't really think it's a debatable point.

Ummm, yeah. I said nothing like any of the statements above.
And declaring your point "reality" and "not debateable" = Danth's Law (i.e. If you have to insist that you've won an Internet argument, you've probably lost badly.)

But if sports popularity is cyclical, should we expect the return of chariot races? And when will boxing and horse racing return to eminence?

[Benny B]

Yes, I reread after posting and figured you meant share.  My bad.

Different world back in the '80s and '90s in terms of fragmentation of audience/proliferation of viewing options. 

Not to mention that the Super Bowl is now being broadcast to 28,345 countries now... it was only available in three just a couple of decades ago.

[ChicosBailBonds]

So the contention is that every sport has either maintained or gained in popularity? Really? That's simply ludicrous. Boxing is as big as ever becaus LW of Pacqiao Marquez? Really? I may not vividly remember the 1960s and 70s (and earlier) but contending boxing hasn't fallen miles off where it once was is simply daft. Sports wax and wane. That's just reality, I don't really think it's a debatable point.

Cyclical, but to a degree.  Baseball and football have dominated the most popular sports in the USA for many decades.  Soccer remains the most popular world wide.  Their level of popularity may rise and fall some, but that doesn't mean something else supplants it. 

I'm a passionate hockey fan, I don't think it will ever be #1 in the USA and will likely always be #4.  Boxing and horse racing used to be very relevant in the US sports scene, but I don't see them coming back.  UFC has done quite well, but one would argue (rightly in my opinion) that they are probably at their zenith or close to it. 

I agree with your earlier posts that the NFL has benfitted from a free minor leagues, no question about it.  On the other hand, that college football system has benefitted many colleges also.  I just don't see anything remotely on the horizon where college football goes away or is diminished in any sense where it ends up hurting the NFL.  On Pop Warner and high school football, more popular than ever.  Yes there are issues of concern, insurance rates are going up (where are they NOT going up...we live in a litigious society) but participation remains strong.  Pop Warner uses weight limits and severely curtails hitting in practice.  They are going to do what they need to in order to protect the kids in my view. As long as the kids and parents feel safe, they'll keep playing.  I honestly have seen more of a concern out here about little league, Pony ball and even soccer than football.  In soccer, no one is protected and there have been some really serious injuries.  My son is goal keeper and I hold my breath on every corner kick with some of these guys barreling in on him.  Baseball, the emergence of the composite bats and subsequent reduction of their use...the distance of the pitching mound hasn't changed despite bigger, stronger kids at younger ages.  There are risks everywhere.

[forgetful]

Uhm, wrong.  Brain damage can be determined before an autopsy, it is done all the time in modern medicine with living patients.  They've been doing this for decades.  So my comment is not incorrect and certainly not ignorant.

As for the politics comment, I don't think I went there at all.  There are examples of people, institutions, etc, not taking accountability in all walks of life and more so in our society today then generations past.  That is not even questionable at any level. 

The type of damage that everyone refers to with sports athletes cannot be determined ante-mortem.  It has to be determined from autopsy.

[Pakuni]

The type of damage that everyone refers to with sports athletes cannot be determined ante-mortem.  It has to be determined from autopsy.

Yes and no.
You're likely referring to CTE, which cannot be determined until post-mortem.
But there are other brain conditions that can be suffered by athletes that are diagnosed before death, such as Alzheimer's and ALS.

[brewcity77]

Ummm, yeah. I said nothing like any of the statements above.
And declaring your point "reality" and "not debateable" = Danth's Law (i.e. If you have to insist that you've won an Internet argument, you've probably lost badly.)

But if sports popularity is cyclical, should we expect the return of chariot races? And when will boxing and horse racing return to eminence?

I don't mean the same sports wax and wane, I mean sports rise and fall in popularity. And if you think there's a legitimate argument that boxing hasn't fallen massively in popularity...well, cite any Internet law you like, but I don't think you'll find many people to support you on that one.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Not to mention that the Super Bowl is now being broadcast to 28,345 countries now... it was only available in three just a couple of decades ago.

the Super Bowl set a record for highest viewed TV show in history for three years running in the US.  To my knowledge, Nielsen doesn't measure foreign viewership at all so has nothing to do with the # of countries in which the game is broadcast.  If I knew how to link it I would.

[Tugg Speedman]

One page ago

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=32449.msg424755#msg424755

the NFL (if measured by ratings) peaked in the late 1970s.

The 1978 Superbowl had 78 million viewers
The 2005 Superbowl had 86 million viewers
The 2012 Superbowl had 115 million viewers

Or

1983 Superbowl viewed by 40 million households
2001 Superbowl viewed by 40 million households
2012 Superbowl viewed by 55 million households

So the NFL stagnated for a long time until it started back up.