Marquette "What Ifs"

[Uncle Rico]

Al McGuire didn’t coach in the modern era of college basketball.  Argue about what the modern era is.  Post-Magic/Bird, expansion of TV coverage, March Madness expansion, whatever, but he retired at the end of an era or the beginning of the end.

Marquette’s problem post-Al was trying to find the next Al.  Find the next great coach.  We’re 45 years post-Al and we’re still talking about him and some are trying to find another Al. 

[Herman Cain]

How about this for a What if? What if Mickey Crowe did not have a substance abuse problem and attended MU ?

[Billy Hoyle]

Private schools have won 4 (FIXED) of the last 6 championships.  There was a long public university streak that preceded it and publics have dominated the championships overall.

edit: i just eyeballed the results (private listed out of obviously 10)...looks like its always been a certain way, but if you widen out to final fours maybe it tells a different story.

40s - 1
50s - 3 (although CCNY should be an honorary 4th)
60s - 3
70s - 1
80s - 2
90s - 2
00s - 2
10s - 4

also, look at if those private schools were Power 5 football schools. Hopefully we can join Nova and be an outlier.

Only two non-Power 5, non-football private schools have won national titles since MU did: Nova (3) and Georgetown (1). Only seven have lost title game since 1977: Georgetown (1982 and 1985), Seton Hall (1989), Butler (2010, 2011), Gonzaga (2017, 2021).

I consider the turning point was 1984 in NCAA v. Board or Oklahoma Regents, which allowed conferences to sell broadcast rights to football. That started the massive revenue streams to conferences.

[JWags85]

How about this for a What if? What if Mickey Crowe did not have a substance abuse problem and attended MU ?

Pretty sure even if he was sober as a judge in all facets of life, he would have never been recruited by, much less attended MU.  He was a one dimensional small-school/weak competition gunner whose legend and mystique far outstripped his actual college potential.

Much more Cam Ward than Sam Okey/Sam Dekker

[Hards Alumni]

Al McGuire didn’t coach in the modern era of college basketball.  Argue about what the modern era is.  Post-Magic/Bird, expansion of TV coverage, March Madness expansion, whatever, but he retired at the end of an era or the beginning of the end.

Marquette’s problem post-Al was trying to find the next Al.  Find the next great coach.  We’re 45 years post-Al and we’re still talking about him and some are trying to find another Al.

100%.  And I consider the addition of the 3 point line to be modern basketball... that or the 1984 draft.  You had big names like Magic and Bird, but then Jordan, Olajuwon, Barkley, and Stockton... followed quickly by the 1985 draft which had Ewing, Mullin, Malone (Karl), and Dumars. 

[Galway Eagle]

also, look at if those private schools were Power 5 football schools. Hopefully we can join Nova and be an outlier.

Only two non-Power 5, non-football private schools have won national titles since MU did: Nova (3) and Georgetown (1). Only seven have lost title game since 1977: Georgetown (1982 and 1985), Seton Hall (1989), Butler (2010, 2011), Gonzaga (2017, 2021).

I consider the turning point was 1984 in NCAA v. Board or Oklahoma Regents, which allowed conferences to sell broadcast rights to football. That started the massive revenue streams to conferences.

If we stop at final fours instead of championships, non power 5 private schools have been trending toward for representation for the past decade though.

1970s: Villanova, Notre Dame, Marquette x2, Depaul, Providence. St Bonaventure. Non football hitters Jacksonville, UNC Charlotte (no team back then), Penn

1980s: Georgetown x3, Seton Hall, St Johns, Villanova, Providence

1990s:

2000s: Us, Georgetown, Villanova, non football George Mason

2010s: Butler 2x, Loyola, Villanova 2x, Gonzaga. non football VCU & Wichita St

2020s: Gonzaga

it seems like at least making the final four is trending back toward being more likely for smaller schools compared to the lull in the 90s and 2000s.

[GooooMarquette]

Okay, I'm going to be that guy.  It is perfectly fine to call people Black or Black Americans.  'African-Americans' is such a weird thing to say.  It assumes a lot about a person.  Someone may be very dark skinned and yet may not be "African-American".  I know people who don't identify as African American... His family is from the Bahamas, and so he doesn't consider his lineage to be African American.

We don't refer to Elon Musk as an African American... despite the fact that he clearly is.  Africa is an enormous country with a ton of diversity.

IMO, retire "African-American" from your vocabulary if you can... unless someone refers to themselves that way or asks to be referred to in that way, it can be very assuming.

Now, before I get called names like "wokey" (???????) I'm not saying you CAN'T call people African American, I'm only pointing out that not every Black person considers themselves African American.

Totally agree. I had a friend years back who was from Trinidad, and was strongly opposed to being called African-American.

Granted, his ancestors probably got to Trinidad directly from Africa. But if you go back far enough, that can be said of everyone on the planet.

[Uncle Rico]

100%.  And I consider the addition of the 3 point line to be modern basketball... that or the 1984 draft.  You had big names like Magic and Bird, but then Jordan, Olajuwon, Barkley, and Stockton... followed quickly by the 1985 draft which had Ewing, Mullin, Malone (Karl), and Dumars.

3-pt line and shot clock are a good demarcation as well.  Things that were going to ruin the game

[Galway Eagle]

Totally agree. I had a friend years back who was from Trinidad, and was strongly opposed to being called African-American.

Granted, his ancestors probably got to Trinidad directly from Africa. But if you go back far enough, that can be said of everyone on the planet.

There was a conversation on here awhile back about how people from North Africa shouldnt be checking the box for African American and people from Spain shouldn't be checking Hispanic. Whether you agree or disagree with that the conversation certainly showed that African American doesn't actually mean "African American" it refers to 5 & 6 on the Fitzpatrick scale.

[Scoop Snoop]

If we stop at final fours instead of championships, non power 5 private schools have been trending toward for representation for the past decade though.

1970s: Villanova, Notre Dame, Marquette x2, Depaul, Providence. St Bonaventure. Non football hitters Jacksonville, UNC Charlotte (no team back then), Penn

1980s: Georgetown x3, Seton Hall, St Johns, Villanova, Providence

1990s:

2000s: Us, Georgetown, Villanova, non football George Mason

2010s: Butler 2x, Loyola, Villanova 2x, Gonzaga. non football VCU & Wichita St

2020s: Gonzaga

it seems like at least making the final four is trending back toward being more likely for smaller schools compared to the lull in the 90s and 2000s.

Thanks for pointing out non FB public schools. By including them, I think you gave us a fairer comparison of private schools AND non FB public schools vs. the super rich big FB schools in the FF. Gasaway made a point of the FF desert in the 1990's for the Catholic schools in Miracles on the Hardwood. I like his son's suggestion for the title better though- Holy Shot!

[GooooMarquette]

There was a conversation on here awhile back about how people from North Africa shouldnt be checking the box for African American and people from Spain shouldn't be checking Hispanic. Whether you agree or disagree with that the conversation certainly showed that African American doesn't actually mean "African American" it refers to 5 & 6 on the Fitzpatrick scale.

That may be true...but when some people who are called that are offended by the term, it might be time to retire it.

Anyway, we digress....

[Avenue Commons]

Brother Herm:

If I had to do an MBA strategy thesis again, I would love to do the demise of the Marquette basketball program, 1977-2020. I think Marquette's demise is a combination of an inherent frugality coupled with a series of bad decisions, inability to fully grasp the changing landscape of college athletics, the rise of competitive businesses (aka, the Big East, Part 1 and about 200 other basketball playing universities), failure to recognize the strategic importance of basketball to your core stakeholders and customers.

The list goes on. MU took a brand name College Basketball program, a blue blood if you will, and damn near destroyed it. I'm amazed there is still as much loyalty to the program as there is. Hopefully, Shaka leverages it and what we've done to rebuild and recreates the legend.

It wasn't that MU was cheap during much of this, but that they needed the cash. That was particularly the case with the Medical School, now Medical College of Wisconsin. If MU had a medical school we'd be a Top 50 university.

[The Equalizer]

I agree with this but I will add that Al doesn't get enough credit for being a major change agent in this shift. First, we know the history of Marquette jersey's as a national  marketing tool. Second, being an independent, Marquette was on national TV frequently via independent sports syndicated networks whereas as conference media was local or regional with radio most prominent. Third, when Al switched to announcing, his emotional storytelling created characters that increased fan engagement: Ray Meyer, Digger, Magic vs. Bird, the coaches, the Syracuse dance, the sayings like The Big Dance, even Dicky V.

Thus, you see the Big East conference formed backed by TV, timed with cable. Uniform sales and marketing exploding and now we have NIL. Coaches as multi-millionaires (Al knew his worth and advocated for coaching tenure). The football conferences creating their own media assets, etc.

I honestly think only Dick Enberg gave Al his full due for being a visionary beyond his primary basketball job that we revere him for. His bigger contributions to the sport may have been as AD and announcer than basketball coach.

The biggest "what if" then is, after he left, MU completely whiffed on this sea change Al revolutionized. MU held the Golden Nugget but played the copper penny.

Here's how I see the various macro events in college basketball and their impact on MU over the years. 


1. Decision to allow multiple teams from a conference in the NCAA tournament.

First, it obviously decreased NCAA chances for independents. Instead of MU competing against other independents for multiple NCAA bids, we were now going up against much stiffer competition in the form of the top non-tournament teams from other major conferences--many of which were better than the other top independents.

This had a secondary impact of encouraging schools that had been perennial also-rans in their conference to invest in their basketball program, as an NCAA bid as a non-champion was an achievable goal whereas a conference champion may not have been achievable (examples: Michigan State, Arizona).

Another secondary impact is that the best players widened the list of teams they would consider, as more teams could present themselves as legitimate tourhament teams.  Take the example of Arizona.  Prior to 1985, they had three tournament experiences in school history.  Recruits knew that UCLA under Wooden (and even after) was going to get the Pac 10's bid, so if you wanted to play for a championship, you looked elsewhere.  When Arizona could make the tournament without winning the league title, it opened them to be considered by more players.

2. The NCAA tournament expansion, increased television revenue, and the economic impact of receiving a bid

The NCAA's development of March Madness and the NCAA tournament exacerbated these trends from point #1 above.  There was significantly more incentive for schools to take their basketball programs seriously, dramatically changing the competitive playing field to the detriment of Marquette and other smallish, private schools.

3. MU's approach to conferences compared to Xavier/Bulter/Gonzaga, etc. 

MU took the approach that if we beefed up our schedule (through strong conference opponents), we would increase our chance of getting into the tournament as an at-large, non-champion team.   Hence moving through the MCC, GMC, CUSA, old BE, newBE.   

Xavier, Butler and Gonzaga all took the approach to leverage a weak conference and perennially earn the automatic bid from the MCC/Horizon, A10 or WCC.

Xavier and Butler obviously later joined the BE, but only after they became recognized as legitimate national powers.  Gonzaga became a power in a weak conference, and they have separated themselves as an elite team.  They didn't need a strong conference.

Also arguably, Butler (and to a lesser extent Xavier) have taken a step back in terms of overall tournament success after joining the Big East. 
 
4. The Big East's massive TV contract

While many argue this has been positive for MU, I believe it has enabled non-competitive teams (Seton Hall, Providence, St. Johns) to dramatically increase their basketball investment, and thus become competitive and relevant.  This has been good from a *conference* perspective but makes it harder for MU to stand apart from the rest of the league.   

[alexius23]

What if Jim Chones, Larry McNeil & Maurice Lucas all played together?

[dgies9156]

What if Jim Chones, Larry McNeil & Maurice Lucas all played together?

Please see below from my What ifs....

4) What if ... Neither Larry McNeill or Jim Chones would have turned pro?

We probably would have had a three year run as national champions. In 1973, we would have had a front line of Chones, McNeill and a young Maurice Lucas.

As to the transition to the modern game, there were several horrible mistakes made by Marquette.

1) They thought the merry go round would never end. That Hank Raymonds and Al McGuire were interchangeable. Suffice to say, they weren't.

2) They didn't try hard enough to dissuade Al from retiring. He was his own guy but he also was the single most important employee of Marquette University, possibly in its history. If I'm Father Raynor, I'm in his office every week. I'm also figuring out a way to stay ahead of the curve.

3) Had Al stayed, he would have adapted. Dean Smith did. Coach K did. Denny Crum did. Even Digger did.

4) We should have built the Al Center a decade sooner than we did.

[Galway Eagle]

We would have still had a three year run as national champions. In 1973, we would have had a front line of Walton, Swen and a young Dave Myers. Plus senior Jamaal Wilkes to their Chones McNeil and young Lucas

This is the UCLA version of this post.

[dgies9156]

This is the UCLA version of this post.

Damn, that would have been a great game!

[dgies9156]

Here's how I see the various macro events in college basketball and their impact on MU over the years. 


1. Decision to allow multiple teams from a conference in the NCAA tournament.

First, it obviously decreased NCAA chances for independents. Instead of MU competing against other independents for multiple NCAA bids, we were now going up against much stiffer competition in the form of the top non-tournament teams from other major conferences--many of which were better than the other top independents.

This had a secondary impact of encouraging schools that had been perennial also-rans in their conference to invest in their basketball program, as an NCAA bid as a non-champion was an achievable goal whereas a conference champion may not have been achievable (examples: Michigan State, Arizona).

Another secondary impact is that the best players widened the list of teams they would consider, as more teams could present themselves as legitimate tourhament teams.  Take the example of Arizona.  Prior to 1985, they had three tournament experiences in school history.  Recruits knew that UCLA under Wooden (and even after) was going to get the Pac 10's bid, so if you wanted to play for a championship, you looked elsewhere.  When Arizona could make the tournament without winning the league title, it opened them to be considered by more players.

2. The NCAA tournament expansion, increased television revenue, and the economic impact of receiving a bid

The NCAA's development of March Madness and the NCAA tournament exacerbated these trends from point #1 above.  There was significantly more incentive for schools to take their basketball programs seriously, dramatically changing the competitive playing field to the detriment of Marquette and other smallish, private schools.

3. MU's approach to conferences compared to Xavier/Bulter/Gonzaga, etc. 

MU took the approach that if we beefed up our schedule (through strong conference opponents), we would increase our chance of getting into the tournament as an at-large, non-champion team.   Hence moving through the MCC, GMC, CUSA, old BE, newBE.   

Xavier, Butler and Gonzaga all took the approach to leverage a weak conference and perennially earn the automatic bid from the MCC/Horizon, A10 or WCC.

Xavier and Butler obviously later joined the BE, but only after they became recognized as legitimate national powers.  Gonzaga became a power in a weak conference, and they have separated themselves as an elite team.  They didn't need a strong conference.

Also arguably, Butler (and to a lesser extent Xavier) have taken a step back in terms of overall tournament success after joining the Big East. 
 
4. The Big East's massive TV contract

While many argue this has been positive for MU, I believe it has enabled non-competitive teams (Seton Hall, Providence, St. Johns) to dramatically increase their basketball investment, and thus become competitive and relevant.  This has been good from a *conference* perspective but makes it harder for MU to stand apart from the rest of the league.   

This is right-on. You manage for the environment you are in and expect to be in. The fact is we failed to read the tea leaves after Coach McGuire left us. I believe Al would have managed the change effectively. He had a strong network and excellent instincts.

Coach Raymond's was old school. He had a great coaching mind and was very fatherly to his players. He was not the visionary that would take Marquette through the 1980s. We needed a tough as steel, take no prisoners leader who could adapt and relate to the 1980s generation. We did not get it.

Thats in the past and we all hope we have the right guy now.

[TheTulsaWarrior]

Here's hoping Shaka Smart is the man to figure out the moving target of the 2020s and NIL.