COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[TSmith34, Inc.]

At press conference today medical team from UPMC said the virus seems to be weakening and new infections do not seem to be near as potent as original rounds of infection.

For those that know more then I, did the SARS outbreak really just kind of disappear over time and could that possibly happen with this strain of coronavirus.  Works it way through a couple mutations and then just runs out of gas?

Is there anything showing that the virus is actually mutating and weakening? And/or how much is a function of viral loads being decreased with better procedures and precautions in place?

If the virus is mutating and weakening, does that have any impact on the effectiveness on the vaccines?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Is there anything showing that the virus is actually mutating and weakening? And/or how much is a function of viral loads being decreased with better procedures and precautions in place?

If the virus is mutating and weakening, does that have any impact on the effectiveness on the vaccines?

Scott gottleib spoke about this topic.  His opinion is that the mutations have not changed the behavior or strength of the virus.  That is good for vaccine because if it changed it may impact development. 

The anecdotal items on strength (Italy was the one brought up) he chalked up to the season, better treatment and less crowding in hot spots (sick coming in earlier). 

[GooooMarquette]

I just watched the UPMC press conference. The doc referred to evidence out of Italy that the virus may be weakening, but he didn’t go into any detail. When I looked for news about this, it seems the Italian theory goes against what many in the international medical community believe. I guess time will tell.

But there still was some very good news. He explained that the patients they’re seeing have lower viral loads than previously, and the collective outcomes are becoming less severe.

Just a hunch, but the lower viral load could very well be the result of mask use and social distancing, which we did not have early in the pandemic. And the less severe outcomes may well be a combination of lower viral loads and improved knowledge about how to treat patients effectively.

Those things alone are incredibly good news. If the virus is also mutating to become less potent, that would be even better.

[pbiflyer]

UPMC?

[GooooMarquette]

UPMC?

University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. Excellent reputation.

[pbiflyer]

University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. Excellent reputation.

Thanks. Hopefully true. Will be interesting to see the reason. Second place to note this.

[MU82]

Here's what's going on in the great state of North Carolina. I wish it were better news ...

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article243299221.html?

The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 in North Carolina each day has crept up in the last two weeks, and some doctors worry it may be a sign of things to come.

The hospitalization numbers reported by the state Department of Health and Human Services fluctuate from day to day, but from mid-April to mid-May they mostly remained between 400 and 550.

But since May 25, Memorial Day, an average of 671 people a day have been hospitalized with COVID-19 statewide, with the number exceeding 700 four times and hitting a new high of 717 on Friday.

Dr. David Wohl, an infectious disease physician at the UNC School of Medicine in Chapel Hill, says new coronavirus cases can vary with the number of people tested and that counting people who end up in the hospital is a more straightforward measure of the outbreak.

“I think that’s really the truest canary in the coal mine for us,” Wohl said this week. “If we’re seeing people get sick enough to be admitted to the hospital, that’s telling you we have not flattened the curve. So this is the best indicator, I think, that we have of where we are with the pandemic. So it is concerning to me.”

Wohl, who helps run a coronavirus diagnostic center at UNC Medical Center, said hospitalization numbers show the extent of the virus two to three weeks earlier, because it generally takes that long for an infected person to get sick enough to need hospital care. He worries the trend will continue upward because of what’s happened since Memorial Day weekend.

“I think if we’re going to see an uptick due to reopening, due to the protests that we’re seeing, it’s not going to be tomorrow, it’s going to be another two to three weeks from now,” he said.

The governor put our re-opening in Phase 2 on May 22. That let most restaurants, breweries and similar establishments be open at 50% capacity. Many other businesses that had been shuttered also were allowed to re-open. So today is exactly 14 days later. And of course, the protests started about a week ago.

We have several major metro areas here, topped by Charlotte, the nation's 15th-largest city; Raleigh-Durham; Greensboro; and Winston-Salem. None of them are NY or Chi or LA, but there are a lot of people living (and breathing) in close quarters here.

[GooooMarquette]

Hope things turn around there soon, 82.

Up until a few days ago Minnesota seemed to be increasing in lockstep with North Carolina, but it appears we may have reached the peak May 29th or 30th.

[MU82]

Hope things turn around there soon, 82.

Up until a few days ago Minnesota seemed to be increasing in lockstep with North Carolina, but it appears we may have reached the peak May 29th or 30th.

Thanks Gooooooooooooooo.

I think the next two weeks will be pretty important here, because of the timing of the state re-opening the economy. If things get worse, it will be pretty easy to make a direct correlation, and the last thing we need is have to go back to more strict mitigation. And the next-to-last thing would be to maintain this status quo and not be able to open up more.

[pacearrow02]

Thanks Gooooooooooooooo.

I think the next two weeks will be pretty important here, because of the timing of the state re-opening the economy. If things get worse, it will be pretty easy to make a direct correlation, and the last thing we need is have to go back to more strict mitigation. And the next-to-last thing would be to maintain this status quo and not be able to open up more.

You think the possible uptick in a couple weeks would be a result of reopening economy with safety measures in place  or the protests?  Not sure if there have been a bunch in NC but Fauci said protests are a perfect storm for spreading the virus.

[MU82]

You think the possible uptick in a couple weeks would be a result of reopening economy with safety measures in place  or the protests?  Not sure if there have been a bunch in NC but Fauci said protests are a perfect storm for spreading the virus.

I absolutely think both.

Just based on what I've read, 14-21 days seems to be kind of the "magic range." This week will fall in that range after the re-opening of much of NC's economy. And the following week will be the range after the protests.

Of course, the latter was the result of an emotional response to centuries of racism in America, while the former was a decision made by politicians.

[pacearrow02]

I absolutely think both.

Just based on what I've read, 14-21 days seems to be kind of the "magic range." This week will fall in that range after the re-opening of much of NC's economy. And the following week will be the range after the protests.

Of course, the latter was the result of an emotional response to centuries of racism in America, while the former was a decision made by politicians.

Sure, unfortunately the virus doesn’t give a hoot what the reason for gathering was.  Praying neither the reopening or the protests lead to substantially increased infection!!

[MU82]

Sure, unfortunately the virus doesn’t give a hoot what the reason for gathering was.  Praying neither the reopening or the protests lead to substantially increased infection!!

Yes, it would be excellent if things suddenly reverse course here, and both hospitalizations and deaths as a result of COVID-19 go down substantially.

And not just here, but everywhere.

[Mutaman]

https://www.mediaite.com/online/trump-sets-one-day-personal-record-with-a-staggering-200-twitter-posts-amid-economic-public-health-and-racial-justice-crises/

[forgetful]

At press conference today medical team from UPMC said the virus seems to be weakening and new infections do not seem to be near as potent as original rounds of infection.

For those that know more then I, did the SARS outbreak really just kind of disappear over time and could that possibly happen with this strain of coronavirus.  Works it way through a couple mutations and then just runs out of gas?

Pace, for SARS in a second round of infections a mutation in the spike protein emerged that decreased the viruses affinity for the ACE2 receptor, which is required for cellular entry. it is believed that mutation decreased infectivity, viral loads, and disease severity. Notably, the spike protein from SARS-COV-2 has a very high affinity for ACE2, which correlates with its disease severity.

As of now, as others have mentioned, there are no indications of any mutations that would decrease the severity of COVID. It is likely for other reasons like Gooo has mentioned, those reasons will go away over time, and the virus doesn't mutate fast enough to really have hope for a mutation emerging, especially with as widespread as the disease is.

[shoothoops]

Near 100% ICU capacity in Arizona for COVID-19.

https://twitter.com/MelissaBlasius/status/1269020760393146374?s=19

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Uh...maybe Trump should stop helping.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/06/05/trump-maine-puritan-throw-away-coronavirus-swabs/3153622001/

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Here is an opinion on why the virus is getting less deadly.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-good-news-11591399491

[mu03eng]

If I was running public policy, I would pivot and keep my powder dry for the fall. That doesn't mean throw the doors wide open but between the opening and the protests, if the virus is going to spread it will do so significantly, no putting that genie back in the bottle. Either we're going to overwhelm our healthcare system in a month or there is a seasonal/distancing component that will keep things manageable.

If seasonal you absolutely have to get the mind share that fall will be bad. If not seasonal, everyone will know very quickly that this craps real and will react accordingly.

Based on both evidentiary papers and anecdotal discussions, I don't think the virus is getting less deadly, we are figuring out how to manage it better. I firmly believe in the early days people died that wouldn't have died if they got sick now. So my policy would be to keep building capacity and treatment protocols and focus public policy on a fall wave.

[pbiflyer]

I never understood why a virus is seasonal. Is it just because people are indoors more in the colder months? Virus goes on vacation in the summer?

[mu03eng]

I never understood why a virus is seasonal. Is it just because people are indoors more in the colder months? Virus goes on vacation in the summer?

Couple of reasons:
-more time in the sun in the summer....our bodies fight disease better with sun exposure
-being outdoors for most viruses greatly reduces spread because viral load exposure is greatly reduced.
-Schools are out and a great deal of virus is spread amongst kids and brought home
-people take more vacations so less frequent contact in offices, etc.
-UV kills viruses on surfaces, so the surfaces we are touching outside are less transmissible than indoor surfaces in winter.

Viruses don't die in summer. You can still get the flu in the summer but the transmissionability goes down significantly in the summer

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Hey, Florida isn't the only place hiding COVID deaths:

Anger as Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro removes surging coronavirus death toll from official websites

Trump's best buddy in Brazil shutting down all COVID-19 statistics. It was just "a little flu".

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/07/bolsonaro-removes-surging-coronavirus-death-toll-official-websites/

Brazil's government was accused of trying to cover up the scale of its catastrophic coronavirus epidemic after it stopped publishing its total rates of deaths and infections.

The move came as president Jair Bolsonaro, who has previously dismissed the deadly virus as “a little flu,” claimed that the official count  was “not representative” of the country’s situation and threatened to pull Brazil out of the World Health Organisation. 

The last figures released before counting stopped showed Brazil had recorded over 34,000 deaths from Covid-19, the third highest in the world after the United States and the United Kingdom. It had 615,000 infections, the second-highest behind the United States

[tower912]

I have said all along that Brazil is a better comp than Sweden.   

[forgetful]

Our for-profit healthcare system at its finest. Charging $7k for a coronavirus test.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/08/coronavirus-test-costs-304058

[pacearrow02]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?__twitter_impression=true

So if you’re sick stay home or wear a mask when you’re out.  If you’re not sick forget the mask and go about your business?