Oso planning to go pro
Just catching up on this thread. I think its a little early to be calling the Apple Watch a bust. I don't own one, nor do I plan to, but I think it will become a decent niche product for them (in the same realm as the Apple TV). Look at adoption rates for the iPad and iPhone. Neither sold that many units in its first year, relative to their peak volume several years later. The Apple Watch will get there.
If you you all invested in STZ and MCD as I told you gamicks back in September, your best friend would be your Capital Gains Advisor.
What are your thoughts now, Doc?
Would have said MNST earlier this week. Two of top sellers out of 10 items for immediate consumption at Cstore and Gas. Took off big with a beat recently, but I think they are poised to break out over historical highs. Will Coke buy them with distribution agreements already in place?
Do you know what timing would be? My DirecTV 2 years are up on Aug. 31. I would love to at least be able to consider pulling the plug. If I could watch ESPN, Show, HBO and a few other networks, the only thing I'd be missing would be FS1 - and I guess that would give me an excuse to meet my fellow Marquetters at bars more, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Tim Cook talks about time for a MAJOR ACQUISITION. Hmm, sounds like something I said a few days ago. Netflix believed to be one of the targets. Apple has so much cash, they can do a lot of damage with their check book.
They have been terrible at acquisitions. They acquire lesser companies and waste them. What did they get with Beats? They acquire it and it disappeared. What brand equity are they getting from it?They should acquire Tesla and have Musk run Apple, Cook to resign. They should acquire Netflix and have Hastings run Apple, Cook to resign.This is exactly why they will not do it.Instead Cook showed his desperation by going on Jim Cramer's show Monday.
Why not just pivot to DIRECTV Now that is coming out in Q4? What you are asking for they will have, and in that same price range.
Not all of their acquisitions have been terrible. They have done some acquisitions around specific technologies that were integrated into their products which were highly succesful. Like certain touch screen technologies and the fingerprint reader. These make up the iPhone, its most successful product ever.Acquisitions are not always just about acquiring an entire new product or service. Sometimes it is a component that improves an existing product. Apple has been extremely successful at these types of acquisitions.
They have had close to 80 acquisitions, to suggest they are terrible is kind of funny.Again, I'm not a Cook fan, so I could give a rip if he is ousted or not. I just don't sour on the stock like you are and think with the cash they have they have tremendous upside if they wish to exercise it. As for Hastings, well he has done very well on the stock front, not so great on the profit front.
On page one I laundry listed the product released since iPhone5 was released (Sept 2012). It is a very long list. Again the stock is lower today than September 2012 so collectedly all the acquisitions and products that were spun out of them the market values at zero.Apple is a $500 billion market market capitalization stock. You realize it is worth more than every public company headquartered in the state of Wisconsin! (Wisconsin - $172 billion spread over 54 companies, led by Snap-on)Apple needs to think big, huge to move the needle. Try buying t-Mobile to start to start Apple wireless, Tesla to get into electric cars and Ford to manufacture them. Maybe not these exact targets but this big is how they need to think.All these ticky-tack acquisitions are collectively a rounding error to zero so far. And their current strategy will keep them this way.The criticism is Apple is afraid of a large acquisitions becasue they have to dominate everything they buy. They are afraid to buy something that might be considered their equal.
But you also realize in two weeks if the stock goes up $20, it isn't valued at zero. You're also not factoring in avoidance, that if those acquisitions weren't made, the stock could be much worse. Stock prices are a snapshot in time. You really think Apple buying Siri and putting that into their phones was a terrible investment? $200M for Siri where it has become a cultural play in this country. Come on.Their purchase of VocalIQ will take it a step further.Not all acquisitions work out, clearly. But to suggest they are terrible or added zero value is silly.
FWIW--Having done business in China my entire adult life I have seen the lows and highs of the Chinese economy over the past 30 years. Having seen good days and bad days I believe I have a very solid feel for the environment and I am VERY, VERY bearish on Chinese economy. Cannot predict when the floor falls out toa specific date but it is far closer than I would like to believe. When it happens I believe it send shocks waves around the world.
MU82Limited exposure to the market currently. I am an optimist by nature but very concerned about China and affect a crash could have on USA. Their stock market means nothing to me, I am concerned about the real estate and banking sectors.Knock on wood, a beat down China is good for my business. That said, I hope it does not get beat down too badly.
I have a pretty good chunk of my portfolio in the U.S. stock market, mostly in blue-chip, dividend-growing companies. Also have some bonds and cash for ballast.I mean, what's the alternative? I know of people who got all worried in 2012 and have been mostly in cash since then. They have missed out on a pretty nice bull market.Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I wish you good fortune. I wish me good fortune, too!
Cash is only one alternativeGold is another (up 20% this year)Bonds are a third option(they have handily outperformed stocks over the last many years)Annuities are a fourthActively managed balanced or flexible funds are another (let an expert do it) are a fifthand if not of that is appealing. Try my favorite ... a gold-plated gun. Both utility and investment at the same time!
There is a reason they are coming out with the Watch 2. There's also a reason that they still pull the best engineering talent, even from other very exciting companies. Apple has enough cash to innovate and fail and with that will also come great successes.And this is coming from a guy that works at an exciting public tech company, wouldn't buy an iPhone if you gave him $1000, and wishes that Apple would stop recruiting his best co-workers but not him
UBS puts buy target for DIS at $116