Should We Now Put Bucknell In The "Quality Win" Category?

[Tugg Speedman]

13 and 7 overall but 11 and 1 in their last 12.  Only loss over this stretch was @ Boston College by 4.

They could win out and be in position for a Tourney bid.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2083/bucknell-bison

[GGGG]

No.  Look at the teams they are beating?  All a bunch of crappy non-conference teams and Patriot League rivals.

[Henry Sugar]

They're not that far from being a Top 100 Pomeroy team.

[willie warrior]

Nope

[foreverwarriors]

Not a quality win, more of a "win where the closer than expected score can be explained..."

[Nukem2]

RPI for Bucknell is 80.  Not too shabby ( even though I don't believe in the RPI ).

[mosarsour]

It was a good win. It just doesn't qualify as a "quality win".

[bilsu]

Only if they qualify for automatic NCAA bid. When NCAA makes at large picks they look at how you fared against teams already in the tournament.

[mu_hilltopper]

I'll say yes.  Bucknell's expected RPI is 89.

Many people suggest if MU wins 11 in the Big East, we'll be in the NCAAs.

Those 5 of those precious wins will be against Rutgers (Expected RPI 135), USF (142), DePaul (229), Seton Hall (115), Prov (130).

[GGGG]

Just because they are "less sucky" than some of our BE opponents, I don't think that means "quality win."

[Jay Bee]

HUGE victory.  We were lucky Muscala got into foul trouble, the kid is a stud (and from Minnesota).

The win over Bucknell assures us a tourney bid.

[brewcity77]

Looking at their schedule on kenpom.com, the worst chance they have of winning in their remaining 10 games is 66% at Holy Cross, who they beat by 2 at home. If they can win out, granted it won't be against BCS conference competition, but they'd have a 17-game winning streak and 21 of 22. They're currently at 83 in the RPI, 108 in kenpom, but only have one quality win (@ Richmond).

I still think they have to win their conference tourney to get in, but if they made a run to the Patriot final and loss close, they'd have a slim chance of an at-large bid. The real drawback for them is two bad losses to St. Francis and Wagner. It'll depend on whether or not the committee tries to give the extra spots to mid-majors and how soft the bubble ends up. They certainly played both us and Villanova tough before folding at the end, but will the committee give any weight to those performances from early November?

Either way, while they have a good shot at getting in due to being the best team in their conference, I can't see anyone really giving much props to our resume because they were on it.

[jficke13]

I'll say yes.  Bucknell's expected RPI is 89.

Many people suggest if MU wins 11 in the Big East, we'll be in the NCAAs.

Those 5 of those precious wins will be against Rutgers (Expected RPI 135), USF (142), DePaul (229), Seton Hall (115), Prov (130).

I would be shocked if 11 BE wins didn't get us into the dance. I'm struggling to think of an analogy that would do justice to just how shocked I would be if we had 11 conference wins and didn't get a bid.

[Lennys Tap]

I would be shocked if 11 BE wins didn't get us into the dance. I'm struggling to think of an analogy that would do justice to just how shocked I would be if we had 11 conference wins and didn't get a bid.

I would also be shocked if 11 Ws didn't put us in the tournament. I'd rate it about as likely as blowing an 18 point lead in less than 6 minutes.

[Mr. Nielsen]

If a team is in the top 100, that's a good win. Things don't look good for you when you play so many schools over 200, like Florida does every year.

[Fullodds]

If a team is in the top 100, that's a good win. Things don't look good for you when you play so many schools over 200, like Florida does every year.

+1

Best non-con win (home or away)

[brewcity77]

+1

Best non-con win (home or away)

Which is exactly why I think we need 12 Big East wins to be considered a lock. Without a good non-conference win (and to date no quality road wins) I certainly think that 10 would put us likely on the outside looking in, much like Providence a couple years back. 11 would probably be enough, but it wouldn't be lock status, and would likely have us in that 8-11 seed range where we are thinking we'll be in, but relieved when we see our names pop up on Selection Sunday. 12 should get us a 5-7 seed and plenty of comfort.

[Fullodds]

We appear to pass the 'eye test' and look like a tourney team this year (for whatever that is worth) and the tourney will have 68 teams.  I think 11 wins and we are a lock.  10 wins and we are in if the 10 include a high quality road win or a good MSG win.

[Tugg Speedman]

Which is exactly why I think we need 12 Big East wins to be considered a lock. Without a good non-conference win (and to date no quality road wins) I certainly think that 10 would put us likely on the outside looking in, much like Providence a couple years back. 11 would probably be enough, but it wouldn't be lock status, and would likely have us in that 8-11 seed range where we are thinking we'll be in, but relieved when we see our names pop up on Selection Sunday. 12 should get us a 5-7 seed and plenty of comfort.

I do not believe an 11 BE win team has EVER been denied the tourney.  And if you look at the schedule, to get to 11, means at least two more "quality wins (to go with WVU and ND so far).

10 should be enough, 11 and we are in.

[79Warrior]

13 and 7 overall but 11 and 1 in their last 12.  Only loss over this stretch was @ Boston College by 4.

They could win out and be in position for a Tourney bid.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2083/bucknell-bison

Really reaching on that one.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I do not believe an 11 BE win team has EVER been denied the tourney.  And if you look at the schedule, to get to 11, means at least two more "quality wins (to go with WVU and ND so far).

10 should be enough, 11 and we are in.

11 has not, but 10-6 has...before they moved to an 18 game schedule.  10-6 is actually a better record than 11-7.

[Tugg Speedman]

Real Time RPI list Bucknell as a "Quality Win"

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_222_Men.html

ADD

They also have us winning 11 BE games ... Beating Uconn at Home, Cincy and St; Johns.  All three would be considered quality wins as all three have low RPIs.

[mu_hilltopper]

I was curious to see .. here are our wins, plus projected wins (adding to 11 BE wins) .. sorted by expected RPI.  Bucknell is projected to be our 6th best win of the year.


West Virginia    14.3
Connecticut    14.8
Notre Dame    26.8
St. John's    41.9
Cincinnati    49.8
Bucknell    90
Seton Hall    114.3
Seton Hall    114.3
Providence    132.5
Rutgers    137.9
South Florida    146.4
Wisconsin Green Bay    154.1
Wisconsin Milwaukee    161.5
DePaul    230.8
Mississippi Valley St.    248.3
Texas A&M Corpus Chris    285.5
South Dakota    307.5
Prairie View A&M    317
Longwood    322.3
Centenary    343.3

Here are the expected losses, sorted by RPI:

Duke    6
Pittsburgh    6.4
Syracuse    9.1
Georgetown    12.6
Villanova    13.9
Connecticut    14.8
Vanderbilt    14.9
Louisville    20.5
Notre Dame    26.8
Wisconsin    31.1
Gonzaga    53.9

[brewcity77]

I do not believe and 11 BE win team has EVER been denied the tourney.  And if you look at the schedule, to get to 11, means at least two more "quality wins (to go with WVU and ND so far).

10 should be enough, 11 and we are in.

No, in the past they haven't. But this would potentially be our resume...tell me if it looks like an automatic tourney team. For your additional "quality wins", I gave us UConn, St. John's, and Cincy, all at home. All RPI projections are from RPIForecast.com because I'm a cheap-ass:

20-12 (11-7)
RPI 49
SOS 34
Best wins: Connecticut (8), West Virginia (13), Notre Dame (21), St. John's (38), Cincinnati (46)
Best road win: Seton Hall (113)
Best non-conference win: Bucknell (89)
Worst loss: Gonzaga (50)

Record v Top 25: 3-10
Record v 26-50: 2-2
Record v 51-100: 1-0
Record v 101-200: 7-0
Record v 200+: 7-0

I think that would get us in. Probably as a 10-12 seed. That gives us 5 top 50 wins, 1 more in the top 100, and over 2/3 of our wins against teams with a 100+ RPI. No bad loss to hurt us, but are there enough big wins there to lock us into a place in the Big Dance? With absolutely no non-conference resume outside of Bucknell? Again, it's probably good enough, I'm just saying that it's not quite good enough to be a lock.

[kryza]

I'll say yes.  Bucknell's expected RPI is 89.

Many people suggest if MU wins 11 in the Big East, we'll be in the NCAAs.

Those 5 of those precious wins will be against Rutgers (Expected RPI 135), USF (142), DePaul (229), Seton Hall (115), Prov (130).

I don't get why people keep saying that we don't have to beat any more good teams to get to 11.

We are 4-2 right now. We need 7 more wins to get to 11. We should have a good shot of beating USF, Seton Hall x2, Providence, St Johns, and Cincy for 6 wins. Then we need to pick up one W from either ND, UConn x2, Cuse, Nova, or Gtown to get to 11-7.

Either way you cut it, if we are at 11-7, we will have beaten St Johns, Cincy, and a ranked Big East opponent.

That's lock city baby!

I think we can pick up 2 wins against the "ranks", so I say we're looking at going 12-6 this season.

[mu_hilltopper]

With that 11-7 record, with those wins, we are projected to have the 11th best RPI in the Big East.   Still think that's a lock?

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/BE.html

[willie warrior]

I don't get why people keep saying that we don't have to beat any more good teams to get to 11.

We are 4-2 right now. We need 7 more wins to get to 11. We should have a good shot of beating USF, Seton Hall x2, Providence, St Johns, and Cincy for 6 wins. Then we need to pick up one W from either ND, UConn x2, Cuse, Nova, or Gtown to get to 11-7.

Either way you cut it, if we are at 11-7, we will have beaten St Johns, Cincy, and a ranked Big East opponent.

That's lock city baby!

I think we can pick up 2 wins against the "ranks", so I say we're looking at going 12-6 this season.

I do not agree that 11-7 and beating St. John's, Cincy and a ranked BEast opponemt is a lock-it will be bubble-close!
We already have beaten a ranked team-ND. I do believe that if we beat St. John's (no small feat), ND(already have) and two from ND, Syracuse, UConn (2 games), Villanova, and Georgetown we will then be a lock, providing we do not have a bad home loss.

[brewcity77]

Either way you cut it, if we are at 11-7, we will have beaten St Johns, Cincy, and a ranked Big East opponent.

That's lock city baby!

I don't buy it, Dickie V. We do have to beat good teams. But as my post shows, no quality road wins and no quality non-conference wins. Is 5-12 against the top 50 good enough? Without proving it away from the BC or against non-BEast opponents? It probably it, but it's hardly "lock city".

We'd be an interesting case. Assuming my projections for us are correct, this is what I'm guessing:

BEast locks: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, Louisville, West Virginia, Connecticut

Bubble Teams

Marquette: 20-12 / 11-7 / RPI 49 / 5-12 v top 50 / 6-12 v top 100 / Non-con win over Bucknell (home)

Notre Dame: 21-10 / 10-8 / RPI 21 / 7-8 v top 50 / 11-9 v top 100 / Non-con wins over Wisconsin (neutral), Gonzaga (home)

Cincinnati: 24-9 / 10-8 / RPI 46 / 6-8 v top 50 / 9-9 v top 100 / Non-con win over Xavier (home)

Georgetown: 22-11 / 9-9 / RPI 10 / 7-10 v top 50 / 11-11 v top 100 / Non-con wins over Missouri (neutral), Utah State (home) / 2-0 v Marquette

St. John's: 18-14 / 9-9 / RPI 38 / 5-9 v top 50 / 7-11 v top 100 / Non-con win over Northwestern (home) / Road win over West Virginia

The numbers I use are using game predictions from kenpom.com and RPI predictions from RPIForecast.com (which has identical numbers for final conference and overall records). I am also assuming all the seeds prevail in the Big East tournament with two exceptions, MU/G'Town (because so many feel 11-7 makes us a lock) and ND/Cincy (toss of a coin for two bubble teams, went with Cincy). Here's what the BEast tourney results add to this:

Marquette loses to Georgetown
Notre Dame loses to Cincinnati
Cincinnati beats DePaul and Notre Dame, loses to Pittsburgh
Georgetown beats South Florida and Marquette, loses to Syracuse
St. John's beats Providence, loses to Connecticut

So I think looking at those numbers, I would move both Notre Dame and Georgetown to lock status. Notre Dame has a great record against the top 50 and top 100 as well as two good non-conference wins, one on a neutral court, and a stellar RPI of 21. Georgetown may only be 9-9 in the Big East, but their RPI is 10, while their top 50 and top 100 records is very respectable along with the non-con wins over Missouri and Utah State (both top 30 RPI).

That gives the Big East 8 teams that are in the tourney. Any more becomes an NCAA record. If they go to 9 teams, it's a dogfight between us and Cincy. They beat us in every major category except head-to-head and Big East record. Does our conference record trump their top 50 and top 100 records, along with them having 4 more wins overall? It's a toss-up. If they go to 10 teams, I'm guessing we would be a lock. St. John's, while boasting a good resume, is probably out based on conference record and simply not enough aggregate wins. They only get in if the committee takes 11.

But either way, I would hope that my past two posts have done a decent job of showing how 11-7 does not make us a lock. We are competing with the rest of the Big East for these bids. Notre Dame and Georgetown will almost certainly get in with top 25 RPI numbers, despite having lesser conference records. And Cincinnati will likely have a very good case for inclusion as well. It all comes down to Big East bids. Which is why we need 12 Big East wins to be a stone cold lock.

[MUfan12]

Why would West Va be a lock, again?

[Marquette84]

Why would West Va be a lock, again?

Seems easy enough to compare them using the same criteria:

Marquette: 20-12 / 11-7 / RPI 49 / 5-12 v top 50 / 6-12 v top 100 / Non-con win over Bucknell (home)

West Virginia: 20-10 / 11-7 / RPI 14 / 8-7 v top 50 / 11-10 v top 100 / Non-con wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue

An RPI of 14, better than .500 against the top 50, and two good non-conference wins seems to make them a lock.

[willie warrior]

All ofthis analysis is good stuff. It really proves one thing, having a very good RPI, say up to 25, is more important than beefing up your wins with 10 plus cupcakes every year.

[mu_hilltopper]

I wish there was a website that allowed you to change a team's schedule and see the RPI impact. 

I'd be curious to see the effects of:
* What if we played UWM at home, instead of getting the 1.6 road wins in their Cell?
* How about UWGB on the road instead with 1.6 wins?
* Replace Prairie View or South Dakota (RPI 300+) with some 150 teams.

[Marquette84]

All ofthis analysis is good stuff. It really proves one thing, having a very good RPI, say up to 25, is more important than beefing up your wins with 10 plus cupcakes every year.

Actually, you do need to beef your win total.  There's no real benefit to playing a tougher schedule unless you win a few of those games.

San Diego State is #3 in RPI right now.  We're #72.  Their toughest opponent was #32 UNLV.  We've already played an incredible 7 teams that are tougher than UNLV per the RPI. #7 Duke, #29 Wisconsin, #20 Vanderbilt, #13 WVU, #4 Pitt, #10 Notre Dame, #31 Louisville.

You would think our monster schedule would help us.  It doesn't.  Our SOS is ranked 63rd.  Theirs is ranked

And its not like SDS avoided cupcakes. Their non conference schedule included  UWGB, Cal Poly, San Diego Christian, Occidental, Utah, TCU, UCSB, IUPUI twice, Long Beach State, San Francisco.  Anyone not think we'd run the table on that group?

Even though we played what we thought is a tougher schedule, they have a stronger SOS. Thats because their cupcakes generally fall in the 100 to 200 range on the RPI, or they played D2 opponents which don't hurt your SOS. 

The objective is not to avoid cupcakes--its to pick the right ones. 

[SacWarrior]

So back on topic.

No.