I would be shocked if we got Vander Blue

[tower912]

If we get Blue, it will be the first time under Buzz that we signed a recruit that everybody new for months we were working on, one that we were in a clear competition to get.    Until now, every time Buzz signs a recruit, it comes out of left field and we go through a "who's he, how big, we beat who?!?!, damn, I didn't know we were even looking at this guy" progression.     Landing Blue would be the complete opposite of that.   So, my prediction is that Blue goes elsewhere and two days later we sign somebody at the same position ranked equally high that nobody knew we were close on.   

[ecompt]

I'd be shocked if Blue went anywhere but Badgerland.

[cheebs09]

While most have been out of the blue, both Maymon and Cadougan I believe were pretty well known that we were involved with before they committed.

[GOMU1104]

"Every time" is a bit of a stretch.

Cadougan, Maymon, and Jones were obvious targets.

There were rumblings about Buycks.

Everyone else though, seemingly out of nowhere.

[dennycrane]

Inside scuttlebut had him as a virtual lock for MU a couple of weeks ago. What happened?

[MR.HAYWARD]

i agree "not all the time"  Jumail Jones was Mu's top target for months and months

[Buzz4Prez]

I have a feeling MU is sitting alright with VB. I wouldn't be surprised either way.

[wadesworld]

Inside scuttlebut had him as a virtual lock for MU a couple of weeks ago. What happened

It did?  Never heard that.  I just heard people thinking that Maymon switching from number 22 to 25 and him being at the camp made him have a high interested in us.  From what I have heard, the big time favorite has been Wisconsin ever since he committed, minus about the 2 weeks following his decommitment.

[MUfan2]

I'll go on the record saying I believe Blue will commit to MU.  99% confidence.

[{Juggernaut}]

I will also go on the record saying that i am 99.9% confident that he will commit.  He was born to play wear the blue and gold

[wadesworld]

Do you have any inside information or just a feeling/hope?

[4everwarriors]

If we get Blue, it will be the first time under Buzz that we signed a recruit that everybody new for months we were working on, one that we were in a clear competition to get.    Until now, every time Buzz signs a recruit, it comes out of left field and we go through a "who's he, how big, we beat who?!?!, damn, I didn't know we were even looking at this guy" progression.     Landing Blue would be the complete opposite of that.   So, my prediction is that Blue goes elsewhere and two days later we sign somebody at the same position ranked equally high that nobody knew we were close on.   

I want to see both you and ecompt stick your thumbs in an electrical outlet. Vander will be the next legendary Warrior guard.

[Daniel]

Does anyone have stats on athletes who commited to a school, decommtted and then actually ended up at the same school (vesus going elsewhere)!

[MUfan12]

Do you have any inside information or just a feeling/hope?

No inside info, and to be honest I don't think anyone has any. After the debacle earlier this summer, Vander's doing the right thing by keeping things close to the vest. I've been impressed with the way he's handled things since Schultz's article came out.

I will say this, just reading between the recruiting lines, there's something there. I can't give 99% confidence, but I think MU is in very good shape.

[bma725]

Does anyone have stats on athletes who commited to a school, decommtted and then actually ended up at the same school (vesus going elsewhere)!

No real stats, but it seems to be fairly rare.  Take a look at the class of 2009 just for guys in the Top 100:

Xavier Henry - decommitted from Memphis, committed to Kansas
DeMarcus Cousins - decommitted from UAB, committed to Memphis, decommitted from Memphis, committed to Kentucky
Renardo Sidney - decommitted from USC, committed to Mississippi State
Abdul Gaddy - decommitted from Arizona, recommitted to Arizona, decommitted from Arizona again, committed to Washington
Tommy Mason-Griffin - decommitted from LSU, committed to Oklahoma State
Noel Johnson - decommitted from USC, committed to Clemson
Nolan Dennis - decommitted from Memphis, committed to Baylor
Terrell Vinson - decommitted from Loyola Marymount, committed to UMass
Soloman Hill - decommitted from USC, committed to Arizona
Mike Moser - decommitted from Arizona, committed to UCLA
Dashonte Riley - decommitted from Georgetown, committed to Syracuse
DeShawn Painter - decommitted from Florida, committed to NC State
Marshawn Powell - decommitted from Arkansas, recommitted to Arkansas
Derrick Williams - decommitted from USC, committed to Arizona
Demetrius Walker - decommitted from USC, committed to Arizona State
Kevin Parrom - decommitted from Xavier, committed to Arizona
Daniel Miller - decommitted from Georgia, committed to Georgia Tech

So in total, only two players recommitted to the school that they originally decommitted from, but one of those ended up decommitting again.  The important thing to remember though, is that most of these occurred for one of two reasons.  Either the coaches changed, so the player was no longer interested in the school or the "decommit" was code for the player getting their offer pulled.  When you look at it like that, only one of the situations was really like Blue's, and that was Marshawn Powell the one player that ended up recommitting to his school and staying there.

[nyg]

Does anyone have stats on athletes who commited to a school, decommtted and then actually ended up at the same school (vesus going elsewhere)!

There were 17 highly ranked recruits on BMA's list (BTW-nice analysis).  I don't care what the reasons were, its obvious that the odds are once they decommit, they don't look back.  I like the odds in MU favor right now.

[MarquetteDano]

BMA,

  Thanks for the breakdown.  I rely a lot on your analysis and it is much appreciated.  I do believe every situation is unique like you mentioned so it is hard to look at history and predict what will happen.

  There is some sick part of me that wants him just to go out of state... put the whole drama behind us.  I really wonder if he thinks the same despite wanting to be close to home?

[bma725]

There were 17 highly ranked recruits on BMA's list (BTW-nice analysis).  I don't care what the reasons were, its obvious that the odds are once they decommit, they don't look back.  I like the odds in MU favor right now.

You can't just throw out the reasons for the decommitment, it's the most important part of the analysis.  The reason the player decommitted is 99% of the time the reason they don't look back to begin with.

[Big Papi]

I wouldn't rule us out for Blue just because most of our commits come out of left field.  Each situation is different.  Vander is talked about a lot on this board because he is a local product.  Same with Tokoto.  When it comes to guessing on where will Blue commit, I am going with MU and here is why:

1.  Close with Maymon and family
2.  I believe he likes our style of play
3.  I believe when he commited to UW, he ruled out MU because of the coaching change and not knowing anything about Buzz and his style of play
4.  While I think a lot of posts on Badgernation are smear campaigns, there is usually some semblence of truth behind some of them.  Red and others have posted numerous times that Buzz and Maymon were in Blue's ear all the while he was commited to UW.  I think Blue being close to Maymon, he saw a lot of things up close that he liked about MU.
5.  I believe his de-commitment from UW has a direct relation with him liking what he saw about MU last year.
6.  I think Blue being blownup by the local media and UW followers had two affects on his mind.  The first is that he was angry at UW and wanted nothing to do with them.  The second was that he felt the big time pressure of local Madison loyalists turning the screws on him having to commit to UW while bashing the program he wants to go to, MU.  Great tactic by the rodents.  Show Blue how miserable he senior year can be if he commits to a rival.
7.  I believe that big time pressure forced Blue into distancing himself from MU, at least initially, as he knows life will not be easy in Madison if he commits to MU.
8.  I believe that is why he listed and is interested in some far far far away big programs.
9.  I believe he wants to play close to home for his family but he still feels the sting of what he went through.  
10.  I believe he will ultimately do what he wants to do which is to happily commit to MU where his family can still see him regularly.

None of this is inside information just my impressions on this whole situation.

[GGGG]

Jesus mufanatic...is your world filled with pink unicorns that crap $100 bills too?

I'm all for being an optimist, but you have taken gigantic leaps of logic in MU's favor every time you could.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Jesus mufanatic...is your world filled with pink unicorns that crap $100 bills too?

I'm all for being an optimist, but you have taken gigantic leaps of logic in MU's favor every time you could.

 

[Silky]

It's Marquette for Blue.

[Daniel]

If we had a kid named Gold playing for us, Blue would be a natural addition

None of us know anything (as least I don't) so let's hope he chooses MU, soon!  Come on Blue!

[Big Papi]

Jesus mufanatic...is your world filled with pink unicorns that crap $100 bills too?

I'm all for being an optimist, but you have taken gigantic leaps of logic in MU's favor every time you could.

Oh if only it was that great but why shouldn't I be so optimistic?  All I read from posters about Blue's situation is pessimism.  He did open up his recruitment for a reason did he not????  Now Blue could very well succumb to external pressure and re-commit to Madison but it is pretty obvious from his actions over the last few months that he is at least somewhat interested in coming to MU.

[Daniel]

No real stats, but it seems to be fairly rare.  Take a look at the class of 2009 just for guys in the Top 100:

Xavier Henry - decommitted from Memphis, committed to Kansas
DeMarcus Cousins - decommitted from UAB, committed to Memphis, decommitted from Memphis, committed to Kentucky
Renardo Sidney - decommitted from USC, committed to Mississippi State
Abdul Gaddy - decommitted from Arizona, recommitted to Arizona, decommitted from Arizona again, committed to Washington
Tommy Mason-Griffin - decommitted from LSU, committed to Oklahoma State
Noel Johnson - decommitted from USC, committed to Clemson
Nolan Dennis - decommitted from Memphis, committed to Baylor
Terrell Vinson - decommitted from Loyola Marymount, committed to UMass
Soloman Hill - decommitted from USC, committed to Arizona
Mike Moser - decommitted from Arizona, committed to UCLA
Dashonte Riley - decommitted from Georgetown, committed to Syracuse
DeShawn Painter - decommitted from Florida, committed to NC State
Marshawn Powell - decommitted from Arkansas, recommitted to Arkansas
Derrick Williams - decommitted from USC, committed to Arizona
Demetrius Walker - decommitted from USC, committed to Arizona State
Kevin Parrom - decommitted from Xavier, committed to Arizona
Daniel Miller - decommitted from Georgia, committed to Georgia Tech

So in total, only two players recommitted to the school that they originally decommitted from, but one of those ended up decommitting again.  The important thing to remember though, is that most of these occurred for one of two reasons.  Either the coaches changed, so the player was no longer interested in the school or the "decommit" was code for the player getting their offer pulled.  When you look at it like that, only one of the situations was really like Blue's, and that was Marshawn Powell the one player that ended up recommitting to his school and staying there.

Thanks BMA - great stuff.  It just goes to show that we cannot guess what Blue will do.  But hoping that he is one who decommits permanently and then commits pernaenetly with MU!  Can you imagine the t-shirts/sayings we could come up with with Blue on the team?!  Would be so fun, and a great fit for him and MU.