The End Is In Sight

[Tugg Speedman]

Electric cars
The death of the internal combustion engine
It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed the world

https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21726071-it-had-good-run-end-sight-machine-changed-world-death

[GGGG]

I mean, sure, eventually the Earth is going to be swallowed up by Sol and we are all gonna die.  The internal combustion engine will die along with us by that point.

[tower912]

Electric isn't going to take over until you can drive from Chicago to Denver, recharging as quickly as refueling.  That day WILL come.  Until then, they are second cars, with the other being the vacation car.

[JWags85]

Electric isn't going to take over until you can drive from Chicago to Denver, recharging as quickly as refueling.  That day WILL come.  Until then, they are second cars, with the other being the vacation car.

If you're talking becoming the primary engine type in the market, then sure.  But I'd wager LOTS of people have never driven Chicago to Denver, or Chicago to Florida (both about 1000 mile trips).

The longest drive Ive taken since college was Chicago to Columbus or Cleveland, which are on the edges of that 300-325 range that TSLA has now.  And I don't really plan on making that often if at all anymore.  I think electric cars can very much be a primary vehicle for consumers who don't want to pile a family into the station wagon for a road trip.  And I think thats becoming a larger and larger segment. 

[real chili 83]

...need more cylinders

[MomofMUltiples]

Induction charging will be the key.  Full charge on a 100 kWh car battery in 3-5 minutes.  Problem is infrastructure - a chicken and egg issue.  There needs to be enough people buying the cars to justify the investment in the charging infrastructure.  Countries like Germany and Sweden already have some induction-charged buses with charging platforms built in at significant stops along the routes.  Could come sooner than you think.

[uncle zeffy]

better yet there needs to be a standard battery for all electric vehicles. So if you're going on a long Chicago-Denver commute you can just swap out a battery when you get to a charge station, kind of like a propane tank...

[GooooMarquette]

Should this be renamed the armageddon thread?

[tower912]

Sitting in Wayne's tires in Elizabethtown, Kentucky with a flat in my wife's Outback.  Already driven nearly 1000 miles on this family vacation.  Michigan to Gatlinburg, returning via Mammoth Caves.  My 10 year old, obsessed with cars, has been calling out every interesting car for the 30 hours I have spent in the car over the last week.  3 Tesla's.  All near cities.  None on the highways in the wide open spaces between the metropolitan areas.   

Some day.  A lot of infrastructure to go.

[Jockey]

Electric isn't going to take over until you can drive from Chicago to Denver, recharging as quickly as refueling.  That day WILL come.  Until then, they are second cars, with the other being the vacation car.

But..... Heisy read an article so it has to be true.

[JWags85]

Sitting in Wayne's tires in Elizabethtown, Kentucky with a flat in my wife's Outback.  Already driven nearly 1000 miles on this family vacation.  Michigan to Gatlinburg, returning via Mammoth Caves.  My 10 year old, obsessed with cars, has been calling out every interesting car for the 30 hours I have spent in the car over the last week.  3 Tesla's.  All near cities.  None on the highways in the wide open spaces between the metropolitan areas.   

Some day.  A lot of infrastructure to go.

To be fair, once you get into "open spaces" away from cities, how many $80-$100K cars do you see?

[tower912]

I actually was keeping track between Elizabethtown and Fort Wayne.   When I had time. 6 Porsches,  11 corvettes, 1 Ferrari, 15 Mercedes, 1 Tesla.

[jsglow]

To be fair, once you get into "open spaces" away from cities, how many $80-$100K cars do you see?

And to be fair, there really isn't too much 'open space' east of the Mississippi.  Try the run on 70 & 15 between Denver and Las Vegas sometime boys.  Both gorgeous and truly empty.  There are only 2 real metropolitan areas on that leg, Grand Junction (pop. 62,000) and St. George (pop. 82,000) covering fully 800 road miles.  Mostly what you see out there are solidly built American pick-ups.  Now of course there are 2-3 other very small towns,  some gas stations and a few motels.  But there's still hundreds of miles where you wouldn't want to be with a 1/4 tank of gas.  And often long stretches with no motor vehicles for several minutes at a time.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Sitting in Wayne's tires in Elizabethtown, Kentucky with a flat in my wife's Outback.  Already driven nearly 1000 miles on this family vacation.  Michigan to Gatlinburg, returning via Mammoth Caves.  My 10 year old, obsessed with cars, has been calling out every interesting car for the 30 hours I have spent in the car over the last week.  3 Tesla's.  All near cities.  None on the highways in the wide open spaces between the metropolitan areas.   

Some day.  A lot of infrastructure to go.

I just finished my 2,500 mile family vacation drive.  We've had interesting road trips in the past that included a new alternator (amazingly did not disrupt the trip) and a separate incident that required a new battery.

[Tugg Speedman]

Electric isn't going to take over until you can drive from Chicago to Denver, recharging as quickly as refueling.  That day WILL come.  Until then, they are second cars, with the other being the vacation car.

Tesla already has 922 charging stations with over 6,200 rapid chargers across the country.  Average re-charging time is 30 minutes.
And hundreds of them are "destinations" like casinos, large restaurants and/or hotels.

https://www.tesla.com/findus#/bounds/49.38,-66.94,25.82,-124.39?search=supercharger&name=us

Already done!

So you drive 5 hours (300 miles) and take 30 minutes to re-charge.  You spend that time grabbing a bite, stretching your legs and hitting the can.

So you can drive an electric car across the country in about the same time as a gasoline powered car.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Tesla already has 922 charging stations with over 6,200 rapid chargers across the country.  Average re-charging time is 30 minutes.
And hundreds of them are "destinations" like casinos, large restaurants and/or hotels.

https://www.tesla.com/findus#/bounds/49.38,-66.94,25.82,-124.39?search=supercharger&name=us

Already done!

So you drive 5 hours (300 miles) and take 30 minutes to re-charge.  You spend that time grabbing a bite, stretching your legs and hitting the can.

So you can drive an electric car across the country in about the same time as a gasoline powered car.

I'm going to guess there are large chunks of the country that aren't covered by those Tesla recharging stations. And honest question,  can non Teslas charge at Tesla recharging stations?

I agree that electric cars are the way of the future. But I don't think we can say the support infrastructure is already in place

[reinko]

I'm going to guess there are large chunks of the country that aren't covered by those Tesla recharging stations. And honest question,  can non Teslas charge at Tesla recharging stations?

I agree that electric cars are the way of the future. But I don't think we can say the support infrastructure is already in place

Me and Heise are weirdly aligned here...you are right, the infrastructure is not there yet, but they invested in areas where more Tesla drivers (affluent) drivers are, but also on roads frequently traveled. 

https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

My sense is they are not (nor should they) cater to the people, who are thinking they drive once per year more than 300+ miles...that ain't their market.  I live in I-95 corridor in New England with family Boston, NY, and DC...I am probably there target customer...while I am not in the market yet for one, but by 2020, it will be the first company I look at. (the affordable one, no big ballin' here)

Many consumers are weird in my opinion (and I have fallen into this trap myself), they look at 3% of instances where something WON'T work, but ignore the 97% of the time it makes perfect senses.

[tower912]

I believe that the day of the electrics being the primary vehicle over internal combustion engines will come.    I just don't think it is imminent.   I'm 51.    Assuming normal lifespan, IMO it is a coin flip whether or not it happens in my lifetime in America.      My children, assuming normal lifespan, absolutely.   In Europe, in my lifetime.   And even then, I think there will still be internal combustion vehicles on the road.   Particularly in America, with the vast areas of undeveloped and undevelopable land.

[Tugg Speedman]

I believe that the day of the electrics being the primary vehicle over internal combustion engines will come.    I just don't think it is imminent.   I'm 51.    Assuming normal lifespan, IMO it is a coin flip whether or not it happens in my lifetime in America.      My children, assuming normal lifespan, absolutely.   In Europe, in my lifetime.   And even then, I think there will still be internal combustion vehicles on the road.   Particularly in America, with the vast areas of undeveloped and undevelopable land.

France and the UK passed laws to ban all internal combustion engines by 2040.  So they will all be gone in 23 years at the latest.

(yes, that is Europe but the automakers are not going to continue to make gas engines ... too expensive to have two plants.)

Many consumers are weird in my opinion (and I have fallen into this trap myself), they look at 3% of instances where something WON'T work, but ignore the 97% of the time it makes perfect senses.

Exactly right.  Whenever a new technology comes up.  people have this weird way to running through scenarios in their mind to come up with some narrowly defined example where it will not work.

You are correct, and Telsa will agree, electric cars will with a range of 300 miles meet over 95% of all driving needs.  The majority of Americans can go their entire life and not have this be a problem.

For the >5%.... enterprise at $25/day!***

Problem solved.

*** BMW makes the I8 electric sports car.  When you buy one, you can drop off your car at the dealer and they will give you a loaner X5, unlimited times (remember you have to leave your I8 with the dealer).  This is going to become the new business model, free use of a gasoline SUV when you drop off your electric car.

[brewcity77]

Exactly right.  Whenever a new technology comes up.  people have this weird way to running through scenarios in their mind to come up with some narrowly defined example where it will not work.

LOL

This is my dad to a tee. He won't own a cell phone that isn't pay-by-the-minute because he's terrified of being tied down to it and any time he needs a phone he specifically requests that any texting features are disabled. Further, he refuses to let any pictures of him be on Facebook because he doesn't want a digital footprint. To be fair, I think that's a large portion of the older population, but it baffles me when he even refuses things that will make his life immeasurably easier.

[Herman Cain]

Electric cars
The death of the internal combustion engine
It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed the world

https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21726071-it-had-good-run-end-sight-machine-changed-world-death

All stories in media are planted by PR people with agendas. So one can hardly take this as the gospel. Also I have learned over many years that when ever I see a popular magazine headline with a headline like this it is a good time to take the opposite trade .

I spent a fair amount of time in both the battery business and the automotive business and dont buy into the premise of this article .  Technological change in the battery industry has been sought after for many years and it is very illusive.

That said we are looking into electric alternatives at all times for our corporate fleets . Don't ever want to be beta versus VHS

[GGGG]

LOL

This is my dad to a tee. He won't own a cell phone that isn't pay-by-the-minute because he's terrified of being tied down to it and any time he needs a phone he specifically requests that any texting features are disabled. Further, he refuses to let any pictures of him be on Facebook because he doesn't want a digital footprint. To be fair, I think that's a large portion of the older population, but it baffles me when he even refuses things that will make his life immeasurably easier.

My mom got all flipped out over an "alarming" news story about how if you enable location services on an iPhone, that Apple can track where you are.  She sent my brother and I emails about how to disable these services.  I had to respond that...

1. I like location services because otherwise I can't use the phone as a GPS.
2. I don't care if Apple knows where I have been.  Apple doesn't care all that much anyway.
3. Simply carrying a cell phone tells people where you have been when it pings the local cell towers.

Sometimes the fear of technology is very odd.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I believe that the day of the electrics being the primary vehicle over internal combustion engines will come.    I just don't think it is imminent.   I'm 51.    Assuming normal lifespan, IMO it is a coin flip whether or not it happens in my lifetime in America.      My children, assuming normal lifespan, absolutely.   In Europe, in my lifetime.   And even then, I think there will still be internal combustion vehicles on the road.   Particularly in America, with the vast areas of undeveloped and undevelopable land.

Live long enough and you might see the self driving solar & wind hybrid car.  Or whatever other future technology takes over.  Electric cars aren't the end game.

[Badgerhater]

To be fair, once you get into "open spaces" away from cities, how many $80-$100K cars do you see?

That is because out that way they drive trucks.  Check out the sticker prices on full-sized pickups sometime.

I do live out in the country and there are a good number of Chevy Volts out here.

[jesmu84]

My mom got all flipped out over an "alarming" news story about how if you enable location services on an iPhone, that Apple can track where you are.  She sent my brother and I emails about how to disable these services.  I had to respond that...

1. I like location services because otherwise I can't use the phone as a GPS.
2. I don't care if Apple knows where I have been.  Apple doesn't care all that much anyway.
3. Simply carrying a cell phone tells people where you have been when it pings the local cell towers.

Sometimes the fear of technology is very odd.

The same generation who would expect their kids to look stuff up in physical encyclopedias and would look down on getting information from wikipedia/internet, now gets their news/facts from Facebook shares.