MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: LoudMouth on March 19, 2019, 09:55:20 AM

Title: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: LoudMouth on March 19, 2019, 09:55:20 AM
The only person to pick MU over Murray State isn't a person at all

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2019-bracket-picks-and-predictions-from-advanced-computer-model/
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on March 19, 2019, 10:14:26 AM
Not sure how the model does with other sports

But it’s been very helpful with golf
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Mike Deane's Seat Belt on March 19, 2019, 10:23:12 AM
I have not followed the bracketology but are the pundits all taking the upset for this one!???

As negative of a fan / sky is falling / irrational as I am.  I am very confident with murray.  Lock down one star and we have all the tools to blow by them with a decent day from the field.  They play little sisters of the poor the majority of the season.    We should be good pending a total offensive collapse.   

FsU is another story i fear
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: wadesworld on March 19, 2019, 10:29:28 AM
Throw the computer models and predictions out.  It's March baby.  Survive and advance, lose and go home.  40 minutes of ball played on a court between two teams is all that matters.  Win those 40 minutes 6 times and you cut some nets.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: MUMonster03 on March 19, 2019, 10:38:28 AM
FsU is another story i fear

I've found FSU to be an anomaly all year. They beat Purdue, althought they struggled early on, and got a pretty easy ACC schedule with their home and homes being Miami, Clemson, GT, and  Wake. They lost to Villanova, Pitt and BC (ouch), and went 1-4 against the 3 teams ahead of them in the ACC.

It is a lot like the old Big East imbalanced schedule. We had a lot of teams make runs, but often had a lot flame out early. If we look good agains Murray St and just don't squeak by, i like our chances.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: MU Fan in Connecticut on March 19, 2019, 10:51:17 AM
I've found FSU to be an anomaly all year. They beat Purdue, althought they struggled early on, and got a pretty easy ACC schedule with their home and homes being Miami, Clemson, GT, and  Wake. They lost to Villanova, Pitt and BC (ouch), and went 1-4 against the 3 teams ahead of them in the ACC.

It is a lot like the old Big East imbalanced schedule. We had a lot of teams make runs, but often had a lot flame out early. If we look good agains Murray St and just don't squeak by, i like our chances.

And Leonard Hamilton always bombs in March, so we got that going.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: BM1090 on March 19, 2019, 10:53:12 AM
And Leonard Hamilton always bombs in March, so we got that going.

Except last year.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: wadesworld on March 19, 2019, 11:05:05 AM
And Leonard Hamilton always bombs in March, so we got that going.

Except last year.

Yup, when he went to an Elite Eight.  And returned almost everyone.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on March 19, 2019, 11:24:16 AM
Yup, when he went to an Elite Eight.  And returned almost everyone.

Now he’s due to flame out again
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: muguru on March 19, 2019, 11:28:53 AM
Absolutely do NOT discount Vermont pulling the upset here. They have experience, are playing closer to home than FSU and Anthony Lamb is a total stud..one of the best players the country doesn't know about.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 19, 2019, 11:32:08 AM
Absolutely do NOT discount Vermont pulling the upset here. They have experience, are playing closer to home than FSU and Anthony Lamb is a total stud..one of the best players the country doesn't know about.

I've been thinking the same thing. Everyone in that building will be cheering for Vermont. Could pull the upset
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: vogue65 on March 19, 2019, 12:38:32 PM
Throw the computer models and predictions out.  It's March baby.  Survive and advance, lose and go home.  40 minutes of ball played on a court between two teams is all that matters.  Win those 40 minutes 6 times and you cut some nets.

Interesting how the number crunchers spend all year with their models of what will happen and then reality shows up.
I totally ignore the prognosticators all year,  game on.
Vegas loves people who show up with lots of money and an algorithm. 
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Cheeks on March 19, 2019, 12:48:26 PM
The predictor

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/game-predictor/

Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: vogue65 on March 19, 2019, 12:54:59 PM
The predictor

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/game-predictor/

Thank you, my mind just exploded.  Do you have a model for the 737 MAX 8/9? 
We had a lot of models that predicted victory in Vietnam also.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Benny B on March 19, 2019, 01:05:24 PM
I've been thinking the same thing. Everyone in that building will be cheering for Vermont. Could pull the upset

You damn skippy.

(https://i.pinimg.com/236x/e5/29/61/e52961199942922944cf900c14a95465--admiral-ackbar-star-tours.jpg)
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on March 19, 2019, 01:20:29 PM
I also think Vermont has a chance against FSU.   They are small, perimeter oriented, and shoot a lot of 3's.  Get hot and the crowd will get behind them.

I kinda feel like this pod is rock, paper, scissors.

FSU= rock
Marquette= scissors
Vermont= paper

Murray St is just an X-factor.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Cheeks on March 19, 2019, 01:23:04 PM
Thank you, my mind just exploded.  Do you have a model for the 737 MAX 8/9? 
We had a lot of models that predicted victory in Vietnam also.

Rules of engagement...McNamara blew that one.  A total crapshoot because we crapped the bed.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 19, 2019, 01:59:49 PM
Absolutely do NOT discount Vermont pulling the upset here. They have experience, are playing closer to home than FSU and Anthony Lamb is a total stud..one of the best players the country doesn't know about.

Eye test test?
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: avid1010 on March 19, 2019, 03:35:54 PM
The only person to pick MU over Murray State isn't a person at all

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2019-bracket-picks-and-predictions-from-advanced-computer-model/
always trust the computer...the spread is -4.5...puts MU at about a 66% chance of winning. 
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: warriorchick on March 19, 2019, 03:42:19 PM
I am having trouble finding it, but does anyone remember a few years ago CBS had a March Madness promo where an old-school computer spit out a piece of paper that had the word "Marquette" printed on it?
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Johnny B on March 19, 2019, 03:44:59 PM
I cant believe how people are picking so overwhelmingly in favor of Murray St. Has there ever been a 12-5 match up in which the 12 was overwhelmingly seen as the sure fire winner. lol whatever I kind of like being the underdogs from most peoples stand point.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: WarriorDad on March 19, 2019, 10:34:43 PM
Belmont looked good tonight and Murray State is in their conference. 
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: skianth16 on March 19, 2019, 10:54:24 PM
The surprising thing mentioned in the article is that we've been scoring a higher rate than usual in recent games, but it fails to mention who we've played. In our last 3 games, we played Georgetown and SJU, who both score and allow some of the higher totals in our league, and then against those jersey punks, we took 41 FTs, which definitely inflated the scoring.

I don't disagree with the outcome. I just feel like there's an obvious flaw to the logic saying we found our offensive groove lately.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: JakeBarnes on March 19, 2019, 11:00:46 PM
Belmont looked good tonight and Murray State is in their conference.

Temple is from the AAC and that conference has looked pretty terrible, which is the flip side to that equation.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: vogue65 on March 20, 2019, 03:32:04 AM
Rules of engagement...McNamara blew that one.  A total crapshoot because we crapped the bed.

We used mathematical models.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Class71 on March 20, 2019, 04:26:28 AM
The computer does the calculations of a mathematical model developed by a human and programmed by a human based on actual historic data/facts. AI is a learning model currently written by humans.

Starting in 2017 some simple programs were written by computers and Microsoft and others are working on the concept. Humans are still the masterminds at this point. So blame the humans who wrote the model if the program gives poor results.

In the future you can blame the computer. In the future the original program written by humans will evolve as decided by the original human designed  model. That is when the computers replace us and we all retire.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 20, 2019, 04:53:45 AM
The computer does the calculations of a mathematical model developed by a human and programmed by a human based on actual historic data/facts. AI is a learning model currently written by humans.

Starting in 2017 some simple programs were written by computers and Microsoft and others are working on the concept. Humans are still the masterminds at this point. So blame the humans who wrote the model if the program gives poor results.

In the future you can blame the computer. In the future the original program written by humans will evolve as decided by the original human designed  model. That is when the computers replace us and we all retire.

If you structure it as a neural rework then the more times the query is run the computer should learn and thus after a bunch of simulations become "the master".
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: MakeItRain11 on March 20, 2019, 06:42:08 AM
I cant believe how people are picking so overwhelmingly in favor of Murray St. Has there ever been a 12-5 match up in which the 12 was overwhelmingly seen as the sure fire winner. lol whatever I kind of like being the underdogs from most peoples stand point.

Minnesota vs. Middle Tennessee State from a few years ago comes to mind
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: brewcity77 on March 20, 2019, 06:43:02 AM
I also think Vermont has a chance against FSU.   They are small, perimeter oriented, and shoot a lot of 3's.  Get hot and the crowd will get behind them.

I kinda feel like this pod is rock, paper, scissors.

FSU= rock
Marquette= scissors
Vermont= paper

Murray St is just an X-factor.

I assume that makes Murray State bomb, and as everyone knows, while bomb beats rock & paper, scissors cuts the wick. We got this.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Spaniel with a Short Tail on March 20, 2019, 07:26:07 AM
I assume that makes Murray State bomb, and as everyone knows, while bomb beats rock & paper, scissors cuts the wick. We got this.

(https://i.imgflip.com/1eqdbk.jpg)
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: fjm on March 20, 2019, 07:31:00 AM
I am having trouble finding it, but does anyone remember a few years ago CBS had a March Madness promo where an old-school computer spit out a piece of paper that had the word "Marquette" printed on it?

Here ya go chick:

https://youtu.be/znsbKpUrsXo
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: warriorchick on March 20, 2019, 08:06:01 AM
Here ya go chick:

https://youtu.be/znsbKpUrsXo

Ha! RoboBilas! I forgot it had us beating Gonzaga!  Who can make a gif of that for us?

Thanks, fjm!
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Bocephys on March 20, 2019, 08:41:11 AM
Ha! RoboBilas! I forgot it had us beating Gonzaga!  Who can make a gif of that for us?

Thanks, fjm!

Let's hope we can make great use of this in 2019
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: Cheeks on March 20, 2019, 08:49:41 AM
We used mathematical models.

And then ignored them in practice. ROE
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: vogue65 on March 20, 2019, 09:40:29 AM
And then ignored them in practice. ROE
Oh the propaganda we are all subjected to.
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 20, 2019, 05:27:30 PM
Ha! RoboBilas! I forgot it had us beating Gonzaga!  Who can make a gif of that for us?

Thanks, fjm!

I think this'll work...

Edit: or this
(https://media.giphy.com/media/NUesTP0GgdBPSB4pHK/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Trust the Computers! At least this one
Post by: warriorchick on March 20, 2019, 06:06:25 PM
I think this'll work...

Edit: or this
(https://media.giphy.com/media/NUesTP0GgdBPSB4pHK/giphy.gif)

Thanks!