KenPom Now Has MU As The #1 Offense In The Nation

[Uncle Rico]

Please explain

https://www.rockmnation.com/platform/amp/2021/1/4/22211605/advanced-analytics-understanding-efficiency-margin-adjusted

[Class71]

It will be a big mistake if anyone goes Pro at the end of the season. Take the extra year and continue to learn. How many MU players have gone early in recent years and been successful? The track record has not been good. Scouts don't care. They can take a chance since they have a pool of alternative players in line for just a few positions. individual players only have one shot. They should put themselves in the best position possible before pulling the trigger.

[Not A Serious Person]

https://www.rockmnation.com/platform/amp/2021/1/4/22211605/advanced-analytics-understanding-efficiency-margin-adjusted

You are correct, sir.

What I wrote is accurate.

I believe the stat for Offense and Defense is points per 100 possessions.

So MU scores 120.5 points per 100 possessions
MU allows 97.8 points per 100 possessions

The spread between the two, 22.7 points, is the 8th best in the nation, hence the 8th Kenpom ranking.

MU lost the #1 offense rating because MU scored 60 points on 66 possessions for an offensive rating of 90.9 (60/66). This was below MU's 122-ish rating before the game, so they dropped.  Also, this is the second game where MU scored less than 70 points. The Mississippi State loss in November, MU scored 58, was the only game with a lower score.

MU allowed 52 points on 66 possessions for a defensive rate of 78.8 (52/66), much better than the 99-ish MU was before the game. So their defensive rating improved.

Today was a low-scoring game, which hurts the offensive rating and helps the defensive ratings, Winning or losing does not figure into the offensive and defensive ratings.

Now drop 85 to 90 against Uconn, and they can retake #1 in the offense category.

What I left out is the definition of possession.

Possessions = Field Goal Attempts - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (0.44 x Free throw attempts)

[Not A Serious Person]

Some more KenPom stats that are very encouraging for MU

Offense

MU's offense averaged 15.6 seconds a possession, the 14th fast in the country.
They are getting the ball up the court and scoring quickly.  Their 2pt field goal percentage is 60.4%, the best in the country.

Sum these up, and they are lethal in scoring 2-point point baskets. Arguably no one is better, not even Purdue with Edey.

On the downside, their FT% is 71%, ranked 201. Consequently, MU scores only 14.5 points from the FT line, ranking them 337 of 363 D1 teams.
This is not good! It has to get better ... period.

3PT% is 35.4%, ranked 102. Acceptable ... barely.

Defensive

On the defensive, the average opponent's possession is 18.7 seconds, ranked 358 of 363 teams. Outstanding! They make them work to put up a shot.

They steal the ball on 13.3% of possessions, ranked 12th. Again great!

On the downside ... rebounding. They allow 30.8 rebounds per game, ranked 272. This has to get better, but can it? MU is what it is, which also means it is not a good rebounding team.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Please explain

What you calculated is Marquettes unadjusted offensive efficiency.  Kenpom uses adjusted offensive efficiency, meaning it adjusts for the quality of defense your offense is facing. You have to use adjusted because otherwise the numbers you calculated would be equal  whether you were playing Tennessee (#1 defense) or Houston Christian (#363 defense)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You are correct, sir.

What I wrote is accurate.


What I left out is the definition of possession.

Possessions = Field Goal Attempts - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (0.44 x Free throw attempts)

What you wrote wasn't accurate and that's not what you left out

[Uncle Rico]

That's not what you left out

Either way, the offense is quite good.  Top-20 is awesome!  Top-5 is awesomer!

[PointWarrior]

It’s more than that

Like the part where Kenpom rates this years team based on last years results.

[Uncle Rico]

Like the part where Kenpom rates this years team based on last years results.

You’ve established you don’t understand advanced metrics even though the current head coach and staff uses them regularly.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Some more KenPom stats that are very encouraging for MU

Offense

MU's offense averaged 15.6 seconds a possession, the 14th fast in the country.
They are getting the ball up the court and scoring quickly.  Their 2pt field goal percentage is 60.4%, the best in the country.

Sum these up, and they are lethal in scoring 2-point point baskets. Arguably no one is better, not even Purdue with Edey.

On the downside, their FT% is 71%, ranked 201. Consequently, MU scores only 14.5 points from the FT line, ranking them 337 of 363 D1 teams.
This is not good! It has to get better ... period.

3PT% is 35.4%, ranked 102. Acceptable ... barely.

Defensive

On the defensive, the average opponent's possession is 18.7 seconds, ranked 358 of 363 teams. Outstanding! They make them work to put up a shot.

They steal the ball on 13.3% of possessions, ranked 12th. Again great!

On the downside ... rebounding. They allow 30.8 rebounds per game, ranked 272. This has to get better, but can it? MU is what it is, which also means it is not a good rebounding team.

These stats more describe style than why they are good.  It doesn't matter if opponents shoot early in the shot clock or late, it just matters if they make it and if you secure the rebound if they miss. The stats can be misleading too. For example, one of the reasons are opponents are so slow on offense is because of how many offensive Rebounds we give up. We give up more 30+ second possessions than most

[Not A Serious Person]

What you calculated is Marquettes unadjusted offensive efficiency.  Kenpom uses adjusted offensive efficiency, meaning it adjusts for the quality of defense your offense is facing. You have to use adjusted because otherwise the numbers you calculated would be equal  whether you were playing Tennessee (#1 defense) or Houston Christian (#363 defense)

Correct. I left that adjustment out as I tried not to overcomplicate the explanation.  Maybe I should have included it.

[Not A Serious Person]

These stats more describe style than why they are good.  It doesn't matter if opponents shoot early in the shot clock or late, it just matters if they make it and if you secure the rebound if they miss. The stats can be misleading too. For example, one of the reasons are opponents are so slow on offense is because of how many offensive Rebounds we give up. We give up more 30+ second possessions than most

How do offensive rebounds slow the team's scoring time? The clock resets to 20 seconds on an offensive rebound, not 30 seconds.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

How do offensive rebounds slow the team's scoring time? The clock resets to 20 seconds on an offensive rebound, not 30 seconds.

Because it's still the same possession. Offensive Rebounds don't change possession between teams. So if a team shoots and misses with 0 on the initial shoot clock,  then grabs the offensive board and then shoots with 0 on the second shot clock, that's counted as a 50 second possession, not a 30 second possession and a 20 second possession

[PointWarrior]

You’ve established you don’t understand advanced metrics even though the current head coach and staff uses them regularly.

How did metrics help Shaka today?

[Uncle Rico]

How did metrics help Shaka today?

Don’t know.  We’d have to ask him if it influenced his rotations at all.  Given that him and his staff have discussed this as to influencing what they do, I’d assume plenty

[Not A Serious Person]

Because it's still the same possession. Offensive Rebounds don't change possession between teams. So if a team shoots and misses with 0 on the initial shoot clock,  then grabs the offensive board and then shoots with 0 on the second shot clock, that's counted as a 50 second possession, not a 30 second possession and a 20 second possession

Thanks

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Thanks

You're welcome. I didn't realize this either when I first started learning about this stuff

[BLWarrior91]

It will be a big mistake if anyone goes Pro at the end of the season. Take the extra year and continue to learn. How many MU players have gone early in recent years and been successful? The track record has not been good. Scouts don't care. They can take a chance since they have a pool of alternative players in line for just a few positions. individual players only have one shot. They should put themselves in the best position possible before pulling the trigger.

Spot on.  There is no one on this roster who is ready to play in the NBA.  There’s certainly potential but they all need to get better, be more consistent, get stronger, improve shooting, etc.

If you know you will get drafted and get guaranteed money, then do it.  But going the G League route vs. playing big time college hoops is a bad choice IMHO.  Shaka has shown how he can develop players…why not take advantage of it?

[MU82]

There is no one on this roster who is ready to play in the NBA.

It's fairly common for college players to leave for the pro ranks before their eligibility is up even though they aren't "ready." Happens all the time in P6 programs, and even mid-majors.

Just looking at Marquette's recent history: Lewis, Carton, Bailey, Blue. Even Ellenson, who knew he'd be a first-round draft pick, arguably "wasn't ready" and perhaps could have benefited from another year of college ball.

[Not A Serious Person]

What has changed is NIL money. Now they can "get paid" to stay another year in college.

Can someone point me to a thread or link that details hat NIL money MU players are getting?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What has changed is NIL money. Now they can "get paid" to stay another year in college.

Can someone point me to a thread or link that details hat NIL money MU players are getting?

That link does not and will not exist.

[Not A Serious Person]

That link does not and will not exist.

So it is a secret?

In football, they regularly publish the NIL deals of top players. They do not do the same in basketball? Or MU keeps it a secret?

[Not A Serious Person]

And now we have NIL brokers that take a cut to get kids NIL deals.

https://www.nilnetwork.com/nil-digital-marketplaces/

[BLWarrior91]

It's fairly common for college players to leave for the pro ranks before their eligibility is up even though they aren't "ready." Happens all the time in P6 programs, and even mid-majors.

Just looking at Marquette's recent history: Lewis, Carton, Bailey, Blue. Even Ellenson, who knew he'd be a first-round draft pick, arguably "wasn't ready" and perhaps could have benefited from another year of college ball.

MU82

I know it’s common for guys to leave but in most cases it’s a bad choice.  I’m sure Ellenson made a bunch of money as the 18th pick so it’s understandable that he left early.  But the other guys you listed are another story.  Lewis had improved greatly in one year under Shaka; he likely would’ve benefited greatly from staying.

In retrospect, the Pistons made a terrible decision in drafting Ellenson.  He never contributed for them.  Poor drafting is why they’ve been terrible for a decade.

Guys leaving too early is bad for both college and pro ball. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So it is a secret?

In football, they regularly publish the NIL deals of top players. They do not do the same in basketball? Or MU keeps it a secret?

It's a choice by MU. Maybe they change course but I doubt it