[Paint Touches] Previewing Big East Preview Season

[PaintTouches]

We're starting to get a trickle of 2024 projections come through, just enough to get a taste.

https://painttouches.com/2023/10/10/previewing-big-east-preview-season/

[MUbiz]

 I know it doesn't mean much, but it will be interesting to see where MU is ranked with the first AP poll coming Monday, Oct 16th.

[GoldenEagles03]

I know it doesn't mean much, but it will be interesting to see where MU is ranked with the first AP poll coming Monday, Oct 16th.

I would guess higher than these metrics have them ranked. Bill Self said they'd be #1 right before OMax left.

Minus Omax
Plus Zaide, Tre, Al

I'll say 6 or 7.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I would guess higher than these metrics have them ranked. Bill Self said they'd be #1 right before OMax left.

Minus Omax
Plus Zaide, Tre, Al

I'll say 6 or 7.

12, third in Big East.

[MUbiz]

12, third in Big East.

But a final 4 or natty. 

[brewcity77]

I think these UConn projections are wild. Borderline absurd.

[El Guerrero 2]

How do the computer systems account for freshman? Is it based on composite recruiting rankings or is some human analyst providing input?

I agree that UConn’s numbers are ridiculous for a team that lost its three best players. They’ll go as far as Castle will take them (I’m not buying that Clingan is the next Edey), but I don’t know how you project that before the kid plays a college basketball game.

[wadesworld]

Newton is very, very good.

[brewcity77]

Newton is very, very good.

Newton did well as the fourth or fifth option on a team with three NBA players surrounding him. But he was less efficient as the lead option at ECU. This is a totally different role for him.

[PaintTouches]

How do the computer systems account for freshman? Is it based on composite recruiting rankings or is some human analyst providing input?

Each model has a way to account for assumed freshman production, but Torvik uses a blend of RSCI ranking and team needs, adjusting for the top 10. "1) I tweaked the recruiting points to make them even more top heavy, but also discounted them less. What this means is that top 10ish recruits are more important, 10-20 about the same, below that less important."

So for this season he sees Castle playing in 64% of minutes with an ORtg of 108 on 21% usage, for a line of 9.3pts, 4.4 rebs, 1.5 asts per game. https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Connecticut&year=2024

Hoop Explorer has him at 21 mpg, and the 4th best player on the team with a net impact of 5.1.