Our Five Losses

[Tugg Speedman]

Looking at the rankings this week:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

Here are the five teams we have lost to this year ...

#1 Villanova (back at #1 this week)
#5 Purdue
#5 Wichita State (tied with Purdue)
#10 Xavier
Unranked Georgia


Need to offset Georgia ... beating #13 The Hall would do it.

Also, if these rankings hold, we will have played six top 10 teams this year.  Eight if #13 Seton Hall gets in. (potentially more in the BET and if we get in the tourney and we win a round or two)

Has MU ever played this many top 10 teams in a season?

[Tugg Speedman]

This hard schedule had Mu's SoS at #18 (and its RPI at #43)

https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/rpi/index1

KenPom has MU at 45 with an adjusted SoS at 31

https://kenpom.com/

[vogue65]

I'm happy this all makes sense to you guys.  I'm not too bright, it looks like a lot of nonsense to me.  Perhaps by the end of the season it makes sense, but right now it looks like nonsense.

Edit: speling.

[burger]

I'm happy this all makes sence to you guys.  I'm not too bright, it looks like a lot of nonsence to me.  Perhaps by the end of the season it makes sence, but right now it looks like nonsence.

Or "sense" if you did not attend a "phantom" class at N.C.>?!@#$?

[mu_hilltopper]

I admit the occasional bewilderment on rankings.  That being said, I think MU's is about right. 

Using the free KenPom alternative (http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Marquette&year=2018) ..

Losses: 3, 4, 15, 19, 56.
Wins: 64, 72, 81, 96, 97, 104  (Wins 200+ are just scrimmages.)

With those numbers .. our #52 rank looks about right.

Then you look at Creighton's #21 rank:

Losses: 9, 17, 37
Wins: 54, 74, 83, 95, 64, 71, 104.

If you just eyeballed that, you'd think they'd be 35-45.

I'm sure the math guys will correct me now.  I reject your reality and substitute my own.
 

[tower912]

So, no 'bad' losses.    If, at the end of the season, our worst loss is to Georgia, MU will be in the tournament and will consider it a good regular season. 

[lurch91]

So, no 'bad' losses.    If, at the end of the season, our worst loss is to Georgia, MU will be in the tournament and will consider it a good regular season.

But will Wojo's huddles have improved and will he still be on the hot seat????

[KampusFoods]

So, no 'bad' losses.    If, at the end of the season, our worst loss is to Georgia, MU will be in the tournament and will consider it a good regular season.

Theoretically we could lose to novaX2 XavierX2 HallX2 CreightonX2 and Butler X2, and Georgia would still be our worst loss. We'd have minimum 10 BE losses and that, according to most, leaves us out.

[mr.MUskie]

Edit: speling.

 

[Benny B]

We haven't hit double-digits in January yet (both calendar days or degrees above freezing), so rankings are - mostly - just for fun at this point.  But as a static barometric indicator of performance, I think it's safe to say that this season is shaping up to be better than most expected.

So..... um...... I believe an "extend Wojo" is in order, eh?

[The Lens]

We have 1 top 50 win and 3 home losses, I'd say we pump the brakes on declaring anything.

Tonight is a nice measuring stick.

[mu_hilltopper]

Edit: speling.

 

I'm a stikler for speling good.

[Benny B]

 


I'm a stikler for speling gud.

FIFY

[Dawson Rental]

We have 1 top 50 win and 3 home losses, I'd say we pump the brakes on declaring anything.

Tonight is a nice measuring stick.

Who'd we beat who is top 50?

Providence may be, but they aren't now.

Edit: Okay, I guess CBS puts 'em there. Sagarin and Kenpom do not.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Who'd we beat who is top 50?

Providence may be, but they aren't now.

Edit: Okay, I guess CBS puts 'em there. Sagarin and Kenpom do not.

They are top 50 in RPI.

[The Lens]

I was referencing ESPN's "nitty gritty" page. 

[Dawson Rental]

They are top 50 in RPI.

You don't know that.  Very few people know that and they won't tell.  The NCAA keeps it secret, CBS is only making their best guess which is 48, so they might not be top 50 in the only RPI that counts.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

You don't know that.  Very few people know that and they won't tell.  The NCAA keeps it secret, CBS is only making their best guess which is 48, so they might not be top 50 in the only RPI that counts.

Lol.  Are you serious, Clark? 

[Dawson Rental]

Lol.  Are you serious, Clark?

Yup, open up your mind, learn a thing or two.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yup, open up your mind, learn a thing or two.

Haha. My mind is plenty open.  Websites like RPI forecast and CBS do a good enough job mocking the RPI calculation that it merits discussion.  Ignoring it because its not the actual number and may be off 1 or 2 spots is silly. 

I said Georgia PC is in the top 50 in RPI.  All reputable sources indicate as much.

edit: meant to say PC not Georgia

[79Warrior]

We have 1 top 50 win and 3 home losses, I'd say we pump the brakes on declaring anything.

Tonight is a nice measuring stick.

I agree.

[Dawson Rental]

Haha. My mind is plenty open.  Websites like RPI forecast and CBS do a good enough job mocking the RPI calculation that it merits discussion.  Ignoring it because its not the actual number and may be off 1 or 2 spots is silly. 

I said Georgia is in the top 50 in RPI.  All reputable sources indicate as much.

It takes a big man to admit that what he mocked with "Lol.  Are you serious Clark" is actually true.

BTW, we didn't beat Georgia.  The post you responded to was about our top 50 RPI win.

[skianth16]

You don't know that.  Very few people know that and they won't tell.  The NCAA keeps it secret, CBS is only making their best guess which is 48, so they might not be top 50 in the only RPI that counts.

Right, so let's just ignore projected RPI numbers all year long and gasp in amazement on Selection Sunday when they're announced. Have KenPom shut the site down too while you're at it, since those numbers aren't official NCAA numbers.

Terrible, terrible idea. Horrible, horrible logic.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

It takes a big man to admit that what he mocked with "Lol.  Are you serious Clark" is actually true.

BTW, we didn't beat Georgia.  The post you responded to was about our top 50 RPI win.

Oh my.  I was mocking your silly assertion that publicized RPI numbers are worthless.   

I meant to say PC, not Georgia.  My bad. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Right, so let's just ignore projected RPI numbers all year long and gasp in amazement on Selection Sunday when they're announced. Have KenPom shut the site down too while you're at it, since those numbers aren't official NCAA numbers.

Terrible, terrible idea. Horrible, horrible logic.

This!

[GGGG]

Right, so let's just ignore projected RPI numbers all year long and gasp in amazement on Selection Sunday when they're announced. Have KenPom shut the site down too while you're at it, since those numbers aren't official NCAA numbers.

Terrible, terrible idea. Horrible, horrible logic.

He actually never said we should ignore projected RPI (or KenPom).  Just that we should remember the caveat.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

My understanding is that ESPN regularly gets RPI wrong but most other sites calculate it correctly. It's not a secret number, its a formula.

[brewcity77]

If a national pundit had Xavier, Villanova, Purdue, and Wichita State as their Final Four right now it'd be perfectly acceptable.

[Benny B]

It's not a secret people.  Ten years ago it may have been, but the NCAA has been updating and publishing their RPI on a daily basis for a while now.

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi



Though RPI is mostly worthless as a metric until after Valentine's Day, FWIW PC's official NCAA RPI is 47 through yesterday's games.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

[dsfire]

I admit the occasional bewilderment on rankings.  That being said, I think MU's is about right. 

Using the free KenPom alternative (http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Marquette&year=2018) ..

Losses: 3, 4, 15, 19, 56.
Wins: 64, 72, 81, 96, 97, 104  (Wins 200+ are just scrimmages.)

With those numbers .. our #52 rank looks about right.

Then you look at Creighton's #21 rank:

Losses: 9, 17, 37
Wins: 54, 74, 83, 95, 64, 71, 104.

If you just eyeballed that, you'd think they'd be 35-45.

I'm sure the math guys will correct me now.  I reject your reality and substitute my own.

A lot of it in this case has to do with margin of victory - especially since they jumped from ~30 to ~20 after winning by 24 at Georgetown this weekend.  Even excluding that game, however, their average point differential vs. opponents is +16.8 ppg compared to our +7.1.  That papers over quite a bit of differential in SOS.  That said, the results vs. teams in the 26-100 range are much closer.