2020-21 NFL Season

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Are the Packers really only -3.5?

I haven’t bet on an NFL game in a long time, but that is soooo tempting.

Two reasons:
1) Brady
2) TB beat GB by four touchdowns earlier in the season.

[JWags85]

Agreed. I kept watching to see where the concussion could have occurred. It wasn’t anything like Lamar Jackson. But his actions upon getting up screamed “concussion.”

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30736432/patrick-mahomes-nfl-concussion-protocol-needs-happen-chiefs-star-play-bills

A buddy of mine is a former high level wrestler who has done a lot of Muy Thai and grappling in his adult years. He said he’s had a pinched nerve similar to what is being described and if you get get any of those nerves tweaked, it’s very disorienting/immediately light headed and you lose your legs, which would check out

[Dr. Blackheart]

A buddy of mine is a former high level wrestler who has done a lot of Muy Thai and grappling in his adult years. He said he’s had a pinched nerve similar to what is being described and if you get get any of those nerves tweaked, it’s very disorienting/immediately light headed and you lose your legs, which would check out

He looked like counter customers on a Saturday night at Real Chili.

[MU82]

Two reasons:
1) Brady
2) TB beat GB by four touchdowns earlier in the season.

Those reasons seem, well, reasonable.

But they also make the Pack a pretty attractive bet IMHO.

I mean, New Orleans had beaten Tampa twice, and that meant a whole lotta nuthin' Sunday.

[GooooMarquette]

Those reasons seem, well, reasonable.

But they also make the Pack a pretty attractive bet IMHO.

I mean, New Orleans had beaten Tampa twice, and that meant a whole lotta nuthin' Sunday.

Agree.

I have never before bet on sports (other than informal bets with friends and March Madness brackets), but this one has me tempted.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Those reasons seem, well, reasonable.

But they also make the Pack a pretty attractive bet IMHO.

I mean, New Orleans had beaten Tampa twice, and that meant a whole lotta nuthin' Sunday.

Yeah, I'm not predicting the outcome or whether it is a good bet or bad bet, just the reasons the line is closer than many people seem to expect the outcome to be.

[MU82]

Agree.

I have never before bet on sports (other than informal bets with friends and March Madness brackets), but this one has me tempted.

Uh-oh ... now I’m thinking it’s a sucker bet, with guys like us being set up!

[GooooMarquette]

Uh-oh ... now I’m thinking it’s a sucker bet, with guys like us being set up!

Damn, those guys in Vegas are devious....

[forgetful]

Two reasons:
1) Brady
2) TB beat GB by four touchdowns earlier in the season.

I think this should be replaced with.

1) TB is dominant in the trenches. That is how you win games.
2) TB bet GB by four touchdowns earlier in the season.

If you look throughout Brady's career (and most other elite QBs). They win when their offensive line can dominate the line of scrimmage and give their QB time, and their RBs lanes to run in. Couple that with a D-line that can rush 3 and put pressure on the opposing QB and you win games.

You don't have that, and suddenly your "elite" QB starts to look a lot more average.

[cheebs09]

I think this should be replaced with.

1) TB is dominant in the trenches. That is how you win games.
2) TB bet GB by four touchdowns earlier in the season.

If you look throughout Brady's career (and most other elite QBs). They win when their offensive line can dominate the line of scrimmage and give their QB time, and their RBs lanes to run in. Couple that with a D-line that can rush 3 and put pressure on the opposing QB and you win games.

You don't have that, and suddenly your "elite" QB starts to look a lot more average.

That’s the part that worries me most about this game. If we can generate a pass rush, we should be good. That’s a pretty big if.

I’m hoping the cold impacts the Bucs, but obviously Brady has experience in the cold. That’s why I was hoping for the Saints. The change from indoor/turf always seems to give them problems. That and Brady definitely has much more left than Brees.

[hairy worthen]

That’s the part that worries me most about this game. If we can generate a pass rush, we should be good. That’s a pretty big if.

I’m hoping the cold impacts the Bucs, but obviously Brady has experience in the cold. That’s why I was hoping for the Saints. The change from indoor/turf always seems to give them problems. That and Brady definitely has much more left than Brees.

The first game between Bucs and Packers has about as much meaning as the first game between Tampa and Saints. For whatever reason, Rodgers was not right in that game. It is unlikely that will happen again and extremely unlikely he will throw a pick six and another almost pick six. 

Brady isn’t used to the cold. He is acclimated to the warm weather now. I don’t necessarily buy into weather angle, but coming from 80 degrees, the  25 degree temperature is going to feel much colder for Tampa than it will for Packers.

[Uncle Rico]

The first game between Bucs and Packers has about as much meaning as the first game between Tampa and Saints. For whatever reason, Rodgers was not right in that game. It is unlikely that will happen again and extremely unlikely he will throw a pick six and another almost pick six. 

Brady isn’t used to the cold. He is acclimated to the warm weather now. I don’t necessarily buy into weather angle, but coming from 80 degrees, the  25 degree temperature is going to feel much colder for Tampa than it will for Packers.

Brady spent his entire career in New England.  I doubt he forgot how to handle the cold

[hairy worthen]

Brady spent his entire career in New England.  I doubt he forgot how to handle the cold

Sure, he knows “how” to play in it and how to prepare for it, but playing in New England a year ago does nothing for how it is going to feel for him now. If you live in a cold climate how does 50 degrees feel in September vs how it feels in late January. The body acclimates, it isn’t that hard to figure out.

[JWags85]

Brady spent his entire career in New England.  I doubt he forgot how to handle the cold

It’s not handling the cold mentally as much as his body not being equipped for it. He’s 44, he’s looked stiff at times this year.  He was not great down the stretch last year in NE in the colder months.  And now he’s spent a year, and a full season playing in warm temps.  He had 1 game under 50 degrees all seasons. I think it’s a valid point.  Same would have held true for Brees.

[Dr. Blackheart]

In Chicago we called it "Bears Weather", which all worked in '85 when Lake Michigan gusts caused Sean Landetta miss on a punt attempt. Otherwise warm weather teams came into Chicago and beat the Bears in the playoffs.

[Sir Lawrence]

The Buccaneers are 1-17 all-time when temp is 32 degrees or below.   And Packer fans need to worry about special teams. 

[Uncle Rico]

It’s not handling the cold mentally as much as his body not being equipped for it. He’s 44, he’s looked stiff at times this year.  He was not great down the stretch last year in NE in the colder months.  And now he’s spent a year, and a full season playing in warm temps.  He had 1 game under 50 degrees all seasons. I think it’s a valid point.  Same would have held true for Brees.

If the Packers don’t get a pass rush on him, he’ll be fine.  Whatever team hits the qb the most will win

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

It's not the cold that's going to be the only issue.  If the snow in the forecast holds up, it's going to make the surface slick.  That is an environment that the Packers play in regularly and one Tampa does not.  It will mitigate Tampa's speed advantage, and help the Packer receivers.

That being said, the biggest factors are going to be what they usually are - limiting turnovers on offense, creating negative plays on defense, etc.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

And I think the Packer's pass rush is largely fine.  They tend to play a pretty bend, but don't break defense.  But late in games when they need to make stops or make a big sack, they generally can get pressure when they need to.

[shoothoops]

Great piece on Pam Oliver, a pioneer for Women of Color in the game:

https://sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/foxs-pam-oliver-is-a-pioneer-and-she-has-scars-and-respect-to-prove-it-060550995.html?__twitter_impression=true

[cheebs09]

It’s not handling the cold mentally as much as his body not being equipped for it. He’s 44, he’s looked stiff at times this year.  He was not great down the stretch last year in NE in the colder months.  And now he’s spent a year, and a full season playing in warm temps.  He had 1 game under 50 degrees all seasons. I think it’s a valid point.  Same would have held true for Brees.

I remember against the Giants in the NFC Championship, you could tell Favre was not comfortable in the cold. I think in poor conditions, Rodgers stats are absurdly good compared to others.

Should be a fun one.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I remember against the Giants in the NFC Championship, you could tell Favre was not comfortable in the cold. I think in poor conditions, Rodgers stats are absurdly good compared to others.

Should be a fun one.

Yes exactly.  Just being cold isn't helpful at all.  But mid 20 and sloppy definitely benefits Rodgers.  Cold for Tampa.  Not really cold for Green Bay.

[Spotcheck Billy]

It’s not handling the cold mentally as much as his body not being equipped for it. He’s 44, he’s looked stiff at times this year.  He was not great down the stretch last year in NE in the colder months.  And now he’s spent a year, and a full season playing in warm temps.  He had 1 game under 50 degrees all seasons. I think it’s a valid point.  Same would have held true for Brees.

Yup, Favre looked miserable in the cold his last 2 years in GB, that playoff game against the Giants comes to mind.

[hairy worthen]

I remember against the Giants in the NFC Championship, you could tell Favre was not comfortable in the cold. I think in poor conditions, Rodgers stats are absurdly good compared to others.

Should be a fun one.

That playoff game you mentioned is an example where the cold definitely made a difference. It clearly affected Favre, it didn’t seem to bother Manning or Plexi glass Burress. Favre also had a miserable game in a cold windy Chicago one year.

To Sultan’s point, its not so much the cold, but how the conditions affects each teams strengths.

[MU82]

In Chicago we called it "Bears Weather", which all worked in '85 when Lake Michigan gusts caused Sean Landetta miss on a punt attempt. Otherwise warm weather teams came into Chicago and beat the Bears in the playoffs.

Amazing how much Bear Weather helped one of the greatest teams of all-time and seemed less helpful when the Bears were, um, not one of the greatest teams of all-time.