Scholarship table
I always appreciate your dispassionate, practical posts about investing. As always, investors should have a long term investment horizon.I love that.
change in leadership here
True - take the long view. Things (globally) will eventually improve. Couple that with the inevitable change in leadership here and long term looks much better than the current mess.
Where are rocky and ‘topper going?
I guess people don't really gas is over $5 a gallon. I had the longest drive ever in 40 years from Connecticut to JFK airport and it was pure congestion. 1.5h to 1.75h typical with traffic. Took almost 3h and if I arrived 2 minutes later they weren't letting me check my bag in.
HermanI am with you, over 75% cash and sitting still until the dust clears. As for things being busy, majority of people are normally behind the curve. When most people are at home down the road, I will be the guy out and about.
MuggsI thought you were spot on with your evaluation of the economy. IMO, there are a lot of people out there convincing themselves this is just a normal or correction in the market and the economy is not that bad. I love taking risks in life, including investing, and I have never been this cautious in my life.
Part of the problem I'm having is that I strongly believe in growth stocks/index funds. They've done extremely well since I began investing which began while I was at MU with the tutelage of my grandfather. I'm still hesitant to go that much (75%) in cash because I don't plan on touching my investment income for 20 yrs. That said, I'm not confident at all that short-term decisions from current leadership will have much (if any ) positive impact on our inflation woes and the market. In fact, they could exacerbate things further Goose which does frighten me. I hope to God I'm wrong but I certainly don't see any quick fixes. I would like to see better cooperation between our leaders and the private sector but I'm not optimistic that will happen.
Always wise to let your whackadoodle political biases guide your investment decisions.
If inflation was limited to the U.S., there might be an argument that the administration was responsible, but it is a worldwide phenomenon. In retrospect, too much money was poured into the system to try to fight off the effects of COVID, by each of the last two administrations, but the persistent supply chain problems, coupled with a serious war, are obviously responsible as well or we wouldn't be seeing inflation globally.What do you think the proper levers to pull in the short term are, beyond jacking up interest rates?
I don't entirely disagree.Interest rate hikes obviously. Stopping discussion of student loan forgiveness, which would be the wrong lever. Some serious cuts elsewhere in government if they insist on spending heavily, like the infrastructure bill.I'm not totally sure what they do in the short term, I'm not an economist, but they definitely f-ed up playing it off as insignificant or transitory awhile ago.
There would be inflation no matter who was running things but this administration is batting .000 when it comes to anticipating the consequences of their chosen policies. We’ve gone from hearing “the economy is humming, don’t worry about ‘transitory’ inflation” to “a recession isn’t inevitable” in literally almost no time. Imagine if Manchin hadn’t blocked “Build Back Better” where inflation would be headed. And student loan “forgiveness” (payment transfer to taxpayers) would make bad worse. And it’s not just inflation - everywhere incompetence runs rampant. Afghanistan, the border, energy policy - consequences obvious to many catch them by surprise. The plant that produces 40% of the country’s baby formula is shut down in February and they’re dumbfounded by dangerous shortages months later. Meanwhile, the President is stumbling through speeches, tripping on the stairs, shaking hands with the invisible man and falling off his bike - as public confidence sinks to dangerous lows.Through it all, the buck never stops “here”. It stops in Russia, Exxon headquarters and Trump Tower - but never “here”.Sorry for the politics - but it amazes me that a board so keen at pointing out mistakes from 2016-2020 (and there were many) is now so sanguine in the face of the current sh!t storm.
Physically we were saying the same thing about Trump. Needing help down ramps, needing two hands to drink water, u able to finish sentences without random non sequitirs. Politically, Biden is who I always thought he was. Which is not a compliment.Trump was worse, and worse than I thought he would be. The most corrupt, incompetent president in history and an existential threat to democracy itself. Which isn't over yet.