Explosions in Kiev

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I ask this with total ignorance…

Russia, sooner rather than later, will have to be on the brink of total bankruptcy, no? Their state bank cash reserves are both plummeting and getting close to the brink of worthlessness, no? The government can’t seemingly borrow from anyone, and can’t lean on any (?) assets as collateral. Yet, their government is going to try to keep conducting a war?

I’m sure I’m missing a bunch of things, just curious if my rationale is on point or not.

Dish,
I read from various places.  Russia has $350bil in reserves and they are blowing $20bil a day.  So 17.5 days.  Don't know what that means after that?

[Warriors4ever]

Poland, Sweden, the UK and the Czech Republic had already announced they would not play against Russia.  Their next World Cup qualifier was supposed to be against Poland in Russia later in March.

[NCMUFan]

My question is:
What benefits the USA with Russia expansion?
So, are those in the USA supporting Russia have some monetary gain by Russia expansion or do they just desire some attention?

[rocket surgeon]

About the only people(used lightly) who seem for or indifferent at very least are the ccp. they are licking their chops staring at Taiwan like a lion on red meat  also, little rocket man, no relation of course seems uninhibited once again.  Other than that, it seems the world thank God, is united against the Sluggo

[Billy Hoyle]

My question is:
What benefits the USA with Russia expansion?
So, are those in the USA supporting Russia have some monetary gain by Russia expansion or do they just desire some attention?

I'm sure some have financial gain (much like those who opposed US intervention in WWII did as well) but for the most part, it's pure political partisanship.

Trump was a Putin fan boy (and worse) for four years, so the Trump loyalists go with whatever he says. If Trump came out in full support of Ukraine and Zelenskyy his base would rally around Ukraine and the left would be posting Russian flags on their social media profile pics.

[tower912]

Trump was a Putin fan boy (and worse) for four years

Apologies.   

[rocky_warrior]

Trump was a Putin fan boy (and worse) for four years, so the Trump loyalists go with whatever he says. If Trump came out in full support of Ukraine and Zelenskyy his base would rally around Ukraine and the left would be posting Russian flags on their social media profile pics.

Stop.

[MuggsyB]

I'm sure some have financial gain (much like those who opposed US intervention in WWII did as well) but for the most part, it's pure political partisanship.

Trump was a Putin fan boy (and worse) for four years, so the Trump loyalists go with whatever he says. If Trump came out in full support of Ukraine and Zelenskyy his base would rally around Ukraine and the left would be posting Russian flags on their social media profile pics.

This really isn't helpful.   We have an exceedingly difficult situation,, and it's  long-term, no matter how this plays out. 

[pbiflyer]

I've seen a few people say the bolded above and I'm not sure that it is true.  I saw an article that I believe said that 80% of the troops staged at the Ukrainian border had been deployed into Ukraine....not that 80% of Russia's total military was in Ukraine.  Perhaps I misinterpreted that, but I'd have to think that Russia's total military personnel numbers in the millions, not a couple hundred thousand (the last numbers I saw reported for the troop buildup at the borders was ~140k if memory serves).

From a military analyst I know. So those other reserves might not be so available.

 I'm not convinced that the Russian army really has a lot of resources available to bring in that they aren't already using. They have a lot of tanks and armored vehicles on paper, but when you dig a little for details, most of them are in warehouses, probably stripped for parts to keep the ones they're using operational. They don't have a huge military budget - it's comparable to France or Germany, or the total budget of the University of California system, and they have to use it to maintain all their bases, buy stuff, feed troops, pay them something .

[Skatastrophy]

From a military analyst I know. So those other reserves might not be so available.

 I'm not convinced that the Russian army really has a lot of resources available to bring in that they aren't already using. They have a lot of tanks and armored vehicles on paper, but when you dig a little for details, most of them are in warehouses, probably stripped for parts to keep the ones they're using operational. They don't have a huge military budget - it's comparable to France or Germany, or the total budget of the University of California system, and they have to use it to maintain all their bases, buy stuff, feed troops, pay them something .

I'd be very surprised if they don't have a larger air force than this. I don't get why they haven't forced air superiority right off the bat. Like, something's up.

[Billy Hoyle]

This really isn't helpful.   We have an exceedingly difficult situation,, and it's  long-term, no matter how this plays out.

I don’t think it’s long term. The world has lined up against Putin. He won’t go beyond the Ukrainian borders due to fear of widespread attack, and and is losing support of some of his closest confidants within Russia. Intelligence says the Russian Army isn’t so strong or large as made out to be. The Russian public opposes this. Once the money runs out he’s done. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see a revolt from within by his own government officials. That they haven’t taken Kyiv yet is telling.

Stop.

You really believe if Trump weren’t so pro-Putin and instead hadn’t spent four years idolizing him publicly as he did his propaganda networks wouldn’t be a 24 hour love fest for Zelinskyy instead? The question was asked why some Americans were supporting Russia. Do you have another answer?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Like father like son

[rocky_warrior]

You really believe if Trump weren’t so pro-Putin and instead hadn’t spent four years idolizing him publicly as he did his propaganda networks wouldn’t be a 24 hour love fest for Zelinskyy instead? The question was asked why some Americans were supporting Russia. Do you have another answer?

What Trump thinks or does has no bearing on Putin's current actions, or the worlds condemnation of it.  I've made it clear I want to avoid partisan bickering in this thread.  So stop.  Now.

[MuggsyB]

I think the next couple days could be really ugly. 

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Sounds like Kviv is preparing for street to street fighting.

[#UnleashSean]

I'd be very surprised if they don't have a larger air force than this. I don't get why they haven't forced air superiority right off the bat. Like, something's up.

They're quickly learning their migs and Su's are no match for the west's anti Air tech.

[forgetful]

I think the next couple days could be really ugly.

I agree. Things are starting to spiral. I still fear that Russia has been holding back because of perception.

Now with them significantly isolated, and admonished around the world, they may unleash.

Let's just hope that nothing spirals too far. I have more concerns each day as I'm not sure I see a reasonable exit ramp at the moment.

[MuggsyB]

I agree. Things are starting to spiral. I still fear that Russia has been holding back because of perception.

Now with them significantly isolated, and admonished around the world, they may unleash.

Let's just hope that nothing spirals too far. I have more concerns each day as I'm not sure I see a reasonable exit ramp at the moment.

That's the main point, what is the exit ramp?  It's not a positive development to see a 40 mile convoy.  I just don't think it's possible to get the Ukrainians the resources they need and we have no idea what Putin will do the next few weeks.  He very well could be unhinged. What seems clear is he's not going to retreat which makes this an absolute disaster on many levels. 

[WarriorFan]

An update from the Russia side (again mostly fact based, with one jab at lawyers).
- Exchange rate, which was frozen on Monday will begin trading at 10am Moscow time Tuesday for a limited session
- Remainder of MOEX still closed Tuesday
- Companies selling abroad are required to deposit 80% of earnings immediately in Rubles
- All non-payment overseas transfers by individuals and companies are blocked.   (i.e. you cannot get money out)
- Lots of companies over-reacting to the sanctions and stopping/slowing business.  Shippers, Mercedes, Volvo, tech, etc.  One tech company I know well reacted to the sanctions by laying off their entire Russian staff for the next month.  They and their products are not sanctioned... just their legal department, with an apparent inability to read the actual sanctions, decided to stop the business.
- Protesters get arrested
- General disdain for the Russian military.  People I talk to are on one hand disappointed with their seeming ineptitude but on the other hand not surprised and a little bit pleased.
- Apple/Google pay doesn't work with sanctioned banks.  Sanctioned bank cards don't work outside Russia. 
- large commodity producers are working to increase inventory of supplies like consumables, explosives, spare parts - quickly - "in case" things get worse.  Some are seeking a year's supply of same.

In short, the economic shock is just beginning.

[Jockey]

I agree. Things are starting to spiral. I still fear that Russia has been holding back because of perception.

Now with them significantly isolated, and admonished around the world, they may unleash.

Let's just hope that nothing spirals too far. I have more concerns each day as I'm not sure I see a reasonable exit ramp at the moment.

That has been my feeling from the start. He knew he would be condemned for going in, but thought it would pass if there weren't massive death numbers. Clearly that isn't the case.

With the world almost unanimously against him, those restraints may not matter anymore. I fear for the Ukrainian people over the next week or two.

As far as an exit ramp, the only one I could possibly see is the $50+ BILION in losses by the richest oligarchs. If they turn on him, it will get real interesting.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

From a military analyst I know. So those other reserves might not be so available.

 I'm not convinced that the Russian army really has a lot of resources available to bring in that they aren't already using. They have a lot of tanks and armored vehicles on paper, but when you dig a little for details, most of them are in warehouses, probably stripped for parts to keep the ones they're using operational. They don't have a huge military budget - it's comparable to France or Germany, or the total budget of the University of California system, and they have to use it to maintain all their bases, buy stuff, feed troops, pay them something .

I posted this the other day from stuff I read from analysts.  Lied about capabilities , size and efficiency and everyone in the outside world just believed it because there was no evidence to contradict.

* the country is so corrupt, that the military capabilities have been overstated.  Basically the lies got bigger the higher up the command chain and western military analysis were based on what the Russian top brass was saying.  Ukraine invasion is exposing all.

[Galway Eagle]

I posted this the other day from stuff I read from analysts.  Lied about capabilities , size and efficiency and everyone in the outside world just believed it because there was no evidence to contradict.

* the country is so corrupt, that the military capabilities have been overstated.  Basically the lies got bigger the higher up the command chain and western military analysis were based on what the Russian top brass was saying.  Ukraine invasion is exposing all.

Wouldn't this require the people telling the lies actually believing it? I mean if you know you're lying why invade and risk exposing yourself?

[Uncle Rico]

I posted this the other day from stuff I read from analysts.  Lied about capabilities , size and efficiency and everyone in the outside world just believed it because there was no evidence to contradict.

* the country is so corrupt, that the military capabilities have been overstated.  Basically the lies got bigger the higher up the command chain and western military analysis were based on what the Russian top brass was saying.  Ukraine invasion is exposing all.

Basically a Ponzi scheme. 

[Uncle Rico]

Wouldn't this require the people telling the lies actually believing it? I mean if you know you're lying why invade and risk exposing yourself?

Hubris would be a big part of it.  There was almost certainly an anticipation of Ukrainian collapse upon the sight of Russian troops.  World history teaches us this lesson often.  Many choose to ignore it

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Wouldn't this require the people telling the lies actually believing it? I mean if you know you're lying why invade and risk exposing yourself?

No different than the end of the USSR.