Wisconsin game discussion

[MUMountin]

The whole week I've been logging on to see some analysis/discussion about the actual game on Saturday, but haven't seen much.  Even looking at the threads active today, the day before the game, the only topic on point is TAMU's thread on an injured Badger.  The Hate week stuff and talking about the student section is nice and all, but how about some discussion about the game itself?  I don't log in all the time nor do I read every thread, so I may be missing something, but wanted to get something going.

A few topics I've been mulling over:

1. Howard's chicken-wing v. Davison's flopping: How the refs call this could really determine a lot, especially early in the game.  I hope the coaches have been on Markus all week to rein in his aggressiveness driving the ball--can't see him pick up a few quick fouls to start the game.  But, after all the publicity of Davison's charges/flops against NC State, I wonder if there is a chance that the refs won't buy his schtick as much and let them play on.  Intrigued to see what happens there.

2. Heldt v. Morrow/Theo: Wojo's clearly moving towards Theo and Morrow as his go-to guys in the middle, which is hopefully the best for the team long-term.  But, I wonder if we'll see a bigger dose of Heldt, who has held his own against Happ in the past.  And, in a game where the pace will be low, can't afford to have as many wasted possessions, which might favor Heldt's efficiency.  But does that let Wisconsin stick on our shooters?

3. Double Happ or let him beat you inside?  I feel decent about our three bigs defensively on Happ--with 15 fouls and a lot of muscle, I'm ok letting them go one-on-one with Happ and try to push him out a little.  He'll get his, but that seems to beat doubling down too much and leaving Trice and their other shooters open. 

4. How to limit Trice: Seems like we have to use the playbook teams have been using against Howard/Hauser--chase him off the line and let him beat you from two.  I haven't watched much of their games--have his 3PTs mostly been open when teams are doubling down on Happ?  I assume Anim/Chartouny will be mostly covering him?

5. What's up with Sam's shooting?  Sam hasn't made a 3PT in the last two games.  Hope that was just a momentary blip and that he'll make up for it this game.  What do we need to do to get him going?

6. Not falling in love with the three: Last game, when we shot dismally from 3, I was impressed towards the end of the game when UTEP was making their run that guys like Anim and Joey did a good job of getting a quality 2PT instead of throwing up another three.  Did enough to keep us ahead, even if it meant we didn't blow them out.  I hope that we'll see more of that if the shots aren't dropping again.  I think we've done a decent job the last several games of trying to establish some inside offense early on to open up the three later in the game.  Need to keep that up.

Other keys/thoughts?

[jnolan23]

The whole week I've been logging on to see some analysis/discussion about the actual game on Saturday, but haven't seen much.  Even looking at the threads active today, the day before the game, the only topic on point is TAMU's thread on an injured Badger.  The Hate week stuff and talking about the student section is nice and all, but how about some discussion about the game itself?  I don't log in all the time nor do I read every thread, so I may be missing something, but wanted to get something going.

A few topics I've been mulling over:

1. Howard's chicken-wing v. Davison's flopping: How the refs call this could really determine a lot, especially early in the game.  I hope the coaches have been on Markus all week to rein in his aggressiveness driving the ball--can't see him pick up a few quick fouls to start the game.  But, after all the publicity of Davison's charges/flops against NC State, I wonder if there is a chance that the refs won't buy his schtick as much and let them play on.  Intrigued to see what happens there.

2. Heldt v. Morrow/Theo: Wojo's clearly moving towards Theo and Morrow as his go-to guys in the middle, which is hopefully the best for the team long-term.  But, I wonder if we'll see a bigger dose of Heldt, who has held his own against Happ in the past.  And, in a game where the pace will be low, can't afford to have as many wasted possessions, which might favor Heldt's efficiency.  But does that let Wisconsin stick on our shooters?

3. Double Happ or let him beat you inside?  I feel decent about our three bigs defensively on Happ--with 15 fouls and a lot of muscle, I'm ok letting them go one-on-one with Happ and try to push him out a little.  He'll get his, but that seems to beat doubling down too much and leaving Trice and their other shooters open. 

4. How to limit Trice: Seems like we have to use the playbook teams have been using against Howard/Hauser--chase him off the line and let him beat you from two.  I haven't watched much of their games--have his 3PTs mostly been open when teams are doubling down on Happ?  I assume Anim/Chartouny will be mostly covering him?

5. What's up with Sam's shooting?  Sam hasn't made a 3PT in the last two games.  Hope that was just a momentary blip and that he'll make up for it this game.  What do we need to do to get him going?

6. Not falling in love with the three: Last game, when we shot dismally from 3, I was impressed towards the end of the game when UTEP was making their run that guys like Anim and Joey did a good job of getting a quality 2PT instead of throwing up another three.  Did enough to keep us ahead, even if it meant we didn't blow them out.  I hope that we'll see more of that if the shots aren't dropping again.  I think we've done a decent job the last several games of trying to establish some inside offense early on to open up the three later in the game.  Need to keep that up.

Other keys/thoughts?

1) I think this is critical.  Can't afford to have Markus sit for long stretches if we want to win this one, a la Georgia at home last year.  I think we'll see a fair amount of Trice on D vs. Markus as well.

4) From what I've seen, Trice really seems to favor his right hand coming off of high ball screens before pulling up from 3.  Can't go under that screen and hedging out on the perimeter is going to be important.  I'd imagine they'll try to work that early to set up some good looks for Happ going to the basket on the pick and roll.

[Goose]

Last year I called MU in a blowout. This year, my confidence level is not high for a victory. I feel that we will struggle scoring points. I wish we could have carried over some of the fireworks from last season. My only hope for victory is home cooking. Very much hoping that MU faithful are loud and into the game.

[StillWarriors]

2. Heldt v. Morrow/Theo: I think Heldt will play a key role (albeit in limited minutes) in defending Happ. He is so fundamentally solid on D, and I suspect Happ will be able to pick up some fouls from Theo and Morrow. I'm fine with that given his lousy free throw shooting, and I have faith in Heldt to do a more than serviceable job when he is in the game.

3. Double Happ or let him beat you inside? I say man-to-man on Happ with very selective help off of certain guys only if positioning allows. I agree with the notion of trying to push him out a bit, but I don't think he can kill us getting two at a time or making trips to the FT line. If they start working inside out and we are leaving shooters, it'll open everything up for them given how disciplined they typically are. I'm really eager to see which approach we take.

4. How to limit Trice: Never help off him. Give up an easier two over helping and leaving a wide open kick out three. I haven't seen them play too much, but there is no way he is hitting 60% on challenged threes like the ones Markus typically has to take.

5. What's up with Sam's shooting?  Aside from a bad miss or two last game, most of the misses were in and out. It did seem to get in his head a bit. I hope we run something early to get him a corner look, where he is deadly. If his confidence is shaken a bit, seeing that first shot fall would do wonders. I think he'll be fine and when he does hit one, expect a few more to follow.

One other key I've noticed is that a large number of our excessive turnovers seem to come off a steal or long rebound where we see an opportunity to get out in transition. I'd love to see a stat on how many times we have turned the ball over within 2 seconds of obtaining possession trying to force it up ahead with a long pass or dribbling through traffic. Several of those instances have ended up with multiple bodies diving on the floor making us susceptible to transition the other way. I don't know how much we will try to push tempo since it doesn't seem to be a huge focal point this year, but if we do we need to be smart about it and under control.

[GGGG]

3. Don't double Happ at first.  Only start doubling if he starts beating you.  Then make sure you are doubling from one of their poorer shooters.  And I would double with some size (like Joey)

[LoudMouth]

5. What's up with Sam's shooting?  Aside from a bad miss or two last game, most of the misses were in and out. It did seem to get in his head a bit. I hope we run something early to get him a corner look, where he is deadly. If his confidence is shaken a bit, seeing that first shot fall would do wonders. I think he'll be fine and when he does hit one, expect a few more to follow.

Agreed. Sam is such a mental player that when he makes his first shot he immediately gets into a flow. When he misses that first shot he becomes hesitant to shoot again. At least that's how it has been in the past. Hopefully he has grown into a more confident player but there is always some lingering doubt that he doesn't want to waste a possession

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

3. Don't double Happ at first.  Only start doubling if he starts beating you.  Then make sure you are doubling from one of their poorer shooters.  And I would double with some size (like Joey)

Sam and Joey doubling off of Iverson and Reuvers.  Keep Happ guessing when and where the help is coming from.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Sam didn't get a single open shot in the first half of the UTEP game. I think you need to get him going early or he just won't get going.

[goldeneagle91114]

I want to see our boys play within themselves, but with intensity and emotion. Our first loss in the new arena CAN NOT be to these D bags. 

[Floorslapper]

Agreed. Sam is such a mental player that when he makes his first shot he immediately gets into a flow. When he misses that first shot he becomes hesitant to shoot again. At least that's how it has been in the past. Hopefully he has grown into a more confident player but there is always some lingering doubt that he doesn't want to waste a possession

We must be watching a different player.  Sam seems to be one of the more mentally sound/solid/cerebral players we've had come through the program.  He's missed some looks he usually makes in the past few games - happens to every player.  He'll return to form, and hopefully does so against Wisconsin.

I expect a defensive battle tomorrow.  Both teams scoring in the 60s. 

I'd play Happ straight up, until he clearly exhibits he can beat any of Matt, Theo, Morrow on multiple possessions. 

We need Markus to be on his A-game tomorrow to get this win.

[MarquetteDano]

For the first time in a long time not so worried about our D. Happ is going to score and Trice/Charge-boy are going to hit some threes.

But it is offensive end where we win or lose this game. Joey, Sam, Markus, and to a lessor extent Sacar need to get to mid range and hit their shots. Rodents are not going to give us many open threes or close in shots.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

For the first time in a long time not so worried about our D. Happ is going to score and Trice/Charge-boy are going to hit some threes.

But it is offensive end where we win or lose this game. Joey, Sam, Markus, and to a lessor extent Sacar need to get to mid range and hot their shots. Rodents are not going to give us many open threes or close in shots.

Agreed. I would have never thought this preseason, but I have little worry that we will be able to contain the Badgers' offense. I'm worried that we won't be able to score on the other end. Cold shooting night would be really tough to overcome.

[BM1090]

We must be watching a different player.  Sam seems to be one of the more mentally sound/solid/cerebral players we've had come through the program.  He's missed some looks he usually makes in the past few games - happens to every player.  He'll return to form, and hopefully does so against Wisconsin.

I expect a defensive battle tomorrow.  Both teams scoring in the 60s. 

I'd play Happ straight up, until he clearly exhibits he can beat any of Matt, Theo, Morrow on multiple possessions. 

We need Markus to be on his A-game tomorrow to get this win.

Hey. I agree with every single one of these statements.

[real chili 83]

I think we need to score more than them.

Goose, lets discuss this unique strategy over a few beers at BB's on Saturday.

[Jockey]

The Badgers are the type of team we should be able to beat.

Some talent, but slow.

Teams like Indiana are the ones we will consistently have trouble with - quickness to go with the talent.

[damuts222]

Sam will be fine. He does need to stop getting dem' fouls at the top of the key in dem' pick and roll situmations doh

[jnolan23]

Wisconsin's bench hasn't been much this year (in terms of either minutes played or quality of players).  Attacking the rim and trying to draw fouls could be a huge advantage.

Rotation is only 8 guys, but both Pritzl and Ford have the potential to heat up from outside.  Pritzl is one of those guys that doesn't produce most nights, but 4-5 times a year catches fire from 3.  Important to not give him wide open looks to gain confidence early in a game.

[MUBigDance]

Foul trouble could make the difference - Happ and Markus.

Sam and Markus need to take 3's, everyone else be judicious...where is Cain when you need him on this? low minutes...whats up? Keep Trice from making more than 3 threes.

We can guard these guys...Happ doesn't have to get 20.

We're going to win this one. Not just hopeful thinking.

[MarquetteDano]

Wisconsin's bench hasn't been much this year (in terms of either minutes played or quality of players).  Attacking the rim and trying to draw fouls could be a huge advantage.

Rotation is only 8 guys, but both Pritzl and Ford have the potential to heat up from outside.  Pritzl is one of those guys that doesn't produce most nights, but 4-5 times a year catches fire from 3.  Important to not give him wide open looks to gain confidence early in a game.

Problem is the Rodents are 10th best in the country in not fouling and letting people get to the line.  Yes you drive but look to kick it out or pull up short.  Going all of the way to rim and looking to score or get fouled is very difficult against this team.

[tower912]

Because of good positioning and flopping.  Be mindful of doubling the post leading g to an open three.  Because that can Happ-en in a Trice.

[Pops Sims]

Hope I'm wrong here but not really feelin' it...hopefully Howard does his thing again and erases all doubt!

[Marcus92]

This has been an incredibly even series in recent years. Marquette is 8-9 against Wisconsin since 2001, 4-4 at home. It looks like Wojo's best team since he became head coach -- against one of the best Badger teams (after the 2014-15 squad).

Wisconsin has won on the road against good teams in Xavier and Iowa. But MU should be better than both of them. While I expect a close game the whole way, it's time our offense started to find its rhythm. Defense and a good team game will be more important than a 40-point game from Markus. Between Joseph, Brendan and Jamal, one of them will break out and put their stamp on the season so far. Marquette wins 75-70.