Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets

[DoctorV]

Our Kenpom Adjusted O is on the move this week.  Up from mid 30s to mid 20s in a week.  D went from 14 to 11 too!

That’s what happens when you trick the computers by beating a brutal team by 34 instead of 15.

See BYUs schedule and results.
NET 7, KenPom 9.

3-5 in Q1 and then this

W   110-63   Home   (344)      Houston Christian
W   105-48   Home   (291)      Southeastern La.
W   93-50   Home   (343)      Morgan St.
W   85-56   Neutral   (222)      Fresno St.
W   96-55   Home   (184)      Evansville
W   90-74   Home   (216)      Denver
W   86-54   Home   (238)      Georgia St.
W   101-59   Home     (313) Bellarmine


They’ve just beat complete garbage arse squads by 30,40, or 50 and have completely jobbed the system.

[MuggsyB]

That’s what happens when you trick the computers by beating a brutal team by 34 instead of 15.

See BYUs schedule and results.
NET 7, KenPom 9.

3-5 in Q1 and then this

W   110-63   Home   (344)      Houston Christian
W   105-48   Home   (291)      Southeastern La.
W   93-50   Home   (343)      Morgan St.
W   85-56   Neutral   (222)      Fresno St.
W   96-55   Home   (184)      Evansville
W   90-74   Home   (216)      Denver
W   86-54   Home   (238)      Georgia St.
W   101-59   Home


They’ve just beat complete garbage arse squads by 30,40, or 50 and have completely jobbed the system.

Great point Dr.V. 

[mugrad_89]

Great point Dr.V.

That’s why I’m not a fan of margin of victory being a part of NET.

[brewcity77]

That’s why I’m not a fan of margin of victory being a part of NET.

It's not.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It's not.

But in general, the bigger the margin of victory, the more efficient the win. Margin of victory is an easier concept for fans to understand.

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET Rankings as of games of February 4, 2024
New  Old
3   4   UConn   
12   12   Marquette   
16   16   Creighton   
43   43   St. John's
45   51   Villanova   
47   47   Xavier   
49   48   Butler   
59   53   Providence   
66   66   Seton Hall
192   193   Georgetown   
315   315   DePaul
February 5 Team Sheets:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus
MU is 12:
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Marquette

[brewcity77]

But in general, the bigger the margin of victory, the more efficient the win. Margin of victory is an easier concept for fans to understand.

But there's a common misconception that margin of victory is a factor, and there was a margin of victory limited to 10 included in the original formula. Dauster & Oglesby spent about 15 minutes talking about it on their podcast last week, and pretty much everything they said was wrong, and it largely focused on the 20-point margin of victory cap, not realizing the cap was never that big and was removed years ago.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

But there's a common misconception that margin of victory is a factor, and there was a margin of victory limited to 10 included in the original formula. Dauster & Oglesby spent about 15 minutes talking about it on their podcast last week, and pretty much everything they said was wrong, and it largely focused on the 20-point margin of victory cap, not realizing the cap was never that big and was removed years ago.

I know.  My comment wasn't for you,  but for others

[brewcity77]

I know.  My comment wasn't for you,  but for others

I get it. I just listened to that whole segment in rage as TO again and again had no clue what he was so definitively talking about.

[MU82]

I get it. I just listened to that whole segment in rage as TO again and again had no clue what he was so definitively talking about.

Did you break anything? If you're gonna rage, baby, go all the way!

[DoctorV]

But there's a common misconception that margin of victory is a factor, and there was a margin of victory limited to 10 included in the original formula. Dauster & Oglesby spent about 15 minutes talking about it on their podcast last week, and pretty much everything they said was wrong, and it largely focused on the 20-point margin of victory cap, not realizing the cap was never that big and was removed years ago.

Potatoes pohtatoes though.

My main point is that beating brutal teams by 40+ is a cheat code when it comes to jobbing the algos and enhancing your computer profile.

As you’ve said before no system is perfect, and this one is much better than the RPI, but sooner rather than later they will have to adjust to limit the efficiency value of margin of victory based on quality of opponent.

Beating a top 50 team by 20 shouldn’t hold less value that beating a team in the 300s by 45.

The committee should leave BYU out to prove a point!

[PGsHeroes32]

Potatoes pohtatoes though.

My main point is that beating brutal teams by 40+ is a cheat code when it comes to jobbing the algos and enhancing your computer profile.

As you’ve said before no system is perfect, and this one is much better than the RPI, but sooner rather than later they will have to adjust to limit the efficiency value of margin of victory based on quality of opponent.

Beating a top 50 team by 20 shouldn’t hold less value that beating a team in the 300s by 45.

The committee should leave BYU out to prove a point!

I mean BYU definitely deserves a tourney bid haha.

[DoctorV]

I mean BYU definitely deserves a tourney bid haha.

They will probably go 3-7 in their last 10,
good for 19-12, 7-11.
Then they will promptly find themselves on the bubbly and steal some other teams well deserved bid because of their inflated computer numbers….

Unless the committee is onto their farce like I am! 😂

[Uncle Rico]

They will probably go 3-7 in their last 10,
good for 19-12, 7-11.
Then they will promptly find themselves on the bubbly and steal some other teams well deserved bid because of their inflated computer numbers….

Unless the committee is onto their farce like I am! 😂

KenPom has adjusted his methodology to account for schedule and his data is more reflective of a current data than a pre-season data.

If BYU goes 3-7 in their next 10 games, they will fall accordingly.  They’ve lost 5 games to top 40 teams and have two double-digit wins over top 30 teams.

Marquette’s offense has risen because it’s been damn efficient and hasn’t gamed the system the last 3 weeks.  Making 3’s helps a lot. That offensive low point was directly because of the putrid performance against a Butler team whose defensive metrics are weak. 

[Its DJOver]

BYU's computer numbers are good not just because they blew out their cupcakes, but also because they have played their Q1 games close. Single digit loss to Houston and @ Baylor, Texas Tech, and Utah do not hurt your metrics. Beating Iowa St. by 15 more than offsets the 11 point loss to Cinci (also Q1 now).  The 5 seed that bracket matrix currently has them at is very fair IMO.

[Uncle Rico]

BYU's computer numbers are good not just because they blew out their cupcakes, but also because they have played their Q1 games close. Single digit loss to Houston and @ Baylor, Texas Tech, and Utah do not hurt your metrics. Beating Iowa St. by 15 more than offsets the 11 point loss to Cinci (also Q1 now).  The 5 seed that bracket matrix currently has them at is very fair IMO.

Ohio State got up to 9 last year in KenPom and missed the tournament.  They got that high from blowing teams out and then cratered in conference.  Teams eventually find the correct level

[DoctorV]

Ohio State got up to 9 last year in KenPom and missed the tournament.  They got that high from blowing teams out and then cratered in conference.  Teams eventually find the correct level

^^ This.

We will see how good they are in the next few weeks but they definitely didn’t challenge themselves in the non-con.

There is also the ethical aspect of repeatedly “bludgeoning” teams as Muggs would put it.

I’m all about whoopin a team when you’re miles better than them, but it seems to me that Mark Pope is making a habit of it far too often.
I think his motto is “I’m not a Saint, I’m a Pope”

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

It's important to look at all metrics.

Look at BYU's team sheet.  Results based metrics: SOR 25 and KPI 29.  Those numbers show BYU is tournament worthy but they also show their other metrics (NET 7, Kenpom 9, BPI 14) are inflated.

That puts BYU around a 5/6 seed as of today.  Not a total fraud, but definitely not a top 15 team like their predictive metrics indicate.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Couple of borderline teams to watch.  Texas, 2 spots away from being Q1. Creighton, 1 spot away from being Q1A. St. Johns, 3 spots from being Q1A.

UCLA has been rapidly climbing towards Q2 status as well

Texas now 1 spot away from jumping up to Q1.

Butler loss now uo Q2A

Villaova jumped a spots to 45. 5 away from the road win being bumped to Q1A (with St John's being one of the five above them). Would love to get both of them ovee 40 if possible.

Not sure how much more valuable a Q3 win is over a Q4, but Notre Dame is only a few spots away from jumping up to Q3. Georgetown was close until we removed their souls on Saturday

[goldeneagle91114]

Texas now 1 spot away from jumping up to Q1.

Butler loss now uo Q2A

Villaova jumped a spots to 45. 5 away from the road win being bumped to Q1A (with St John's being one of the five above them). Would love to get both of them ovee 40 if possible.

Not sure how much more valuable a Q3 win is over a Q4, but Notre Dame is only a few spots away from jumping up to Q3. Georgetown was close until we removed their souls on Saturday

Dumb question. how do these quad "sub-catagories" work. I keeping seeing Q1A or Q2A

what is this?

[cheebs09]

Dumb question. how do these quad "sub-catagories" work. I keeping seeing Q1A or Q2A

what is this?

I believe that's the top half of a quadrant. No major use other than it's probably a tiebreaker if teams are equal, but one team's wins are in the higher tier of Q1 versus lower Q1.

[goldeneagle91114]

I believe that's the top half of a quadrant. No major use other than it's probably a tiebreaker if teams are equal, but one team's wins are in the higher tier of Q1 versus lower Q1.

Is it real thing, or just something we made up here on scoop?

[UWW2MU]

Dumb question. how do these quad "sub-catagories" work. I keeping seeing Q1A or Q2A

what is this?

It just further parses the categories down so an away game at a NET10 team isn't in the same group as an away game at a NET70 team.

Warren Nolan does a good visualization.

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-teamsheets-plus

[brewcity77]

Is it real thing, or just something we made up here on scoop?

It's a real thing on the team sheets, but if it helps I was the first person to notice and amplify it nationally when the NCAA added the sub-quadrants.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Is it real thing, or just something we made up here on scoop?

A real thing. Its part of the selection committees team sheets and helps break down the quality of Q1 and Q2 wins. It definitely comes into play for seeding.

Here are the breakdowns
Q1A: Home 1-15, Neutral 1-25, Away 1-40
Q1B: Home 16-30, Neutral 26-50, Away 41-75
Q2A: Home 31-55, Neutral 51-75, Away 76-100
Q2b: Home 56-75, Neutral 76-100, Away 101-135