The Bubble

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Uses it less and less every year?  Can you back this up?   

Go back each year and do a search on SCOOP around March and how many people say it is used less and less, or has no impact at all.  Then the selections come out and each year people are dumbfounded with the comments by the chair, the actual selections, etc. I don't know why people put themselves through this time and time again.  Its like Groundhog Day.

Is it flawed....absolutely.  Is every system flawed...absolutely.  Is simply using the eyeball test flawed....perhaps even more so.  No one is saying the RPI is great, but people that want to pretend it isn't used or plays little to no role are annually upset at the results.

Just look  at what happened with the mock committee only 2 weeks ago.  Ignore it if you wish, or listen to what they say, what the chairs of past committees say. To each their own.  Not the end all be all, but to say it is used less and less is based on what?

I certainly do not ignore RPI. Unfortunately, it has been used as the "default rating system" per say for some time. The newer metrics have simply flown by RPI in accuracy and logic. Hence, each year that goes by, more people respect the other systems are realize their benefits. As BUzz said the other day, RPI is good for categorizing teams in big sections. For instance, Top 100 - quality; 100-225 mediocre to bad; 225+ poor.

The committee is a group of individuals who have a boat load of information to digest. RPI is certainly looked at, and will probably even be the rating that will be quoted when first discussing a team's inclusion. But, RPI is just one check in the box at the end of the day.

[T.V. Diener 34]

Didn't hear it all, but I thought it was in the context of them playing both St. John's and Providence who he has on the bubble. Did Lunardi give us any chance?

He basically insinuated that since we play both St. John's and Providence and all 3 of us are on the bubble, we really have a chance to make a statement and beat both of them to get into the field.  Winning today would be the first step but judging by what he was saying... if we win out it seems like we'd be in the field for sure.... 0-0, 3 game season... doable right Lloyd??

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

He basically insinuated that since we play both St. John's and Providence and all 3 of us are on the bubble, we really have a chance to make a statement and beat both of them to get into the field.  Winning today would be the first step but judging by what he was saying... if we win out it seems like we'd be in the field for sure.... 0-0, 3 game season... doable right Lloyd??

Without a doubt Harry!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

A ten seed would put them safely in by 10-12 spots.  Besides, if the 3rd team in the NCAAT is squarely on the bubble as you say, the real bubble teams including Marquette are much further out of the picture than anyone here would want to think.

Xavier's in at this point and probably a 7-9 seed after their win against Creighton.

I think we just have different definitions of the bubble. I consider the bubble to be any team that can play their way in or out of the tournament. Since X beat Creighton, they are now a lock. Before that, they could have ended the season on a 5 game skid

[mattyv1908]

I think we just have different definitions of the bubble. I consider the bubble to be any team that can play their way in or out of the tournament. Since X beat Creighton, they are now a lock. Before that, they could have ended the season on a 5 game skid

They could have, but any bracketology figures as if the season ended today.  Looking at it from that perspective they've never been on the bubble for quite some time.

Put your point is correct that prior to beating Creighton they could have technically played their way out of the field.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I certainly do not ignore RPI. Unfortunately, it has been used as the "default rating system" per say for some time. The newer metrics have simply flown by RPI in accuracy and logic. Hence, each year that goes by, more people respect the other systems are realize their benefits. As BUzz said the other day, RPI is good for categorizing teams in big sections. For instance, Top 100 - quality; 100-225 mediocre to bad; 225+ poor.

The committee is a group of individuals who have a boat load of information to digest. RPI is certainly looked at, and will probably even be the rating that will be quoted when first discussing a team's inclusion. But, RPI is just one check in the box at the end of the day.

There are others that are definitely better at PREDICTING outcomes, which is also why they use margin of victory in their calculations.  Personally, I like Sagarin's system the best.  I like Pomeroy, but we all saw the "Wisconsin effect" the last few years.  As Ken has stated, NO SYSTEM is perfect.  People tend to gravitate toward a system that puts their team in the best light.  Understandable. 

I'm just not going to ignore the RPI or lessen its impact based on what two Chairpersons have told me and based on repeated articles validating it.  The others use margin of victory...that's not good to the committee.  Furthermore, the NCAA created the RPI, and members of the NCAA institutions like to rely on stuff they created, that they understand (warts and all).

[Jay Bee]

There are others that are definitely better at PREDICTING outcomes, which is also why they use margin of victory in their calculations.  Personally, I like Sagarin's system the best.  I like Pomeroy, but we all saw the "Wisconsin effect" the last few years.  As Ken has stated, NO SYSTEM is perfect.  People tend to gravitate toward a system that puts their team in the best light.  Understandable. 

I'm just not going to ignore the RPI or lessen its impact based on what two Chairpersons have told me and based on repeated articles validating it.  The others use margin of victory...that's not good to the committee.  Furthermore, the NCAA created the RPI, and members of the NCAA institutions like to rely on stuff they created, that they understand (warts and all).

You were fine until the bolded part. "that's not good to the committee" -- this is completely made up by you. Some committee members fully believe it's relevant and they are provided plenty of information that includes margin of victory. You're just off base here.

The "they like to rely on stuff they created, that they understand" is again more stuff made up by you. It's a question of individuals and the make up of the group in any one year. All folks at NCAA institutions aren't blind zombies.. remember, many of the committee members are from the same schools that have beef with various things the NCAA does. To claim they accept an "NCAA rubber stamp" as good or something 'they like to rely on because "they" created it' is nonsense.

That said, the RPI is in front of their faces and surely is a very real factor in discussions and considerations. But, let's not get carried away.

[JTBMU7]

From CBS.... Sad but painfully true...
Losers:
Marquette: This was a team that had played itself into the periphery of the at-large discussion by winning five of its last six -- but the Golden Eagles likely needed to beat Villanova on Sunday to really get in the mix. And they lost pretty convincingly. The defeat drops Marquette to 2-10 against teams in the top 50, and 5-11 against teams in the top 100. Combine that with 12 overall losses, poor computer numbers, a bad non-conference SOS, and the Golden Eagles probably will need the automatic bid. They have Providence and St. John's to finish the season, and could play spoiler on those teams' at-large hopes.

[ChicosBailBonds]

You were fine until the bolded part. "that's not good to the committee" -- this is completely made up by you. Some committee members fully believe it's relevant and they are provided plenty of information that includes margin of victory. You're just off base here.

The "they like to rely on stuff they created, that they understand" is again more stuff made up by you. It's a question of individuals and the make up of the group in any one year. All folks at NCAA institutions aren't blind zombies.. remember, many of the committee members are from the same schools that have beef with various things the NCAA does. To claim they accept an "NCAA rubber stamp" as good or something 'they like to rely on because "they" created it' is nonsense.

That said, the RPI is in front of their faces and surely is a very real factor in discussions and considerations. But, let's not get carried away.

Sigh.   Several other people were with me, you can hear from them if you wish.  To paraphrase, 'the NCAA has a process and a way of doing things. Like other institutions, change comes about slowly and when you use something for that long that has had so much invested in it over the years it you don't just discard it.  Nor is there a reason to.  It has value.  It is not perfect, but it is consistent and it has value over the years'

You weren't there, don't tell me what was said and wasn't said.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

From CBS.... Sad but painfully true...
Losers:
Marquette: This was a team that had played itself into the periphery of the at-large discussion by winning five of its last six -- but the Golden Eagles likely needed to beat Villanova on Sunday to really get in the mix. And they lost pretty convincingly. The defeat drops Marquette to 2-10 against teams in the top 50, and 5-11 against teams in the top 100. Combine that with 12 overall losses, poor computer numbers, a bad non-conference SOS, and the Golden Eagles probably will need the automatic bid. They have Providence and St. John's to finish the season, and could play spoiler on those teams' at-large hopes.

Yep, rattle off 4 in a row and then lose in the BE final and I think MU will be right there. But that's what it has come down to.

[Jay Bee]

Sigh.   Several other people were with me, you can hear from them if you wish.  To paraphrase, 'the NCAA has a process and a way of doing things. Like other institutions, change comes about slowly and when you use something for that long that has had so much invested in it over the years it you don't just discard it.  Nor is there a reason to.  It has value.  It is not perfect, but it is consistent and it has value over the years'

You weren't there, don't tell me what was said and wasn't said.

I have to. Otherwise you make believe things like Dan G removing the comf rankings from team sheets when he was commish.

[BM1090]

New bracketology today (ESPN insider) has Marquette as one of four teams also considered (9-12 out). Other 3 are Richmond, Utah and indiana. Win our next four and we'll have 4 more top 75 wins and an estimated RPI of 42. That'd do it.

[willie warrior]

Yep, rattle off 4 in a row and then lose in the BE final and I think MU will be right there. But that's what it has come down to.

We have not rattled off 4 in a row this year.

[Galway Eagle]

We have not rattled off 4 in a row this year.

There's a pill that would help with that. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

We have not rattled off 4 in a row this year.

Fun fact: I had to un-ignore you to quote this, but I never said it was likely.  In fact, I lost a whole boat load of confidence yesterday.  But there is still a chance of an at-large under that scenario.  Otherwise BET champs or bubble busted.   

[ChicosBailBonds]

3 seed vs 6 seed Washington....hopefully we win the Big East and this is a non issue.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

[Coleman]

3 seed vs 6 seed Washington....hopefully we win the Big East and this is a non issue.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

Just looking at this, pretty amazed by the number of established programs projected to be in the NIT....

Marquette
Indiana
Illinois
Georgetown
Maryland
NC State
West Virginia
Missouri
Florida State
Texas A&M
Utah

[NavinRJohnson]

Just looking at this, pretty amazed by the number of established programs projected to be in the NIT....

Marquette
Indiana
Illinois
Georgetown
Maryland
NC State
West Virginia
Missouri
Florida State
Texas A&M
Utah

Was kind of thinking the same thing the other day. Then again, I'm guessing you could put together a pretty similiar list every year. There's a reason MU was like 5th with most consecutive appearances with what, 8?

[The Equalizer]

Just looking at this, pretty amazed by the number of established programs projected to be in the NIT....

Marquette
Indiana
Illinois
Georgetown
Maryland
NC State
West Virginia
Missouri
Florida State
Texas A&M
Utah

We probably need another win to feel comfortable about making the NIT field.

First, realize that the field is not the next 32 best teams--each of the last two years there have been 10-11 auto-qualifiers.  There have been only 21 or 22 at-large teams. 

So 68 NCAA teams + 22 NIT at-large puts the cutoff at roughly the top 90 teams.  A handful of teams over 90 were invited, and a handful under 90 wer not.   Last year from the Big East, Providence (#86) and St. Johns (#89) were invited. 

If we lose to St. John, RPI rank is forecasted to drop to 81 (or increase to 67 if we win).  A first-round loss in the BET would drop us further.  That would seem to be uncomfortably close to the NIT bubble.   

[Eldon]

Georgetown just beat Creighton. Not handily, but not exactly a nail-biter either. I would think that win would have put them on the good side of the bubble.

Are they really NIT-bound?

[madtownwarrior]

wooh, hooh - now we are talking NIT Bubble for Marq....   excuse me while I got vomit...

We probably need another win to feel comfortable about making the NIT field.

First, realize that the field is not the next 32 best teams--each of the last two years there have been 10-11 auto-qualifiers.  There have been only 21 or 22 at-large teams. 

So 68 NCAA teams + 22 NIT at-large puts the cutoff at roughly the top 90 teams.  A handful of teams over 90 were invited, and a handful under 90 wer not.   Last year from the Big East, Providence (#86) and St. Johns (#89) were invited. 

If we lose to St. John, RPI rank is forecasted to drop to 81 (or increase to 67 if we win).  A first-round loss in the BET would drop us further.  That would seem to be uncomfortably close to the NIT bubble.   

[Windyplayer]

wooh, hooh - now we are talking NIT Bubble for Marq....   excuse me while I got vomit...

Do you really care? I could not care less if we got an invite to the NIT or not.

[wardle2wade]

Georgetown just beat Creighton. Not handily, but not exactly a nail-biter either. I would think that win would have put them on the good side of the bubble.

Are they really NIT-bound?

Agreed.  The Hoyas are definitely in today, and probably still should be with a loss to Nova tomorrow.  

Georgetown has quality wins over KSU, VCU, and Michigan State on neutral courts, and victories over Providence, Xavier, and Creighton at home.  That is miles away better than other bubble teams, even considering a bad November loss to Northeastern.  Getting swept by Seton Hall doesn't look as bad either... Pirates kenpom is 80 currently.

[wardle2wade]

wooh, hooh - now we are talking NIT Bubble for Marq....   excuse me while I got vomit...

For the last 2 months, every post of yours has been a tired old one-liner knocking MU or the season.  You've become MUscoop's less-funny version of Don Rickles. 

[Eldon]

Do you really care? I could not care less if we got an invite to the NIT or not.

Well it would be kind of nice for the seniors and/or give Buzz a chance to play with the lineups even more, eg, let JJJ play 30 minutes