[Cracked Sidewalks] Christmas S-Curve

[brewcity77]

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/12/christmas-s-curve.html

The season is coming up on two months old, so I decided to do a first S-Curve. To start, I established the conference champions primarily using the NET Rankings. When there was a significant difference between the kenpom and NET rankings (such as Old Dominion and North Texas in C-USA) I made a judgment call. At the moment, the bubble is pretty soft. Here's what I came up with:
 

1-Seeds: 1-MICHIGAN 2-DUKE 3-Virginia 4-TENNESSEE
2-Seeds: 8-Texas Tech 7-NEVADA 6-GONZAGA 5-KANSAS
3-Seeds: 9-MARQUETTE 10-Wisconsin 11-NC State 12-Oklahoma
4-Seeds: 16-Indiana 15-HOUSTON 14-Michigan State 13-North Carolina
5-Seeds: 17-Mississippi State 18-ARIZONA STATE 19-Auburn 20-Kentucky
6-Seeds: 24-Ohio State 23-Nebraska 22-BUFFALO 21-Virginia Tech
7-Seeds: 25-Louisville 26-Florida State 27-Cincinnati 28-Iowa
8-Seeds: 32-Minnesota 31-Florida 30-TCU 29-Seton Hall
9-Seeds: 33-Villanova 34-LSU 35-Butler 36-Utah State
10-Seeds: 40-St. John's 39-Kansas State 38-Purdue 37-Creighton
11-Seeds: 41-Mississippi 42-Iowa State 43-VCU 44-FURMAN
12-Seeds: 50-LIPSCOMB 49-UC-IRVINE 48-St. Louis/47-Texas 46-Arizona/45-San Francisco
13-Seeds: 51-BELMONT 52-PENN 53-CHARLESTON 54-OLD DOMINION
14-Seeds: 58-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 57-MONTANA 56-VERMONT 55-NEW MEXICO STATE
15-Seeds: 59-RADFORD 60-DRAKE 61-TEXAS STATE 62-WRIGHT STATE
16-Seeds: 68-NORTH CAROLINA A&T/67-TEXAS SOUTHERN 66-CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE/65-RIDER 64-LEHIGH 63-ABILENE CHRISTIAN

Last Four In: San Francisco, Arizona, Texas, St. Louis
Last Four Byes: Kansas State, St. John's, Mississippi, Iowa State

First Four Out: Maryland, Syracuse, Oregon, Clemson
Next Four Out: Providence, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Vanderbilt

Also Considered: UCF, Penn State, Washington, Fresno State, Murray State, St. Mary's, West Virginia, Miami, Alabama, Arkansas, UCLA, Baylor, Colorado

Marquette came up higher than I expected. That could be a personal bias, but they are one of only three teams in the nation with four top-50 Pomeroy wins (actually all top-40) and zero sub-25 losses. The other two are Michigan and Duke. When you are comparing top-100 games and the actual wins and losses in those games, MU's resume is really tough.

There were three teams that stood out that I was higher on than most others. I have NC State on the 3-line, higher than anyone at Bracket Matrix, despite their soft schedule. They are 3-1 in top-100 kenpom games with the only loss on the road at Wisconsin. Seton Hall is another team I'm higher on. All of their losses are to teams in the field while they boast three top-50 kenpom wins away from home. The last is St. Louis, who most don't have in the field. They are my last team in despite their low kenpom ranking because of their wins over Seton Hall and Butler while sporting a respectable 3-3 top-100 record and only one loss outside the top-100.

I also noticed three teams I'm lower on. Michigan State is on my 4-line because while the computers like them, they don't have any top-25 kenpom wins while having a loss outside the top-25. The teams ahead of them have either better wins, more acceptable losses, or both. Florida State is another one I'm not as high on. I'm not sold on either the Florida or Purdue wins being as good as they looked in the preseason. The last one is UCF, who are one of the last four in on Bracket Matrix but not even in my next four out. Their entire resume is a win over Alabama that is offset by an ugly home loss to Florida Atlantic. They will need to pick up a couple big wins in conference play if they want to make the field. Beating Houston and/or Cincinnati at least twice feels like a must.

Finally, some thoughts on the Big East. After Marquette, no one's resume has really separated itself from the rest. Seton Hall's wins over Kentucky and Maryland have helped immensely. Everyone else seems to have highs and lows, with the exception of St. John's who's results are all highs but opponents are all lows. Six bids for this league feels like a lot, but I just don't see a case for any of the teams on the outside ahead of Creighton or St. John's (the last two Big East teams). Neither of those two teams has any losses outside the top-25 and they've come away with wins in every game they would be expected to win.

[brewcity77]

One thing someone mentioned on Twitter was that 6 bids seemed like too many for the Big East. I agree, but my bracket is based on resumes right now. I can't leave out 12-0 St. John's or a Creighton team with zero sub-25 losses, the 11th ranked SOS, and a top-40 win.

Because of the down Big East, the chances for quality wins won't be as plentiful this year. That will likely lead to someone dropping out. 9-9 or 8-10 won't get it done for Creighton or SJU. It will probably be even worse for teams like St. Louis and San Francisco, who will have virtually zero opportunity to make statement wins once conference play starts.

Teams like Maryland, Syracuse, and Clemson that play in leagues with 6-7 teams on the top seven seed lines will likely have 2-3 really impressive wins just by reaching a .500 conference record.

Also...there's a very legitimate chance the Pac-12 is a one-bid league. Especially if Arizona State wins the league and tournament.

[WarriorFan]

Very interesting.

I feel that - especially in the BEAST - the conference season will sort out a few things.  We'll find out if the johnnies are for real and Nova will undoubtedly rise up. 

I guess that's why they play the games.

[Marquetteauburn]

One thing someone mentioned on Twitter was that 6 bids seemed like too many for the Big East. I agree, but my bracket is based on resumes right now. I can't leave out 12-0 St. John's or a Creighton team with zero sub-25 losses, the 11th ranked SOS, and a top-40 win.

Agree, but it is a hard year to forecast I believe because of MU's 18/20 being the only ranked team in the conference could hurt because there will not be the normal chances for the bottom 6 teams to pick up wins over ranked teams.  If NOVA, St. John's and Seton Hall end up with MU in the top 25 it will likely mean they didn't lose many to the other 6 teams and I just wonder if the "eye test" of never seeing those big wins over ranked teams could hurt more than most years since people are getting use to a new system in NET.

Add to that us so far being screwed by kenpom because the single digit win over UTEP practically offsets all of our big wins right around it since this was about 15 points WORSE than his projected result. (literally if a team is a 2-point underdog against 5 great teams and beats them all by a point, and then is a 22-point favorite against a UTEP and only wins by 7, then kenpom calculates the team's ranking should not change because they were just 3 points better than 5 teams in the upset for a total of +15 and 15 points worse than the one "UTEP"). Its a glitch he knows about, he has just find his experiments to fix it just haven't worked and he has gone to going straight point margins.

I certainly agree with you on another 6-bid year being justified, and hopefully the big upsets like Seton Hall over Kentucky get people to believe this is a year the BE still has great debt - just not any 1 or 2 seeds (unless maybe we keep playing like this!)

[jsglow]

As you mentioned brew, it's early.  The BEast probably isn't getting 6 teams and I'll bet the Pac-12 isn't getting one.

[Galway Eagle]

As you mentioned brew, it's early.  The BEast probably isn't getting 6 teams and I'll bet the Pac-12 isn't getting one.

I'm not sure we'll do better than four, maybe a fifth has a good conference season

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

As you mentioned brew, it's early.  The BEast probably isn't getting 6 teams and I'll bet the Pac-12 isn't getting one.

I’ll take the bet on the pac-12 since they will have a conference winner barring Armageddon

[Galway Eagle]

I’ll take the bet on the pac-12 since they will have a conference winner barring Armageddon

It was worded weird but I think he meant they'll have two or three by seasons end.

[jsglow]

It was worded weird but I think he meant they'll have two or three by seasons end.

This.  Meaning 'more than one'.

[brewcity77]

This.  Meaning 'more than one'.

I don't know. They had 3 bids last year, but two were in Dayton. A 12-6 team missed the tourney last year and three 11-7 teams missed in the past two years.

The question is where will the Quadrant 1 & 2 wins come from? At the moment there are no Q1 home opportunities in the league and only four Q1 road games, but for the four top-75 NET teams, they only play two such games each. But those Q1 road opportunities are conversely the only Q2 home opportunities for the home teams.

Teams that only have 2-3 Q1 opportunities simply won't have the resume that teams in the ACC, Big 10, SEC, & Big East will have as they see 7-10 such games.

[MuMark]

Agree, but it is a hard year to forecast I believe because of MU's 18/20 being the only ranked team in the conference could hurt because there will not be the normal chances for the bottom 6 teams to pick up wins over ranked teams.  If NOVA, St. John's and Seton Hall end up with MU in the top 25 it will likely mean they didn't lose many to the other 6 teams and I just wonder if the "eye test" of never seeing those big wins over ranked teams could hurt more than most years since people are getting use to a new system in NET.

Add to that us so far being screwed by kenpom because the single digit win over UTEP practically offsets all of our big wins right around it since this was about 15 points WORSE than his projected result. (literally if a team is a 2-point underdog against 5 great teams and beats them all by a point, and then is a 22-point favorite against a UTEP and only wins by 7, then kenpom calculates the team's ranking should not change because they were just 3 points better than 5 teams in the upset for a total of +15 and 15 points worse than the one "UTEP"). Its a glitch he knows about, he has just find his experiments to fix it just haven't worked and he has gone to going straight point margins.

I certainly agree with you on another 6-bid year being justified, and hopefully the big upsets like Seton Hall over Kentucky get people to believe this is a year the BE still has great debt - just not any 1 or 2 seeds (unless maybe we keep playing like this!)

Quad 1 wins are what is important....not beating ranked teams. SC doesn't care about rankings.

Big East is down compared to last few seasons but as things sit right now MU will still have an opportunity to play 6 Quad 1 games in conference. That will certainly change as the season goes. A school like Providence will have a chance at 8 Quad 1 wins(2 vs MU, 2 vs St Johns, @ Butler, @ Nova, @ Creighton @ Seton Hall)

That does not include BET games.

[jsglow]

I don't know. They had 3 bids last year, but two were in Dayton. A 12-6 team missed the tourney last year and three 11-7 teams missed in the past two years.

The question is where will the Quadrant 1 & 2 wins come from? At the moment there are no Q1 home opportunities in the league and only four Q1 road games, but for the four top-75 NET teams, they only play two such games each. But those Q1 road opportunities are conversely the only Q2 home opportunities for the home teams.

Teams that only have 2-3 Q1 opportunities simply won't have the resume that teams in the ACC, Big 10, SEC, & Big East will have as they see 7-10 such games.

Brew, you're talking analytics.  I'm talking politics. (I guess I need a banhammer!)

[MUBigDance]

. . .
Add to that us so far being screwed by kenpom because the single digit win over UTEP practically offsets all of our big wins right around it since this was about 15 points WORSE than his projected result. (literally if a team is a 2-point underdog against 5 great teams and beats them all by a point, and then is a 22-point favorite against a UTEP and only wins by 7, then kenpom calculates the team's ranking should not change because they were just 3 points better than 5 teams in the upset for a total of +15 and 15 points worse than the one "UTEP"). Its a glitch he knows about, he has just find his experiments to fix it just haven't worked and he has gone to going straight point margins.
. . .

I totally understand this....but for a second, let us just consider the wisdom in the kenpom "glitch". We have to admit there is a bit of fairy dust sprinkled on our season:
* we've had a very nice home-bound schedule.
* Several key games at home.
* Two very KEY wins in overtime one of which we were 3 missed put-backs away from losing.
* a couple of lackluster cupcake wins did expose weaknesses with turnovers and inconsistency.

kenpom's math might need a tweak but as it is now, its telling us something.

More fairy dust awaits as we have a down year in the BE.

We area good team and much better than I worried about after Indiana. We could easily end the season in the top 20...I just hope we continue to get better and consistent and aren't that over-rated 4/5-seed.