R-E-L-A-X

[wadesworld]

Truth is we have had multiple opportunities this season to take control of our destiny by winning very 'winnable' games - win 2 of those and the season is in a completely different place.

- Pitt, Seton Hall 1, Butler 1, Providence 1, St Johns 1

I know people will argue differently but MI & WI could have been competitive as well - so opportunities lost.

I've kind of reached a breaking point with this team where no loss is surprising and I have less hope going into each game that we show up.  At this stage they need to gel again down (similiar to VU/Creighton week) to get me excited for next year.    So very relaxed.

Of course, in theory, every game on the schedule there was potential to win.  Fact of the matter unless you're Gonzaga playing in the WCC you aren't going to win them all.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Of course, in theory, every game on the schedule there was potential to win.  Fact of the matter unless you're Gonzaga playing in the WCC you aren't going to win them all.

I completely agree - that is why I say winnable and get 2 of those.  Fact is we got none...

[MerrittsMustache]

Truth is we have had multiple opportunities this season to take control of our destiny by winning very 'winnable' games - win 2 of those and the season is in a completely different place.

- Pitt, Seton Hall 1, Butler 1, Providence 1, St Johns 1

The loss at Butler was one were MU ran into a buzzsaw in the 2nd half. Yes, they blew a big lead but they're not a better team than Butler. Providence was 50/50. St. John's just flat-out beat MU.

Pitt and Seton Hall were games that MU cannot lose given the way they played out (a big lead vs below average team and a crumble in the final minute). If MU was 17-7 overall and 7-5 in the BE, they'd be sitting pretty. As it stands now, they've got their work cut out for them. Let's hope that the inability to rebound a missed FT doesn't keep MU from dancing.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Butler may have been the best team remaining on the schedule, but it wasn't the toughest game.

According to RPI Wizard, MU's odds of beating Butler were 51%. They have a 31% chance of winning at Xavier, 45% at Gtown and 49% vs Creighton. MU also has 54% chance at PC and 53% chance home vs Xavier. Got to win those near 50/50 games to go dancing.

This is true but RPI Wizard doesn't account for injuries to Mo Watson and Edmond Sumner.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Truth is we have had multiple opportunities this season to take control of our destiny by winning very 'winnable' games - win 2 of those and the season is in a completely different place.

- Pitt, Seton Hall 1, Butler 1, Providence 1, St Johns 1

I know people will argue differently but MI & WI could have been competitive as well - so opportunities lost.

I completely agree - that is why I say winnable and get 2 of those.  Fact is we got none...

Well I'm not sure how you can say we got none. All of our games are opportunities. We've won 15 of them and lost 9 of them. If you want to take out the cupcakes we are 9-9 in those opportunities.

If you're just talking about close games, we are 3-4 on the season in games decided by a possession or less. Wish we were 7-0 but we couldn't get it done. But I would say we got none of our opportunities.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Well I'm not sure how you can say we got none. All of our games are opportunities. We've won 15 of them and lost 9 of them. If you want to take out the cupcakes we are 9-9 in those opportunities.

If you're just talking about close games, we are 3-4 on the season in games decided by a possession or less. Wish we were 7-0 but we couldn't get it done. But I would say we got none of our opportunities.

Could we have lost more games - absolutely.  However, we have a better KenPom rating against all but Butler on that list (included them because of the massive 1H lead).  We take care of business 2 out of those 5 games (or 2 of 6 including last night) and this team is in the drivers seat...instead of being up against the wall. 

My point is that we have squandered a windfall (VU + Creighton) by not taking care of business with some marginal teams. 

Ken Pom ranks For reference - MU - 35, Hall 52, Buter 23, Prov 62, Pitt 76, St J 91

[frozena pizza]

Truth is we have had multiple opportunities this season to take control of our destiny by winning very 'winnable' games - win 2 of those and the season is in a completely different place.

- Pitt, Seton Hall 1, Butler 1, Providence 1, St Johns 1

I know people will argue differently but MI & WI could have been competitive as well - so opportunities lost.

I've kind of reached a breaking point with this team where no loss is surprising and I have less hope going into each game that we show up.  At this stage they need to gel again down (similiar to VU/Creighton week) to get me excited for next year.    So very relaxed.

But by the same logic we shouldn't have won the Villanova game, we were lucky to hold on at home against Seton Hall and almost blew the Fresno game.  If those games had turned out differently we aren't even talking about the tournament.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

But by the same logic we shouldn't have won the Villanova game, we were lucky to hold on at home against Seton Hall and almost blew the Fresno game.  If those games had turned out differently we aren't even talking about the tournament.

Which is why I called it a windfall...in my further explanation

[ecompt]

1) It's not like we have a giant home court advantage, and neither does Georgetown.
2) Is there some rule against watching tape of non-conference play that I haven't heard of or...?
3) Georgetown just struggled to beat DePaul by 3 2 games ago while we took care of them by 12 (I believe).

Gtown also just gave Nova a very good game in Philly, where he would might have lost by 50 had Nova not coasted the final 10 minutes. Hoyas will be favored by five, I would guess, and unless we hit 15 threes, will win. Hoyas can still work their way out of the first-round games and will be pumped.

[BM1090]

Gtown also just gave Nova a very good game in Philly, where he would might have lost by 50 had Nova not coasted the final 10 minutes. Hoyas will be favored by five, I would guess, and unless we hit 15 threes, will win. Hoyas can still work their way out of the first-round games and will be pumped.

Lol zero percent chance they are favored by 5. Likely GT -1 or even. -2 max.

We probably have to play well to win. But I like our chances.

[mileskishnish72]

I'm thinking 8-10.

[Class71]

If MU has a 50/50 chance to win each of the next 4 games the odds of going 4 straight is 6.25 %. That is the cold reality. It is a simple calculation. Just multiply the probability of winning each game times each other and the resultant product for the 4 games is the probability that the 4 wins in a row will occur. If we had a 75/25 chance of winning each game the probability of winning 4 in a row is only about 31%.  Good luck in taking that bet.

[brewcity77]

Per Pomeroy, it would be 10.5%. However, if we beat Georgetown, it goes up to 22.9%.

Regardless, some old Jim Carrey line comes to mind...

[Class71]

Per Pomeroy, it would be 10.5%. However, if we beat Georgetown, it goes up to 22.9%.

Regardless, some old Jim Carrey line comes to mind...

Odds are also higher if the restriction of 4 in a row is dropped and we look at 4 out of 6, plus 5 out or 6 and 6 out of 6. Since you have the individual Pomeroy predicted win percents you may wish to calculate this probability.  Another calculation that is helpful would be to calculate the probability of winning 4 out of 6 etc. and/or winning the BE tournament. Based on that result  we would have a better idea of our chances of going to the Big Dance.

  I must admit I do not watch Jim Carrey but I have watched Moneyball.

 In any event there is always a chance for a better result and that is why the games are played. But if you are a bettor you may want to do the math.

[Golden Avalanche]

Gtown also just gave Nova a very good game in Philly, where he would might have lost by 50 had Nova not coasted the final 10 minutes. Hoyas will be favored by five, I would guess, and unless we hit 15 threes, will win. Hoyas can still work their way out of the first-round games and will be pumped.

This is written as if you didn't watch the entire game and instead only glanced at the final score.

[GoldenDieners32]

This is written as if you didn't watch the entire game and instead only glanced at the final score.

Probably what happened