MU Transfers Help or Hurt?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

All players are risks.

Some bigger than others.

I trust that Buzz and co. can accurately evaluate the risk/reward and make decisions appropriately.

Jae turned out AWESOME. Durley, not so much. Happens all of the time to every coach.

[The Equalizer]

This risky/non risky stuff is silly. Every time a player takes a step up (high school to college, Juco to D1) there is risk, but to say that Crowder was a huge risk in February 2010 but a stud one month later (because he won POY) is asinine. And Buzz knew exactly where Jae stood academically and was obviously comfortable that his progress at Howard from August to February had him on track.

I think that the reverse is actually true - it's less risky recruiting a 19 or 20 year old man from junior college than a 15,16 or 17 year old kid from high school.

All I can say is re-read the article below.  

If you don't think there was risk involved in signing Crowder, then you don't understand the concept of risk.

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/15/jae-crowder-almost-didnt-make-it-out-of-the-juco-ranks/

[Benny B]

All I can say is re-read the article below.  

If you don't think there was risk involved in signing Crowder, then you don't understand the concept of risk.

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/15/jae-crowder-almost-didnt-make-it-out-of-the-juco-ranks/

If you want to talk about risk conceptually, you must also talk reward, i.e. if you don't think the potential reward with Jae Crowder was worth the risk, then you don't understand the concept of risk.

Newsflash... EVERY recruit is a risk.  Most of the low-risk, high-reward recruits go to Kentucky, Duke, UNC, etc., so if you want high-reward guys at MU, you're going to take high-level risks.  That's not to say that every guy you recruit has to be high-risk, but to imply that Jae Crowder was a risk greater than the potential reward is borderline idiotic.

Read your article... Buzz only saw Jae once in person.  That doesn't mean he didn't already know what he needed to know before he arrived at the gym that day.

[Lennys Tap]

If you want to talk about risk conceptually, you must also talk reward, i.e. if you don't think the potential reward with Jae Crowder was worth the risk, then you don't understand the concept of risk.

Newsflash... EVERY recruit is a risk.  Most of the low-risk, high-reward recruits go to Kentucky, Duke, UNC, etc., so if you want high-reward guys at MU, you're going to take high-level risks.  That's not to say that every guy you recruit has to be high-risk, but to imply that Jae Crowder was a risk greater than the potential reward is borderline idiotic.

Read your article... Buzz only saw Jae once in person.  That doesn't mean he didn't already know what he needed to know before he arrived at the gym that day.

I was preparing a response to 84 and Brew, but this says it all.

[brewcity77]

No one has disputed that there was a potential reward pay-off. No one has disputed that it didn't work out well. My response regarding Jae is primarily in regards to this false post:

Disagree about "little known".  Jae was the NJCAA player of the year, and was very highly sought by a lot of teams other than MU. 

When Jae committed, he was NOT NJCAA POY, had not won a JUCO national championship, and was NOT very highly sought by a lot of teams other than MU. He committed in February, when he was still an academic risk and arguably not even the best player on his team.

By the time the JUCO season wrapped up and his accolades and title were won, he did indeed become highly sought after. But at the time he committed, not many teams were knocking at his door. The risk to reward ratio was much higher in February when he committed than April when other schools came sniffing. That's all I'm saying.

[Pakuni]

No one has disputed that there was a potential reward pay-off. No one has disputed that it didn't work out well. My response regarding Jae is primarily in regards to this false post:

When Jae committed, he was NOT NJCAA POY, had not won a JUCO national championship, and was NOT very highly sought by a lot of teams other than MU. He committed in February, when he was still an academic risk and arguably not even the best player on his team.

By the time the JUCO season wrapped up and his accolades and title were won, he did indeed become highly sought after. But at the time he committed, not many teams were knocking at his door. The risk to reward ratio was much higher in February when he committed than April when other schools came sniffing. That's all I'm saying.

I really find it unlikely that Jae was a virtual unknown (and maybe not even best player on his team ... laughable because no one else on Hill was first-team, second-team or honorable mention AA) in February 2010, yet a nationally known hot commodity two months later.
Keep in mind, JUCO season starts about the same time D-I season starts, so by February, his season would have been about 2/3 over.

Also laughable is the labeling of Jae Crowder as a "risk" in a thread discussing him as replacement for Jeronne Maymon.

Is there a difference between sought, highly sought and very highly sought? We know, for example, that Baylor, UNLV and Georgia were recruiting Jae when he committed. Were they seeking him or very highly seeking him?

[The Equalizer]

Most of the low-risk, high-reward recruits go to Kentucky, Duke, UNC, etc., so if you want high-reward guys at MU, you're going to take high-level risks.  That's not to say that every guy you recruit has to be high-risk, but to imply that Jae Crowder was a risk greater than the potential reward is borderline idiotic.

In other words, you agree with me.  Crowder was a higher risk player.

[lab_warrior]

If recruiting JUCOs is all about risk-reward analysis, then I would like to send Buzz to Vegas, so that he can come back with a dump truck full of $$$$.  Butler, DJO, Jae, Fulce, Buycks...the guy is definitely playing with house money.

[Lennys Tap]

If recruiting JUCOs is all about risk-reward analysis, then I would like to send Buzz to Vegas, so that he can come back with a dump truck full of $$$$.  Butler, DJO, Jae, Fulce, Buycks...the guy is definitely playing with house money.

Buzz is in the wrong business. He should be a venture capitalist. He could turn us thousandaires into multimillionaires and billionaires!

[Benny B]

Buzz is in the wrong business. He should be a venture capitalist. He could turn us thousandaires into multimillionaires and billionaires!

He might also turn you into a hundredaire if you decide to cash out after Jeronne Maymon.

[brewcity77]

I really find it unlikely that Jae was a virtual unknown (and maybe not even best player on his team ... laughable because no one else on Hill was first-team, second-team or honorable mention AA) in February 2010, yet a nationally known hot commodity two months later.
Keep in mind, JUCO season starts about the same time D-I season starts, so by February, his season would have been about 2/3 over.

Then why didn't he have other offers at the time he committed? And at Howard, Carlos Emory was more highly recruited out of high school, averaged 11.4/7.4 as a freshman alongside Jae, and ended up committing to Oregon after his sophomore season. By the end of the year, both were getting a lot of attention, and he ended up just as highly recruited as Jae, getting offers from Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Utah, among others.

Also laughable is the labeling of Jae Crowder as a "risk" in a thread discussing him as replacement for Jeronne Maymon.

It's all about context. If you're only looking at it in the now, sure, it looks that way, but at the time, Jae was a guy we didn't know anything about and hoped would be close to good enough to offset the loss of Lazar Hayward, while Jeronne was a top-50 in-state kid that we had just months earlier thought could become the new star of the program.

Is there a difference between sought, highly sought and very highly sought? We know, for example, that Baylor, UNLV and Georgia were recruiting Jae when he committed. Were they seeking him or very highly seeking him?

None of those offers were in at the time he committed. I'm not saying it wasn't a great move, I'm not saying it didn't work out, all I'm saying is that anyone acting like they knew 100% that Jae would not only replace Lazar, but prove to be a better player as a senior is lying.

I'm overjoyed Jae came here. When it comes to a player working out perfectly, I don't think you could script a story much better than the one that led Jae Crowder from high school to Howard to Marquette unless it ended in another national championship. But to say we could see this coming in February 2010 just doesn't quite seem accurate.

[Lennys Tap]

He might also turn you into a hundredaire if you decide to cash out after Jeronne Maymon.

When you return 100-1, 1000-1 or more on your hits (JFB a Juco "honorable mention" AA to 1st round draft choice  - are you kidding me?) you can afford some (actually lots) of misses. And at those ROIs ypu don't need to invest much.

[Lennys Tap]

Then why didn't he have other offers at the time he committed? And at Howard, Carlos Emory was more highly recruited out of high school, averaged 11.4/7.4 as a freshman alongside Jae, and ended up committing to Oregon after his sophomore season. By the end of the year, both were getting a lot of attention, and he ended up just as highly recruited as Jae, getting offers from Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Utah, among others.

It's all about context. If you're only looking at it in the now, sure, it looks that way, but at the time, Jae was a guy we didn't know anything about and hoped would be close to good enough to offset the loss of Lazar Hayward, while Jeronne was a top-50 in-state kid that we had just months earlier thought could become the new star of the program.

None of those offers were in at the time he committed. I'm not saying it wasn't a great move, I'm not saying it didn't work out, all I'm saying is that anyone acting like they knew 100% that Jae would not only replace Lazar, but prove to be a better player as a senior is lying.

I'm overjoyed Jae came here. When it comes to a player working out perfectly, I don't think you could script a story much better than the one that led Jae Crowder from high school to Howard to Marquette unless it ended in another national championship. But to say we could see this coming in February 2010 just doesn't quite seem accurate.

Jae exceeded Scoop fan's expectations. Noone would argue that. Hats off to Monarch and Buzz for seeing more there than you or me. Hats off to Jae for making it happen. But don't you think that just maybe Jae was less of a risk for those truly in the know (Buzz, Monarch and Jae himself) than for the average Scooper?

[Pakuni]

Then why didn't he have other offers at the time he committed? And at Howard, Carlos Emory was more highly recruited out of high school, averaged 11.4/7.4 as a freshman alongside Jae, and ended up committing to Oregon after his sophomore season. By the end of the year, both were getting a lot of attention, and he ended up just as highly recruited as Jae, getting offers from Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Utah, among others.

Jae was first-team AA and POY. I'm assuming those honors were earned based on the totality of his work that season, not just what he did after Feb. 3 when the season was 2/3 complete.
Emory wasn't even honorable mention AA. Which means he wasn't considered among the top 43 JUCO players that season.
Given that, who would reasonably argue Jae wasn't the best player on that team?

It's all about context. If you're only looking at it in the now, sure, it looks that way, but at the time, Jae was a guy we didn't know anything about and hoped would be close to good enough to offset the loss of Lazar Hayward, while Jeronne was a top-50 in-state kid that we had just months earlier thought could become the new star of the program.

My point is Jeronne from the time he committed to MU was considered a pretty substantial risk (academically, behaviorally and daddy-issue wise), so it's ironic that he's somehow being portrayed as a more "safe" recruit than Jae simply because he was better known around here.

all I'm saying is that anyone acting like they knew 100% that Jae would not only replace Lazar, but prove to be a better player as a senior is lying.

Pretty sure nobody has said anything remotely close to that. What's been said is that losing Maymon and gaining Crowder turned out pretty well for Marquette.
Does anyone disagree?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

This thread is one of the finer semantic arguments I've ever seen.

Risk is the word of the day, kids.

What it actually means... well... that's for the Marquette message boards to debate. 

[warthog-driver]

This risky/non risky stuff is silly. Every time a player takes a step up (high school to college, Juco to D1) there is risk, but to say that Crowder was a huge risk in February 2010 but a stud one month later (because he won POY) is asinine. And Buzz knew exactly where Jae stood academically and was obviously comfortable that his progress at Howard from August to February had him on track.

I think that the reverse is actually true - it's less risky recruiting a 19 or 20 year old man from junior college than a 15,16 or 17 year old kid from high school.

Well put, Lenny