LSU Stats

[ATL MU Warrior]

ATL MU Warrior, Tell me where I said JR sucks. He didn't play well last nite. Don't know why that's so hard for you to understand.

You didn't say he sucks.  You said:

Agree w/nyg on the need for a PG. JR may have had only 2 TOs last nite, but his poor judgment (no way he should be taking 10 shots in a game), offensive ineptitude and defensive woes are painful to watch.

Maybe my mistake, but that translates to something pretty close to "he sucks" to me.

[Dr. Blackheart]

First, I said his assist rate is sky high, not his turnover rate.  That may have been a misread on your part, as we are in total and complete agreement there.

Second, I like Junior and am one of the most positive posters on this board.  I think he's an extremely creative passer, and when he plays like he did against WVU in the BEast tourney last year, he can single-handedly win games.  I liked that he was on the attack last night.  I like that he seems to have worked on his mid-range game in the off season and that he shoots it more confidently this year.  If he could tighten up his ball handling and hit his jumper a bit more consistently, he'd pretty much be my ideal offensive point guard.  That's all I was saying.

Sorry...I was confused as that ran into your comment from Henry  where you said say that his turnover rate was kind of distrubing.  My larger point is that Gibbs has a low turnover rate because he shoots first and assists later.  Last night, Junior shot first and had one assist.  That isn't what he does well. When he asists, MU wins.

[MattyWarrior]

They had three turkeys against us in a row.

[brewcity77]

I did this in another thread but will repost here.
====
There is not a large enough sample size for significance.  However, I've been struggling with it as well, and just haven't had enough time to do a deep dive.   But here's the current level of thinking.

Simple Averages (pre vs post)

Offense
Efficiency (1.16 vs 1.07)
eFG% (56.5% vs 50%)

Defense
Efficiency (0.82 vs 0.97)
eFG% (40.9% vs 51.6%)

It's easy enough to just run an average and just say "hey, our offense and defense are both worse with Otule out".  One could say "boom - roasted"...  Otule made all the difference.   But there's not enough data to answer that definitively.

Washington was a poor game, but also the injury happened mid-game.  Looking a little bit deeper, the question for me was the cupcake games.  In the first half of both games, MU was really good defensively.  It was the second half where the defense suffered.  Was that bad defense, or was it just letting off the gas against a clearly overmatched opponent?  No matter what, the eFG% numbers against LSU really concern me.  62% allowed?  78% allowed in the 2H? 

So there's one game against UW where Otule first went out, two cupcake games where MU crushed in one half and was weak in the second half, and LSU, which was bad by any measure.

Obviously a sample size of 10 games, or even 7, would be more valuable, but those are pretty glaring defenses. The first games included games against an Ole Miss team that looks at least as good as LSU, a Wisconsin team that is one of the best in the nation, and a couple against a Norfolk State team that looks better than advertised, certainly as good as either Green Bay or Northern Colorado.

And while the sample size is small, the disparity in data is not. And eFG% that would be good enough for 8th in the country versus one that is good enough for 263rd. A ppp rating good enough for 2nd versus one that is good enough for 114th.

Our defensive rating has fallen after every game since the Otule injury. We were 13th before he went down, then 15th, 18th, 21st, and now 31st. Would we have dropped regardless? Maybe. But I highly doubt that against the opposition we played we would have fallen so far so fast.

Washington tortured us inside with their length and on the boards. Alec Brown had career highs in points and rebounds for Green Bay. LSU destroyed us inside. There is no way any of those things are such glaring deficits with Otule playing 22-25 minutes. And I don't think there's any way LSU wins that game if Otule is in there.

If absolutely nothing else, look at the difference of how we played Wisconsin and Ole Miss versus how we played Washington and LSU, because that's more indicative of the level of opposition we'll be seeing on a regular basis starting a week from Thursday. We desperately need CO back. We're a completely different team without him.

[Henry Sugar]

I don't want to let this pass on Junior (as stats have to be taken in context) and who I don't think had a particularly good game vs. LSU.  First, Junior is 22nd in the BE with this turnover rate...hardly "sky high" for a PG, but no where near Ashton Gibbs good either.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/turnover_pct?conf=big-east&games=1

Second, Junior is 4th in the BE is assist percent with 37.4%, with a A:TO ratio of 2.6 (good for 5th), where Gibbs is at a 1.9.  Junior is doing what he does best:  setting up our shooters at a Travis Diener junior year level.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/assist_pct?season=2011-2012&conf=big-east

A few points, Doc

According to that statsheet link you included, Junior is the 22nd worst player in the BE at protecting the ball.  He's not in the top 50 or top 75 best at protecting the ball.  There are 80 starting players in the BE.  yay?

In addition, here were the turnover rates for our PGs prior to Junior
2010 - Acker (15.4%)
2009-2006 - James (15.9%, 16.5%, 17.4%, 18.0%)
2005 - Diener (15.6%)

In the context of the six years (at least - that's as far back as Pomeroy's data goes) prior to Junior, our PG was turning the ball over significantly less.

Sorry...I was confused as that ran into your comment from Henry  where you said say that his turnover rate was kind of distrubing.  My larger point is that Gibbs has a low turnover rate because he shoots first and assists later.  Last night, Junior shot first and had one assist.  That isn't what he does well. When he asists, MU wins.

I comprehend your larger point that Junior shoots less than other players and therefore his turnover rate will be inflated because of the limited possessions.  However, I remain unconvinced of the value for assist to turnover rate.  I'm also unconvinced that when Junior assists, MU wins.  You got any data to back that up?

[Henry Sugar]

And while the sample size is small, the disparity in data is not. And eFG% that would be good enough for 8th in the country versus one that is good enough for 263rd. A ppp rating good enough for 2nd versus one that is good enough for 114th.

Your hypothesis that the absence of Otule is the cause of the disparity may be correct.  However, there is not enough data to prove or disprove your belief.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Sugar, I love data too, but I've also watched every game and Otule is what we're missing defensively.  He brings something to the table that no one else on the team can replace.

[Henry Sugar]

Sugar, I love data too, but I've also watched every game and Otule is what we're missing defensively.  He brings something to the table that no one else on the team can replace.

Your hypothesis that the absence of Otule is the cause of the disparity may be correct.  However, there is not enough data to prove or disprove your belief.

[MerrittsMustache]

A few points, Doc

According to that statsheet link you included, Junior is the 22nd worst player in the BE at protecting the ball.  He's not in the top 50 or top 75 best at protecting the ball.  There are 80 starting players in the BE.  yay?

In addition, here were the turnover rates for our PGs prior to Junior
2010 - Acker (15.4%)
2009-2006 - James (15.9%, 16.5%, 17.4%, 18.0%)
2005 - Diener (15.6%)

In the context of the six years (at least - that's as far back as Pomeroy's data goes) prior to Junior, our PG was turning the ball over significantly less.

I comprehend your larger point that Junior shoots less than other players and therefore his turnover rate will be inflated because of the limited possessions.  However, I remain unconvinced of the value for assist to turnover rate.  I'm also unconvinced that when Junior assists, MU wins.  You got any data to back that up?

I've been trying to figure Junior's game out this season and I've decided that his impact on a game reminds me of a scorer who can get hot, pour in points and completely take over a game, but who can also go cold, force shots and kill his team. The obvious difference is that Junior takes over with drives and kicks as opposed to scoring but when Junior is "on," he can take control and it's incredibly tough to defend MU. When he's "off," things can go downhill quickly and he typically finds himself on the bench for extended periods of time.

[ATL MU Warrior]

I've been trying to figure Junior's game out this season and I've decided that his impact on a game reminds me of a scorer who can get hot, pour in points and completely take over a game, but who can also go cold, force shots and kill his team. The obvious difference is that Junior takes over with drives and kicks as opposed to scoring but when Junior is "on," he can take control and it's incredibly tough to defend MU. When he's "off," things can go downhill quickly and he typically finds himself on the bench for extended periods of time.

I agree with this 100% 

[UticaBusBarn]

I've been trying to figure Junior's game out this season and I've decided that his impact on a game reminds me of a scorer who can get hot, pour in points and completely take over a game, but who can also go cold, force shots and kill his team. The obvious difference is that Junior takes over with drives and kicks as opposed to scoring but when Junior is "on," he can take control and it's incredibly tough to defend MU. When he's "off," things can go downhill quickly and he typically finds himself on the bench for extended periods of time.

BINGO! It is the guards that make a team. Think about the Warriors midget team two years ago. Small but they had great guard play, including a sophomore (DJDO) who hit close to 50 percent of his three point attempts and seemingly turned the ball over less. The loss to LSU was a result of LSU guards playing better than Warrior guards. Sorry to be a bit of broken record, but, "if you ain't got guards, you ain't got s**t."

[brewcity77]

Your hypothesis that the absence of Otule is the cause of the disparity may be correct.  However, there is not enough data to prove or disprove your belief.

Based on the length of the season, what would be a good sample size? Seems like 36.3% of the season is a fair sample size to evaluate.

[Henry Sugar]

Based on the length of the season, what would be a good sample size? Seems like 36.3% of the season is a fair sample size to evaluate.

A few more games should tell us if there is a statistically significant difference pre and post-Otule.  At least at the 95% confidence level. 

The problem right now is that we have only eleven games... seven with Otule and four without.  Hard to get a good enough sample size.

[Dr. Blackheart]

My response to the Junior discussion from Suge:  The words "sky high" and "disturbing" were used to describe Junior's value (perceived or otherwise).  I provided the the Statsheet data to show that: 1) neither described his turnover rate I felt and 2) that turnover stats need to be taken in context of what Junior provides to the offense--namely assists.

So, in MU wins vs. losses over the past two seasons (where Junior was at/near full strength). 

• His assists were 80% higher on average in the wins
• His turnovers averaged only 30% higher in wins
• His A:TO rate was 39% better as a result
• MU's ORating was 113.3 vs. 104.8, although pace was about the same
• He averaged 4.5 points in losses and 4.7 in wins
• He had 16 win games with 5 or more assists

When Junior assists, paint touches go up, efficiency goes up, winning percentage goes up.  Scoring is a plus but not a necessity.  Against LSU, Junior had one assist and his highest shot total in a game ever.

[Dr. Blackheart]

A few points, Doc

In addition, here were the turnover rates for our PGs prior to Junior
2010 - Acker (15.4%)
2009-2006 - James (15.9%, 16.5%, 17.4%, 18.0%)
2005 - Diener (15.6%)

In the context of the six years (at least - that's as far back as Pomeroy's data goes) prior to Junior, our PG was turning the ball over significantly less.

Junior year assist statistics compared to the turnovers % above to add to this further:

JC:  6.0 dimes/game, assist % of 37.3%, A:TO ratio of 2.6
DJ:  4.4, 28.3%, 2.1
Mo:  1.8 (unfair since DJ got the minutes) but 19.0% on assist % and 2.4 on ratio
TD:  6.0, 41.7%, 2.5

[Lennys Tap]

Normally I don't mind a missed free throw much, but that attempt was brutal.  Gasp-inducing. 

A shank. The equivalent of being wide right on a PAT.