LSU Stats

[Henry Sugar]

1st Half (MU vs LSU)
Possessions:  29
Efficiency:  0.78 vs 0.94
eFG%:  36% v 48%
TO%:  20% vs 22%
OR%:  33% vs 40%
FTR:  Irrelevant

2nd Half (MU vs LSU)
Possessions:  36
Efficiency: 0.99 vs 1.10
eFG%:  50% vs 76%
TO%: 25% vs 33%
OR%:  37% vs 25%
FTR:  Irrelevant

Full Game (MU vs LSU)
Possessions:  66
Efficiency:  0.90 vs 1.03
eFG%:  43% vs 62%
TO%:  23% vs 28%
OR%:  35% vs 33%
FTR:  Irrelevant

Really poor offense in the first half (news, right?).  Defense overall wasn't bad, but the eFG% defense was weak.

The second half defensive eFG% makes me really concerned.  76% allowed is atrocious.  Then, despite forcing LSU into turnovers on one third of all possessions, MU simply could not take care of the ball themselves.  If that 2H turnover rate is a little bit stronger, MU may have enough to win.

Note that for the game, MU won the turnover and offensive rebounding battles, but not by enough to account for the massive eFG% disparity.  Just in case anyone still doubted the relative importance of eFG% in comparison to the other factors.

[Henry Sugar]

Player Stats

Net Positive
Jae +6.9
DJO +1.3

Net Negative
Jamail -1.3
Vander -1.4
DWil -1.5
Davante -1.5
JWilson -1.8
Mayo -4
Junior -4.6

I really thought that DJO's game was a lot worse watching the game last night, so a net positive kind of surprised me.  I do think it was kind of lost how bad a game Mayo had last night (0-5 and a TO).  And Junior should never take ten shots in a game.  As an aside, our starting PG's turnover rate is 24%.

[RJax55]

Mayo was really bad last night. IMO, that Blue/Mayo combo is this year's X factor. I thought Blue was ok, but MU can't get that line out of Mayo on the road and come away with a win.

Last year, Jae was the X factor. When he was playing well, MU was difficult to beat. It's no coincidence that last year's run in March directly correlated with the return of strong play from Crowder.

So far, MU's two worst games have been LSU and Norfolk State. Well, Blue's worst game was Norfolk State, and Mayo's was LSU.

Even if Jae and DJO are playing well, it is Mayo & Blue that will determine how successful MU is.

[GGGG]

The second half defensive eFG% makes me really concerned.  76% allowed is atrocious.  Then, despite forcing LSU into turnovers on one third of all possessions, MU simply could not take care of the ball themselves. 

This is why I don't like turnovers to determine how effective a defense is. 

[brewcity77]

Henry, would it be possible to do a comparison of eFG% and ppp pre and post Otule injury?

[Silkk the Shaka]

As an aside, our starting PG's turnover rate is 24%.

His assist rate is sky high, but yeah that TO rate is kind of disturbing.  One thing I really wanted to see this offseason was Cadougan tightening up his dribble, but that didn't happen.  It should never come above your waist at any position, but that is a cardinal sin as a PG.  DJames had the ball on a string his senior year.

[Silkk the Shaka]

This is why I don't like turnovers to determine how effective a defense is. 

A TO is like a missed shot only better, since it usually leads to an easy transition bucket.  It shouldn't be the most important factor in determining the effectiveness of a defense (as being able to force them is less reliable in my opinion) but it definitely should be a factor in the evaluation.  If two teams are similar in FG% defense but one can turn a team over better, wouldn't you say that team is better defensively?

[GGGG]

Yes, but when you create a turnover in one out of three posessions, but give up a 76% eFG, it means your defense kinda sucks.  I brought this up in another thread, but the response is "look how many turnovers we created!!"

High risk...high reward.  Yeah we are creating turnovers, but we are also allowing too many open looks.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The full court pressure did what Buzz wanted it to do in the 2nd, and that was to speed up the tempo to feed our offense.  MU forced the TO's and reduced the LSU OR rate as planned; however, LSU daggered it with the eFG% as we were too spread out with the press.  DJO's six empty 2nd half possessions (5 turnovers and a front end miss) killed our chances for a V, not that there wasn't a slew of other blame to spread.

Where MU missed Otule though was the 1st half drought where we desperately needed to spread the offense and run the motion gaps.  MU got away from what they do well on offense after a high tempo start.  Otule helps us in a slow down game by eating space and helping to create channels in the paint for our drivers against a pack line defense.  For some reason, DG was out top setting picks when he is more effective in the offense in the low post.  MU also got away from the drive and kick-out that Jimmy did so well with.  

[RJax55]

Where MU missed Otule though was the 1st half drought where we desperately needed to spread the offense and run the motion gaps.  MU got away from what they do well on offense after a high tempo start.  Otule helps us in a slow down game by eating space and helping to create channels in the paint for our drivers against a pack line defense.  For some reason, DG was out top setting picks when he is more effective in the offense in the low post.  MU also got away from the drive and kick-out that Jimmy did so well with.  

With DG now playing 20-25 minutes, it is time to fully utilize all his offensive skills. MU can run pick and pops with DG, freeing him for mid-range jumpers. He can definitely hit that shot.

Also, I would like to see MU utilize Wilson, especially when he is in at the 5, in drive and kick situations. He has a very good handle & passing skills and is certainly quicker than most 5s guarding him.

[Henry Sugar]

Henry, would it be possible to do a comparison of eFG% and ppp pre and post Otule injury?

I did this in another thread but will repost here.
====
There is not a large enough sample size for significance.  However, I've been struggling with it as well, and just haven't had enough time to do a deep dive.   But here's the current level of thinking.

Simple Averages (pre vs post)

Offense
Efficiency (1.16 vs 1.07)
eFG% (56.5% vs 50%)

Defense
Efficiency (0.82 vs 0.97)
eFG% (40.9% vs 51.6%)

It's easy enough to just run an average and just say "hey, our offense and defense are both worse with Otule out".  One could say "boom - roasted"...  Otule made all the difference.   But there's not enough data to answer that definitively.

Washington was a poor game, but also the injury happened mid-game.  Looking a little bit deeper, the question for me was the cupcake games.  In the first half of both games, MU was really good defensively.  It was the second half where the defense suffered.  Was that bad defense, or was it just letting off the gas against a clearly overmatched opponent?  No matter what, the eFG% numbers against LSU really concern me.  62% allowed?  78% allowed in the 2H? 

So there's one game against UW where Otule first went out, two cupcake games where MU crushed in one half and was weak in the second half, and LSU, which was bad by any measure. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

With DG now playing 20-25 minutes, it is time to fully utilize all his offensive skills. MU can run pick and pops with DG, freeing him for mid-range jumpers. He can definitely hit that shot.

Also, I would like to see MU utilize Wilson, especially when he is in at the 5, in drive and kick situations. He has a very good handle & passing skills and is certainly quicker than most 5s guarding him.

100% agree. That pick and pop and the end of the half with DG was a very good look, for example, although there was grumbling on the boards over that one.  However, the guards have not yet adjusted to DG in the flow of the game.  They were just out of sync.  On Wilson, I couldn't agree more.  Buzz is using him as something he isn't right now.  We saw flashes in the NCU game of what he could bring with his versatility....didn't see that last night at all.  

Buzz has a couple of weeks of straight hoops to fold in more into the offense and defense.  The team always has improved its efficiency flow during this break. There was only a one day prep for this LSU game and it showed.  All about the BE from here on out.

[UticaBusBarn]

Player Stats

Net Positive
Jae +6.9
DJO +1.3

Net Negative
Jamail -1.3
Vander -1.4
DWil -1.5
Davante -1.5
JWilson -1.8
Mayo -4
Junior -4.6

I really thought that DJO's game was a lot worse watching the game last night, so a net positive kind of surprised me.  I do think it was kind of lost how bad a game Mayo had last night (0-5 and a TO).  And Junior should never take ten shots in a game.  As an aside, our starting PG's turnover rate is 24%.

As was noted in another thread, their guards beat our guards (see above) and we lost.

[RJax55]

100% agree. That pick and pop and the end of the half with DG was a very good look, for example, although there was grumbling on the boards over that one.  However, the guards have not yet adjusted to DG in the flow of the game.  They were just out of sync.  On Wilson, I couldn't agree more.  Buzz is using him as something he isn't right now.  We saw flashes in the NCU game of what he could bring with his versatility....didn't see that last night at all.  

I think DG is one of, if not, the best shooter on the team. I loved the call at the end of the half. However, it is more than just the guards getting adjusted, Buzz needs to give DG the opportunity to play the pick and pop game. With DG's lack of lift and no left-hand, you can only get so much out of him in the post. However, I think he can hit a few mid-range jumpers a game. It would be a big boost to his stat line and would also open some driving lanes for the guards as well.

 

[UticaBusBarn]

I did this in another thread but will repost here.
====

...

Washington was a poor game, but also the injury happened mid-game.  Looking a little bit deeper, the question for me was the cupcake games.  In the first half of both games, MU was really good defensively.  It was the second half where the defense suffered.  Was that bad defense, or was it just letting off the gas against a clearly overmatched opponent?  No matter what, the eFG% numbers against LSU really concern me.  62% allowed?  78% allowed in the 2H? 

So there's one game against UW where Otule first went out, two cupcake games where MU crushed in one half and was weak in the second half, and LSU, which was bad by any measure. 
This Warrior fan is not as facile with statistics as you are, Mr. Sugar. (Thank you for your analysis. It is always great.) However, even though the statistics do not exist, it would appear, at a visceral level, that the Warriors during the Coach Williams era have had a tendency to "peter-out" (so to speak) in the second half during many a game. If this is true, and, as noted there is no proof, then the situation might be one of the hyper-active Coach Williams (of whom I am great fan) hyper-working his team to the point they often "poop-out" (so to speak) in the second half. Also, there appears to be a trend for the Warriors to "poop-out" in back-to-back games, and games separated by a short time gap. Think Norfolk State, Washington, and LSU.

[UticaBusBarn]

.



Opps ... let us try this again ...



This Warrior fan is not as facile with statistics as you are, Mr. Sugar. (Thank you for your analysis. It is always great.) However, even though the statistics do not exist, it would appear, at a visceral level, that the Warriors during the Coach Williams era have had a tendency to "peter-out" (so to speak) in the second half during many a game. If this is true, and, as noted there is no proof, then the situation might be one of the hyper-active Coach Williams (of whom I am great fan) hyper-working his team to the point they often "poop-out" (so to speak) in the second half. Also, there appears to be a trend for the Warriors to "poop-out" in back-to-back games, and games separated by a short time gap. Think Norfolk State, Washington, and LSU.
[/quote]

[NYWarrior]

This Warrior fan is not as facile with statistics as you are, Mr. Sugar. (Thank you for your analysis. It is always great.) However, even though the statistics do not exist, it would appear, at a visceral level, that the Warriors during the Coach Williams era have had a tendency to "peter-out" (so to speak) in the second half during many a game. If this is true, and, as noted there is no proof, then the situation might be one of the hyper-active Coach Williams (of whom I am great fan) hyper-working his team to the point they often "poop-out" (so to speak) in the second half. Also, there appears to be a trend for the Warriors to "poop-out" in back-to-back games, and games separated by a short time gap. Think Norfolk State, Washington, and LSU.

An abbreviated look at MU in back to back scenarios is here

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/11/16-marquette-wins-for-only-3rd-time.htm

[MuMark]

Our defense is regressing. Now down to 32 in adjusted efficiency on Pomeroy.

I think Otule makes a big difference but I also think the early season results might have been a bit of a fluke.

I'm never sold on predicting a seasons worth of stats based on 9 or 10 games mostly played against inferior opponents.



My guess is our D will turn out to be similar to last year when all is said and done.

[bilsu]

Mayo, being inexperienced, just did not realized they were suckering him into driving. They took away the outside shot and set him up to take the charge. He had two maybe three charges which count as turnovers. LSU had a well designed game plan, but they still would of lost if they had not hit those threes.

[Dr. Blackheart]

And Junior should never take ten shots in a game.  As an aside, our starting PG's turnover rate is 24%.

His assist rate is sky high, but yeah that TO rate is kind of disturbing.  One thing I really wanted to see this offseason was Cadougan tightening up his dribble, but that didn't happen.  It should never come above your waist at any position, but that is a cardinal sin as a PG.  DJames had the ball on a string his senior year.

I don't want to let this pass on Junior (as stats have to be taken in context) and who I don't think had a particularly good game vs. LSU.  First, Junior is 22nd in the BE with this turnover rate...hardly "sky high" for a PG, but no where near Ashton Gibbs good either.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/turnover_pct?conf=big-east&games=1

Second, Junior is 4th in the BE is assist percent with 37.4%, with a A:TO ratio of 2.6 (good for 5th), where Gibbs is at a 1.9.  Junior is doing what he does best:  setting up our shooters at a Travis Diener junior year level.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/assist_pct?season=2011-2012&conf=big-east

[MattyWarrior]

That was an awful effort, except for Jae! Was he hustling or what. It always seems going into a game like this we hear
they can't shoot, they finished second last in there conference last year and we should win easy. No easy with this team
from here on out. Our half court offense sucks. Lsu was coached up and we mailed it in. JWill needs to get aggresive!

[ATL MU Warrior]

I don't want to let this pass on Junior (as stats have to be taken in context) and who I don't think had a particularly good game vs. LSU.  First, Junior is 22nd in the BE with this turnover rate...hardly "sky high" for a PG, but no where near Ashton Gibbs good either.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/turnover_pct?conf=big-east&games=1

Second, Junior is 4th in the BE is assist percent with 37.4%, with a A:TO ratio of 2.6 (good for 5th), where Gibbs is at a 1.9.  Junior is doing what he does best:  setting up our shooters at a Travis Diener junior year level.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/assist_pct?season=2011-2012&conf=big-east

Thank you for this...but he went 0-1 from the line last night so he sucks.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I don't want to let this pass on Junior (as stats have to be taken in context) and who I don't think had a particularly good game vs. LSU.  First, Junior is 22nd in the BE with this turnover rate...hardly "sky high" for a PG, but no where near Ashton Gibbs good either.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/turnover_pct?conf=big-east&games=1

Second, Junior is 4th in the BE is assist percent with 37.4%, with a A:TO ratio of 2.6 (good for 5th), where Gibbs is at a 1.9.  Junior is doing what he does best:  setting up our shooters at a Travis Diener junior year level.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/assist_pct?season=2011-2012&conf=big-east

First, I said his assist rate is sky high, not his turnover rate.  That may have been a misread on your part, as we are in total and complete agreement there.

Second, I like Junior and am one of the most positive posters on this board.  I think he's an extremely creative passer, and when he plays like he did against WVU in the BEast tourney last year, he can single-handedly win games.  I liked that he was on the attack last night.  I like that he seems to have worked on his mid-range game in the off season and that he shoots it more confidently this year.  If he could tighten up his ball handling and hit his jumper a bit more consistently, he'd pretty much be my ideal offensive point guard.  That's all I was saying.

[Boone]

ATL MU Warrior, tell me where I said JR sucks. He didn't play well last nite. Don't know why that's so hard for you to understand.

[Jay Bee]

Thank you for this...but he went 0-1 from the line last night so he sucks.

Normally I don't mind a missed free throw much, but that attempt was brutal.  Gasp-inducing. 

[ATL MU Warrior]

ATL MU Warrior, Tell me where I said JR sucks. He didn't play well last nite. Don't know why that's so hard for you to understand.

You didn't say he sucks.  You said:

Agree w/nyg on the need for a PG. JR may have had only 2 TOs last nite, but his poor judgment (no way he should be taking 10 shots in a game), offensive ineptitude and defensive woes are painful to watch.

Maybe my mistake, but that translates to something pretty close to "he sucks" to me.

[Dr. Blackheart]

First, I said his assist rate is sky high, not his turnover rate.  That may have been a misread on your part, as we are in total and complete agreement there.

Second, I like Junior and am one of the most positive posters on this board.  I think he's an extremely creative passer, and when he plays like he did against WVU in the BEast tourney last year, he can single-handedly win games.  I liked that he was on the attack last night.  I like that he seems to have worked on his mid-range game in the off season and that he shoots it more confidently this year.  If he could tighten up his ball handling and hit his jumper a bit more consistently, he'd pretty much be my ideal offensive point guard.  That's all I was saying.

Sorry...I was confused as that ran into your comment from Henry  where you said say that his turnover rate was kind of distrubing.  My larger point is that Gibbs has a low turnover rate because he shoots first and assists later.  Last night, Junior shot first and had one assist.  That isn't what he does well. When he asists, MU wins.

[MattyWarrior]

They had three turkeys against us in a row.

[brewcity77]

I did this in another thread but will repost here.
====
There is not a large enough sample size for significance.  However, I've been struggling with it as well, and just haven't had enough time to do a deep dive.   But here's the current level of thinking.

Simple Averages (pre vs post)

Offense
Efficiency (1.16 vs 1.07)
eFG% (56.5% vs 50%)

Defense
Efficiency (0.82 vs 0.97)
eFG% (40.9% vs 51.6%)

It's easy enough to just run an average and just say "hey, our offense and defense are both worse with Otule out".  One could say "boom - roasted"...  Otule made all the difference.   But there's not enough data to answer that definitively.

Washington was a poor game, but also the injury happened mid-game.  Looking a little bit deeper, the question for me was the cupcake games.  In the first half of both games, MU was really good defensively.  It was the second half where the defense suffered.  Was that bad defense, or was it just letting off the gas against a clearly overmatched opponent?  No matter what, the eFG% numbers against LSU really concern me.  62% allowed?  78% allowed in the 2H? 

So there's one game against UW where Otule first went out, two cupcake games where MU crushed in one half and was weak in the second half, and LSU, which was bad by any measure.

Obviously a sample size of 10 games, or even 7, would be more valuable, but those are pretty glaring defenses. The first games included games against an Ole Miss team that looks at least as good as LSU, a Wisconsin team that is one of the best in the nation, and a couple against a Norfolk State team that looks better than advertised, certainly as good as either Green Bay or Northern Colorado.

And while the sample size is small, the disparity in data is not. And eFG% that would be good enough for 8th in the country versus one that is good enough for 263rd. A ppp rating good enough for 2nd versus one that is good enough for 114th.

Our defensive rating has fallen after every game since the Otule injury. We were 13th before he went down, then 15th, 18th, 21st, and now 31st. Would we have dropped regardless? Maybe. But I highly doubt that against the opposition we played we would have fallen so far so fast.

Washington tortured us inside with their length and on the boards. Alec Brown had career highs in points and rebounds for Green Bay. LSU destroyed us inside. There is no way any of those things are such glaring deficits with Otule playing 22-25 minutes. And I don't think there's any way LSU wins that game if Otule is in there.

If absolutely nothing else, look at the difference of how we played Wisconsin and Ole Miss versus how we played Washington and LSU, because that's more indicative of the level of opposition we'll be seeing on a regular basis starting a week from Thursday. We desperately need CO back. We're a completely different team without him.

[Henry Sugar]

I don't want to let this pass on Junior (as stats have to be taken in context) and who I don't think had a particularly good game vs. LSU.  First, Junior is 22nd in the BE with this turnover rate...hardly "sky high" for a PG, but no where near Ashton Gibbs good either.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/turnover_pct?conf=big-east&games=1

Second, Junior is 4th in the BE is assist percent with 37.4%, with a A:TO ratio of 2.6 (good for 5th), where Gibbs is at a 1.9.  Junior is doing what he does best:  setting up our shooters at a Travis Diener junior year level.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/assist_pct?season=2011-2012&conf=big-east

A few points, Doc

According to that statsheet link you included, Junior is the 22nd worst player in the BE at protecting the ball.  He's not in the top 50 or top 75 best at protecting the ball.  There are 80 starting players in the BE.  yay?

In addition, here were the turnover rates for our PGs prior to Junior
2010 - Acker (15.4%)
2009-2006 - James (15.9%, 16.5%, 17.4%, 18.0%)
2005 - Diener (15.6%)

In the context of the six years (at least - that's as far back as Pomeroy's data goes) prior to Junior, our PG was turning the ball over significantly less.

Sorry...I was confused as that ran into your comment from Henry  where you said say that his turnover rate was kind of distrubing.  My larger point is that Gibbs has a low turnover rate because he shoots first and assists later.  Last night, Junior shot first and had one assist.  That isn't what he does well. When he asists, MU wins.

I comprehend your larger point that Junior shoots less than other players and therefore his turnover rate will be inflated because of the limited possessions.  However, I remain unconvinced of the value for assist to turnover rate.  I'm also unconvinced that when Junior assists, MU wins.  You got any data to back that up?

[Henry Sugar]

And while the sample size is small, the disparity in data is not. And eFG% that would be good enough for 8th in the country versus one that is good enough for 263rd. A ppp rating good enough for 2nd versus one that is good enough for 114th.

Your hypothesis that the absence of Otule is the cause of the disparity may be correct.  However, there is not enough data to prove or disprove your belief.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Sugar, I love data too, but I've also watched every game and Otule is what we're missing defensively.  He brings something to the table that no one else on the team can replace.

[Henry Sugar]

Sugar, I love data too, but I've also watched every game and Otule is what we're missing defensively.  He brings something to the table that no one else on the team can replace.

Your hypothesis that the absence of Otule is the cause of the disparity may be correct.  However, there is not enough data to prove or disprove your belief.

[MerrittsMustache]

A few points, Doc

According to that statsheet link you included, Junior is the 22nd worst player in the BE at protecting the ball.  He's not in the top 50 or top 75 best at protecting the ball.  There are 80 starting players in the BE.  yay?

In addition, here were the turnover rates for our PGs prior to Junior
2010 - Acker (15.4%)
2009-2006 - James (15.9%, 16.5%, 17.4%, 18.0%)
2005 - Diener (15.6%)

In the context of the six years (at least - that's as far back as Pomeroy's data goes) prior to Junior, our PG was turning the ball over significantly less.

I comprehend your larger point that Junior shoots less than other players and therefore his turnover rate will be inflated because of the limited possessions.  However, I remain unconvinced of the value for assist to turnover rate.  I'm also unconvinced that when Junior assists, MU wins.  You got any data to back that up?

I've been trying to figure Junior's game out this season and I've decided that his impact on a game reminds me of a scorer who can get hot, pour in points and completely take over a game, but who can also go cold, force shots and kill his team. The obvious difference is that Junior takes over with drives and kicks as opposed to scoring but when Junior is "on," he can take control and it's incredibly tough to defend MU. When he's "off," things can go downhill quickly and he typically finds himself on the bench for extended periods of time.

[ATL MU Warrior]

I've been trying to figure Junior's game out this season and I've decided that his impact on a game reminds me of a scorer who can get hot, pour in points and completely take over a game, but who can also go cold, force shots and kill his team. The obvious difference is that Junior takes over with drives and kicks as opposed to scoring but when Junior is "on," he can take control and it's incredibly tough to defend MU. When he's "off," things can go downhill quickly and he typically finds himself on the bench for extended periods of time.

I agree with this 100% 

[UticaBusBarn]

I've been trying to figure Junior's game out this season and I've decided that his impact on a game reminds me of a scorer who can get hot, pour in points and completely take over a game, but who can also go cold, force shots and kill his team. The obvious difference is that Junior takes over with drives and kicks as opposed to scoring but when Junior is "on," he can take control and it's incredibly tough to defend MU. When he's "off," things can go downhill quickly and he typically finds himself on the bench for extended periods of time.

BINGO! It is the guards that make a team. Think about the Warriors midget team two years ago. Small but they had great guard play, including a sophomore (DJDO) who hit close to 50 percent of his three point attempts and seemingly turned the ball over less. The loss to LSU was a result of LSU guards playing better than Warrior guards. Sorry to be a bit of broken record, but, "if you ain't got guards, you ain't got s**t."

[brewcity77]

Your hypothesis that the absence of Otule is the cause of the disparity may be correct.  However, there is not enough data to prove or disprove your belief.

Based on the length of the season, what would be a good sample size? Seems like 36.3% of the season is a fair sample size to evaluate.

[Henry Sugar]

Based on the length of the season, what would be a good sample size? Seems like 36.3% of the season is a fair sample size to evaluate.

A few more games should tell us if there is a statistically significant difference pre and post-Otule.  At least at the 95% confidence level. 

The problem right now is that we have only eleven games... seven with Otule and four without.  Hard to get a good enough sample size.

[Dr. Blackheart]

My response to the Junior discussion from Suge:  The words "sky high" and "disturbing" were used to describe Junior's value (perceived or otherwise).  I provided the the Statsheet data to show that: 1) neither described his turnover rate I felt and 2) that turnover stats need to be taken in context of what Junior provides to the offense--namely assists.

So, in MU wins vs. losses over the past two seasons (where Junior was at/near full strength). 

• His assists were 80% higher on average in the wins
• His turnovers averaged only 30% higher in wins
• His A:TO rate was 39% better as a result
• MU's ORating was 113.3 vs. 104.8, although pace was about the same
• He averaged 4.5 points in losses and 4.7 in wins
• He had 16 win games with 5 or more assists

When Junior assists, paint touches go up, efficiency goes up, winning percentage goes up.  Scoring is a plus but not a necessity.  Against LSU, Junior had one assist and his highest shot total in a game ever.

[Dr. Blackheart]

A few points, Doc

In addition, here were the turnover rates for our PGs prior to Junior
2010 - Acker (15.4%)
2009-2006 - James (15.9%, 16.5%, 17.4%, 18.0%)
2005 - Diener (15.6%)

In the context of the six years (at least - that's as far back as Pomeroy's data goes) prior to Junior, our PG was turning the ball over significantly less.

Junior year assist statistics compared to the turnovers % above to add to this further:

JC:  6.0 dimes/game, assist % of 37.3%, A:TO ratio of 2.6
DJ:  4.4, 28.3%, 2.1
Mo:  1.8 (unfair since DJ got the minutes) but 19.0% on assist % and 2.4 on ratio
TD:  6.0, 41.7%, 2.5

[Lennys Tap]

Normally I don't mind a missed free throw much, but that attempt was brutal.  Gasp-inducing. 

A shank. The equivalent of being wide right on a PAT.