Bubble Watch 2018

[Oldgym]

ND leads Pitt by 3 with just over a minute.

[PGsHeroes32]

From the "we hate ND" perspective yes, from the committee perspective I totally disagree. With Bonzie back I think they have a clear cut case for inclusion.

They lost to Indiana and ball state while getting waxed by MSU

No. Not a worthy inclusion when you view their resume.

[Tha Hound]

They are going to narrowly escape a loss to an 0-18 Pitt team. ND is trash.

[Fred Garvin]

They dont look very good today,but they'll beat Pitt

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

They lost to Indiana and ball state while getting waxed by MSU

No. Not a worthy inclusion when you view their resume.

Lost to Indiana and Ball State WITH Colson.

I think it would be an absolute joke in ND made the tourney unless they rattle off several huge wins in the ACCT.

[PGsHeroes32]

Lost to Indiana and Ball State WITH Colson.

I think it would be an absolute joke in ND made the tourney unless they rattle off several huge wins in the ACCT.

Yup that’s what I meant.

Really hope if they end up beating VT that isn’t viewed as enough.

Would be nuts

[Its DJOver]

ND may get a bid, but based our respective resumes today, they should not get a bid before us, which is all I care about.  If they play like they did today against VT tomorrow they will lose and their bubble will likely pop.

They have to fill the field, as long as we get in, I don't care who gets in ahead or behind us.  That being said, ND sucks.

[WhiteTrash]

From the "we hate ND" perspective yes, from the committee perspective I totally disagree. With Bonzie back I think they have a clear cut case for inclusion.

Pretty sure injuries are not considered by the selection committee. Too bad for ND because their current resume does not warrant inclusion.

[TallTitan34]

I wanted Pitt to win, but I love that they were 0-19 in ACC play since them and Syracuse destroyed the old Big East.

[skianth16]

PITT is so bad.  You almost feel bad for those guys.

[mu03eng]

Pretty sure injuries are not considered by the selection committee. Too bad for ND because their current resume does not warrant inclusion.

They 100% do consider it

[MomofMUltiples]

Everyone makes good points on how analytical this process is, and how the Committee considers one thing but not other things, but also remember that the Committee is made up of humans, all of whom are capable (some might even say culpable) of inserting bias into their lists.  This will mostly come into play on the bubble.  ND is a good example - lots of folks thinking, "well they weren't very good without Colton but now Colton is back, lots of ND fans travel for the team," etc.  Another good example is Louisville - what a great story to tell, losing Bowen and Coach Pitino and still toughing it out to make the tourney.  St. Mary's - can't just let the major conference teams dominate, they beat Gonzaga, etc. etc.  This is why we think results are nonsensical at times. 

What stories does Marquette have that could subtly sway committee members' minds when they are making decisions on the bubble?  Markus Howard's 52 point game? Team 3 point percentage (4th) or free throw percentage (3rd)?  Overall shooting; "The big three?"  None of these are as big as some of the personal stories above, but what sets us apart from the other bubble teams that isn't metric-driven?

[tower912]

At least they hired a guy with high major experience instead of going with a top assistant.   

[Its DJOver]

Everyone makes good points on how analytical this process is, and how the Committee considers one thing but not other things, but also remember that the Committee is made up of humans, all of whom are capable (some might even say culpable) of inserting bias into their lists.  This will mostly come into play on the bubble.  ND is a good example - lots of folks thinking, "well they weren't very good without Colton but now Colton is back, lots of ND fans travel for the team," etc.  Another good example is Louisville - what a great story to tell, losing Bowen and Coach Pitino and still toughing it out to make the tourney.  St. Mary's - can't just let the major conference teams dominate, they beat Gonzaga, etc. etc.  This is why we think results are nonsensical at times. 

What stories does Marquette have that could subtly sway committee members' minds when they are making decisions on the bubble?  Markus Howard's 52 point game? Team 3 point percentage (4th) or free throw percentage (3rd)?  Overall shooting; "The big three?"  None of these are as big as some of the personal stories above, but what sets us apart from the other bubble teams that isn't metric-driven?

How about excitement. More people are gonna tune into a game they don't care about if it's in the 90s and both teams have players going off for 30+. That's a lot more likely with us (whether you consider thay good or bad) than with other teams mentioned. Offense draws the casual fan, see the NBA, our offense coupled with our defense will make games a lot more entertaining to random people tuning in.

[Windyplayer]

Everyone makes good points on how analytical this process is, and how the Committee considers one thing but not other things, but also remember that the Committee is made up of humans, all of whom are capable (some might even say culpable) of inserting bias into their lists.  This will mostly come into play on the bubble.  ND is a good example - lots of folks thinking, "well they weren't very good without Colton but now Colton is back, lots of ND fans travel for the team," etc.  Another good example is Louisville - what a great story to tell, losing Bowen and Coach Pitino and still toughing it out to make the tourney.  St. Mary's - can't just let the major conference teams dominate, they beat Gonzaga, etc. etc.  This is why we think results are nonsensical at times. 

What stories does Marquette have that could subtly sway committee members' minds when they are making decisions on the bubble?  Markus Howard's 52 point game? Team 3 point percentage (4th) or free throw percentage (3rd)?  Overall shooting; "The big three?"  None of these are as big as some of the personal stories above, but what sets us apart from the other bubble teams that isn't metric-driven?

Eh, no one is looking for a redemption story from Louisville. Let’s give it 5 years.

[BM1090]

So unimpressed by the ACC today. Yes, I know it's the bottom teams.

[mubb3434]

So unimpressed by the ACC today. Yes, I know it's the bottom teams.

Syracuse is taking it to Wake Forest right now, but man Wake Forest looks bad. I think I’d take DePaul against them head to head.

[brewcity77]

Looks like Wake rallied to get within 6 at the half. Fingers crossed.

[GoldenZebra]

Despite what other teams do, I dont think MU gets in without winning 2 in BET. Need that signature win and I think we need 20 wins minimum.

[Its DJOver]

Despite what other teams do, I dont think MU gets in without winning 2 in BET. Need that signature win and I think we need 20 wins minimum.

This is not true. Other teams results have a very large influence on our tournament chances.  That's why we have a bubble watch, and paint touches has a daily bubble update.

[muguru]

This is not true. Other teams results have a very large influence on our tournament chances.  That's why we have a bubble watch, and paint touches has a daily bubble update.

Look, I want to be in the tournament as much or more than anyone, but...It doesn't make me feel very good that we are rooting for other teams to lose so MU can essentially back their way in...they had plenty of chances to earn their way in, and didn't do it, so if they don't end up getting in, It's not because so and so kept them out, it's because they kept themselves out, by not beating DePaul a week and a half ago..further I can't wait to get back to the days where we don't even have to worry about the bubble and when the season starts only have to worry about seeding.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Look, I want to be in the tournament as much or more than anyone, but...It doesn't make me feel very good that we are rooting for other teams to lose so MU can essentially back their way in...they had plenty of chances to earn their way in, and didn't do it, so if they don't end up getting in, It's not because so and so kept them out, it's because they kept themselves out, by not beating DePaul a week and a half ago..further I can't wait to get back to the days where we don't even have to worry about the bubble and when the season starts only have to worry about seeding.

Maybe so....but it is a historically strong bubble this year. As dance card pointed out, a team with Marquette's resume would have gotten into a 100% of tournaments since the field expanded to 68. Marquette has done enough to get into the tournament in any other year. So a year ago, two years ago, three years ago woe wouldn't have been having a bubble conversation, we'd be having a seeding conversation.

So no, I don't think we are "backing our way into the tournament." I think we are in a very competitive year and will have earned our bid if we make it.

[MuMark]

Or we could have beaten DePaul and lost at Providence in OT.......or beaten Providencecat home but lost to Georgetown on the road......


We are right where we were supposed to be this season......young team that was picked to be on the bubble and finish 7th in the league......that's where we ended up.

Hopefully we make it in......but as you said if we don't it won't be an injustice.

Lots or worthy teams this season.......some are going to be left out.

[muguru]

Maybe so....but it is a historically strong bubble this year. As dance card pointed out, a team with Marquette's resume would have gotten into a 100% of tournaments since the field expanded to 68. Marquette has done enough to get into the tournament in any other year. So a year ago, two years ago, three years ago woe wouldn't have been having a bubble conversation, we'd be having a seeding conversation.

So no, I don't think we are "backing our way into the tournament." I think we are in a very competitive year and will have earned our bid if we make it.

But that's my point...even if this were two or three years ago, and their resume was good enough, it still wouldn't likely be with MUCH breathing room...granted maybe not right on the bubble, but not a particularly high seed either. It'd be nice to get back to the days when they were in when the season started, it was just a matter of playing the year for seeding. As far as earning their bid...maybe, but they COULD have and SHOULD have earned it weeks ago already..it shouldn't be coming down to the BET to determine whether or not they will get in(I hope they do). Beat Providence at home weeks ago...they are in, beat DePaul a week and a half ago...they are in. Those weren't/shouldn't have been daunting tasks, but it turns out they were.

[Nukem2]

But that's my point...even if this were two or three years ago, and their resume was good enough, it still wouldn't likely be with MUCH breathing room...granted maybe not right on the bubble, but not a particularly high seed either. It'd be nice to get back to the days when they were in when the season started, it was just a matter of playing the year for seeding. As far as earning their bid...maybe, but they COULD have and SHOULD have earned it weeks ago already..it shouldn't be coming down to the BET to determine whether or not they will get in(I hope they do). Beat Providence at home weeks ago...they are in, beat DePaul a week and a half ago...they are in. Those weren't/shouldn't have been daunting tasks, but it turns out they were.

but beating Seton Hall and Creighton twice each was not really in the cards either...just what it is...