Bubble Watch 2018

[auburnmarquette]

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/march-madness-2018-ncaa-basketball-tournament-bracket-rankings-bubble-kansas-duke-unc-kentucky-michigan-state/pfc27912bwt5105i2ezbv2g25

No. 11 seeds: UCLA, Providence, USC, Saint Mary's, Oklahoma State, Syracuse

UCLA (20-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 49/38/36. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 5-1. vs. Q3/4: 12-2
Providence (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 71/43/39. vs. Q1: 3-8. vs. Q2: 5-1. vs. Q3/4: 11-3
*USC (21-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 46/34/35. vs. Q1: 4-6. vs. Q2: 5-3. vs. Q3/4: 12-1
*Saint Mary's (28-4): Pom/RPI/KPI: 25/36/55. vs. Q1: 1-1. vs. Q2: 2-1. vs. Q3/4: 25-2
*Oklahoma State (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 57/88/52. vs. Q1: 5-10. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 9-0
*Syracuse (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 51/40/41. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 3-3. vs. Q3/4: 13-2
Rest of the bracket:
(* First Four teams)

NCAA Tournament bubble teams
First four out

Marquette (18-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 50/57/48. vs. Q1: 4-7. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 10-2
Baylor (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 33/61/56. vs. Q1: 4-10. vs. Q2: 3-3. vs. Q3/4: 10-0
Notre Dame (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 31/66/62. vs. Q1: 2-8. vs. Q2: 4-2. vs. Q3/4: 11-3
Alabama (17-14): Pom/RPI/KPI: 53/59/30. vs. Q1: 5-6. vs. Q2: 4-6. vs. Q3/4: 8-2
Still in the conversation …

Louisville (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 34/46/57. vs. Q1: 3-10. vs. Q2: 1-2. vs. Q3/4: 15-0
Washington (20-11): Pom/RPI/KPI: 97/63/51. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 2-3. vs. Q3/4: 15-1
Utah (19-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 62/47/44. vs. Q1: 3-5. vs. Q2: 4-4. vs. Q3/4: 12-1
Penn State (21-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 30/76/67. vs. Q1: 3-8. vs. Q2: 2-2. vs. Q3/4: 16-3
Boise State (23-7): Pom/RPI/KPI: 52/42/59. vs. Q1: 2-2. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 16-2
Nebraska (22-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 56/64/64. vs. Q1: 1-6. vs. Q2: 2-3. vs. Q3/4: 19-1
READ THIS
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When did your college hoops team last win a national title?
BILL BENDER
 pichttp://images.performgroup.com/di/library/sporting_news/3b/e/cal-henson-williams-ftr-gettyjpg_1qum8frwgef9s1kwmxb84b3985.jpg?t=-1031406973&w=178
33 best teams that didn't win the NCAA Tournament

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Crazy the Pac 12 couldn't get their tournament on national TV.  Utah vs. Oregon/WSU will be on FS1. One semifinal will be on FS1 and the final will be on FS1. The other 8 games will be on the pac 12 network

My old man is Arizona alum.  I grew up watching the Cats, but wasn't much of a passionate hoops fan until college.

He fu**ing hates the P12 Network. Literally cannot get in the midwest through any major television provider.  He eventually caved out of frustration and got slingtv to watch the games.  That network is joke.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Oklahoma State in? You have got to be kidding me! Fringe bubble at best.

[BM1090]

My old man is Arizona alum.  I grew up watching the Cats, but wasn't much of a passionate hoops fan until college.

He fu**ing hates the P12 Network. Literally cannot get in the midwest through any major television provider.  He eventually caved out of frustration and got slingtv to watch the games.  That network is joke.

It's nuts. I'm working from home on Friday and was checking to see which games I'd be able to watch. Checked all the major conference tournament TV. We really are lucky with the Big East.

[TheREALwrk]

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/march-madness-2018-ncaa-basketball-tournament-bracket-rankings-bubble-kansas-duke-unc-kentucky-michigan-state/pfc27912bwt5105i2ezbv2g25

No. 11 seeds: UCLA, Providence, USC, Saint Mary's, Oklahoma State, Syracuse

UCLA (20-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 49/38/36. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 5-1. vs. Q3/4: 12-2
Providence (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 71/43/39. vs. Q1: 3-8. vs. Q2: 5-1. vs. Q3/4: 11-3
*USC (21-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 46/34/35. vs. Q1: 4-6. vs. Q2: 5-3. vs. Q3/4: 12-1
*Saint Mary's (28-4): Pom/RPI/KPI: 25/36/55. vs. Q1: 1-1. vs. Q2: 2-1. vs. Q3/4: 25-2
*Oklahoma State (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 57/88/52. vs. Q1: 5-10. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 9-0
*Syracuse (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 51/40/41. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 3-3. vs. Q3/4: 13-2
Rest of the bracket:
(* First Four teams)

NCAA Tournament bubble teams
First four out

Marquette (18-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 50/57/48. vs. Q1: 4-7. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 10-2
Baylor (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 33/61/56. vs. Q1: 4-10. vs. Q2: 3-3. vs. Q3/4: 10-0
Notre Dame (18-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 31/66/62. vs. Q1: 2-8. vs. Q2: 4-2. vs. Q3/4: 11-3
Alabama (17-14): Pom/RPI/KPI: 53/59/30. vs. Q1: 5-6. vs. Q2: 4-6. vs. Q3/4: 8-2
Still in the conversation …

Louisville (19-12): Pom/RPI/KPI: 34/46/57. vs. Q1: 3-10. vs. Q2: 1-2. vs. Q3/4: 15-0
Washington (20-11): Pom/RPI/KPI: 97/63/51. vs. Q1: 3-7. vs. Q2: 2-3. vs. Q3/4: 15-1
Utah (19-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 62/47/44. vs. Q1: 3-5. vs. Q2: 4-4. vs. Q3/4: 12-1
Penn State (21-13): Pom/RPI/KPI: 30/76/67. vs. Q1: 3-8. vs. Q2: 2-2. vs. Q3/4: 16-3
Boise State (23-7): Pom/RPI/KPI: 52/42/59. vs. Q1: 2-2. vs. Q2: 4-3. vs. Q3/4: 16-2
Nebraska (22-10): Pom/RPI/KPI: 56/64/64. vs. Q1: 1-6. vs. Q2: 2-3. vs. Q3/4: 19-1
READ THIS
 pichttp://images.performgroup.com/di/library/sporting_news/23/ea/joel-berry-net-north-carolina-getty-ftrjpg_5vamkeh4e216zyy5i1627d42.jpg?t=953719995&w=178
When did your college hoops team last win a national title?
BILL BENDER
 pichttp://images.performgroup.com/di/library/sporting_news/3b/e/cal-henson-williams-ftr-gettyjpg_1qum8frwgef9s1kwmxb84b3985.jpg?t=-1031406973&w=178
33 best teams that didn't win the NCAA Tournament

Hard to argue we should be in the tourney instead of any of those 11-seeds... eh?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Hard to argue we should be in the tourney instead of any of those 11-seeds... eh?

Disagree. I think you can make arguments against all of them. Some points better than others, but none of those teams resumes really differ much from Marquette.

[TallTitan34]

Hard to argue we should be in the tourney instead of any of those 11-seeds... eh?

I would place us ahead of Saint Mary's and Syracuse.

[Benny B]

Sorry if this has been mentioned or intimated, but frankly, I think MU's hopes comes down to how much weight the Committee gives to Road and Neutral W/L, especially against probable competition (i.e. QI teams)... this has been a metric cited up and down over the years, some years being the key metric that pushed a team into the tournament, while some years being seemingly overlooked.  The argument here - obviously - is that you want to put teams into the tourney who can compete/win, i.e. the committee may be reluctant to put a team with a stellar home - but dismal R/N - record into the tourney because, of course, nobody plays at home during the tourney.

Team	Road W/L	Neutral W/L	QI-Road	QI-Neutral
Marquette	5-5	2-1	3-3	0-1
OK State	3-7	2-1	2-7	1-1
Syracuse	4-6	1-1	2-3	0-1
USC	6-5	3-1	2-4	2-1
UCLA	3-7	3-1	2-5	1-1
SMC	10-1	2-2	1-0	0-0
Baylor	2-9	2-0	1-8	1-0
ND	5-7	2-1	1-6	1-0
Alabama	2-8	3-1	1-5	0-0
Providence	4-7	2-1	1-6	0-1
Lousiville	4-7	1-0	3-7	0-0
Washington	5-5	0-2	2-4	0-2
Utah	5-6	2-1	3-4	0-0

Only 3 of the teams above are at least .500 in road and neutral games, but one of those is SMC who is 10-1 and 2-2 (Road/Neutral) but against Quad 1 is only 1-0 and 0-0.  So that leaves USC and Marquette ahead of the rest of the group.  Going one step further in looking at overall R/N against Quad 1, you really start to see USC and Marquette standing out (4-5, 3-4, respectively) along with Utah (3-4).

If anything is going to tip the tourney scales in MU's favor, it's going to be that 3-3 road record against QI.  If the Committee wants to emphasize winning on the road, this is exactly what MU could hope for.

[IrwinFletcher]

One thing not included in the above info from AuburnMarquette is road wins.  MU is pretty solid in that category, with three of our Q1 wins on the road.

[auburnmarquette]

Oklahoma State in? You have got to be kidding me! Fringe bubble at best.

I think Sporting News is probably doing that wondering if it's all about Q1 wins this year, in light of how high Oklahoma was in the 16 teams released a few weeks ago.

Oklahoma State and Alabama are the only two teams on their list with more Q1 wins than Marquette (5 each), but with Alabama's typical stellar 2-8 road record and Oklahoma State being one better at 3-7 (thanks for compiling Benny) I agree.

[GoldenDieners32]

If OKSU, Saint Marys and Syracuse get in before mu then that will be BS

[wisblue]

Sorry if this has been mentioned or intimated, but frankly, I think MU's hopes comes down to how much weight the Committee gives to Road and Neutral W/L, especially against probable competition (i.e. QI teams)... this has been a metric cited up and down over the years, some years being the key metric that pushed a team into the tournament, while some years being seemingly overlooked.  The argument here - obviously - is that you want to put teams into the tourney who can compete/win, i.e. the committee may be reluctant to put a team with a stellar home - but dismal R/N - record into the tourney because, of course, nobody plays at home during the tourney.

Team	Road W/L	Neutral W/L	QI-Road	QI-Neutral
Marquette	5-5	2-1	3-3	0-1
OK State	3-7	2-1	2-7	1-1
Syracuse	4-6	1-1	2-3	0-1
USC	6-5	3-1	2-4	2-1
UCLA	3-7	3-1	2-5	1-1
SMC	10-1	2-2	1-0	0-0
Baylor	2-9	2-0	1-8	1-0
ND	5-7	2-1	1-6	1-0
Alabama	2-8	3-1	1-5	0-0
Providence	4-7	2-1	1-6	0-1
Lousiville	4-7	1-0	3-7	0-0
Washington	5-5	0-2	2-4	0-2
Utah	5-6	2-1	3-4	0-0

Only 3 of the teams above are at least .500 in road and neutral games, but one of those is SMC who is 10-1 and 2-2 (Road/Neutral) but against Quad 1 is only 1-0 and 0-0.  So that leaves USC and Marquette ahead of the rest of the group.  Going one step further in looking at overall R/N against Quad 1, you really start to see USC and Marquette standing out (4-5, 3-4, respectively) along with Utah (3-4).

If anything is going to tip the tourney scales in MU's favor, it's going to be that 3-3 road record against QI.  If the Committee wants to emphasize winning on the road, this is exactly what MU could hope for.

This is a great point. It highlights that pretty much everyone is guessing what the committee is going to value.

One of my concerns is that they will look at wins against top 10 or top 25 teams as a measure of teams who have shown they can beat the best. MU would not fare well if that is important.

[MU82]

If OKSU, Saint Marys and Syracuse get in before mu then that will be BS

Perhaps. But if we had beaten DePaul, we'd be in. Warriors will have nobody to blame but themselves. And I'm as big an optimist and Wojo fan as anybody on this board.

#nowhining

[Herman Cain]

The Johnnies are the ultimate bid thief.

[PGsHeroes32]

The Johnnies are the ultimate bid thief.

But way, way, way down on the realistic scale

[TallTitan34]

Would have it have been better if Markus sat against DePaul instead of coming in off the bench?  That way we could have played the injury card.

[cheebs09]

I caught some of Lunardi during the Gonzaga game. He said St. Mary’s has done enough to get in because they beat Gonzaga on the road. He has Gonzaga as a 5 seed. That doesn’t seem like enough to get in to me. I think Lunardi is going to be more off than usual. I feel like our resume is stronger and he has them as a 9 seed.

I didn’t hear him talk about the Big East. They covered every other conference so I may have missed him mentioning Marquette.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I caught some of Lunardi during the Gonzaga game. He said St. Mary’s has done enough to get in because they beat Gonzaga on the road. He has Gonzaga as a 5 seed. That doesn’t seem like enough to get in to me. I think Lunardi is going to be more off than usual. I feel like our resume is stronger and he has them as a 9 seed.

I didn’t hear him talk about the Big East. They covered every other conference so I may have missed him mentioning Marquette.

Lunardi almost never discuses the Big East on Espn telecasts.

[Babybluejeans]

I caught some of Lunardi during the Gonzaga game. He said St. Mary’s has done enough to get in because they beat Gonzaga on the road. He has Gonzaga as a 5 seed. That doesn’t seem like enough to get in to me. I think Lunardi is going to be more off than usual. I feel like our resume is stronger and he has them as a 9 seed.

I didn’t hear him talk about the Big East. They covered every other conference so I may have missed him mentioning Marquette.

St. Mary's is ranked #20 right now.  Really hard to believe a ranked team would get left out of the tournament because it lost in the conference semifinal to another totally decent team.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

St. Mary's is ranked #20 right now.  Really hard to believe a ranked team would get left out of the tournament because it lost in the conference semifinal to another totally decent team.

Rankings mean absolutely nothing.

[skianth16]

I caught some of Lunardi during the Gonzaga game. He said St. Mary’s has done enough to get in because they beat Gonzaga on the road. He has Gonzaga as a 5 seed. That doesn’t seem like enough to get in to me. I think Lunardi is going to be more off than usual. I feel like our resume is stronger and he has them as a 9 seed.

I didn’t hear him talk about the Big East. They covered every other conference so I may have missed him mentioning Marquette.

I ran across this link today when I was looking for some more information about selection committee criteria. I see both sides of the RPI coin, but I'm definitely happy with the help our schedule is giving us this year. Gonzaga, by all accounts, is a good team this year, but RPI and Kenpom are way off from one another, and that's killing their seeding. In addition, the fact that a team like 28-4 St. Mary's is still on the bubble would be infuriating as a fan. Sure, they could try to get a harder non-con, but it's not always the easiest thing to accomplish. 

https://www.slipperstillfits.com/2018/2/11/17001468/march-madness-bracket-rankings-gonzaga-bulldogs-snubbed

[skianth16]

Rankings mean absolutely nothing.

In the eyes of the committee, that's true, but they're still typically a pretty reliable gauge for understanding how good a team is. Right now, 3 of the projected 1 seeds are in the top 4 in the rankings, for example. Generally speaking, if a team is ranked in the top 25, they're considered a lock for the tournament. For a team to be ranked #20 in the AP or coaches' poll at year end and not make the tournament would be pretty shocking. Further, for a team to be a top 25 in KenPom and not make the tournament would have to be a historic snub.

[LoudMouth]

TCU was 29 in KenPom last year and didn’t make the tournament. And they play in a real basketball conference.
They went on to win the NIT...snubs happen

[Babybluejeans]

Rankings mean absolutely nothing.

It means 65 people who follow college basketball for a living think, on average, St. Mary's is one of the best 20 teams in the country. But you're right, the results of a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living doesn't illuminate anything about the upcoming decisions to be made by...a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living.

[LoudMouth]

It means 65 people who follow college basketball for a living think, on average, St. Mary's is one of the best 20 teams in the country. But you're right, the results of a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living doesn't illuminate anything about the upcoming decisions to be made by...a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living.

Those same geniuses gave Mount Saint Mary’s 4 votes this year thinking the team was St. Mary’s. Don’t give them that much credit. Realistically we can do that job pretty easily