Bubble Watch 2018

[robmufan]

I think this is where the double round-robin is just great! No unbalanced schedules. Sure, a team like Nebraska can only play who is on their schedule, but at least all the Big East teams know what the schedule is going to be year in and year out.

[PGsHeroes32]

Is a 17-14 8-10 Bama really ahead of us??

Joke

[BM1090]

Is a 17-14 8-10 Bama really ahead of us??

Joke

Yeah and they don't even have a ton of great wins. Not seeing that at all.

Best non con win is Rhode Island/Oklahoma. Losses to Arizona, UCF, Texas and Minnesota. Best wins in conference are Tennessee and Auburn at home. Beat Florida on the road.

[BM1090]

Honestly, evaluating our resume individually I think we should probably be in if we beat DePaul. Not sure that will be the case, but our resume is solid. One bad loss. One semi bad loss (hope Georgia can pull out a couple SEC tournament wins). 6 of 12 losses to top 12 RPI, with 4 of them being to top 3 RPI teams.

4-5 Q1 wins.

[skianth16]

Is a 17-14 8-10 Bama really ahead of us??

Joke

Those 4 top 25 wins are really carrying them right now

[PGsHeroes32]

Those 4 top 25 wins are really carrying them right now

Hopefully A&M rolls them

Should eliminate any further discussion on them

[BM1090]

Asked Dave Ommen (bracketville) about why he seemed higher on MU than others . This is his reply.

Bracketville
‏@BracketguyDave

Not sure why; my take on profile, I guess compared to others around them.  Beating DePaul a must. After that, without beating Nova, it all depends on what happens around them. Could end up a little short or just inside, IMO.

So pretty much what we're all saying here. 0-1, out. 1-1, maybe. 2 or more wins, in.

[Windyplayer]

Asked Dave Ommen (bracketville) about why he seemed higher on MU than others . This is his reply.

Bracketville
‏@BracketguyDave

Not sure why; my take on profile, I guess compared to others around them.  Beating DePaul a must. After that, without beating Nova, it all depends on what happens around them. Could end up a little short or just inside, IMO.

So pretty much what we're all saying here. 0-1, out. 1-1, maybe. 2 or more wins, in.

How many times have we all been on Scoop over the last few days hoping that a national pundit says otherwise, a la, we are safe after a W over DePaul. Alas, it's not to be.

[LoudMouth]

Hoping to get Alabama crushed by TAMU and South Carolina to beat Ole Miss to give Bama a third tier 3 loss.
Every little bit helps

[goldeneagle91114]

Here's my confusion with Lunardi - As of Saturday night,before UCLA beat USC, He had Marquette as the first team listed under the last 4 out group. We had a win that afternoon over a quality CU team. UCLA beats another bubble team. and now both are ahead of MU. how does this make any sense?

[BM1090]

Here's my confusion with Lunardi - As of Saturday night,before UCLA beat USC, He had Marquette as the first team listed under the last 4 out group. We had a win that afternoon over a quality CU team. UCLA beats another bubble team. and now both are ahead of MU. how does this make any sense?

MU's win was already included. UCLA's was not.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Here's my confusion with Lunardi - As of Saturday night,before UCLA beat USC, He had Marquette as the first team listed under the last 4 out group. We had a win that afternoon over a quality CU team. UCLA beats another bubble team. and now both are ahead of MU. how does this make any sense?

He personally must like USC's resume more than MUs and felt he needed to boost UCLA over USC, so had to jump both USC and MU.  Not agreeing with him, but I assume that is his logic.

[goldeneagle91114]

MU's win was already included. UCLA's was not.

So is it just the fact that they have an additional win that puts them in?

[BM1090]

So is it just the fact that they have an additional win that puts them in?

Apparently. I don't necessarily agree with it. I think we have a better resume than Bama, Baylor, Louisville, and USC (without Boatwright)

[Loose Cannon]

How many times have we all been on Scoop over the last few days hoping that a national pundit says otherwise, a la, we are safe after a W over DePaul. Alas, it's not to be.

Yep, I'm going with Forest Gump and his Box of Chocolates.

[copious1218]

Somewhere in this thread (or perhaps another one) was a posting about which conferences could have a potential "bid thief".  Aside from a lower seed winning one of the big six conferences, can anyone identify the conferences that we should watch for "bid thieves" or point me to the post that already has this information? (I'm assuming MWC, WCC, A10, AAC). 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Somewhere in this thread (or perhaps another one) was a posting about which conferences could have a potential "bid thief".  Aside from a lower seed winning one of the big six conferences, can anyone identify the conferences that we should watch for "bid thieves" or point me to the post that already has this information? (I'm assuming MWC, WCC, A10, AAC).

You got the main ones.

MWC: Anybody but Nevada
WCC: Anybody but gonzaga/St. Mary's
A10: Anybody but Rhode Island/Saint Bonaventure
AAC: Anybody but Cinci/Wichita/Houston

You could maybe add:

CUSA: Anybody but Middle Tennessee State

Personally,  I don't see the Blue Raiders getting an at large bid would rather not test that theory.

MWC is the one I'm most worried about. All the others have at least one team thats head and shoulders above the rest.

[WarriorInNYC]

You got the main ones.

MWC: Anybody but Nevada
WCC: Anybody but gonzaga/St. Mary's
A10: Anybody but Rhode Island/Saint Bonaventure
AAC: Anybody but Cinci/Wichita/Houston

You could maybe add:

CUSA: Anybody but Middle Tennessee State

Personally,  I don't see the Blue Raiders getting an at large bid would rather not test that theory.

MWC is the one I'm most worried about. All the others have at least one team thats head and shoulders above the rest.

Yup, most worried about MWC and then A10.

WCC semis are tonight, Gonzaga facing San Francisco followed by St. Mary's facing BYU.  That one could be wrapped up if both Gonzaga and St. Mary's pick up wins.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yup, most worried about MWC and then A10.

WCC semis are tonight, Gonzaga facing San Francisco followed by St. Mary's facing BYU.  That one could be wrapped up if both Gonzaga and St. Mary's pick up wins.

I think if St. Mary's loses tonight, they should be nervous.  Not sure if that is the preferred route for MU, but a Gonzaga-St. Mary's final pretty much guarantees 2 bids from WCC.  A Gonzaga-BYU means somewhere between 1-3 bids.  I'll go with the latter, because I don't think the Zags are going to lose to BYU if BYU knocked off St. Mary's.

St. Mary's is an interesting case.  Assuming they don't get the AQ, they'll have just 5 losses.  But they've beaten the Zags once and that is their only win of substance.  Losses to Washington State and San Fran.  2nd and third best wins over New Mexico State and BYU.  I don't know...they could be left out if they lose tonight. They haven't played anybody.

[copious1218]

You got the main ones.

MWC: Anybody but Nevada
WCC: Anybody but gonzaga/St. Mary's
A10: Anybody but Rhode Island/Saint Bonaventure
AAC: Anybody but Cinci/Wichita/Houston

You could maybe add:

CUSA: Anybody but Middle Tennessee State

Personally,  I don't see the Blue Raiders getting an at large bid would rather not test that theory.

MWC is the one I'm most worried about. All the others have at least one team thats head and shoulders above the rest.

Thanks TAMU. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I just thought of this but you could also add the PAC 12.

They have 5 bubble teams but only 1 lock. If anyone but Arizona wins the PAC 12, they could be considered a bid thef.

Also,  with none of the bubble teams playing each other in the first round,  there is a legitimate path to the PAC 12 being a 1 bid league. It's unlikely and would require Oregon state to win two games... But it's possible

[copious1218]

I just thought of this but you could also add the PAC 12.

They have 5 bubble teams but only 1 lock. If anyone but Arizona wins the PAC 12, they could be considered a bid thef.

Also,  with none of the bubble teams playing each other in the first round,  there is a legitimate path to the PAC 12 being a 1 bid league. It's unlikely and would require Oregon state to win two games... But it's possible

I counted them in the big six comment.  Having said that, I find it hard to believe they won't get at least 2 teams in (and more likely 3-4).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I counted them in the big six comment.  Having said that, I find it hard to believe they won't get at least 2 teams in (and more likely 3-4).

Agreed. Arizona State and UCLA are on the right side of the cutline at this point IMHO. USC and Washington are on the wrong side but close. Utah I think is pretty fringe. I assume 1-3 of them will take care of business... But if they all lose their first game...

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Agreed. Arizona State and UCLA are on the right side of the cutline at this point IMHO. USC and Washington are on the wrong side but close. Utah I think is pretty fringe. I assume 1-3 of them will take care of business... But if they all lose their first game...

...we should be doing jumping jacks in joy!

[BM1090]

Crazy the Pac 12 couldn't get their tournament on national TV.  Utah vs. Oregon/WSU will be on FS1. One semifinal will be on FS1 and the final will be on FS1. The other 8 games will be on the pac 12 network