Bubble Watch 2018

[MU82]

Those are the two that hurt. Win both and MU would be a lock.

Georgia would be 3rd. Either home game against Xavier & Nova next.  It also would have been nice if we had a Michigan win instead of LSU (but the LSU win is still better than having a loss to Michigan).

Yeah, LH, there's plenty of room for what-iffin'!

Screw it ... let's win tomorrow, take at least one game at MSG and see what happens!

[MuMark]

Strong bubble this year according to Dance Card
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I've actually wondered if we can lose our season finale and still make it. I think the one thing our resume lacks is a true "signature" win. Our computer numbers are good. Our Q1 win total is good. Our bad losses are minimal. And our SOS is great. What if we lost to Creighton but then beat DePaul and then beat Villanova? All of the sudden we have a signature win. Does that look better then beating Creighton, beating DePaul,  and losing to Nova? On paper it does. But I wonder if beating Nova in the BET would be less impactful because the committee doesn't weight conference tournament games as heavily.

Either way,  let's just win tomorrow

Yep.  There is probably still an avenue to Dayton with a loss tomorrow, but it would be a very difficult road. 

[BM1090]

Strong bubble this year according to Dance Card
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

2nd team out. 91% chance a team with our profile would have gotten a bid in past years. So yeah, strong bubble. Really weak after the first four teams out or so

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

The upper half of the bracket is weak.  The bottom has picked up enough wins that the bubble has been become bloated. The last eight it in, first eight out have very similar profiles.  The differences are so slight, it will come down what the committee values most.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Strong bubble this year according to Dance Card
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

That's an interesting system. I know they've been historically accurate but I think they overestimate some of the mid major teams. Houston as a 4 seed? Middle Tennessee State as an 8 seed?  Loyola (IL)  as an at large...and not even in Dayton? Temple in but Texas out?

I do think they correctly put AZ State behind us on the bubble. They got ridiculously hot in the non conference season but have been middle of the pack in a very weak Pac 12.

If I'm reading his study correctly,  he says there are 10 teams competing for 6 spots and we're currently on the outside looking in. And that's assuming there are no bracket busters

[muguru]

2nd team out. 91% chance a team with our profile would have gotten a bid in past years. So yeah, strong bubble. Really weak after the first four teams out or so

Doesn't that 91% mean that's their chance of getting a bid THIS year?? I'm pretty sure it does.

[brewcity77]

Strong bubble this year according to Dance Card
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

I think it's less of a strong bubble and more a difficulty of distinguishing between teams. When that top-16 list came out, we heard about how Oklahoma didn't belong and Rhode Island got robbed. Now neither of those two look all that great. On blind resumes, it's tough to tell the difference between a NCAA 7/8 seed and a NIT 1/2 seed. The field isn't strong, but it has a ton of parity.

Don't get me wrong, I don't believe the "no great teams" mantra we've been fed. There are some great teams at the top, just not the names the ESPN types want at the top. But after the top 2-3 seed lines, the distinctions really blur.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

That's an interesting system. I know they've been historically accurate but I think they overestimate some of the mid major teams. Houston as a 4 seed? Middle Tennessee State as an 8 seed?  Loyola (IL)  as an at large...and not even in Dayton?

I do think they correctly put AZ State behind us on the bubble. They got ridiculously hot in the non conference season but have been middle of the pack in a very weak Pac 12

It's going to be tough to leave out a team with a neutral court win over X and a road win at Kansas.  But I agree, I don't think ASU necessarily deserves a bid.  The loss to Oregon State last week helps....they don't have any truly dreadful losses other than that.  I think they're in, but another loss to Stanford this weekend would make it pretty interesting. 

[MuMark]

Doesn't that 91% mean that's their chance of getting a bid THIS year?? I'm pretty sure it does.

No it means in past years 91% of teams with a similar profile have gotten in......

[MuMark]

That's an interesting system. I know they've been historically accurate but I think they overestimate some of the mid major teams. Houston as a 4 seed? Middle Tennessee State as an 8 seed?  Loyola (IL)  as an at large...and not even in Dayton? Temple in but Texas out?

I do think they correctly put AZ State behind us on the bubble. They got ridiculously hot in the non conference season but have been middle of the pack in a very weak Pac 12.

If I'm reading his study correctly,  he says there are 10 teams competing for 6 spots and we're currently on the outside looking in. And that's assuming there are no bracket busters

System is not meant to be used for seeding I don't think although the teams at the top will look similar to the top seeds i'm sure. Houston isn't likely to be a 4 seed as you said.....

[wisblue]

The Badgers are getting too close for my comfort to becoming a serious bid stealer threat. If they hold on to their second half lead over MSU they would be looking at a semifinal game against Michigan or Nebraska, two teams they could definitely beat.

This prospect is so appalling to me that I’ve sunk to the level of rooting for MSU to come back and win.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The Badgers are getting too close for my comfort to becoming a serious bid stealer threat. If they hold on to their second half lead over MSU they would be looking at a semifinal game against Michigan or Nebraska, two teams they could definitely beat.

This prospect is so appalling to me that I’ve sunk to the level of rooting for MSU to come back and win.

Wisconsin is not winning the B10 tourney.

[wisblue]

Wisconsin is not winning the B10 tourney.

Now I agree. But I have to shower after pulling for MSU

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Now I agree. But I have to shower after pulling for MSU

What's wrong with MSU?

[Babybluejeans]

This a good preview of the major bubble games this weekend (with other big games included):

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/03/02/weekend-picks-predictions-duke-north-carolina-rivalry-conference-championships

Read it alongside the writer's projections, especially the last four in/out: https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/03/01/ncaa-tournament-bracket-projections-virginia-villanova-kansas-xavier

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What's wrong with MSU?

I heard they had a doctor who liked the bad touch

[LoudMouth]

I heard they had a doctor who liked the bad touch

[auburnmarquette]

Strong bubble this year according to Dance Card
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

This is excellent. One may ask why the pure analytical formulas here give Marquette a 92% chance of being selected, yet only 4 of 70 bracket matrix selections pick Marquette (seemingly 6% chance).

I believe the answer is in Nate Silver's observation of "herding" of polls. No one wants to be embarrassed by a pick that is way off. Nate observes throughout elections polls are spread out giving a good balance of methodologies. However he notes in the closing days poll results mysteriously all seem to get closer and closer to the others in their final result (if you've never been in the back room of polling operations, trust me you can get your new results closer to the average by tweaking assumptions).

Based on Marquettes resume as reflected is espns SOR and this link, there is no way 66 of 70 brackets would leave Marquette off.

The herding occurs because everyone looks at Lunardi's bracket and next 8 out and palm's next four out, and they don't even consider teams they don't see. They don't have time to monitor all 351 teams, so the herd follows the brackets they see on TV every day and tweak those teams. With 70 brackets you'd expect some difference of opinion, but in fact all except 6 teams are either in more than 60 of 70 brackets or fewer than 10. The only 6 in between (3 in and 3 out) are:

Alabama 57
K-state 55
Texas 44
Cutoff
UCLA 25
Wash 15
Syracuse 13

Hopefully a win vs Creighton + 1 in the big east actually gives us a good shot, but we will see.

[brewcity77]

The herding occurs because everyone looks at Lunardi's bracket and next 8 out and palm's next four out, and they don't even consider teams they don't see. They don't have time to monitor all 351 teams, so the herd follows the brackets they see on TV every day and tweak those teams.

That's why I prefer to look at the actual resumes. Sites like Bracket Matrix become a bit of an echo chamber, and everyone focuses on those 4-5 key brackets and don't look at the entirety. When you put our resume next to the teams that perception has as "on the bubble", we are right there and have been for weeks. The Selection Committee won't have Lunardi and Palm's brackets in front of them and say "well, this is the pool of 72 teams we have to pick from", they will look at all the teams and all the resumes.

[auburnmarquette]

That's why I prefer to look at the actual resumes. Sites like Bracket Matrix become a bit of an echo chamber, and everyone focuses on those 4-5 key brackets and don't look at the entirety. When you put our resume next to the teams that perception has as "on the bubble", we are right there and have been for weeks. The Selection Committee won't have Lunardi and Palm's brackets in front of them and say "well, this is the pool of 72 teams we have to pick from", they will look at all the teams and all the resumes.

Exactly! Your term "echo chamber" is probably better than my term "herding," but we are describing the same thing.

[Its DJOver]

Nebraska down 15 in the first half.  Some say that they can still get an at large with a loss.  How is that possible with both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix having them out before today?

[MuMark]

This is excellent. One may ask why the pure analytical formulas here give Marquette a 92% chance of being selected, yet only 4 of 70 bracket matrix selections pick Marquette (seemingly 6% chance).

I believe the answer is in Nate Silver's observation of "herding" of polls. No one wants to be embarrassed by a pick that is way off. Nate observes throughout elections polls are spread out giving a good balance of methodologies. However he notes in the closing days poll results mysteriously all seem to get closer and closer to the others in their final result (if you've never been in the back room of polling operations, trust me you can get your new results closer to the average by tweaking assumptions).

Based on Marquettes resume as reflected is espns SOR and this link, there is no way 66 of 70 brackets would leave Marquette off.

The herding occurs because everyone looks at Lunardi's bracket and next 8 out and palm's next four out, and they don't even consider teams they don't see. They don't have time to monitor all 351 teams, so the herd follows the brackets they see on TV every day and tweak those teams. With 70 brackets you'd expect some difference of opinion, but in fact all except 6 teams are either in more than 60 of 70 brackets or fewer than 10. The only 6 in between (3 in and 3 out) are:

Alabama 57
K-state 55
Texas 44
Cutoff
UCLA 25
Wash 15
Syracuse 13

Hopefully a win vs Creighton + 1 in the big east actually gives us a good shot, but we will see.

Again not to nitpick but dance Card doesn't say MU has a 92% chance of being selected. It says profiles like Marquette's have been selected 92% of the time in the past. This year, as you can see, there are more teams deemed worthy of selection then in the past......which means a few are going to be left out.

Let's win a couple more and see where it leaves us.

[wisblue]

Nebraska down 15 in the first half.  Some say that they can still get an at large with a loss.  How is that possible with both Lunardi and Bracket Matrix having them out before today?

Poor end to the half by Michigan lets Nebraska back within 10 at halftime.

I can’t see any way that Nebraska gets in with a loss today. No more chances to improve their already weak resume. I think they need to win today and beat MSU to get in. People who think Nebraska should get in are looking at their 13-5   conference record without realizing how weak their schedule has been, including only playing each of the top 4 teams in the questionable B10 once each.

[MUBigDance]

Poor end to the half by Michigan lets Nebraska back within 10 at halftime.

I can’t see any way that Nebraska gets in with a loss today. No more chances to improve their already weak resume. I think they need to win today and beat MSU to get in. People who think Nebraska should get in are looking at their 13-5   conference record without realizing how weak their schedule has been, including only playing each of the top 4 teams in the questionable B10 once each.

Good point...and good example of why we should be skeptical of "good records".  There are a few 20s-n teams that will not and should not make it.  I personally didnt realize they played the top 4 only once.