Bubble Watch 2018

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Sure, but that only takes MU so far.

Just like Penn State’s sweep over Ohio State.

Erase the Seton Hall sweep and the Ohio State sweep, MU's resume is much better than Penn States.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

BLIND RESUME TIME! Half the teams are in, half the teams are out. You chose. 

Team 1
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 42
SOS: mid 50s

Team 2
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 35
SOS: mid 20s

Team 3
Q1: 5-10
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: high teens

Team 4
Q1: 3-5
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: high 50s

Team 5
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 47
SOS: mid teens

Team 6
Q1: 5-6
Q2: 6-6
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 2-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: High single digits

Team 7
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: mid 90s

Team 8
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 4-1
Avg Metric: 56
SOS: mid 20s

Team 9
Q1: 4-10
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: Lows 20s

Team 10
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: high 50s

Team 11
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 10-1
Avg Metric: 46
SOS: mid 80s

Team 12
Q1: 4-5
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 6-0
Q4: 7-1
Avg Metric: 41
SOS: mid 40s

Team 13
Q1: 1-5
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 11-0
Avg Metric: 54
SOS: low 100s

Team 14
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 52
SOS: mid 20s

Team 15
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 3-3
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: low 40s

Team 16
Q1: 3-6
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 77
SOS: low 50s

[wisblue]

Erase the Seton Hall sweep and the Ohio State sweep, MU's resume is much better than Penn States.

Absolutely true. The point is that you have to look at the whole picture, not just the best two games.

[BM1090]

Torvik has MU in the last four in.

Yep. 43% chance for a bid.

[wisblue]

My approach to the blind resumes would be:

1. Sort the teams by average metrics as a starting point.

2. Then look at the SOS and quadrant wins to see if there is anything unusually positive or negative to knock a team up or down.

Maybe later today I can take the time to pick my 8 in and 8 out. But, I would also like to see who those Q1 wins are against and give some bonus consideration to the teams that have beaten top 5 or top 10 teams over those whose best wins are against teams ranked 25-30.

Right out of the gate a team like number 13 (i'm pretty sure I know who that is) would be kicked to the curb with mediocre metrics for this group, low number of quality wins, and a weak SOS.

A team like team 3 would be in because of good metrics, strong SOS, and 8 Q 1 and 2 wins. I would work to the middle from there.

Team 8 would be a good candidate to overcome its metrics because of 8 quality wins and a strong SOS, especially if any of those Q1 wins is against a top 10 team.

[SaveOD238]

BLIND RESUME TIME! Half the teams are in, half the teams are out. You chose. 

Team 1 - IN
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 42
SOS: mid 50s

Team 2- IN
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 35
SOS: mid 20s

Team 3- IN
Q1: 5-10
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: high teens

Team 4- OUT
Q1: 3-5
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: high 50s

Team 5- OUT
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 47
SOS: mid teens

Team 6- IN
Q1: 5-6
Q2: 6-6
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 2-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: High single digits

Team 7 - OUT
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: mid 90s

Team 8- OUT
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 4-1
Avg Metric: 56
SOS: mid 20s

Team 9 - IN
Q1: 4-10
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: Lows 20s

Team 10- OUT
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: high 50s

Team 11 - IN
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 10-1
Avg Metric: 46
SOS: mid 80s

Team 12 - IN
Q1: 4-5
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 6-0
Q4: 7-1
Avg Metric: 41
SOS: mid 40s

Team 13- OUT
Q1: 1-5
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 11-0
Avg Metric: 54
SOS: low 100s

Team 14 - IN
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 52
SOS: mid 20s

Team 15 - OUT
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 3-3
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: low 40s

Team 16 - OUT
Q1: 3-6
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 77
SOS: low 50s

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yah, pretty similar to mine OD. 1,2,3,6,8,9,12,14 in. The rest out. I was on the fence between 8 and 5 for the last spot. 11 close behind.

But, as wiscblue said, blind resume snapshots only tell you so much.  More data on the individual notable wins and losses is needed to truly differentiate.

[fjm]

BLIND RESUME TIME! Half the teams are in, half the teams are out. You chose. 

Team 1
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 42
SOS: mid 50s

Team 2
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 35
SOS: mid 20s

Team 3
Q1: 5-10
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: high teens

Team 4
Q1: 3-5
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: high 50s

Team 5
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 47
SOS: mid teens

Team 6
Q1: 5-6
Q2: 6-6
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 2-0
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: High single digits

Team 7
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 9-0
Avg Metric: 61
SOS: mid 90s

Team 8
Q1: 3-7
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 4-1
Avg Metric: 56
SOS: mid 20s

Team 9
Q1: 4-10
Q2: 3-2
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: Lows 20s

Team 10
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 55
SOS: high 50s

Team 11
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 10-1
Avg Metric: 46
SOS: mid 80s

Team 12
Q1: 4-5
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 6-0
Q4: 7-1
Avg Metric: 41
SOS: mid 40s

Team 13
Q1: 1-5
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 11-0
Avg Metric: 54
SOS: low 100s

Team 14
Q1: 4-7
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 52
SOS: mid 20s

Team 15
Q1: 2-7
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 3-3
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 45
SOS: low 40s

Team 16
Q1: 3-6
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 77
SOS: low 50s

Teams that should be in:
1,2,3,6,9,14

(And MU I believe is 14?)

[fjm]

Yah, pretty similar to mine OD. 1,2,3,6,8,9,12,14 in. The rest out. I was on the fence between 8 and 5 for the last spot. 11 close behind.

But, as wiscblue said, blind resume snapshots only tell you so much.  More data on the individual notable wins and losses is needed to truly differentiate.

Please expand on the bolded. What else is needed??? The teams names? What conference? I mean should that matter if the RPI and SOS are solid as well?

This SHOULD be done blindly.

To expand. A Q1 is a Q1 win in the eyes of the committee. It shouldn't matter if it is SHU or Nova (although I get that t does... but if they made this a Quadrant thing, then stick with the quadrant thing. A Q1 win shouldn't mean more than another Q1 win.)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

They still look at quality of Q1 wins. That's what caused our drop out if the rankings despite winning in early February. Our best wins were the sweep of Seton Hall.  When Hall started to tank... So did the perception of our resume. That's also why we are rising now despite the DePaul loss. Hall is getting better and Creighton knocked off Nova,  makes our Q1 wins look better

[muguru]

Teams that should be in:
1,2,3,6,9,14

(And MU I believe is 14?)

MU is 14 without question

I Wonder if it will carry any weight that the sheer # of Q1 and Q2 games played, favors MU. They have played 18(will be 19 Sat) against Q1 and Q2 teams..when you look through all the teams ahead of them by RPI there arent that many that have played as many or more of those than MU has.

[fjm]

They still look at quality of Q1 wins. That's what caused our drop out if the rankings despite winning in early February. Our best wins were the sweep of Seton Hall.  When Hall started to tank... So did the perception of our resume. That's also why we are rising now despite the DePaul loss. Hall is getting better and Creighton knocked off Nova,  makes our Q1 wins look better

Arg. I get what you're saying.
But if you go to a store and you get Grade A meat. And the next shelf also has GRADE A meat. It should be Grade A meat. (This is a terrible analogy. But ya know what I'm sayin ya know?)

[skianth16]

Please expand on the bolded. What else is needed??? The teams names? What conference? I mean should that matter if the RPI and SOS are solid as well?

This SHOULD be done blindly.

To expand. A Q1 is a Q1 win in the eyes of the committee. It shouldn't matter if it is SHU or Nova (although I get that t does... but if they made this a Quadrant thing, then stick with the quadrant thing. A Q1 win shouldn't mean more than another Q1 win.)

The quadrants make the assessment a little easier, but there's still a wide range of team represented in each quadrant. If team A has 3 road wins against RPI 58, 64, 75, there's a chance they might not have won a single game against a tournament team. If team B has 3 home wins against RPI 1, 7, 12, they have wins over some of the top seeds in the tournament. Both teams have 3 Q1 wins, but the actual quality of the opponents varies quite a bit. Just like the RPI calculations, the quadrant system isn't perfect and still may require a little extra digging to make the best comparisons.

[fjm]

So really then, there is:
Q1a
Q1b
Q1c
Q1d
Q2a
Q2b
....

Not all Q1 wins are created equally, I get that kinda. But then don't call it a Q1 win.

[fjm]

The quadrants make the assessment a little easier, but there's still a wide range of team represented in each quadrant. If team A has 3 road wins against RPI 58, 64, 75, there's a chance they might not have won a single game against a tournament team. If team B has 3 home wins against RPI 1, 7, 12, they have wins over some of the top seeds in the tournament. Both teams have 3 Q1 wins, but the actual quality of the opponents varies quite a bit. Just like the RPI calculations, the quadrant system isn't perfect and still may require a little extra digging to make the best comparisons.

Ok thanks. This really helped my brain.

[muguru]

I've said it before, Dayton would be Icky though...Because if you lose, it's like you weren't really even in the tournament. You are technically, but to most the tournament starts Thursday. If you win, it's not big deal, but honestly, I'd almost rather they be in the NIT with a #1 or #2 seed and get to New York, then play a play in game of the NCAA's and they lose. I know most don't share that view, and I understand that, but that's just my personal preference.

[Tha Hound]

I've said it before, Dayton would be Icky though...Because if you lose, it's like you weren't really even in the tournament. You are technically, but to most the tournament starts Thursday. If you win, it's not big deal, but honestly, I'd almost rather they be in the NIT with a #1 or #2 seed and get to New York, then play a play in game of the NCAA's and they lose. I know most don't share that view, and I understand that, but that's just my personal preference.

Yeah I'd much rather be in Dayton.

[Nukem2]

Yeah I'd much rather be in Dayton.

Would rather be in Dayton than the NIT.  It still counts as the NCAAs.

[WarriorInNYC]

The quadrants make the assessment a little easier, but there's still a wide range of team represented in each quadrant. If team A has 3 road wins against RPI 58, 64, 75, there's a chance they might not have won a single game against a tournament team. If team B has 3 home wins against RPI 1, 7, 12, they have wins over some of the top seeds in the tournament. Both teams have 3 Q1 wins, but the actual quality of the opponents varies quite a bit. Just like the RPI calculations, the quadrant system isn't perfect and still may require a little extra digging to make the best comparisons.

Exactly, especially with the range for Q1 road wins.  If you were to take every Q1 is equal, then winning at Rider, UCF, and Charleston would be the same as winning at UVA, Nova, and Xavier.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I've said it before, Dayton would be Icky though...Because if you lose, it's like you weren't really even in the tournament. You are technically, but to most the tournament starts Thursday. If you win, it's not big deal, but honestly, I'd almost rather they be in the NIT with a #1 or #2 seed and get to New York, then play a play in game of the NCAA's and they lose. I know most don't share that view, and I understand that, but that's just my personal preference.

Ya.....no.  Dayton is the NCAAs.  I get what you're saying (I don't agree at all) in that to the casual fan its just a play in game.  But it counts as a tourney appearance.  To say you'd prefer NIT over a tourney appearance is nuts...especially with your repeated standards.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Please expand on the bolded. What else is needed??? The teams names? What conference? I mean should that matter if the RPI and SOS are solid as well?

This SHOULD be done blindly.

To expand. A Q1 is a Q1 win in the eyes of the committee. It shouldn't matter if it is SHU or Nova (although I get that t does... but if they made this a Quadrant thing, then stick with the quadrant thing. A Q1 win shouldn't mean more than another Q1 win.)

This has been sufficiently answered, so I think you get it.  The NCAA committee head even mentioned this in a recent interview (not all Q1 wins are equal).  Thankfully our Q1 wins are pretty solid.  We don't have any top 10 wins, but road wins against RPI ~top 40 teams are gold, and we have 3. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

BLIND RESUME TIME! Half the teams are in, half the teams are out. You chose. 

Here's what I got:

Last Four Byes
Team 3
Team 6
Team 9
Team 2

Last Four In
Team 12
Team 14
Team 1
Team 5

First Four Out
Team 8
Team 15
Team 4
Team 11

Next Four Out
Team 7
Team 10
Team 16
Team 13

EDIT: Just checked, J5, OD and I are almost exact. J5 as 8 in which is my first team out. OD has 11 in which is in my first four out. Both of them kept 5 out which I had as my very last team in the tournament. So far on the same page!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I went and looked up the teams. I was very surprised about who Team 1 is. They are considered a lock almost everywhere and I had them playing in Dayton.

Team 10 also had its quadrant wins change. RPI may have been updated since the post, their quad wins look like this now:

1: 3-6
2: 2-2
3: 7-2
4: 7-0

Finally, I have no idea who team 16 is. Couldn't find anyone who matched their profile.

[Windyplayer]

This is great. Good stuff, Scoop.

[Marquette4life]

I went and looked up the teams. I was very surprised about who Team 1 is. They are considered a lock almost everywhere and had them playing in Dayton.

Team 10 also had its quadrant wins change. RPI may have been updated since the post, their quad wins look like this now: tamu, pm me who team one is

1: 3-6
2: 2-2
3: 7-2
4: 7-0

Finally, I have no idea who team 16 is. Couldn't find anyone who matched their profile.