Bubble Watch 2018

[SaveOD238]

I took out NC State (IN) and took out Penn State (OUT).  Added Boise St.

Providence still has to play Seton Hall, @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns.  Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!

K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor.  Go Sooners/Frogs!

USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA.  Go Buffs (again)!

Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va.  Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!

St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU.  Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!

Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State.  Go Hokies/Cavs!

Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState.  Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)

——————————————————-BracketMatrix Cut Line——————————————-

UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC.  Go Buffs/Trojans!

Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson.  Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!

Washington has to play @Stanford, @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon.  Go Cardinal/Bears/Beavers/Ducks!

Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU.  Go Cocks/Vols!

LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt.  Go Cocks (again)!

Boise State has to play @SDSU and Wyoming.

Nebraska just has Penn St.  BT Tournament: winner of Mich, Iowa, or UIUC

MARQUETTE

Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado.  Go Buffs (again!)

Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn.  Go Aggies/Vols!

[SaveOD238]

A few thoughts on those last couple teams in that I posted above.

Providence would have to lose both, and even then they might be in with X and VU wins.

It would be really nice to see K-State and Baylor go into their last game both on two-game losing streaks.  In that case, the loser is probably out.

USC falling to UCLA, Texas losing to WV, or Louisville losing to Virginia or NC State aren’t bad enough losses to knock those teams out.

St. Bona dropping games against Davidson and SLU is unlikely, but would hurt their resume big time.

So what I’m saying is, those teams ahead of us need to really screw up for us to pass them.  Plus there are seven teams in front of us to take their place.  It’s not looking pretty.  I think we’re playing for NIT seeding at this point, but I’d love to be wrong.

[Newsdreams]

A few thoughts on those last couple teams in that I posted above.

Providence would have to lose both, and even then they might be in with X and VU wins.

It would be really nice to see K-State and Baylor go into their last game both on two-game losing streaks.  In that case, the loser is probably out.

USC falling to UCLA, Texas losing to WV, or Louisville losing to Virginia or NC State aren’t bad enough losses to knock those teams out.

St. Bona dropping games against Davidson and SLU is unlikely, but would hurt their resume big time.

So what I’m saying is, those teams ahead of us need to really screw up for us to pass them.  Plus there are seven teams in front of us to take their place.  It’s not looking pretty.  I think we’re playing for NIT seeding at this point, but I’d love to be wrong.

If Creighton/SH/MU end up 9-9 would we be 6 or 5 seed?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If Creighton/SH/MU end up 9-9 would we be 6 or 5 seed?

5 seed. Would require Creighton to lose s home game to DePaul though.

[SaveOD238]

If Creighton/SH/MU end up 9-9 would we be 6 or 5 seed?

5. We’d win the mini-conference by virtue of a 4-0 record against those teams.  Creighton would have to lose against DePaul for us to end up in that situation, though.  Hell, we could get the four seed if Providence loses out to end at 9-9 too.

But even if it did happen, I doubt the committee will look at conference standings to determine seeding.  It just doesn’t matter as much as wins and losses.  Nebraska got the 4 seed in the B10 tournament, but they are still well behind Michigan (5 seed) in the pecking order. 

[auburnmarquette]

Makes sense, though I still think the chance of us being ahead of teams selected in the final Big East standings would give us a better shot than Nebraska over Michigan - because we do have components like Quadrant 1 wins and road wins. I believe we need three more wins - vs. Creighton, whoever we play as a 6 or 7 seed first, and then we'd end up with the 2-seed (either Xavier or Villanova). That last one is the really hard single game to see, but we've played them both fairly tough once this year.

[Herman Cain]

Beat Creighton. Make it to Final of BET and we are in.

[BM1090]

Beat Creighton. Make it to Final of BET and we are in.

Don't need that much. 1 win in NYC may be enough. 2 definitely would be.

And if we make it to the final of the BET we may as well win the damn thing.

[SaveOD238]

Beat Creighton. Make it to Final of BET and we are in.

Oddly enough, I think beat Creighton, beat anyone in NYC, and play X or Nova (quarters or semis, doesn’t matter) might be enough to do it.  Just playing X or Nova again would make our SOS and RPI pretty brilliant looking, plus the two wins would push us to 9 wins in Q1 and Q2.

Not convinced it’ll happen though.

[GoldenDieners32]

We got this.

[We R Final Four]

Beat Creighton. Make it to Final of BET and we are in.

Haha—OK. Settle down. We beat Georgetown. We aren’t playing for a BEAST championship.

[GooooMarquette]

And if we make it to the final of the BET we may as well win the damn thing.

I agree with this analysis.

[Windyplayer]

5 seed. Would require Creighton to lose s home game to DePaul though.

DePaul did beat Providence by 17 at the Dunk...

[MUfan12]

Torvik and Stewart Mandel have MU in the first four out.

That f*cking DePaul game, man.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Torvik and Stewart Mandel have MU in the first four out.

That f*cking DePaul game, man.

Or the Providence game... Or the Nova game... Or the Xavier game... Or the Georgia game.

A W in any one of these close losses and we are probably in at this point... Of course a loss in any of our close wins and we are probably not in the bubble conversation

Just goes to show how much a few points can swing a season

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Oddly enough, I think beat Creighton, beat anyone in NYC, and play X or Nova (quarters or semis, doesn’t matter) might be enough to do it.  Just playing X or Nova again would make our SOS and RPI pretty brilliant looking, plus the two wins would push us to 9 wins in Q1 and Q2.

Not convinced it’ll happen though.

This is what is needed to make me feel pretty confident.  I think we have a chance at Dayton if we end up with the 6 and lose in the 3/6 game, but I almost prefer to get the 7 seed, win that game, and then get one more shot at Nova team we've played pretty tough.  A win and we are safely in the field and avoid Dayton.  A loss and I will be nervous on Selection Sunday, but I think we'd ultimately sneak into the play-in games.

Obviously all this requires beating Creighton on Saturday.   

[Its DJOver]

How much of a bump would our RPI get just by playing Nova/X a third time?
IMO right now the thing I'm most nervous about is our RPI, I know that hey look at it less now than they have in years past, but I would feel a whole lot better with 9-9 if our RPI were 10-12 slots higher.

[GoldenDieners32]

This is what is needed to make me feel pretty confident.  I think we have a chance at Dayton if we end up with the 6 and lose in the 3/6 game, but I almost prefer to get the 7 seed, win that game, and then get one more shot at Nova team we've played pretty tough.  A win and we are safely in the field and avoid Dayton.  A loss and I will be nervous on Selection Sunday, but I think we'd ultimately sneak into the play-in games.

Obviously all this requires beating Creighton on Saturday.

Thinking too far into the future here but if we get into Dayton that could potentially be good, win that game and get a 6 seed, i would like our chances just need to get momentum and beat creighton finish on a high note

[MUfan12]

If the SJU 7/10 game is considered a road game, RPIwizard has MU at 51 if they win and lose to Nova.

[GoldenDieners32]

we're marching again this year

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

How much of a bump would our RPI get just by playing Nova/X a third time?
IMO right now the thing I'm most nervous about is our RPI, I know that hey look at it less now than they have in years past, but I would feel a whole lot better with 9-9 if our RPI were 10-12 slots higher.

Look back a couple pages.  Went through most scenarios late yesterday afternoon.

[Marquette4life]

we're marching again this year

how

[Its DJOver]

If the SJU 7/10 game is considered a road game, RPIwizard has MU at 51 if they win and lose to Nova.

Thanks, I would be fairly comfortable with that

[Galway Eagle]

Not to sound like Wades but Saturday's the biggest game of the season.

We basically control our own destiny here on out.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Not to sound like Wades but Saturday's the biggest game of the season.

We basically control our own destiny here on out.

I agree Saturday is biggest game of the season.

But pretty much every team that didn’t lose last night in their conference tourney opener still controls their own destiny.