Bubble Watch 2018

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Remaining schedule for Lunardi's last 8 in, and first 8 out:

Virginia Tech (vs. Duke, @ Miami, ACC Tour)
Kansas State (@TCU, vs, Baylor, B12 Tour)
St. Bonnie (vs. Davidson, @ SLU, A10)
Providence (@Xavier, vs. SJU, BE)
Louisville (vs. Virginia, @NC State, ACC)
USC (vs. UCLA, P12)
Baylor (vs. Oklahoma, @ K State, B12)
Texas (@Kansas, vs. West Virginia, B12)
Syracuse (@Boston College, vs. Clemson, ACC)
UCLA (@USC, P12)
Nebraska (B10)
Mississippi State (vs. Tennessee, @LSU, SEC)
Washington (vs. Oregon State, vs. Oregon, P12)
Boise State (@San Diego State, vs. Wyoming, MWC)
Utah (vs. Colorado, P12)
Notre Dame (vs. Pitt, vs. Virginia, ACC)

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Notre Dame's resume is awful.  I hadn't really analyzed them much because they really aren't that close to the bubble, but since Lunardi listed them I took a look. 

3 quad 3 losses (Ball State (H), Indiana (H), Georgia Tech (A).

Only 2 quad 1 wins. Wichita State (N) in Maui and at Syracuse. 

They're 7-9 in the ACC but their 7 ACC wins are Georgia Tech (H), NC State (H), Syracuse (A), Boston College (H), Florida State (H), Boston College (A), and Wake Forest (A).  They'll add their 8th in PITT tomorrow, but this rivals Nebraska in terms of hollow major conference wins. 

Pretty decent ratings in BPI (31), Kenpom (29) and Sagrin (25), but RPI (68) and SOR (60) are down there a ways.  The only game of substance they have won since January 5th is a home game versus a very mediocre Florida State team. 

Gross.

[Babybluejeans]

I'm sure this has been posted, but is there a way to project what our RPI would be if we finish 2-0 and win the BET opener, but lose the next one (i.e. finish 3-1)? 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'm sure this has been posted, but is there a way to project what our RPI would be if we finish 2-0 and win the BET opener, but lose the next one (i.e. finish 3-1)?

Yes. rpiforecast.com.

Heading into BET: 18-12; RPI 56, SOS: 26.

If 7 seed. First round W over SJU, loss to Nova.  19-13; RPI 51, SOS: 22.

If 7 seed. First round W over Depaul, loss to Nova.  19-13; RPI 56, SOS: 25.

If 6 seed.  First round L to Providence.  18-13; RPI:61 , SOS:25.

If 6 seed.  First round W over PC; loss to X.  19-13; RPI: 50, SOS: 17.

If 6 seed. First round L to Butler.  18-13; RPI: 61, SOS: 26.

If 6 seed. First round W over Butler; loss to X. 19-13; RPI: 51, SOS: 17.

[GoldenDieners32]

Getting a 7 seed and splitting SJU and Nova would be good, but would love to beat butler first round

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

Thanks for doing this j5.

A few of those scenarios seem very reasonable and those computer numbers seem adequate for ncaa. I plead ignorance on these bracketology resumes, etc but would 3 of those top 4 scenarios get it done?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Thanks for doing this j5.

A few of those scenarios seem very reasonable and those computer numbers seem adequate for ncaa. I plead ignorance on these bracketology resumes, etc but would 3 of those top 4 scenarios get it done?

I think 1, 2, 3, and 5 get it done.  But a couple would be close, perhaps last team in...if we have a handful of bid stealers (as mentioned previously, the number of conferences that could produce bid stealers is pretty small (ignoring major conferences)), who knows. 

I think the 6 seed gives us the best chance (albeit still small) to actually run the table in the BET.  But winning the 7/10 seed game and then playing Nova probably is the best for RPI.  That said, I don't know if the 2-0 finish to Big East play would be enough of a boost to get us in with just a win over SJU/Depaul in the BET.

Basically...what logic says would be the best case scenario isn't necessarily the best case scenario for RPI. If I had to choose, give me the 6 seed, let's go to battle against PC/Butler/Creighton, hopefully win that game and then take a swing at X for a chance to dance. A loss there I think we'd still have a chance at Dayton pending generally positive bubble results the next 2 weeks.

[GoldenDieners32]

I haven't really been paying attention to the smaller conferences, but what are some potential bid stealers?

[wisblue]

With ND, is Lunardi thinking that Colson might return and, if he does, and if ND wins some games, ND could get a big injury concession from the NCAA?

They might discount some of their 7 straight losses and say they aren’t indicative of the ND team with Colson.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I haven't really been paying attention to the smaller conferences, but what are some potential bid stealers?

The only conferences outside of the P6 that are getting autobids are as follows:

American: Cinci, Wichita, Houston

Mountain West: Nevada

West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Marys

Atlantic 10: Rhode Island, St. Bonnie (bubble)

So if a team outside of those listed above win their conference tournaments, bids would be stolen.  I don't think any other team not in the BE, B12, ACC, SEC, B10 or P12 is getting an at large invite if they don't win their conference tournament. Boise (MWC) is fringe bubble, but I don't think they're getting an at large.  Would be best if they just lost early in MWC tourney.

I think the potentially riskier situation is a team from major conference that wouldn't otherwise get a bid winning their tourney or picking up some huge wins to boost their at large resume.  UCLA, Washington, Utah maybe running the table in the P12?  Perhaps Penn State or Nebraska getting some big wins the B10 tournament and running to the finals and maybe staling an AQ or at large.  Perhaps Georgia, LSU or Mississppi in the SEC.  Notre Dame, Louisville, Cuse in the ACC.  Oklahoma State or Texas in the B12 (Texas very well may have 14 losses by the end of this week).

[Babybluejeans]

Yes. rpiforecast.com.

Heading into BET: 18-12; RPI 56, SOS: 26.

If 7 seed. First round W over SJU, loss to Nova.  19-13; RPI 51, SOS: 22.

If 7 seed. First round W over Depaul, loss to Nova.  19-13; RPI 56, SOS: 25.

If 6 seed.  First round L to Providence.  18-13; RPI:61 , SOS:25.

If 6 seed.  First round W over PC; loss to X.  19-13; RPI: 50, SOS: 17.

If 6 seed. First round L to Butler.  18-13; RPI: 61, SOS: 26.

If 6 seed. First round W over Butler; loss to X. 19-13; RPI: 51, SOS: 17.

Wow, thanks for this. It seems like any of the 3-1 scenarios leaves us with a decent shot at getting in.

[BM1090]

T Rank also has us safely in at 8-10 if we win 2 in the BET (SJU and Nova) and lose in the semifinals. 5th last team in, avoiding Dayton.

I don't think that would turn out to be accurate.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wow, thanks for this. It seems like any of the 3-1 scenarios leaves us with a decent shot at getting in.

Bracketology has been funny this season. If we go 9-9 were going to end with a better RPI and SOS then last year when we were a 10 seed. That's why so many of us were so confident.  Despite this,  we get zero love from Lunardi and the like. Not sure if it's new points of emphasis or what. We've got 4 Q1 wins but I think @Hall, @PROV,  and -CREI just don't do it for some people... Even though they are good wins on paper.

[forgetful]

T Rank also has us safely in at 8-10 if we win 2 in the BET (SJU and Nova) and lose in the semifinals. 5th last team in, avoiding Dayton.

I don't think that would turn out to be accurate.

If that happened, assuming the loss in the BET would be Butler, we'd end up with an RPI of 61, and SOS of 22. 

[cheese ball chaser]

Getting a 7 seed and splitting SJU and Nova would be good, but would love to beat butler first round

I don't want us anywhere near Butler in the BET

[Windyplayer]

Bracketology has been funny this season. If we go 9-9 were going to end with a better RPI and SOS then last year when we were a 10 seed. That's why so many of us were so confident.  Despite this,  we get zero love from Lunardi and the like. Not sure if it's new points of emphasis or what. We've got 4 Q1 wins but I think @Hall, @PROV,  and -CREI just don't do it for some people... Even though they are good wins on paper.

Sweeps of both Seton Hall and Creighton would be pretty difficult to ignore.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Sweeps of both Seton Hall and Creighton would be pretty difficult to ignore.

See I would think so, but they've been ignoring sweeps of Hall, @Creighton, and @PROV thus far. Guess they are not signature enough for the bracketologists

[GGGG]

Lose v. Creighton:  Gotta win BET
Win and 0-1 BET:  I would guess no
Win and 1-1 BET:  I would guess yes
Win and 2-1 BET:  Lock.

[nyg]

Lose v. Creighton:  Gotta win BET
Win and 0-1 BET:  I would guess no
Win and 1-1 BET:  I would guess yes
Win and 2-1 BET:  Lock.

All of the above.  So, lets beat Creighton, who just beat Nova and then revenge game against St. Johns. 

[wisblue]

See I would think so, but they've been ignoring sweeps of Hall, @Creighton, and @PROV thus far. Guess they are not signature enough for the bracketologists

If they can complete the sweep of Creighton we can look more closely. But my theory is that MU is hurt by not having any wins against REALLY top teams, like teams in the top 10, and not just hanging around the top 25. Last year MU got a big boost with the win over Villanova. I would bet that if they had lost to Villanova but won one against Butler they would have been a couple of spots lower on the seed list.

When we compare MU’s resume with the last few teams in the field we should add a space for “best win” and see if that tells us anything.

[brewcity77]

All of the above.  So, lets beat Creighton, who just beat Nova and then revenge game against St. Johns.

I'd sooner beat Creighton, St. John's, Villanova, Providence, and Xavier just to eliminate any doubt.

Seems lofty, I'll admit.

[wisblue]

Lose v. Creighton:  Gotta win BET
Win and 0-1 BET:  I would guess no
Win and 1-1 BET:  I would guess yes
Win and 2-1 BET:  Lock.

Pending a closer review of the resumes of who’s right around the cut line after this weekend I am a little more bearish than this. Past history tells me that the Committee doesn’t put as much weight of conference tournament games as fans do. If MU isn’t in the field going into the conference tournaments, a win over St. John’s isn’t going to put them in unless a few teams just ahead of them take horrendous losses, which in some of the top conferences is almost impossible.

A win over St. John’s followed by a win over Villanova would put MU in the conversation, but could still depend on what the other teams right on the cut line do.

That loss to DePaul really hurt on Saturday, and it hurts even more now with the Georgetown game (which should have been the tougher of the two) in the bank.

The fun thing is that we have 4 days now to see how the cut line is shaping up and, if MU can win Saturday, a few more to narrow it down even further.

Can still hope for Seton Hall to lose their last two and give MU a chance to get the 6 seed and avoid the Wednesday game. That would give MU a chance to get a win over an NCAA bound team before facing Villanova. 1-1 in the BET with a win over Butler would look a lot better than 1-1 with the win over SJU.

ETA: I just looked really quickly at the records of the last 10 or so teams that are in the field in Lunardi’s bracket. There aren’t as many as I thought there might be that have wins against top 10 or even top 20 teams. So, I’ll have to look for other factors that put some of those teams ahead of MU in the pecking order.

[brewcity77]

That loss to DePaul really hurt on Saturday, and it hurts even more now with the Georgetown game (which should have been the tougher of the two) in the bank.

I've been thinking this all night. Had we won that DePaul games and all other things remained equal, I think we'd have pretty much stamped our ticket tonight. That loss is looming very large now.

On the upside, we are probably guaranteed a NIT bid now. I know some fans don't get excited for the NIT, but for a young team like ours, the chance for extra elimination-style games could really help get them ready for next year. Obviously I'd prefer the NCAA, even as a Dayton play-in, but any extra basketball is good basketball.

[Newsdreams]

I'd sooner beat Creighton, St. John's, Villanova, Providence, and Xavier just to eliminate any doubt.

Seems lofty, I'll admit.

If SH loses next 2 we win Sat and 1 BET unless SH goes on a big run I do not see how they could leave us out unless there is a huge amount of unexpected tournament results. Then would only 5 BE teams.

[Warrior of Law]

This W puts us in the postseason and keeps alive the NCAA possibility.  If the NIT, the extra practice time, and likely home games, will help a young team develop. Heck, they could win a few in a row and get back to NYC.