Author Topic: Bubble Watch 2018 (Read 244155 times)

brewcity77 · « **Reply #450 on:** February 22, 2018, 06:11:48 PM »

Quote from: MUDish on February 22, 2018, 04:11:52 PM

Most of this doesn't matter until conference tournaments start. Rather than focusing on nightly matchups, better perspective is how bubble teams roads in their conference tournament lineup. The real concern is if a team like Northwestern, San Diego St, or Oregon win their conference tournaments.

The nightly matchups have far more impact on selection than the conference tournaments do. Many of the teams, like the ones you list, only get in by winning the conference tournament. Will there be some bid thieves? Probably. But in general, conference tournament games are far less impactful on the resume than the regular season games are, so unless you win your tournament, those games really don't mean much at all. In terms of selection, the games between now and the kickoff of conference tourney play are far, far more important than any games after barring a tourney final.

DegenerateDish · « **Reply #451 on:** February 22, 2018, 06:59:16 PM »

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 22, 2018, 06:11:48 PM

The nightly matchups have far more impact on selection than the conference tournaments do. Many of the teams, like the ones you list, only get in by winning the conference tournament. Will there be some bid thieves? Probably. But in general, conference tournament games are far less impactful on the resume than the regular season games are, so unless you win your tournament, those games really don't mean much at all. In terms of selection, the games between now and the kickoff of conference tourney play are far, far more important than any games after barring a tourney final.

I'm talking totality. If there's 34 at large bids (or whatever the number is), two surprise tournament winners shrinks the bubble far more than Utah/UCLA does tonight. MU has to worry about MU, but I'd be way more worried about a bid stealer who otherwise isn't going than Utah/UCLA this evening.

BM1090 · « **Reply #452 on:** February 22, 2018, 07:59:05 PM »

Not bubble, but Wisconsin held on to beat Northwestern. They move up to 122 RPI, 13 spots better than the Q2 cutoff. A loss to MSU at home would only drop them a few spots, so they are likely guaranteed to be a Q2 win barring a terrible loss in the Big Ten Tournament

PGsHeroes32 · « **Reply #453 on:** February 22, 2018, 08:01:09 PM »

Quote from: MUeagle1090 on February 22, 2018, 07:59:05 PM

Not bubble, but Wisconsin held on to beat Northwestern. They move up to 122 RPI, 13 spots better than the Q2 cutoff. A loss to MSU at home would only drop them a few spots, so they are likely guaranteed to be a Q2 win barring a terrible loss in the Big Ten Tournament

Yikes that’s a bad RPI

Good that they can at least be a Q2 for us tho

cheese ball chaser · « **Reply #454 on:** February 22, 2018, 08:59:46 PM »

Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on February 22, 2018, 08:01:09 PM

Yikes that’s a bad RPI

Good that they can at least be a Q2 for us tho

Tonight's game was a win/win in my mind. If Wisconsin loses, hooray! They lose. If they win, better for MU's RPI. Admittedly I'd prefer them to win at this point though.

BM1090 · « **Reply #455 on:** February 22, 2018, 10:13:30 PM »

Washington and UCLA lost

SaveOD238 · « **Reply #456 on:** February 22, 2018, 10:15:02 PM »

Quote from: SaveOD238 on February 22, 2018, 12:08:50 PM

We're going to keep winning, but we need the bubble teams to falter.

So let's wish the worst on our bubble competition:

Providence still has to play Seton Hall, @Georgetown, @X, and vs. St Johns. Go Hoyas/Muskies/Johnnies!
K-State still has to play @Oklahoma, @TCU, and Baylor. Go Sooners/Frogs!
NC State still has to play Florida State, @Georgia Tech, and Louisville. Go Noles/Jackets!
Texas still has to play OK State, @Kansas, and West Va. Go Cowboys/Jayhawks/Mountaineers!
UCLA still has to play @Utah, @Colorado, and @USC. Go Buffs/Trojans!
St. Bonaventure still has to play @VCU, Davidson, @SLU. Go Rams/Bobcats/Billikens!
Baylor has to play @TCU, Oklahoma, and @KState. Go Frogs (again) and Sooners (again)
Syracuse has to play @Duke, @BC, and Clemson. Go Devils/Eagles/Tigers!
Louisville has to play @VT, Virginia, and @NC State. Go Hokies/Cavs!
Washington has to play @Stanford, @Cal, Oregon St, and Oregon. Go Cardinal/Bears/Beavers/Ducks!
USC has to play @Colorado, @Utah, and UCLA. Go Buffs (again)!
Mississippi St has to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and @LSU. Go Cocks/Vols!
LSU has to play @Georgia, @South Carolina, and MissSt. Go Cocks (again)!
Penn State just has @Nebraska.
Nebraska just has Penn St
Utah has to play UCLA, USC, Colorado. Go Buffs (again!)
Georgia has to play LSU, A&M, @Tenn. Go Aggies/Vols!

In summary, we really like TCU, Oklahoma, Colorado, and South Carolina down the stretch. PAC 12 chaos is also probably a good thing.

I’m going to try to keep this updated with results this week. Here we go.
Loss
Win

Windyplayer · « **Reply #457 on:** February 22, 2018, 10:28:29 PM »

Quote from: SaveOD238 on February 22, 2018, 10:15:02 PM

I’m going to try to keep this updated with results this week. Here we go.
Loss
Win

Thank you.

LoudMouth · « **Reply #458 on:** February 22, 2018, 10:38:33 PM »

Quote from: SaveOD238 on February 22, 2018, 10:15:02 PM

I’m going to try to keep this updated with results this week. Here we go.
Loss
Win

Love it. Thanks for the help

BM1090 · « **Reply #459 on:** February 23, 2018, 12:05:05 AM »

Bracket matrix has us as the 4th team out now. Washington, 2nd team out, lost tonight to Stanford and with a Kenpom rating at 98 they are pretty much done. Realistically, 3rd team out heading into tomorrow.

BM1090 · « **Reply #460 on:** February 23, 2018, 12:25:57 AM »

ASU lost. Pretty much a perfect night for MU

No bubble games tomorrow. Everyone enjoy the night off!

jsglow · « **Reply #461 on:** February 23, 2018, 06:54:37 AM »

Quote from: SaveOD238 on February 22, 2018, 10:15:02 PM

I’m going to try to keep this updated with results this week. Here we go.
Loss
Win

This is good SaveOD. Just to clarify the rules for us slow guys. The bolded team is the bubble team. When the bubble team loses (a good thing) the opponent is listed in red.

I need this done by a George Bush impersonator. Red good. Green baaaaaad.

SaveOD238 · « **Reply #462 on:** February 23, 2018, 07:14:59 AM »

Quote from: jsglow on February 23, 2018, 06:54:37 AM

This is good SaveOD. Just to clarify the rules for us slow guys. The bolded team is the bubble team. When the bubble team loses (a good thing) the opponent is listed in red.

I need this done by a George Bush impersonator. Red good. Green baaaaaad.

Yep. I also bolded when bubble teams play each other. If a team suffers enough losses or gets enough wins that they seem to be pretty much off the bubble one way or the other, I'll start to trim the list.

ZiggysFryBoy · « **Reply #463 on:** February 23, 2018, 08:20:35 AM »

Quote from: jsglow on February 23, 2018, 06:54:37 AM

This is good SaveOD. Just to clarify the rules for us slow guys. The bolded team is the bubble team. When the bubble team loses (a good thing) the opponent is listed in red.

I need this done by a George Bush impersonator. Red good. Green baaaaaad.

and Dana Carvey as GHWB making bomb sounds when someone's bubble bursts.

TheGym · « **Reply #464 on:** February 23, 2018, 09:07:35 AM »

OK, more red good, more green bad. Got it!

SaveOD238 · « **Reply #465 on:** February 23, 2018, 09:59:58 AM »

Quote from: TheGym on February 23, 2018, 09:07:35 AM

OK, more red good, more green bad. Got it!

Especially red at the top. Green at the bottom isn't so bad as long as we keep winning.

JakeBarnes · « **Reply #466 on:** February 23, 2018, 10:11:46 AM »

The Bubble watch at the Athletic has us as barely in the conversation for now.

ESPN:

Quote

Marquette is still lurking on the fringes of this discussion. Everything would have to fall just right to get an at-large bid, but it's at least conceivable.

The Golden Eagles need to win on the road against DePaul and Georgetown, setting up a regular-season finale at home against Creighton (and a potential season sweep of the Bluejays). Win those three games, and a Golden Eagles team with a 10-8 Big East record will take their chances to improve their résumé in the Big East tournament.

Someone needs to tell them that a 10-8 record would put us higher in the standings than most of their "should be in."

MuMark · « **Reply #467 on:** February 23, 2018, 10:14:04 AM »

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Its DJOver · « **Reply #468 on:** February 23, 2018, 10:17:35 AM »

Quote from: JakeBarnes on February 23, 2018, 10:11:46 AM

The Bubble watch at the Athletic has us as barely in the conversation for now.

ESPN:
Someone needs to tell them that a 10-8 record would put us higher in the standings than most of their "should be in."

Also don't know how PC lost two games since the last update but moved from "work to do" to "should be in"

Windyplayer · « **Reply #469 on:** February 23, 2018, 10:19:35 AM »

Quote from: JakeBarnes on February 23, 2018, 10:11:46 AM

The Bubble watch at the Athletic has us as barely in the conversation for now.

ESPN:
Someone needs to tell them that a 10-8 record would put us higher in the standings than most of their "should be in."

Ha, season sweeps of Seton Hall and Creighton with a handful of quality wins, a 10-8 record in arguably the best conference in the country, an enviable strength of schedule, and no bad losses...but, see if you can't get one or two more in the BE tourney.

Good grief. If any of these guys would sit down for 10 minutes and look a little deeper, we could do away with this nonsense.

EDIT: Thankfully, the committee SHOULD do just that.