Bubble Watch 2018

[brewcity77]

But what if we drop 1 of those 4 and replace it with a win and SHU or 2 creighton wins?

I believe that 9-9 gives us a very good chance regardless. If you look at the rest of the bubble, we would be 15-1 in Quadrant 2/3/4 games. No one else would have a better record in those quadrants and definitely no one would have better losses. If we take a loss say at St. John's or Georgetown but sweep Creighton, I think we're in.

If there end up being some ludicrous number of bid thieves, say 5-7, we might get left out at 9-9. But as long as it's a fairly regular year, we should be safe.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Lots of bubble action tonight:


Alabama (9 seed) @ Miss State

South Carolina @ Arkansas (10 seed)

TCU (8 seed; but loss drops them to 4-7 in B12) @ Kansas

Nebraska (first grouping of teams out) @ Minnesota

Missouri (10 seed) @ Ole Miss

Boise State (last 4 in) @ New Mexico


More fringe bubble games:

Baylor @ Okla State (both well behind cutline currently, but could play way back onto bubble)

BC @ Notre Dame (both long shots at this point)

UCF @ Cinci

Buffalo (potential bid stealer) @ Cent Mich

[Its DJOver]

Lots of bubble action tonight:

Nebraska (first grouping of teams out) @ Minnesota

[/b]

Isaac Copeland looks pretty smart right now jumping ship at Gtown when he did.  As long as they don't take a spot from us, It'd be cool to see Nebraska make it, and I think they will just because they'll be the fifth best team in the B14

[real chili 83]

With 7 games left, 5-2 is attainable, but not a certainty. 6 and 1 or 7 and 0 seem miles away.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Isaac Copeland looks pretty smart right now jumping ship at Gtown when he did.  As long as they don't take a spot from us, It'd be cool to see Nebraska make it, and I think they will just because they'll be the fifth best team in the B14

It's been discussed in the Becky thread at length so I won't go into too much depth, but I think Nebraska needs to go 5-1 in their last 6 games to feel good.  NCSOS was garbage and their best NC win was Boston College. Computer numbers are pretty meh.  They pass the eye test though - I think they're better than alot of teams around the bubble.

[LoudMouth]

Isaac Copeland looks pretty smart right now jumping ship at Gtown when he did.  As long as they don't take a spot from us, It'd be cool to see Nebraska make it, and I think they will just because they'll be the fifth best team in the B14

Incorrect, It would be much cooler to see every team in the Big10,11,12,13,14 be miserable and only get one auto-bid. This year is the closest we will ever get to that. Let's hope Nebraska and Maryland lose the rest and they laughably get 4 teams

[Its DJOver]

Incorrect, It would be much cooler to see every team in the Big10,11,12,13,14 be miserable and only get one auto-bid. This year is the closest we will ever get to that. Let's hope Nebraska and Maryland lose the rest and they laughably get 4 teams

That would be cool, but would never happen.  This year I don't see any way that the B14 doesn't get at least 5 teams, as poor as their SOS is, if they are the fifth best team in a P6 league, they'll get a bid, as undeserving as at may seem.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

That would be cool, but would never happen.  This year I don't see any way that the B14 doesn't get at least 5 teams, as poor as their SOS is, if they are the fifth best team in a P6 league, they'll get a bid, as undeserving as at may seem.

There is a very legit chance that that the B10 only gets 4 seeds.  There are only 6 teams in contention - Purdue, MSU, OSU and Michigan are in - Nebraska and Maryland are on the bubble.  I too think the one of those will get in, but I see basically no scenario where B10 gets more than 5 bids.  Those extra bids will be going to the SEC this year. 

[Its DJOver]

There is a very legit chance that that the B10 only gets 4 seeds.  There are only 6 teams in contention - Purdue, MSU, OSU and Michigan are in - Nebraska and Maryland are on the bubble.  I too think the one of those will get in, but I see basically no scenario where B10 gets more than 5 bids.  Those extra bids will be going to the SEC this year. 

Nebraska is done with the top four, and only plays one more game against teams that are.500 or better in conference, and that 6-6 Penn St at home.  They also still have Rutgers and Illinois who are combined 4-20 in conference.  Yes that's a lot of opportunities for bad losses but I think their path to the tourney is easier than ours.  Even if they only go 4-2 in their last six, I don't see a P6 team that went 12-6 in conference getting left out no matter how bad the B10 is this year.

[Babybluejeans]

ESPN's Bubble Watch is back: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22256337/bubble-watch-returns-competition-places-acc-sec

No surprises here. It has Nova and Xavier as "locks," and SHU as "should be in." Creighton, Butler, Providence, and Marquette are in the "work to do" category. About MU:

No Big East team better exemplifies the "work to do" label than Marquette, which has a long way to go before it will be considered solidly in the field. Still, a win at home against Seton Hall at least gives Marquette a cornerstone, of sorts. Now Marquette must build the edifice around it with, say, a win or two in upcoming road games at Seton Hall, St. John's and Creighton.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

ESPN's Bubble Watch is back: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22256337/bubble-watch-returns-competition-places-acc-sec

No surprises here. It has Nova and Xavier as "locks," and SHU as "should be in." Creighton, Butler, Providence, and Marquette are in the "work to do" category. About MU:

No Big East team better exemplifies the "work to do" label than Marquette, which has a long way to go before it will be considered solidly in the field. Still, a win at home against Seton Hall at least gives Marquette a cornerstone, of sorts. Now Marquette must build the edifice around it with, say, a win or two in upcoming road games at Seton Hall, St. John's and Creighton.

So Gasaway thinks MU is still alive if they go 1-2 in their next three.  Which, I would agree with, assuming they go 4-0 in the last 4. 

I also think Butler and Creighton have pretty much locked up their bids at this point.  They should be in the "should be in" category.

Nebraska is done with the top four, and only plays one more game against teams that are.500 or better in conference, and that 6-6 Penn St at home.  They also still have Rutgers and Illinois who are combined 4-20 in conference.  Yes that's a lot of opportunities for bad losses but I think their path to the tourney is easier than ours.  Even if they only go 4-2 in their last six, I don't see a P6 team that went 12-6 in conference getting left out no matter how bad the B10 is this year.

Ehh. Like I said, this has been discussed at length in the Becky thread.  Here are a few reasons Nebraska won't get in with a 4-2 (12-6) finish.

-Non con SOS of 272.  I think only a handful of teams have ever gotten an at large with a non con SOS that bad. 

-Their best noncon win is Boston college at home.  Their second best noncon win is Long Beach State. They lost to everyone else that is worth a damn - MSU, Creighton and Kansas - and a couple questionable losses in UCF and St. Johns.

-They played really easy mirror games in the B10.  Rutgers twice, Wisconsin twice, Penn State twice, Illinois twice, and Minnesota twice.  Didn't play anyone good 2x. 

-Their only league win worth a damn is at home vs. Michigan. They've lost to every other team that projects to be in the dance and have lost to three teams who don't have a prayer at the dance. 

-Their best two opportunities good wins the rest of the way is vs. Maryland (RPI: 55) and @ Minnesota (RPI: 119). A loss to Rutgers or Illinois would be disastrous. Heck, Minnesota has to be close to that category now.  Wins versus Indiana and Penn State aren't moving the needle.

-Computer numbers aren't good with their RPI and kenpom around 60 with basically no opportunities to improve those without going 5-1 or better. 

Moral of the story....they are about the most hollow 17-8 as possible in a power conference.  I tend to agree that I don't see the committee leaving out a 13-5 B10 team, but that requires 5-1 down the stretch.  I don't think they get in at 12-6 because they haven't beaten anyone, and a few decent opponents in noncon, the rest of their schedule was absolute dog sh*t.

[Its DJOver]

Ehh. Like I said, this has been discussed at length in the Becky thread.  Here are a few reasons Nebraska won't get in with a 4-2 (12-6) finish.

-Non con SOS of 272.  I think only a handful of teams have ever gotten an at large with a non con SOS that bad. 

-Their best noncon win is Boston college at home.  Their second best noncon win is Long Beach State. They lost to everyone else that is worth a damn - MSU, Creighton and Kansas - and a couple questionable losses in UCF and St. Johns.

-They played really easy mirror games in the B10.  Rutgers twice, Wisconsin twice, Penn State twice, Illinois twice, and Minnesota twice.  Didn't play anyone good 2x. 

-Their only league win worth a damn is at home vs. Michigan. They've lost to every other team that projects to be in the dance and have lost to three teams who don't have a prayer at the dance. 

-Their best two opportunities good wins the rest of the way is vs. Maryland (RPI: 55) and @ Minnesota (RPI: 119). A loss to Rutgers or Illinois would be disastrous. Heck, Minnesota has to be close to that category now.  Wins versus Indiana and Penn State aren't moving the needle.

-Computer numbers aren't good with their RPI and kenpom around 60 with basically no opportunities to improve those without going 5-1 or better. 

Moral of the story....they are about the most hollow 17-8 as possible in a power conference.  I tend to agree that I don't see the committee leaving out a 13-5 B10 team, but that requires 5-1 down the stretch.  I don't think they get in at 12-6 because they haven't beaten anyone, and a few decent opponents in noncon, the rest of their schedule was absolute dog sh*t.

Won't disagree that their out of conference SOS is bad, but they can't control who they get as doubles in conference, so it would be harsh to punish them for that.  St. Johns is really their only bad loss considering Palm has UCF in his first four out.  Historically weak B10, historically weak bubble, a marquee win (It only takes one) and passing the eye test should have them dancing with a 4-2 finish.   

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Won't disagree that their out of conference SOS is bad, but they can't control who they get as doubles in conference, so it would be harsh to punish them for that.  St. Johns is really their only bad loss considering Palm has UCF in his first four out.  Historically weak B10, historically weak bubble, a marquee win (It only takes one) and passing the eye test should have them dancing with a 4-2 finish.   

You're right, they aren't in control of who they play 2x in conference.  But the committee can certainly punish them for it.  Just like they punish teams every year for playing piss poor schedules.  If they wanted to dance, they should have actually beaten the good teams on their schedule, which they didn't.

If you think Nebraska is dancing at 12-6, you surely think Marquette is a stone cold lock at 9-9.

FWIW, at 4-2 assuming losses @ Minnesota and vs. Maryland, the two games they have the lowest projected probability to win, gives them an RPI of 60 and SOS of 103 heading into B10 tournament.  MU's numbers would be significantly better at any combo of 9-9.

[Its DJOver]

You're right, they aren't in control of who they play 2x in conference.  But the committee can certainly punish them for it.  Just like they punish teams every year for playing piss poor schedules.  If they wanted to dance, they should have actually beaten the good teams on their schedule, which they didn't.

If you think Nebraska is dancing at 12-6, you surely think Marquette is a stone cold lock at 9-9.

FWIW, at 4-2 assuming losses @ Minnesota and vs. Maryland, the two games they have the lowest projected probability to win, gives them an RPI of 60 and SOS of 103 heading into B10 tournament.  MU's numbers would be significantly better at any combo of 9-9.

I wouldn't use the term stone cold lock, but I think 9-9 gets us in, and keeps us out of Dayton

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I wouldn't use the term stone cold lock, but I think 9-9 gets us in, and keeps us out of Dayton

Yah, that was a bit of an exaggeration.  But yah, I tend to agree.  4 days ago I thought 9-9 may keep MU out of Dayton, at this point, I am more resigned to the fact that Dayton may be in the cards should we get to 9-9.

In any event, its going to be really interesting to see how the committee values and ranks these teams.  Because after about the top 30-35 teams (8/9 seeds), things get really ugly in a hurry in terms of actual resumes. 

[wisblue]

The inaugural edition of the Bubble Watch on si.com does a pretty good job of summing up MU's situation, including the last sentence:

"The Golden Eagles have taken a nosedive of late, losing four straight games to fall to 4-7 in the Big East. There’s no shame in losing to Xavier, Villanova, Butler or Providence, but this was Marquette’s opportunity to prove it belonged in the field of 68, especially with the latter three of those games at home. It has just three games remaining in the regular season against likely tournament teams and two of those are on the road at Seton Hall and Creighton. They’ll need to win at least one of those—and possibly the home game with Creighton, as well—plus handle business in games with St. John’s, DePaul and Georgetown to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. The chances of all of that happening are slim."

Another perspective on this comes from the rpiforecast site. After the win over Seton Hall, that site projected MU's likely conference mark at 10-8. After losing 5 of the last 6, including 3 home games, that projection has fallen to 7-11. They put MU's chances of reaching 9-9 or better at just 15%. Add in the possibility of winning a game or two in BET and that probability would drop down to 5% or less.

So, there is a chance, but not a good one, and that chance could be completely gone before the next home game.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The inaugural edition of the Bubble Watch on si.com does a pretty good job of summing up MU's situation, including the last sentence:

"The Golden Eagles have taken a nosedive of late, losing four straight games to fall to 4-7 in the Big East. There’s no shame in losing to Xavier, Villanova, Butler or Providence, but this was Marquette’s opportunity to prove it belonged in the field of 68, especially with the latter three of those games at home. It has just three games remaining in the regular season against likely tournament teams and two of those are on the road at Seton Hall and Creighton. They’ll need to win at least one of those—and possibly the home game with Creighton, as well—plus handle business in games with St. John’s, DePaul and Georgetown to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. The chances of all of that happening are slim."

Another perspective on this comes from the rpiforecast site. After the win over Seton Hall, that site projected MU's likely conference mark at 10-8. After losing 5 of the last 6, including 3 home games, that projection has fallen to 7-11. They put MU's chances of reaching 9-9 or better at just 15%. Add in the possibility of winning a game or two in BET and that probability would drop down to 5% or less.

So, there is a chance, but not a good one, and that chance could be completely gone before the next home game.

I think that is fair, he basically says they need to go 6-1 to feel really good, and 5-2 to have a shot.  Which is pretty much exactly what a group of us have been saying for weeks (ie: 10-8 is a lock; 9-9 gives you a good chance).

[wisblue]

I think that is fair, he basically says they need to go 5-1 to feel really good, and 4-2 to have a shot.  Which is pretty much exactly what a group of us have been saying for weeks (ie: 10-8 is a lock; 9-9 gives you a good chance).

I think the big change is that for weeks (and as recently as just before the Butler game) 10-8 or 9-9 looked like a reasonably attainable goal. Now it looks like a long shot, and it's hard to get too excited about the possibility until MU wins at least one more game to show that they aren't in a death spiral.

[BM1090]

I think the big change is that for weeks (and as recently as just before the Butler game) 10-8 or 9-9 looked like a reasonably attainable goal. Now it looks like a long shot, and it's hard to get too excited about the possibility until MU wins at least one more game to show that they aren't in a death spiral.

Yep this is where I'm at. We need to win 1 of the next 2. I really, truly believe we win our last 4 games. I think we matchup well with Creighton and beat them at home. And I think SJU at home is a win and GT and DP just are not very good.

If we can somehow find a way to win tomorrow I really believe we will make the tournament. I just think it's very unlikely and @ SJU is not a gimme.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think the big change is that for weeks (and as recently as just before the Butler game) 10-8 or 9-9 looked like a reasonably attainable goal. Now it looks like a long shot, and it's hard to get too excited about the possibility until MU wins at least one more game to show that they aren't in a death spiral.

Obviously. I'm not sure I call 9-9 a complete long shot, but 10-8 is. We've played really good teams 9 of the last 10 games and went 3-7.  We play really good teams 3 of the next 7. I think 5-2 is reasonably attainable, but obviously we need to play better ball then we have since the 9 day layoff.

[Its DJOver]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the committee also look at how you've played recently?  So if we were to get to 9-9 we would have finished 5-2, and be a team that is trending upwards.  I realize that they would also look and see that a lot of those wins would likely come against non tournament teams, but Beast wins are Beast wins.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the committee also look at how you've played recently?  So if we were to get to 9-9 we would have finished 5-2, and be a team that is trending upwards.  I realize that they would also look and see that a lot of those wins would likely come against non tournament teams, but Beast wins are Beast wins.

I know that they have in the past, but not sure if still a part of their analysis. It doesn't appear to show on the team sheets.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracket-beat/2017-03-03/what-team-sheet-inside-march-madness-selection-tool

In any event, if MU finish 5-2, gets the 7 seed and goes 1-1 in the BET, they'll be 6-4 in their last 10.  Not sure that trend is enough to give them much of a boost.  All of MU's boost is going to be a great SOS and a pretty good RPI and Kenpom considering the record.  And theoretically no bad losses.

[nyg]

Yep this is where I'm at. We need to win 1 of the next 2. I really, truly believe we win our last 4 games. I think we matchup well with Creighton and beat them at home. And I think SJU at home is a win and GT and DP just are not very good.

If we can somehow find a way to win tomorrow I really believe we will make the tournament. I just think it's very unlikely and @ SJU is not a gimme.

Creighton will be a terrible matchup.  Howard and Rowsey vs Thomas and Foster.  If Wojo puts Sacar on one of them, then either Howard or Rowsey goes against Mintz or another SF.  Worst guard matchups all year for MU. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Creighton will be a terrible matchup.  Howard and Rowsey vs Thomas and Foster.  If Wojo puts Sacar on one of them, then either Howard or Rowsey goes against Mintz or another SF.  Worst guard matchups all year for MU.

Yeah but they don't really have anybody that can abuse MU in the paint.  Which is generally prior to the PC game where we've gotten killed.

[brewcity77]

That would be cool, but would never happen.  This year I don't see any way that the B14 doesn't get at least 5 teams, as poor as their SOS is, if they are the fifth best team in a P6 league, they'll get a bid, as undeserving as at may seem.

Maryland's resume right now is terrible. Their RPI is okay, but their SOS is weak and they only have one current Quadrant 1/2 win. That's worse than anyone else on the bubble by far. They also don't project to play any more Quadrant 1 games (though Michigan at home is really close). They likely need to win out to get an at-large.

Nebraska is in a similar boat. No Q1 wins and no more opportunities. In fact, as things currently project, they only play one more Q2 game, and that's Maryland. Nebraska might be able to sneak in if they go 5-1 with the only loss to Maryland, but even at 13-5 they would clearly behind a team like Boise State that surprisingly has a much stronger resume despite the conference disparity.

In 2008, the Big 10 only got 4 bids. I think there's a real chance they match that this year unless Nebraska or Maryland win out. Of course, the problem there is they do play each other, so one will have to lose.