Bubble Watch 2018

[injuryBug]

RPI is flawed in that it really helps the mid major look a lot better than they are.


OK St has bad numbers but they are a team that looks like a tournament team

[LoudMouth]

So if we don't see Arizona State and Baylor' s name early in the broadcast, we have a pretty good chance?

Great point! What are the teams we need to get bypassed for us to be getting more excited towards the “M” section....alphabeticaly please 

[auburnmarquette]

It was Halls drop. I’ve said it before...I don’t think the quadrants are that concrete. I hope committee is intelligent enough to evaluate wins separately and not vastly change their analysis based on 5-10 point swings in RPI. Per the committee chair, the quadrants were just released to provide more clarity to the general public as to what the committee values. No actual criteria has changed.

That said, I am not feeling great. I think there is a chance that we are one of the surprise teams they include, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I think this team deserves one of the last few bids, but this season, there are going to be 5-7 worthy teams playing in the NIT. That usually isn’t the case.

We will know in 36 hours.

Agree with you and selection chair (from Creighton) said as much - these are categories to start the conversation.

So the Creighton wins will be viewed as almost quad 1. The problem is the flip side - the quad 1 wins we have are not going to be as strong as some other teams quad 1 wins because we didn't beat any high quad 1 teams. That's where last year's team had an edge - they beat Nova. We showed we could beat teams in the high quad 2 to low quad 1. Does that hold up against a team with less quad 1 wins but a top 10 victory?

I believe our away from home record is the biggest trump card - but 4 quad 1 wins and maybe a road win over big east tournament champ if Nova cools off tonight would be nice.

[MUBigDance]

So if we don't see Arizona State and Baylor' s name early in the broadcast, we have a pretty good chance?

Speaking of the broadcast, does anyone know the nitty gritty mechanics of it? I know they will announce the 68 teams first but will they be alphabetical...or by seed...will they announce the first 20 and go to commercial? Etc... I know the matchups come last..,but curious how we will be fed the info.

Also if it’s by seed do you think they save the Dayton teams for the end of the first set? I wonder if they get to the 13s without MU weather I should feel dread.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Speaking of the broadcast, does anyone know the nitty gritty mechanics of it? I know they will announce the 68 teams first but will they be alphabetical...or by seed...will they announce the first 20 and go to commercial? Etc... I know the matchups come last..,but curious how we will be fed the info.

Also if it’s by seed do you think they save the Dayton teams for the end of the first set? I wonder if they get to the 13s without MU weather I should feel dread.

Alphabetical is what I read.

[cheebs09]

Great point! What are the teams we need to get bypassed for us to be getting more excited towards the “M” section....alphabeticaly please 

Louisville. I think they will do automatic and then at large. Each alphabetically.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Kansas St
Kentucky (unless they win SEC)
Louisville (bubble)
Marquette (bubble)
Miami

[fjm]

Kansas St
Kentucky (unless they win SEC)
Louisville (bubble)
Marquette (bubble)
Miami

I'm assuming you're listing this as how it would come up during the announcement tomorrow correct?

[auburnmarquette]

I'm assuming you're listing this as how it would come up during the announcement tomorrow correct?

Yes, but if they skip Louisville and go straight to Marquette I'd be thrilled :-)

With Alabama moving ahead of us, Palm has us playing St. Mary's in Dayton.

If that happened it would make the second straight year Marquette faced the top www.valueaddbasketball.com player in their first game (I had Thornwell from South Carolina first last year), though I believe no. 2 ayton of Arizona likely passed landale after the double and triple teams shut landale down in St Mary's tournament.

[muguru]

It sucks that they are doing it alphabetically because there aren't many bubble teams that are alphabetically before MU..Baylor and Louisville I guess which wont really tell us anything..I'm more interested in teams like St Marys, Oklahoma, and Middle Tenn St. Now that would tell us something..but of course they are all alphabetically after MU.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

Not sure if it really helps, but if Vermont pulls off this win they’re in the tourney and that gives us another win over a tournament team. Not sure how important number of wins over tournament teams is.

[fjm]

Dance card has updated today. Has us in by 3 spots with a 100% rating for the last 10 NCAA tourneys.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[Babybluejeans]

So assuming Alabama is a lock and there are no more bid thieves, we're competing with Baylor, Louisville, Syracuse, St Marys, Oklahoma, and Middle Tenn St.? And for how many spots?

[PGsHeroes32]

Vermont blows

[#UnleashSean]

That Vermont lose hurts right?

[Silkk the Shaka]

Dance card has updated today. Has us in by 3 spots with a 100% rating for the last 10 NCAA tourneys.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

I like it, but Syracuse & Louisville are also at 99%+, so at least a couple teams with historically good resumes will be left out. Also, not sure how much this caveat/disclaimer matters:

"The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years."

[BM1090]

Hurts our RPI a bit but they are still safely inside q2 range

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

That Vermont lose hurts right?

Not really

[RideMyBuycks]

Not really

Widely accepted they’re not being considered for an at-large I believe

[GooooMarquette]

Dance card has updated today. Has us in by 3 spots with a 100% rating for the last 10 NCAA tourneys.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Can't recall anyone else thinking we have a (slightly) better shot than Creighton.  Most seem to list CU as an 8 or 9, and MU right on the edge.

[#UnleashSean]

Dance card has updated today. Has us in by 3 spots with a 100% rating for the last 10 NCAA tourneys.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

They've only had like 9 incorrect picks in the last 6 years. Looks good for mu.

[WarriorDad]

Gotta weight 5 years ta no, hey?

Tony Bennett at Virginia

Year 1 No NCAA
Year 2 No NAA
Year 3 NCAA, first round loss
Year 4 NIT


Conversely, Kevin Ollie

Year one  Post Season Inelibile
Year two  NCAA champions
Year three NIT
Year four  NCAA
Year five  No NCAA
Year six  No NCAA fired

[Billy Hoyle]

two bid stealers playing today in the A10. URI and St. Bonaventure are locks.

[BM1090]

two bid stealers playing today in the A10. URI and St. Bonaventure are locks.

And Memphis in the AAC. I think that's it for potential bid stealers. I suppose you could say USC in the Pac 12 but I'd imagine they are in regardless now

[wisblue]

Speaking of the broadcast, does anyone know the nitty gritty mechanics of it? I know they will announce the 68 teams first but will they be alphabetical...or by seed...will they announce the first 20 and go to commercial? Etc... I know the matchups come last..,but curious how we will be fed the info.

Also if it’s by seed do you think they save the Dayton teams for the end of the first set? I wonder if they get to the 13s without MU weather I should feel dread.

What I saw is that they will first list the 32 automatic bids, alphabetically by conference. Obviously no surprises there for people who have been paying attention. Then they will announce the 36 at large teams alphabetically. They said the 68 teams would be revealed in the first 10 minutes, so they shouldn't have too many breaks before that.

My personal bubble list has 9 teams playing for 2 spots. Those 2 spots could disappear if there are bid thieves in the A10 and AAC. So, I'm rooting for Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, and Cincinnati today.

My 9 bubble teams listed alphabetically are Arizona State, Baylor, Louisville, Marquette, Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, St. Mary's, and Syracuse.

So hearing either Arizona State or Baylor would be bad, and hearing both might be fatal. If Kentucky doesn't win the SEC I think that might be the last team before Louisville (which I don't want to hear. If you hear Miami and not Marquette it's time to wait for the NIT pairings.