Bubble Watch 2018

[GrimmReaper33]

And what has any of St Mary’s, Nevada, Middle Tennessee done to prove they are capable of a final 4 run?

About the same as Marquette has.  If you take MU completely out of the equation I would rather see St Marys, Nevada, MTSU, etc. make it over Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisville, Syracuse, etc. or any major conference team that has MU's resume that is not MU.

I just like to see some of those teams get a shot.  Their conferences may suck but that's not really their fault and no major conference team has the balls to travel to their place during the non con, so I like to see them get a chance over major conference teams that can't even break .500 in their league. 

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

So are we in??

[skianth16]

Or you can let a team like Cuse in when everyone says they lost too much

And they make the final 4.

I want battle tested teams getting at larges.

Love mid majors who earn their bids

But a mid-major who  won 27 games with a top 20 non-con SOS hasn't earned their bid? A team with a top 20 RPI and KenPom? It's a tough line to draw between high majors who played and lost tough games versus mid-majors who won 12-14 conference games, but at the end of the day, the numbers shake out the way they do for a reason.

[brewcity77]

Nevada has an RPI of 11 and SOS of 63. They will make it in with room to spare.

Not so sure on St. Mary's and MTSU. I would leave both out personally.

I've been hoping to see Nevada opposite us on a 6/7 line. No way they get left out with that RPI.

[PGsHeroes32]

But a mid-major who  won 27 games with a top 20 non-con SOS hasn't earned their bid? A team with a top 20 RPI and KenPom? It's a tough line to draw between high majors who played and lost tough games versus mid-majors who won 12-14 conference games, but at the end of the day, the numbers shake out the way they do for a reason.

No they didn’t earn their bid.

They haven’t beaten anyone outside Rhode Island that’s worth even mentioning.

[PGsHeroes32]

About the same as Marquette has.  If you take MU completely out of the equation I would rather see St Marys, Nevada, MTSU, etc. make it over Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisville, Syracuse, etc. or any major conference team that has MU's resume that is not MU.

I just like to see some of those teams get a shot.  Their conferences may suck but that's not really their fault and no major conference team has the balls to travel to their place during the non con, so I like to see them get a chance over major conference teams that can't even break .500 in their league.

Alabama? Much more capable of a run

They also beat the same team that qualifies as Nevadas lone good win.

[RushmoreAcademy]

So are we in??

#donedeal

[auburnmarquette]

#donedeal

Bottom line is the humans do not have us in and the computers do have us in.

Analytic models built to predict the committee selections (SOR, Dance Card) have Marquette easily in.

However, the humans (with a few exceptions like Palm and 19 of 106 brackets in the matrix) have us out and in the case of many like Lunardi and Fox Sports Howard Schwab don't even have us in the next four out.

I'm rooting for Palm and the computers!

[auburnmarquette]

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/03/waiting-in-auburn-in-mu-jersey-for-noon.html

With USC blowing Oregon out, Alabama winning big today and Nevada losing to let a bid be stolen, I’d update my cracked sidewalks table to say we are now one of 11 teams vying for four spots. Getting pretty tight.

That would mean with no other spoilers, we’d need the committee to pick us over 7 of these teams:

Arizona State, Baylor, Louisville, MTSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Saint Mary’s, Syracuse and UCLA.
Hope Strength of Record and Dance Card, and Jerry Palm are right and – like last year – we are actually ahead of where most predictors believe we are.

[LoudMouth]

Wearing my blue and gold goggles....we are still the last team in behind Louisville, Oklahoma and UCLA

[source?]

Bottom line is the humans do not have us in and the computers do have us in.

Analytic models built to predict the committee selections (SOR, Dance Card) have Marquette easily in.

However, the humans (with a few exceptions like Palm and 19 of 106 brackets in the matrix) have us out and in the case of many like Lunardi and Fox Sports Howard Schwab don't even have us in the next four out.

I'm rooting for Palm and the computers!

I, for one, welcome our machine overlords.

[muguru]

Wearing my blue and gold goggles....we are still the last team in behind Louisville, Oklahoma and UCLA

Still not sure what Louisville has done to deserve a bid. Their road record is putrid, and they have beaten exactly...No one. I'm telling you, there are always a team or two that get left out that the bracketologists and general public assumed were in, and a team or two that the same group thought were out that get in. But...MU did lose a Q1 win with Creighton's RPI drop, so that hurts.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Still not sure what Louisville has done to deserve a bid. Their road record is putrid, and they have beaten exactly...No one. I'm telling you, there are always a team or two that get left out that the bracketologists and general public assumed were in, and a team or two that the same group thought were out that get in. But...MU did lose a Q1 win with Creighton's RPI drop, so that hurts.

It was Halls drop. I’ve said it before...I don’t think the quadrants are that concrete. I hope committee is intelligent enough to evaluate wins separately and not vastly change their analysis based on 5-10 point swings in RPI. Per the committee chair, the quadrants were just released to provide more clarity to the general public as to what the committee values. No actual criteria has changed.

That said, I am not feeling great. I think there is a chance that we are one of the surprise teams they include, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I think this team deserves one of the last few bids, but this season, there are going to be 5-7 worthy teams playing in the NIT. That usually isn’t the case.

We will know in 36 hours.

[4everwarriors]

So are we in??

Gotta weight 5 years ta no, hey?

[IrwinFletcher]

Still not sure what Louisville has done to deserve a bid. Their road record is putrid, and they have beaten exactly...No one. I'm telling you, there are always a team or two that get left out that the bracketologists and general public assumed were in, and a team or two that the same group thought were out that get in. But...MU did lose a Q1 win with Creighton's RPI drop, so that hurts.

Louisville’s signature wins are at #56 Florida St and neutral site vs. #56 Florida St.

6-8 road/neutral record.

5-13 Q1/2 record.

39 RPI helps them.

[MUBigDance]

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/03/waiting-in-auburn-in-mu-jersey-for-noon.html

With USC blowing Oregon out, Alabama winning big today and Nevada losing to let a bid be stolen, I’d update my cracked sidewalks table to say we are now one of 11 teams vying for four spots. Getting pretty tight.

That would mean with no other spoilers, we’d need the committee to pick us over 7 of these teams:

Arizona State, Baylor, Louisville, MTSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Saint Mary’s, Syracuse and UCLA.
Hope Strength of Record and Dance Card, and Jerry Palm are right and – like last year – we are actually ahead of where most predictors believe we are.

Thanks. Was looking for a post that narrowed down the field to a concise set. My head was spinning.

Also, so Nevada is in or no? Not in the list. Is it assumed it gets an at-large.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Nevada is a stone cold lock

[fjm]

Not losing hope:
As of this morning Espn resume has us as an 11 seed:👍🏼
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/2


This algorithm which has been very correct in the past has us as the last team in:😳😕🤞🏼

http://hoopshd.com/nitty-gritty-rankings/

[muwarrior69]

Nevada is a stone cold lock

Has a Power 6 conference ever had a team seeded 12 or lower (ie 12-16)? I ask since you are our basketball sage.

[DegenerateDish]

Most of this doesn't matter until conference tournaments start. Rather than focusing on nightly matchups, better perspective is how bubble teams roads in their conference tournament lineup. The real concern is if a team like Northwestern, San Diego St, or Oregon win their conference tournaments.

I wish I would have been wrong about SDSU.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Not losing hope:
As of this morning Espn resume has us as an 11 seed:👍🏼
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/2


This algorithm which has been very correct in the past has us as the last team in:😳😕🤞🏼

http://hoopshd.com/nitty-gritty-rankings/

Regarding the last link - not sure what about Louisville and Baylor’s resume puts them ahead of MU. Louisville has a shiny RPI but they haven’t beaten anybody. USC resume isn’t impressive either. Only top 50 wins are nuetral court against New Mexico State and Middle Tenn.

[fjm]

Regarding the last link - not sure what about Louisville and Baylor’s resume puts them ahead of MU. Louisville has a shiny RPI but they haven’t beaten anybody. USC resume isn’t impressive either. Only top 50 wins are nuetral court against New Mexico State and Middle Tenn.

The first link on espn... it's amazing how far ahead we should be of some of the teams that pundits have in front of us. SOS:12, RPI 50's, NONCON SOS:31

There are teams with numbers in the 200's with fewer Q1-2 wins ahead of us getting in. It's nauseating.

[lawdog77]

So if we don't see Arizona State and Baylor' s name early in the broadcast, we have a pretty good chance?

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Has a Power 6 conference ever had a team seeded 12 or lower (ie 12-16)? I ask since you are our basketball sage.

TAMU got a 12 seed and beat Gerry McNamara lead Syracuse.

Georgia got a 14 seed when they got an auto bid in the crazy tornado year.

[muguru]

https://twitter.com/TheAndyKatz/status/972504244996755458?s=20