Bubble Watch 2018

[PGsHeroes32]

I believe MTSU non conference schedule rates pretty strong. Looking at it, you can tell they tried.

They beat 0 at large teams.

That’s bad

[Mr. Nielsen]

Already hate Bama football...guess I'll add bball to the list now...

It's like your in my mind. Or is that all the Roll Tide's, I will hear on the Finebaum Show.

[muguru]

Think Bama was in after their win yesterday..don't think this affects MU. Still don't think they are getting in regardless, but IF they do..felt all along it would be at the expense of someone most thought were in awhile ago..but aren't..like Saint Mary's, like Louisville, like NC State..every year there is a school or 2 that doesn't get in that everyone assumes would..and a school or 2 that get in that most weren't giving much thought to..like MU this year.

[BM1090]

I believe MTSU non conference schedule rates pretty strong. Looking at it, you can tell they tried.

Nah. The best team they scheduled was Vanderbilt. Also played USC, Miami and Auburn in events but lost all 3.

[GGGG]

Think Bama was in after their win yesterday..don't think this affects MU. Still don't think they are getting in regardless, but IF they do..felt all along it would be at the expense of someone most thought were in awhile ago..but aren't..like Saint Mary's, like Louisville, like NC State..every year there is a school or 2 that doesn't get in that everyone assumes would..and a school or 2 that get in that most weren't giving much thought to..like MU this year.

Bracket matrix is usually a pretty good guide.  About half the time, they are spot on - like last year.

The other half they chose a team seemingly out of it prior to the selection.  For instance in 2016, Vandy and Tulsa got into the tournament.  Tulsa jumped over 10 schools in BM's final poll and Vandy jumped 5.

The bad news is that if it has truly come to that, Marquette will be lucky to get into the play-in game.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Nah. The best team they scheduled was Vanderbilt. Also played USC, Miami and Auburn in events but lost all 3.

@Murray State, Belmont and home and home in the same season vs FGCU.

[muguru]

Bracket matrix is usually a pretty good guide.  About half the time, they are spot on - like last year.

The other half they chose a team seemingly out of it prior to the selection.  For instance in 2016, Vandy and Tulsa got into the tournament.  Tulsa jumped over 10 schools in BM's final poll and Vandy jumped 5.

The bad news is that if it has truly come to that, Marquette will be lucky to get into the play-in game.

I'm honestly okay with a #1 seed in the NIT ONLY because it means home games(which I can attend) and most importantly..theoretically it means the season won't end as soon..I'm ok with that.

[BM1090]

@Murray State, Belmont and home and home in the same season vs FGCU.

They scheduled some good low majors. That counts for a little bit. Shouldn't count for enough, in my opinion. They had 3 cracks at tournament teams. They failed each time and racked up some bad losses too.

[muguru]

Bracket matrix is usually a pretty good guide.  About half the time, they are spot on - like last year.

The other half they chose a team seemingly out of it prior to the selection.  For instance in 2016, Vandy and Tulsa got into the tournament.  Tulsa jumped over 10 schools in BM's final poll and Vandy jumped 5.

The bad news is that if it has truly come to that, Marquette will be lucky to get into the play-in game.

Then again..for all we know, MU could have already been voted into the field...or..conversely it could turn out they weren't even as close as some thought..we just don't know what the committee thinks.

[Mr. Nielsen]

They scheduled some good low majors. That counts for a little bit. Shouldn't count for enough, in my opinion. They had 3 cracks at tournament teams. They failed each time and racked up some bad losses too.

I think you arguing something I'm not saying.

[WayOfTheWarrior]

It's like your in my mind. Or is that all the Roll Tide's, I will hear on the Finebaum Show.

In my high school football days our mascot was the Patriots and we always would psych ourselves up by yelling "ROLL TIDE!" over and over again. Looking back, it made no sense at all!

Also now that I realize we represented the two most HATED football organizations AT THE SAME TIME in an act of utter ignorance, I have never felt more ashamed of anything in my life... 



250th post - "LOOK at me!...I am the Captain now..."

[fjm]

FWIW Dance Card had us with a 4 team buffer this morning and Alabama was already ahead of us.

Does this mean anything? Not really but it keeps me hopeful.

[BM1090]

I think you arguing something I'm not saying.

Think you're correct after re-reading what you said.

[BM1090]

FWIW Dance Card had us with a 4 team buffer this morning and Alabama was already ahead of us.

Does this mean anything? Not really but it keeps me hopeful.

It's no less accurate than other bracketologists. So it means as much as anything else we're discussing!

There are definitely projections that have us in. So there will be a chance for sure.

ESPN's Strength of Resume, which claims to be the most accurate predictor, has us safely in as a 10 seed.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/2

[LAMUfan]

They scheduled some good low majors. That counts for a little bit. Shouldn't count for enough, in my opinion. They had 3 cracks at tournament teams. They failed each time and racked up some bad losses too.

So we played more #1 seeds than they played tourney teams, 5 v 3, maybe 6 with Purdue

[MUfan12]

This is interesting... he took the RPI and Quadrant system and turned it into a ranking tool-

http://hoopshd.com/nitty-gritty-rankings/

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

This is interesting... he took the RPI and Quadrant system and turned it into a ranking tool-

http://hoopshd.com/nitty-gritty-rankings/

Very interesting.  Especially when you read the narrative at the top.  Sounds like this guy's formula usually nails the teams that are seen as outliers.  He currently has us 8 teams from the cutline. 

[auburnmarquette]

It's no less accurate than other bracketologists. So it means as much as anything else we're discussing!

There are definitely projections that have us in. So there will be a chance for sure.

ESPN's Strength of Resume, which claims to be the most accurate predictor, has us safely in as a 10 seed.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/2

Yes, the piece from last year on Nate Silver's blog made that case.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/

That post had us 41st in SOR - one spot worse than we are this year - and of course we did get a 10-seed.  Last year it gave us an 88.6 percent chance of making the tournament - though that was based to a lesser degree on other ratings such as KenPom that is not supposed to be a factor.

[Silkk the Shaka]

This is interesting... he took the RPI and Quadrant system and turned it into a ranking tool-

http://hoopshd.com/nitty-gritty-rankings/

This is awesome thank you. I love the internet. Biggest wild card indeed is how the new quadrants will factor in.

[BM1090]

Yes, the piece from last year on Nate Silver's blog made that case.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/

That post had us 41st in SOR - one spot worse than we are this year - and of course we did get a 10-seed.  Last year it gave us an 88.6 percent chance of making the tournament - though that was based to a lesser degree on other ratings such as KenPom that is not supposed to be a factor.

This is it, thanks. So Strength of Record this year has us safely in. We'll see.

[muwarrior69]

USA today has us playing St. Mary's in Dayton.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2018/02/08/march-madness-2018-ncaa-tournament-bracketology/318678002/

[NickelDimer]

A little off topic but if we get a Dayton draw does anyone know when we will know what day/time we would play?

[peterpan]

A little off topic but if we get a Dayton draw does anyone know when we will know what day/time we would play?

Tuesday/Wednesday at night. Doubleheaders. 

Edit: misread lol

[BM1090]

Do we think St. Bonaventure could get left out with a loss? They don't really have great wins at all.

Wondering if I should cheer for Richmond and put all my eggs in the URI basket or go ahead and cheer for St Bonaventure.

[Dr. Blackheart]

ABD?